Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1669. GatorWX
Quoting 1665. stormpetrol:
Barbados has winds of 18mph out of the west.


I don't think some people realize 97 is still NE of Barbados. That makes sense though and I tend to agree despite its appearance on sat.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1668. vis0
CREDIT: NASA (Post ed. WV + EnhIR blend WV slightly contrasted to present anemic vapor on the wispy level.)

1]WV IR blend 201308-31;1945_201309-01;1145U

2]WV IR blend 201309-01;1145_201309-01;2145U

As Mon. 201309-02 comes along ml-d settles back (outer areas towards inward-NYc) to settings (explained in this blog)
i know Dr. Masters created a new blog i post by matching file creation to blog date not in being on the latest blog.
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Link
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I think 97L circulation is tightening up
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Barbados has winds of 18mph out of the west.
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1664. guygee
Sunday morning (re)reading:

I’ve often said that the evidence for actual periodic (or even pseudoperiodic) behavior in ocean cycles is sketchy at best. What are usually quoted as periods are better referred to as characteristic time scales. Furthermore, it’s all too easy to misinterpret period analysis (usually in the form of spectral analysis) even when estimating the values of, or assessing the existence of, characteristic time scales.

I don’t deny the existence of fluctuations (which I regard as a better description). Nor do I claim that they don’t show characteristic time scales — just that the evidence is often sketchy at best. As far as being actually periodic (in the sense that knowledge of the last few “cycles” enables us to make some useful prediction of the next, or the next few, “cycles”, I believe that they’re not. ...)
in "8,000 years of AMO?"
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1663. GatorWX



This sure is a tricky one!
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1662. JRRP
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't say the intensity models aren't excited.
A TD in 24 hours !! Models are quite excited, NHC, quite a different story...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1007
1660. hydrus
Quoting 1636. LargoFl:
this could be dangerous in a week huh..some models have it going north thru DR and Cuba..others take it into the gulf..i do hope that blocking HIGH is still around then.
A few of the folks here, including me, have said Florida would be in the path of many of the invests, storms , hurricanes this year. I believe that that prediction is going to present itself.
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yea...watch wind speed and direction.....was west, then southwest and actually started turn southerly ...but the last few updates have tried to bend back from the west/sw...and pressure which has leveled out ...i think a coc is trying to get better defined to the NNE of the island, directly west of Martinique...


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Quoting 1656. moonlightcowboy:
The reason for little model support is simply that the circulation is quite broad with no tight, low-level center in which to initialize. Mods are out for now, only obs/reasoning apply, but the system is vigorous, and imo, still a potential threat. It's September, and it's it'll be in the Caribbean, nothing to be taken lightly.
u are 100% right!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100956
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Quoting 1651. Sfloridacat5:
12z NAM at 84 hours
Interacting with Haiti/D.R. - which could be the death of 97L.
MAYBE NOT
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100956
Quoting 1373. prcane4you:
Beautiful island YES.Lovely people forget it.

Respecfully disagree. Btw, GFS seems to be nailing it in terms of track.
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1653. LargoFl
Quoting 1642. allancalderini:
Would probably move near Cuba or Yucatan and then into the US.
yes this time of year especially sept Florida needs to be extra cautious with these storms..watching this one closely...
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Quoting 1637. Sfloridacat5:
12z NAM at 51 hours. Looks like it want to develop something in the GOM?
The gulf area is from the wave thats been persistent in the N/W Careabean
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12z NAM at 84 hours
Interacting with Haiti/D.R. - which could be the death of 97L.
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1650. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1633. eddiedollar:
From what I saw its recording SE winds.
that surf break is soup bowls. I have surfed it many times. It's LIVE camera. Don't know if you need to be a member to get the live stream.
The wind is blowing off the tops of the waves offshore.
That means the wind is WSW.
Simple as that. And it's much stronger than it was at daybreak.
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Quoting 1628. beell:


And a staid, pedestrian explanation...

Atmopheric Optics/Wes Cowley
Hey, I think that's pretty magical... lol ... nice to feel I captured the sunrise, even if there was no sun to be seen....
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1647. LargoFl
Models are all over the place til it developes....
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Quoting 1579. hurricane23:


Nothing there hydrus..i really dont know what to make of the season in all honesty. Things can change quickly in the tropics and iam still in favor for an uptick in activtity soon.

we shall see :0(
Oh man, exactly what I did not want to wake up and see, duelling centers.
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Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2843
Tired with the MDG islands...
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1643. SLU
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Yes sir it is.

Since the circulation is elongated, reformations will be common until it finally focusses the energy in one location.

Looks like the 12z center has dissipated with a new one forming near 15n 59w, give or take a few miles.

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Quoting 1638. LargoFl:
Would probably move near Cuba or Yucatan and then into the US.
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1641. 62901IL
Good morning people! SPC has issued a slight risk for my area today. The main threat is damaging winds and large hail, and I cannot wait for some rain to destroy the heat. A Mesoscale Discussion is in effect for Missouri. For Southern IL, though, nothing is happening yet.
On the other hand, just one more day of extreme heat, and then a cooldown for the area.
Have a great day, everyone!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1972
Some very intense convection quickly expanding over 97L; the islands are going to feel some gale force winds and torrential rain even if it does not develop especially since it is moving slowly south of due west. At the moment the strong SW inflow is a credit to why the blob to its east is rapidly increasing. As the easterlies slow down ahead of the LLC and weak steering currents take over air is beginning to piling up as the LLC wraps around the weak easterlies around and force SW inflow to feed convection. As long as it keep this up, upper level winds will quickly fall and a more anticyclonic flow will take over. I believe this will continue through the day and as it crosses the islands tonight it should take off as it stack the cold cloud tops on top of the LLC.



This definitely have potential to become a hurricane once it passes 75W.
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12z NAM at 72 hours
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1638. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
12z NAM at 51 hours. Looks like it want to develop something in the GOM?
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1636. LargoFl
Quoting 1613. hydrus:
Right through the straights..Maybe..
this could be dangerous in a week huh..some models have it going north thru DR and Cuba..others take it into the gulf..i do hope that blocking HIGH is still around then.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Link I SEE A NICE SPIN!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flas h-vis-short.html link and zoom in you will see a nice spin to invest 97L
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100956
The voice coming out of nowhere and saying : I WANT THAT MESS TO MOVE NORTH!
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Quoting 1619. Abacosurf:
Link

Visual. Barbados.
Wind is freshening out of the WSW.

From what I saw its recording SE winds.
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1632. txjac
Quoting 1627. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Of course you know it could defy the physics and develop in the Eastern Caribbean. Being how strange this season has been already.

Good morning everyone. Anyone bar-b-cueing today or tomorrow?


I will be tomorrow
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1631. LargoFl
Quoting 1624. HuracanTaino:
The graveyard theory doesn't work much in September, living in Puerto Rico all my life, I've seen quite a few waves develop just south east of Puerto Rico, becoming TS, in September and early Oct.,for example, TS Eloisa Sept. 16, 1975, TS Iris Oct.8, 1985. They took us by surprise, causing lots of damages and a very high death toll...
yes indeed,in sept anything that goes in there needs to be watched carefully
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
1630. WoodyFL
this has really gone like on a straight line




1200 FRI AUG 30 14.5N 48.5W

1200 SUN SEP 01 14.6N 60.5W
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12z NAM at 48 hours
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1628. beell
Quoting 1623. BahaHurican:
I'll take it, if I'm not the magician... I only make things disappear...


And a staid, pedestrian explanation...

Atmopheric Optics/Wes Cowley
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Of course you know it could defy the physics and develop in the Eastern Caribbean. Being how strange this season has been already.

Good morning everyone. Anyone bar-b-cueing today or tomorrow?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Moved to new blog...
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ummm....looks like she might be trying to consolidate further east in the last few frames...
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Quoting VR46L:
Is no one interested in the TW in the Carribean just sayin .. I know its poor looking at the moment but it could pull a fernand in a few days ... I would suggest its a better candidate than 97L who has to come through the Graveyard



The graveyard theory doesn't work much in September, living in Puerto Rico all my life, I've seen quite a few waves develop just south east of Puerto Rico, becoming TS, in September and early Oct.,for example, TS Eloisa Sept. 16, 1975, TS Iris Oct.8, 1985. They took us by surprise, causing lots of damages and a very high death toll...
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Quoting 1618. beell:


Magic.
I'll take it, if I'm not the magician... I only make things disappear...
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Just seems like the year that nothing wants to spin.
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1620. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Link

Visual. Barbados.
Wind is freshening out of the WSW.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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