Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2013

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It's been a remarkably quiet late August in the Atlantic for hurricanes, with nary an "Invest", and precious few yellow 10% probability circles on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook. When will this remarkable hurricane drought come to an end? The computer models we use to track hurricanes have conflicting ideas about this. Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict genesis events of new tropical depressions in the Atlantic? Some answers come in a 2013 paper by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin, just accepted for publication in the journal Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." It turns out that two of the three most reliable models for predicting the genesis of tropical cyclones up to four days in advance are also the our top-performing models for predicting hurricane tracks: the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model. The UKMET model is also quite good at predicting tropical cyclone genesis events. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model (now succeeded by the Navy NAVGEM model) do less well. When two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably. The models have improved greatly in making genesis forecasts in recent years; back in 2007, when our top three models made a 4-day genesis forecast, these verified only 17 - 28% of the time. By 2011, the hit rate had increased to 45 - 50%. However, the models still miss most genesis events. In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 8% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 92% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate.


Figure 1. The probability of making a correct tropical cyclone genesis forecast for all forecast hours (06 to 96) by model, for the period 2004 - 2011. In 2011, three models--the GFS, UKMET, and European--made genesis forecasts that were correct 45 - 50% of the time. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model did less well. Data taken from Halperin et al., 2013, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." Weather and Forecasting, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM. The regional GFDL and HWRF hurricane models were not considered, as they use output from the GFS model to drive them, and are not good at making genesis forecasts. The study only looked at forecasts made up to four days in advance. While there have been cases where I've seen genesis predictions made 7 - 10 days in advance come true, these are rare, and the "hit" rate of successful genesis forecasts even four days in advance is low. In the paper, a "hit" was defined as a forecast that successfully predicted genesis within 24 hours and 345 miles of the observed time and location. A "false alarm" occurred when the model predicted a storm that never developed. The other categories considered were "late genesis" events where a storm formed more than 24 hours before it was predicted to, and "early genesis", where a storm formed more than 24 hours after it was predicted to. Here are some details on each model's ability to make Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011. The European model exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with over 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. Although the ECMWF misses many tropical cyclone genesis events in the Gulf of Mexico (as do the other models), when it does forecast genesis there, it almost always occurs. The model was highly prone to making late genesis forecasts.

American GFS model: The GFS model improved substantially in its genesis forecasts beginning in 2010, most likely due to a major model upgrade in 2010. The GFS is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (22% probability of detection in 2011.) However, the incidence of false alarms was 32% in 2011, double what the European model had. Like the European model, the GFS exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with nearly 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W.

UKMET model: The UKMET is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (20% probability of detection in 2011.) The incidence of false alarms was 18% in 2011, similar to what the European model had. Like the European and GFS models, the UKMET exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with more than 67% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. The model was prone to making late genesis forecasts.

Canadian GEM model: The Canadian model was the least likely to miss a formation event, with a 23% probability of detection in 2011. False alarms have been a major issue, though, and the Canadian model generated the second highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (42% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The Canadian model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. The model performs best over the main development region (MDR; 10-20°N, 60-20°W), Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Navy NOGAPS model: This model was retired in 2012, but we may be able to assume that its successor, the NAVGEM model, will have some of the same characteristics. False Alarms have been a major issue, and the NOGAPS model generated the highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (60% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The model also had a low probability of detection, just 9%. NOGAPS model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. Despite the high levels of hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, the NOGAPS model failed to successfully forecast any genesis events those years.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Very Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, but increased the 2-day odds of formation to 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is also showing little support for development from the models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

California's Rim Fire Now 6th Largest in State History, and is 30% Controlled
California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow, but an army of over 4,000 firefighters are making headway against the blaze, and had attained 30% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Thursday. According to Inciweb, fire has burned over 192,700 acres. This moves the fire into 6th place for largest fire in state history, according to statistics tabulated by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, "The Worst Wild Fires in U.S. History". The Rim Fire will have difficultly surpassing California's largest fire on record--the Cedar Fire in San Diego County of October 2003. That fire burned 273,246 acres (430 square miles). California has had its driest year-to-date period, so it is no surprise that the state is experiencing an unusually large fire this summer.


Video 1. Time-lapse photography shows various perspectives of the 2013 Rim Fire, as viewed from Yosemite National Park. The first part of this video is from the Crane Flat Helibase. The fire is currently burning in wilderness and is not immediately threatening visitors or employees. The second half of the video is from Glacier Point, showing Yosemite Valley, and how little the smoke from the fire has impacted the Valley.

Jeff Masters

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1085. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN
AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND...60 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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1083. GatorWX
Those that make predictions at least show enough courage to do so, right or wrong. Pretty sure the reason why many here don't is it's a credibility thing per se. Still it's at least somewhat courageous in regards to credibility/being wrong.

-Josh
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how bad iis our hobby this yr? zooming in on systems offshore maine?. no leftovers here its a sin to throw the food away.
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Quoting 1078. yoboi:




It might be helpful if you read what you link.....what happened to all those major hurricanes that you said would occur???? what about the record ice melt that you said would occur this yr????? I will give you credit for being clever if you make 100 wild predictions and only 1 becomes right you can say see I told you so.......
Geez, yoboi. I would think a person would get tired of erecting one straw man after another, especially when they're so flimsy and thus so easily destroyed. I might have to start calling you Aunt Sally. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14450
1080. Torito
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Quoting 1067. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


I'll have the cheese and Chorizo Quesadillas please. Apple Juice.

thank you
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1077. GatorWX
Good morning everyone!



oops!
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1076. IKE
96L is it on the latest 6Z GFS.....nothing affecting lower 48 through Sept. 15th.....

@ 144 hours....


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getting yellow
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Quoting 1059. BahaHurican:
Morning all.

It looks like things are perking up slightly in the ATL... just in time for the weekend...

Meanwhile it looks like more rain is likely here in New Providence later today.














Looks like another of last week's UUL developing and moving north again.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Quoting 1069. PureScience:
I like this, the probability of getting a four day forecast right... less than a coin toss. Yet when it comes to climate change models for the next 100 years there is 98% certainty.
See: Weather and Climate, differences between
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14450

Looks like it is drawing in some dry air and dust.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1070. barbamz
Nice to look at and fortunately not dangerous: "Hay devil" in the UK.



BBC, 30 August 2013 Last updated at 01:44 GMT
A man has captured a "vortex of hay" on video camera near his home in Hampshire.
Kevin Farndell saw the effects of the small whirlwind in fields by the village of Dummer.
The eyewitness, who was covered in falling debris from the "hay devil", called it "quite a sight".
Krista Mitchell at the BBC Weather Centre said: "The ground gets very hot and strong convection takes place.
"This rapidly rising air lifts dust, or straw, into the air. When conditions are right, the rising air will rotate."
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7895
I like this, the probability of getting a four day forecast right... less than a coin toss. Yet when it comes to climate change models for the next 100 years there is 98% certainty.
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Quoting 1067. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Those quesadilla's sound good! I'll have two, please!
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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1066. MahFL
So much shear......
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The "almost blob" didn't get sheared totally overnight.Another day to develop more convection.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1064. barbamz
Good morning from sunny Germany. Heads up once again in mid and western Mediterranean today:


Saved image. Source


Cloud top temperatures.

Alert level 2 from Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment).

Have a nice day everyone!



Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7895
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Quoting 1057. LargoFl:
not liking dat at all the high is to the north and east. east coast threat on dat run
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60 hours:

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The wave train generator is cranking up again.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Morning all.

It looks like things are perking up slightly in the ATL... just in time for the weekend...

Meanwhile it looks like more rain is likely here in New Providence later today.













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06z GFS initialization:

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1057. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50377
1056. LargoFl
folks down in the islands had better watch this one..goes to hurricane later on.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50377
1055. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50377
1054. LargoFl
FLORIDA PAY ATTENTION TO THIS......THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND AND OVER THE NATURE COAST. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...RESULTING IN FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER. NEVER DRIVE A VEHICLE OVER A FLOODED ROADWAY.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50377
1053. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Coffee is Now Perked..hmmmm.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50377


Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
The CMC strenghtens the wave currently located midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands into a hurricane despite 60+ knots of wind shear.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Later on it even brings it to major hurricane status in an environment of 90 knots of shear.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting 1038. TheGreatHodag:


I think the cmc had a few too many beers tonight...
no it not I saw the same thing last night with this model
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 149 Comments: 124628
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE WAVE NEARS THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO A
REGION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 149 Comments: 124628
Good Morning Class!
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Well, good night then blog. Lol, almost 3 AM for me. I am only going to get 3 hours of sleep. Oh well. Hopefully I won't fall asleep in any of my classes tomorrow, Econ is probably going to be the challenge class to stay awake in.



I always like to take a peek at the GOES EAST pics, even if there's nothing really interesting to look at.
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Quoting 1044. Xyrus2000:


Perspective? Hmmm....perspective...perspective. I heard that was a popular product a few decades ago but then kind of went out of favor. Sort of like the pet rock and all that.

Perspective is hard to come by in this country, what with most people wearing glasses covered in first world problems. But even if we could clean those glasses, perspective is just too expensive. I hear even on eBay you can't find perspective for anything less than 10 preconceived notions and a handful of biases. You used to be able to pick it up just for some self-righteous ideals, but unfortunately due to heavy inflation self-righteous ideals are a dime a dozen.

Besides, perspective has a number of side affects like awkwardness, nausea, depression, guilt, and shattering your perception of reality. Given all that, it's no wonder why perspective is so hard to find these days. It's amazing that it was ever popular to begin with.

Perspective is like the clamato juice of life. You know it's good for you, but you'd almost rather drink bleach.


Very nice prose... what I was trying to point out is that *compared to many people who come through our doors everyday*, you, me and everybody on this blog have No Problems. Be grateful for No Problems, first. Then ascend.
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Quoting 1043. southernstorm:
Ants in Mississippi earning the 'fire' portion of their name. They are on the move after all the rain and must be young and full of...venom. First time I have really felt the fire part, usually its more annoyance than pain. Check your sourthern lawns if you have kids.


I haven't seen fire ants here in Tennessee for a couple of years. Good thing too. I don't want to have to deal with those pests. Tell me that the ones down in Mississippi are heading any direction but north.
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Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


Perspective? Hmmm....perspective...perspective. I heard that was a popular product a few decades ago but then kind of went out of favor. Sort of like the pet rock and all that.

Perspective is hard to come by in this country, what with most people wearing glasses covered in first world problems. But even if we could clean those glasses, perspective is just too expensive. I hear even on eBay you can't find perspective for anything less than 10 preconceived notions and a handful of biases. You used to be able to pick it up just for some self-righteous ideals, but unfortunately due to heavy inflation self-righteous ideals are a dime a dozen.

Besides, perspective has a number of side affects like awkwardness, nausea, depression, guilt, and shattering your perception of reality. Given all that, it's no wonder why perspective is so hard to find these days. It's amazing that it was ever popular to begin with.

Perspective is like the clamato juice of life. You know it's good for you, but you'd almost rather drink bleach.
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Ants in Mississippi earning the 'fire' portion of their name. They are on the move after all the rain and must be young and full of...venom. First time I have really felt the fire part, usually its more annoyance than pain. Check your sourthern lawns if you have kids.
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Nobody told me there was a tornado watch out earlier for some portions of the states. But then again, I didn't have the computer earlier.

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1041. K8eCane
night everybody. im going to play some solitaire
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1040. K8eCane
Quoting 1036. Astrometeor:


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?


i saw it. but then again i watch too much ID TV...Lieutenant Joe Kenya Homicide Detective rocks
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Quoting 1036. Astrometeor:


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?


Youth is wasted on the young. Yes, we kill our unlucky customers.



Systems are being pushed back from CONUS.
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I think the cmc had a few too many beers tonight...
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Quoting 1035. KoritheMan:


I'm 22 as well, actually. Birthday is on April 11.


Tricky time. Higher calling is poking you, beckoning you. But 22 year-old brains are notorious for ignoring knocks at the door! Just listen....you will hear.

High centered over Missouri forecasted to move West Sunday, alleviating this awful heat over TX and LA.
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Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?
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Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


I'm 22 as well, actually. Birthday is on April 11.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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