Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2013

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It's been a remarkably quiet late August in the Atlantic for hurricanes, with nary an "Invest", and precious few yellow 10% probability circles on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook. When will this remarkable hurricane drought come to an end? The computer models we use to track hurricanes have conflicting ideas about this. Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict genesis events of new tropical depressions in the Atlantic? Some answers come in a 2013 paper by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin, just accepted for publication in the journal Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." It turns out that two of the three most reliable models for predicting the genesis of tropical cyclones up to four days in advance are also the our top-performing models for predicting hurricane tracks: the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model. The UKMET model is also quite good at predicting tropical cyclone genesis events. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model (now succeeded by the Navy NAVGEM model) do less well. When two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably. The models have improved greatly in making genesis forecasts in recent years; back in 2007, when our top three models made a 4-day genesis forecast, these verified only 17 - 28% of the time. By 2011, the hit rate had increased to 45 - 50%. However, the models still miss most genesis events. In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 8% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 92% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate.


Figure 1. The probability of making a correct tropical cyclone genesis forecast for all forecast hours (06 to 96) by model, for the period 2004 - 2011. In 2011, three models--the GFS, UKMET, and European--made genesis forecasts that were correct 45 - 50% of the time. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model did less well. Data taken from Halperin et al., 2013, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." Weather and Forecasting, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM. The regional GFDL and HWRF hurricane models were not considered, as they use output from the GFS model to drive them, and are not good at making genesis forecasts. The study only looked at forecasts made up to four days in advance. While there have been cases where I've seen genesis predictions made 7 - 10 days in advance come true, these are rare, and the "hit" rate of successful genesis forecasts even four days in advance is low. In the paper, a "hit" was defined as a forecast that successfully predicted genesis within 24 hours and 345 miles of the observed time and location. A "false alarm" occurred when the model predicted a storm that never developed. The other categories considered were "late genesis" events where a storm formed more than 24 hours before it was predicted to, and "early genesis", where a storm formed more than 24 hours after it was predicted to. Here are some details on each model's ability to make Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011. The European model exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with over 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. Although the ECMWF misses many tropical cyclone genesis events in the Gulf of Mexico (as do the other models), when it does forecast genesis there, it almost always occurs. The model was highly prone to making late genesis forecasts.

American GFS model: The GFS model improved substantially in its genesis forecasts beginning in 2010, most likely due to a major model upgrade in 2010. The GFS is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (22% probability of detection in 2011.) However, the incidence of false alarms was 32% in 2011, double what the European model had. Like the European model, the GFS exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with nearly 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W.

UKMET model: The UKMET is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (20% probability of detection in 2011.) The incidence of false alarms was 18% in 2011, similar to what the European model had. Like the European and GFS models, the UKMET exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with more than 67% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. The model was prone to making late genesis forecasts.

Canadian GEM model: The Canadian model was the least likely to miss a formation event, with a 23% probability of detection in 2011. False alarms have been a major issue, though, and the Canadian model generated the second highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (42% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The Canadian model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. The model performs best over the main development region (MDR; 10-20°N, 60-20°W), Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Navy NOGAPS model: This model was retired in 2012, but we may be able to assume that its successor, the NAVGEM model, will have some of the same characteristics. False Alarms have been a major issue, and the NOGAPS model generated the highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (60% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The model also had a low probability of detection, just 9%. NOGAPS model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. Despite the high levels of hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, the NOGAPS model failed to successfully forecast any genesis events those years.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Very Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, but increased the 2-day odds of formation to 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is also showing little support for development from the models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

California's Rim Fire Now 6th Largest in State History, and is 30% Controlled
California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow, but an army of over 4,000 firefighters are making headway against the blaze, and had attained 30% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Thursday. According to Inciweb, fire has burned over 192,700 acres. This moves the fire into 6th place for largest fire in state history, according to statistics tabulated by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, "The Worst Wild Fires in U.S. History". The Rim Fire will have difficultly surpassing California's largest fire on record--the Cedar Fire in San Diego County of October 2003. That fire burned 273,246 acres (430 square miles). California has had its driest year-to-date period, so it is no surprise that the state is experiencing an unusually large fire this summer.


Video 1. Time-lapse photography shows various perspectives of the 2013 Rim Fire, as viewed from Yosemite National Park. The first part of this video is from the Crane Flat Helibase. The fire is currently burning in wilderness and is not immediately threatening visitors or employees. The second half of the video is from Glacier Point, showing Yosemite Valley, and how little the smoke from the fire has impacted the Valley.

Jeff Masters

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1235. LargoFl
Quoting 1233. prcane4you:
For those who likes to track fishes.
would it be better if a cat-4 was coming to your area?...all these storms should be fish storms in my view..
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1234. 7544
Quoting 1217. DFWjc:


Nice little spinner just south of the keys....


and another fl blob is born where will this one go ?
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Quoting 1230. LargoFl:
seems GFS might be right with 96L.........
For those who likes to track fishes.
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1232. GatorWX
Quoting 1223. Sfloridacat5:
Not the best pic.
Here I'm smashing the lip on a wave at fish pass (Mustang Island Jetty - near Corpus Christ Tx). That's the color of the water on most days when there's surf there.


Nice, ever see the tanker swell in Galveston? BTW, looks like our water presently. Lovely, that dirty lake water, :p Yuck!
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1231. GatorWX
The young and the blogless lol.
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1230. LargoFl
seems GFS might be right with 96L.........
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1229. ncstorm
Its really not that serious to be getting worked up on this blog..I dont know any of yall..never met yall or will plan on doing it in the future..If anyone should be ranting 24/7 it should be me..I'm always thrown insults and sometimes I respond if bored:) but I never leave this blog to where I am upset..as in sports a coach would say leave it on the court, you should do the same here and leave it on the blog..

if anyone wants to talk directly to me instead of indirectly, my email is always open..

and Gro, if you felt like I was coming at you, I wasn't....again..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1228. GatorWX
Quoting 1211. hydrus:
When I lived there ( 70,s and 80,s ) the current at blind pass with the outgoing tide would put vertical faces on 7 to 9 foot high waves 100 feet from the shore in three feet of water. One of the worst wipe outs I ever had. Board nosed into the sand, and I came down on the back of the board. one of the fins gored my left leg.


I got a fin at north jetty Venice once, not from my own either. So congested there, lame! And that is some shallow water for that big of swell. At least it's sand and not a reef. This pic is the place I found the best surf in my lifetime, so far:




Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz, CA. I used to visit my dad and my aunt there every summer. Such a nice coastline. Very nice point break. COLD!!! My aunt live about 6 blocks in from Steamer, convenient. It usually was a nice clean swell, long rides, long sets, just very cold! (low-mid 50's all summer). I'd wear a wet suit in anything under 70 here. lol
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1227. hydrus
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

As the Blog Turns...One Blog to Live..The Young and the Blogless..The Blogs of Our Lives...Nadia,s Theme playing in da background...morning Gro..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Mate! If people misread misunderstand or misinterpret what you've written, it's Their problem, not your's. Don't change what you've been doing as long as your health is good.
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Quoting 1201. hurricanes2018:
did invest 96L STOP MOVING??
No.Soon will be moving to fish waters.
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1224. LargoFl
Folks in central florida need to watch your warnings today...............................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND AND OVER THE NATURE COAST. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...RESULTING IN FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER. NEVER DRIVE A VEHICLE OVER A FLOODED ROADWAY.

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Not the best pic.
Here I'm smashing the lip on a wave at fish pass (Mustang Island Jetty - near Corpus Christ Tx). That's the color of the water on most days when there's surf there.
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1221. SLU
Quoting 1197. seer2012:

Yep, dry air is obvious, some dust and heading straight into high shear. It's just another example of do-nothing 2013 waves.


We will be lucky to get even a TD out of 96L with a track like that.
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Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.


Wasn't intending any offense. I apologize for any perceived attack for it most definitely wasn't intended as such, just a teasing comment.I understand your dilemma! This attack crap that goes here is atrocious and non-stop.
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Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



You don't need to defend yourself. Sometimes people are unteachable and rude. I enjoy what you say, blog on.
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Rim Fire Incident Information:
Last Updated: August 30, 2013 6:30 am
Date/Time Started: August 17, 2013 3:25 pm
Administrative Unit: Stanislaus National Forest / CAL FIRE Tuolumne-Calaveras Unit
County: Tuolumne County
Location: 3 miles east of Groveland along Hwy 120
Acres Burned - Containment: 201,894 acres - 32% contained
Structures Threatened: 5,506 (4,500 residences, 1,000 outbuildings, 6 commercial)
Structures Destroyed: 111 (11 residences, 97 outbuildings, 3 commercial)
Evacuations: The Tuolumne County Sheriff’s Department has lifted the evacuation advisory for Tuolumne City, Soulsbyville and Willow Springs. The evacuation advisory remains in effect for Ponderosa Hills and areas east, along the south side of Highway 108 up to Pinecrest. An Evacuation Warning has been issued for all residences north of Bull Creek Road (Forest Road 2S02), Bondurant Mine Road, Texas Hill Road, and Wampum Hill. A Mandatory Evacuation has been issued for residences north of Old Yosemite Road (Forest Road 2S01). Highway 120 at the Yosemite National Park boundary west to Buck Meadows has been evacuated. Evacuation centers are at the Mother Lode Fairgrounds in Sonora and at the Greeley Hill Community Center.
Road Closures : Highway 120 remains closed from Buck Meadows to 1 ½ miles east of White Wolf. Highway 120 east/Tioga Road remains open from 1 ½
Injuries: 4
Cause: Under Investigation
Cooperating Agencies: CAL FIRE, USFS, CDCR, Mariposa County Sheriff, Tuolumne County Sheriff, California Conservation Corps, CHP, DOD, NWS, Pacific Gas and Electric, City and County of San Francisco Dept of Emergency Management., and the Red Cross.
Total Fire Personnel: 4,931
Total Fire Engines: 525
Total Fire crews: 105
Total Helicopters: 26
Total Dozers: 85
Total Water Tenders: 55
Conditions: The advisory evacuation notice for Tuolumne City, Soulsbyville and Willow Springs has been lifted. Firefighters began burning operations south of Hetch Hetchy and along Old Yosemite Road. Crews continue with line construction near Clavey Meadows near the 3N01 Road. Crews began removing fuels along the Tioga Road and Highway 120 near the Yosemite National Park entrance in preparation for the planned burnout. This work is to reduce the intensity of the burnout. The burnout has begun near Pilot Peak. Night crews will continue with burning operations as long as weather conditions allow, and will construct and improve firelines and provide structure defense.
Yosemite National Park has closed Tamarack Flat and Yosemite Creek Campgrounds, both located along the Tioga Road. White Wolf Campground and White Wolf Lodge remain closed. If you have questions about Yosemite National Park call 209-372-0327 or 209-372-0329. The Stanislaus National Forest has issued an area closure for the entire Groveland Ranger District and for the Mi-Wok Ranger District east of Highway 108. Additional details are available from the Stanislaus Forest Supervisor's Office, 209-532-3671; Mi-Wok Ranger Station, (209) 586-3234; Summit Ranger Station, 209-965-3434; and Groveland Ranger Station, 209-962-7825.

CAL FIRE went into unified command with the US Forest Service on Wednesday, August 21, 2013.
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1217. DFWjc
Quoting 1116. StormTrackerScott:
Very unusual.



Nice little spinner just south of the keys....
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this season has been completely awful. a bust season. very unfortunate
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
TrollTrackerScott was diagnosed with a severe tropical depression due to inactive season.Homer Simpson is the solution.LOL.
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Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



yeah Gro......exactly what StormW. went thru.... don't worry Gro... some folks just can't, can't let anyone have anything nice.. you do great my friend.. keep up the good work
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1213. LargoFl
folks up on the upper west coast of florida..storms firing up now...
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1212. JRRP
is the CMC that shows a Hurricane... that´s why i don´t worry
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1211. hydrus
Quoting 1179. Sfloridacat5:


Yep, quite rare to get decent surf (clean surf) on the west side.
I can't remember the storm, but I caught some really clean (chest to head high) surf down at Bonita Beach. TWC was even on the beach that day reporting live.

Locally, Blind Pass on Captiva Island is the spot where most guys show up looking for surf over here. That spot is suprisingly powerful when there's a swell. Very steep wave when it forms.
When I lived there ( 70,s and 80,s ) the current at blind pass with the outgoing tide would put vertical faces on 7 to 9 foot high waves 100 feet from the shore in three feet of water. One of the worst wipe outs I ever had. Board nosed into the sand, and I came down on the back of the board. one of the fins gored my left leg.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting 1108. IKE:

2m
Incredible lack of tropical
activity GLOBALLY probably due in at least part to drying mid/upper
levels, OPPOSITE OF IPCC AND EPA contentions..........
...................................... ...
Think I'll go mow my front yard. More spinning in that then what's in the ATL.Number of hurricanes in the ATL this season....0.Number of 70 mph TS's in the ATL this season....0.


The last I checked, the IPCC and EPA don't do weather forecasting.

The EPA? Really? Bastardi must be losing his mind or something. Or gunning for a political commentary position on Fox News.
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1209. LargoFl
Quoting 1199. K8eCane:


please i hope that isnt moving west. thats close enuf for that monster
this one time im hoping the GFS is right...out to sea with it.
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1208. GatorWX
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Just wanted this^ to repost as I couldn't agree more.
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1207. LargoFl
Quoting 1202. ncstorm:


Navgem dropped it..I dont know about the UKMET but lets not forget Andrea..CMC had no other model support as well and we wll know how that ended..

yes we do need to watch it this coming week
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the GEM MODEL SHOW THAT HURRICANE ON WEDNEDAY AND THURDAY AND NOW ON FRIDAY!AT 222 HOURS FROM NOW!
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"I went to the bookstore and asked the salesman where the self-help section was. He said if he told me it would defeat the purpose."

I like how Zen the hard core folks on here are taking this season. What's for breakfast?

Amazing timelapse movies of the rim fire. It gives me a new perspective on the energies involved and the evolution of a fire front. Thanks for posting that Dr. M.
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Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Don't worry Gro. You had me at blob.
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1203. GatorWX
Quoting 1194. hydrus:
Nice. Best swell I have ever seen ( but did not surf) was Allen in 1980. Once he moved through the Yucatan Channel into the gulf, absolutely marvelous swells coming in from the S.W. at Fort Myers Beach and Naples.


It's pretty rare to get a nice ground swell. Rita threw off a nice one. I remember getting rolled along with a bunch of dead fish. Nasty red tide that summer! It was the only time it ever really affected me. I can usually handle it pretty well.
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1202. ncstorm
Quoting 1188. CybrTeddy:


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support, other than some from the NAVGEM and UKMET.


Navgem dropped it..I dont know about the UKMET but lets not forget Andrea..CMC had no other model support as well and we wll know how that ended..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
did invest 96L STOP MOVING??
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Quoting 1168. StormTrackerScott:
This how I feel about this years hurricane season.


So funny,no wonder you are TrollTracker.
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1199. K8eCane
Quoting 1180. LargoFl:
guys IF the GEM model verifies in the long run..this could be a cat4 or cat 5 in the end run..fantasyland


please i hope that isnt moving west. thats close enuf for that monster
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1198. Grothar
Quoting 1152. seer2012:


That hotspot on the right looks better than anything else. Low shear, convection. Where's Gro when ya need him?



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

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Quoting 1170. SLU:
Not sure how 96L will be able to develop when it's going to be moving towards the northwest into that stable airmass of stratocumulus clouds, dry air and cool SSTs. The EURO has realised this and basically kills the circulation in 3 days unlike the false alarm GFS which stubbornly forecasts development in that kind of environment. I'm leaning to the EURO's solution.




Yep, dry air is obvious, some dust and heading straight into high shear. It's just another example of do-nothing 2013 waves.
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Quoting 1183. GatorWX:
Nice article I remember reading regarding surfing the west coast of FL.

Pensacola during Katrina:




Biggest I've seen in the Gulf. TX has good surf sometimes too, but I've never seen anything approaching pics above.



I lived at Flour Bluff (Corpus Christ/Padre Island Tx.). I've surfed some huge waves (put a VW bus inside the barrel) in Texas. We caught many huge hurricane swells.
Our local spot was Bob Hall Pier. Still have lots of friends in Corpus that surf.

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this model having been telling us this hurricane for three days now.
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1194. hydrus
Quoting 1177. GatorWX:


Venice North Jetty, Ivan. Nice clip, big day, long ride.
(From Gulfster.com)

North Jetty is best with a strong southerly swell and offshore winds. Ivan, Dennis, etc.
Nice. Best swell I have ever seen ( but did not surf) was Allen in 1980. Once he moved through the Yucatan Channel into the gulf, absolutely marvelous swells coming in from the S.W. at Fort Myers Beach and Naples.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
1193. ncstorm
Quoting 1181. Grothar:


No one is calling him out. In the article it mentions his forecast was the same as all the others. All five of the main forecasting systems called for basically the same type of hurricane season.


well, I wasnt speaking of you Gro..(hands over a krispy kreme doughnut)....

further down in comments you will see once again that Bastardi is targeted on the blog..I just wanted to remind people that many of the experts made the same predictions as he did..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Quoting 1175. LargoFl:
if i LIVED on these islands..I would be checking my supplies and preps..JUST IN CASE huh.........


CMC 144H... 0.01% chance :( But I would love to see a good surprise
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1191. LargoFl
Quoting 1188. CybrTeddy:


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support.
yeah im seeing that too..cmc and gem make it a hurricane..we'll see..plenty of time yet to watch it..NHC has it at 60% in 5 days, thats better than we've seen in months huh..
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1190. GatorWX
Quoting 1179. Sfloridacat5:


Yep, quite rare to get decent surf (clean surf) on the west side.
I can't remember the storm, but I caught some really clean (chest to head high) surf down at Bonita Beach. TWC was even on the beach that day reporting live.

Locally, Blind Pass on Captiva Island is the spot where most guys show up looking for surf over here. That spot is suprisingly powerful when there's a swell. Very steep wave when it forms.


It said Gustav when I clicked the picture. Check out the video I posted above from Venice. Nice swell!
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1189. LargoFl
GFS for some reason puts them all out to sea so far...
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Quoting 1180. LargoFl:
guys IF the GEM model verifies in the long run..this could be a cat4 or cat 5 in the end run..fantasyland


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support, other than some from the NAVGEM and UKMET.
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1187. LargoFl
Quoting 1182. rmbjoe1954:


Sooner or later one of these models have to be spot on.
yes, it IS that time of year alright..
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The seasonal forecasts are less important, in terms of warning the public, than the subject of Jeff's most recent post. Since I live near Galveston, I'd like to see the models improve their ability to predict genesis in the GOM. We have plenty of time to react AFTER a storm forms in the MDR, but sometimes only a couple days if it's in the GOM.
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Lol a while back we were saying if the Atlantic was quiet up to this point the blog would start putting all of its faith into October and even November. Yes the demarcations that define our hurricane season are manmade and nature does not have to obey them. However, the window is slowly closing and by the time we reach November it is only open a crack and by December it's 99% closed guys. Sorry.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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