Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2013

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It's been a remarkably quiet late August in the Atlantic for hurricanes, with nary an "Invest", and precious few yellow 10% probability circles on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook. When will this remarkable hurricane drought come to an end? The computer models we use to track hurricanes have conflicting ideas about this. Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict genesis events of new tropical depressions in the Atlantic? Some answers come in a 2013 paper by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin, just accepted for publication in the journal Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." It turns out that two of the three most reliable models for predicting the genesis of tropical cyclones up to four days in advance are also the our top-performing models for predicting hurricane tracks: the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model. The UKMET model is also quite good at predicting tropical cyclone genesis events. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model (now succeeded by the Navy NAVGEM model) do less well. When two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably. The models have improved greatly in making genesis forecasts in recent years; back in 2007, when our top three models made a 4-day genesis forecast, these verified only 17 - 28% of the time. By 2011, the hit rate had increased to 45 - 50%. However, the models still miss most genesis events. In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 8% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 92% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate.


Figure 1. The probability of making a correct tropical cyclone genesis forecast for all forecast hours (06 to 96) by model, for the period 2004 - 2011. In 2011, three models--the GFS, UKMET, and European--made genesis forecasts that were correct 45 - 50% of the time. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model did less well. Data taken from Halperin et al., 2013, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." Weather and Forecasting, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM. The regional GFDL and HWRF hurricane models were not considered, as they use output from the GFS model to drive them, and are not good at making genesis forecasts. The study only looked at forecasts made up to four days in advance. While there have been cases where I've seen genesis predictions made 7 - 10 days in advance come true, these are rare, and the "hit" rate of successful genesis forecasts even four days in advance is low. In the paper, a "hit" was defined as a forecast that successfully predicted genesis within 24 hours and 345 miles of the observed time and location. A "false alarm" occurred when the model predicted a storm that never developed. The other categories considered were "late genesis" events where a storm formed more than 24 hours before it was predicted to, and "early genesis", where a storm formed more than 24 hours after it was predicted to. Here are some details on each model's ability to make Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011. The European model exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with over 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. Although the ECMWF misses many tropical cyclone genesis events in the Gulf of Mexico (as do the other models), when it does forecast genesis there, it almost always occurs. The model was highly prone to making late genesis forecasts.

American GFS model: The GFS model improved substantially in its genesis forecasts beginning in 2010, most likely due to a major model upgrade in 2010. The GFS is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (22% probability of detection in 2011.) However, the incidence of false alarms was 32% in 2011, double what the European model had. Like the European model, the GFS exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with nearly 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W.

UKMET model: The UKMET is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (20% probability of detection in 2011.) The incidence of false alarms was 18% in 2011, similar to what the European model had. Like the European and GFS models, the UKMET exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with more than 67% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. The model was prone to making late genesis forecasts.

Canadian GEM model: The Canadian model was the least likely to miss a formation event, with a 23% probability of detection in 2011. False alarms have been a major issue, though, and the Canadian model generated the second highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (42% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The Canadian model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. The model performs best over the main development region (MDR; 10-20°N, 60-20°W), Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Navy NOGAPS model: This model was retired in 2012, but we may be able to assume that its successor, the NAVGEM model, will have some of the same characteristics. False Alarms have been a major issue, and the NOGAPS model generated the highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (60% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The model also had a low probability of detection, just 9%. NOGAPS model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. Despite the high levels of hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, the NOGAPS model failed to successfully forecast any genesis events those years.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Very Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, but increased the 2-day odds of formation to 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is also showing little support for development from the models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

California's Rim Fire Now 6th Largest in State History, and is 30% Controlled
California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow, but an army of over 4,000 firefighters are making headway against the blaze, and had attained 30% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Thursday. According to Inciweb, fire has burned over 192,700 acres. This moves the fire into 6th place for largest fire in state history, according to statistics tabulated by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, "The Worst Wild Fires in U.S. History". The Rim Fire will have difficultly surpassing California's largest fire on record--the Cedar Fire in San Diego County of October 2003. That fire burned 273,246 acres (430 square miles). California has had its driest year-to-date period, so it is no surprise that the state is experiencing an unusually large fire this summer.


Video 1. Time-lapse photography shows various perspectives of the 2013 Rim Fire, as viewed from Yosemite National Park. The first part of this video is from the Crane Flat Helibase. The fire is currently burning in wilderness and is not immediately threatening visitors or employees. The second half of the video is from Glacier Point, showing Yosemite Valley, and how little the smoke from the fire has impacted the Valley.

Jeff Masters

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um, can you guys work on your sensitivity training, hold hands and sing "kumbaya" on another forum. :)

Ignoring other people's opinions you don't like is part of 'turn the other cheek'.
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its good to see twc bringing it to the table this yr. they need a storm .
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We need your wisdom and Blobology  expertise Grothar, stick around you make this a better blog.
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ECMWF is very bullish on development of 96L, but only brings it to 35 knots before it kills it.

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1281. GatorWX
Now, after reading, I feel like I was agreeing with that person. I certainly had no intention of that. Norcross is one of the best we have, imo.

*agreeing to a degree
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1271. canyonboy:
Curious. One expects increased water temperatures to spawn at least an average hurricane season.

Unfortunately, there are many other variables at play. Some that we don't always have a great handle on, at least on an individual year's timescale. Many of the other variables are piling against warm sea surface temperatures.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
Quoting 1274. JRRP:
the low SW of CV looks interesting


You also can see the easterly shear affecting 96L with the low exposed. Agree about that low latitude low is interesting.
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Quoting 1274. JRRP:
the low SW of CV looks interesting


It might develop into something but all indications are it will go harmlessly out to sea long before it threatens any land areas.
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Quoting 1272. K8eCane:
Gro I just saw your post. I for one would be upset if you leave. Do what you have to do for your health, but please try to stay if you can.
Agree!
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Quoting 1247. LargoFl:
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..


Well put Largo, I'm here for the same reasons. I can throw a rock from my backyard to the water so what happens in the tropics is a big concern for me. I come here so I know first when something might threaten my home.

Gro I wish you the best, you're one of the good guys here!
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Quoting 1243. Carltona:
Predicting the future based on current information doesn't really work anywhere with any reliability. Look at all the polls that try to predict election outcomes, all the economists that try to predict the market, all the sports pundits that try to predict the next superball winner. I recommend people check out freakonnomics.com and the "folly of prediction" podcast. http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomic s-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/

I don't know if that is entirely true. Scientists do this kind of prediction quite often, and there is varying levels of success depending on the situation. A blanket "it doesn't work anywhere" statement probably isn't accurate.

For example, in river forecasting, we have models that help us estimate how much infiltration and runoff has occurred (runoff gets converted to a flow hydrograph forecast), but many times we use "checks" to make sure the model is behaving appropriately. A frequently-used check would be to use a Mean-Aerial-Rainfall-to-Crest plot, which contains most historical crests and how much rainfall it took to get there. If the hydrologic model is suggesting a vastly different outcome than actual observed outcomes from the past, then the forecast deserves more scrutiny. In some cases, these rainfall-to-crest plots even out-perform our hydrologic models, and all the plot uses is observed forecasted rainfall, and current soil moisture condition!

Also, with election outcomes vs. polling, I would almost bet that the majority of the time, election polling is a good forecast of outcomes, at least when there is enough data. One poll is rarely enough due to the uncertainty, but with multiple polls, the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases, biases are mitigated, and the result is less often far from the forecast. Look at the successes of FiveThirtyEight's methodology and that of RealClearPolitics.

It just really depends on the situation... how much data is available from past outcomes, and how much variability in past outcomes is explained by data you have.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
1274. JRRP
the low SW of CV looks interesting
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Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


I am not sure why I get on this blog every day when there is no apparent storm threat, however, I need to see what's on the sideboard, what Dexter is doing and how many times CaribBoy can say boring. Most of all, I truly enjoy all of the comments, knowledge and sense of humor Gro brings to this community.

Gro, I would ask you to stay on as long as possible, perhaps selfishly, since without you these discussions would lose a lot of their soul.

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1272. K8eCane
Gro I just saw your post. I for one would be upset if you leave. Do what you have to do for your health, but please try to stay if you can.
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Curious. One expects increased water temperatures to spawn at least an average hurricane season.
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Quoting 1262. ScottLincoln:

Wouldn't bother me...
I didn't use my real name when I signed up because I was still not an adult. Now that I am, I'm not afraid to say my full name or which college I'm attending. In fact, some of bloggers on here know my full name as well as me knowing full name of some on here because of a Facebook group that is run by TA13 (very impressive group, btw).
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1269. Grothar
Quoting 1260. ncstorm:


Gro, who would I call a twit if you leave?..Please stay and dont let comments stress you out. again, if it takes me apologizing and if you felt like I was coming at your post, I'm sorry, I really wasn't but again I will say sorry just for you to stay..I hope you will reconsider because lord knows this blog wouldnt be the same without you...

Signed..
Twit in Wilmington..



No, nc. It wasn't you. It is just the general attacks of rude remarks that people make to each other in general, especially the one on Brian Norcross's blog attacking him. It is especially upsetting when I like both bloggers. It is just too hurtful to see.

And thank all of youl for the kind words, but I think I will take a little nap now.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

Gro, most of those that are expecting more out of you are the same one that really don't have anything to live for in real life. They are not the one telling you to make time for this blog. It's not a job to discuss weather with the others on here. You just do what you want to do, Gro :) Same could be said for Levi, as so many people are giving him an high expectation. I believe Levi is the best upcoming forecaster in the nation and many meteorologists on Twitter have told Levi this. It's understandable if you want Levi on here to listen to his forecasts, but people forget he's a college student studying Physics for a degree with future goal of a meteorology grad school. When he's not busy with college, which is really difficult to not be that I'm founding out, he still got a website he run and that's a lot of work. Same can be said for TropicalAnalystwx13, who is swamped with homework that his early college high school demands. My point is we all got active life outside blog so it's really unfair to expect ones to be on here all the time.
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1267. GatorWX
Quoting 1262. ScottLincoln:

Wouldn't bother me...


lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1204. StAugustineFL:


Don't worry Gro. You had me at blob.


Gro

As a long term lurker (pre-Katrina despite my apparent join date), I can say that there are people on here that eppreciate your comments and your humor and read them in their entirity, even if we don't say much in return. I am an engineer, not a met by training, so I prefer not to provide my 'expert opinion' on what is going on. There are a number of contributors to this blog who are less than civil, but many decent people who appreciate your comments too. Keep up the comments and remember that your 'fans' are backing you ;-)
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1265. GatorWX
Quoting 1259. ohzone:


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!


I doubt that, but maybe. It's still virtual. That other person isn't standing in front of you. Some folks feel very empowered in virtual land!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Whomever has a problem with Gro, you really need to rethink who you are as a blogger and eat more fiber....seriously.

Gro, don't go anywhere. Love you, man!
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1263. LargoFl
well thats it for me for awhile..stay safe out there,the dogs are looking at me for their walk in the park time lol...
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Quoting 1259. ohzone:


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!

Wouldn't bother me...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
1261. LargoFl
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1260. ncstorm
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


Gro, who would I call a twit if you leave?..Please stay and dont let comments stress you out. again, if it takes me apologizing and if you felt like I was coming at your post, I'm sorry, I really wasn't but again I will say sorry just for you to stay..I hope you will reconsider because lord knows this blog wouldnt be the same without you...

Signed..
Twit in Wilmington..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
1259. ohzone
Quoting 1214. RidingTheStormOut:


yeah Gro......exactly what StormW. went thru.... don't worry Gro... some folks just can't, can't let anyone have anything nice.. you do great my friend.. keep up the good work


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!
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1258. txjac
Quoting 1255. GatorWX:
Gro,

I may not be a "regular" here, but I've been around since '05, even though my member since date suggests otherwise(began with a different handle). I've seen many come and go and have learned through the years who are genuine and who's insightful. You, Grothar have provided me with many laughs, made me think, provided me with good perspective, etc. I know the common joke is always about your age. Age is just a number even though it's reality and in my book, representative of person who may know a lot more than me. Thanks for sticking it out. I hope you don't allow a silly blog in virtual land to cause you too much stress, but if so, don't deal with it. It's easy for people to attack others, etc in these forums as it is as I stated virtual land. Hang in there guy, if you wish. We love ya and appreciate you more than you probably realize!




Plus, plus, plus ...cant plus it enough
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1257. LargoFl
storm firing up to the north of me now.........
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Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.

Gro,
You will have nothing left to do but clean the house for the mrs. right? At least this blog gets you out that, lol. :) Hopefully you don't go, your humor is always appreciated and balances out the blog nicely.
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1255. GatorWX
Gro,

I may not be a "regular" here, but I've been around since '05, even though my member since date suggests otherwise(began with a different handle). I've seen many come and go and have learned through the years who are genuine and who's insightful. You, Grothar have provided me with many laughs, made me think, provided me with good perspective, etc. I know the common joke is always about your age. Age is just a number even though it's reality and in my book, representative of person who may know a lot more than me. Thanks for sticking it out. I hope you don't allow a silly blog in virtual land to cause you too much stress, but if so, don't deal with it. It's easy for people to attack others, etc in these forums as it is as I stated virtual land. Hang in there guy, if you wish. We love ya and appreciate you more than you probably realize!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
1254. LargoFl
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

GMZ052-053-072-073-301500-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM
10 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO 20 TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS. MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MASS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
EVAPORATE AS IT APPROACHES HAWK CHANNEL SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS.
THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BEYOND 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
KEYS WILL DRIFT NORTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND CUT VISIBILITY TO BELOW 4 MILES IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

$$
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1253. L1990
Quoting 1239. GatorWX:
Well no surf for awhile here. Normal summer flatness, so guess it's back the watching and waiting. Closest thing to home and imo most interesting feature at present:




Looks to be fading away again however.



i get worried when i see something right there..... when was the last time we had an entire season without a hurricane?
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Quoting 1247. LargoFl:
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..

You do a great job at it, you don't get carried away with it.
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1251. txjac
Quoting 1248. Dragod66:


Jinx! lol we pretty much said the same thing haha!


And at the same time ...
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Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


It is very important that you think of yourself first Gro. Your friends will understand and respect your decision. Please take care and if you feel up to it drop in to say hello when you.
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Quoting 1229. ncstorm:
Its really not that serious to be getting worked up on this blog..I dont know any of yall..never met yall or will plan on doing it in the future..If anyone should be ranting 24/7 it should be me..I'm always thrown insults and sometimes I respond if bored:) but I never leave this blog to where I am upset..as in sports a coach would say leave it on the court, you should do the same here and leave it on the blog..

if anyone wants to talk directly to me instead of indirectly, my email is always open..

and Gro, if you felt like I was coming at you, I wasn't....again..




NC,
Thank you for the model posts much appreciated. What makes this blog irritating lately are not the models or anything like that, it is the comments on the number of fish storms or how a select few want a cat 5 hitting them. I am not sure if they do it just to get a rise out of others or seriously have some issues of distress. I hope it is the former and not the latter and can seek professional help if they need it.
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Quoting 1245. txjac:



And we are fond of you ...you're like talking with a brother/friend when I listen to you on the blog. You must think of yourself first and foremost ..so if you have to take off for a bit ...do it. Those of us that care, do understand. You and your wit will be sorely missed ..please drop in to say hello.


Jinx! lol we pretty much said the same thing haha!
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1247. LargoFl
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..
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Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


If that is what you need Gro, we support you! Hope you are not gone for long, will miss your weather knowledge and your general wittiness!
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1245. txjac
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.



And we are fond of you ...you're like talking with a brother/friend when I listen to you on the blog. You must think of yourself first and foremost ..so if you have to take off for a bit ...do it. Those of us that care, do understand. You and your wit will be sorely missed ..please drop in to say hello.
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1244. GatorWX
Click to animate if you so wish.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Predicting the future based on current information doesn't really work anywhere with any reliability. Look at all the polls that try to predict election outcomes, all the economists that try to predict the market, all the sports pundits that try to predict the next superball winner. I recommend people check out freakonnomics.com and the "folly of prediction" podcast. http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomic s-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/

The fact that we get real-time data and updates lets us be prepared days in advance which is far better than wondering what those dark clouds on the horizon mean or pink sky in morning, sailor take warning.
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1242. LargoFl
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.
OK Gro we understand..you take care and do what you must ok..you have made alot of online friends in here..
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1241. Grothar
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1240. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD...HIGH CHANCE...IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL
LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS
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1239. GatorWX
Well no surf for awhile here. Normal summer flatness, so guess it's back the watching and waiting. Closest thing to home and imo most interesting feature at present:




Looks to be fading away again however.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1216. wunderweatherman123:
this season has been completely awful. a bust season. very unfortunate


I wish it would be this way every year, nobody needs the damage these storms cause.
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1237. LargoFl
GFS has nothing bothering us for awhile...............
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I think the blog needs to eat breakfast. Let me rustle some up for you...

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1235. LargoFl
Quoting 1233. prcane4you:
For those who likes to track fishes.
would it be better if a cat-4 was coming to your area?...all these storms should be fish storms in my view..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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