Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2013

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It's been a remarkably quiet late August in the Atlantic for hurricanes, with nary an "Invest", and precious few yellow 10% probability circles on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook. When will this remarkable hurricane drought come to an end? The computer models we use to track hurricanes have conflicting ideas about this. Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict genesis events of new tropical depressions in the Atlantic? Some answers come in a 2013 paper by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin, just accepted for publication in the journal Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." It turns out that two of the three most reliable models for predicting the genesis of tropical cyclones up to four days in advance are also the our top-performing models for predicting hurricane tracks: the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model. The UKMET model is also quite good at predicting tropical cyclone genesis events. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model (now succeeded by the Navy NAVGEM model) do less well. When two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably. The models have improved greatly in making genesis forecasts in recent years; back in 2007, when our top three models made a 4-day genesis forecast, these verified only 17 - 28% of the time. By 2011, the hit rate had increased to 45 - 50%. However, the models still miss most genesis events. In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 8% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 92% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate.


Figure 1. The probability of making a correct tropical cyclone genesis forecast for all forecast hours (06 to 96) by model, for the period 2004 - 2011. In 2011, three models--the GFS, UKMET, and European--made genesis forecasts that were correct 45 - 50% of the time. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model did less well. Data taken from Halperin et al., 2013, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." Weather and Forecasting, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM. The regional GFDL and HWRF hurricane models were not considered, as they use output from the GFS model to drive them, and are not good at making genesis forecasts. The study only looked at forecasts made up to four days in advance. While there have been cases where I've seen genesis predictions made 7 - 10 days in advance come true, these are rare, and the "hit" rate of successful genesis forecasts even four days in advance is low. In the paper, a "hit" was defined as a forecast that successfully predicted genesis within 24 hours and 345 miles of the observed time and location. A "false alarm" occurred when the model predicted a storm that never developed. The other categories considered were "late genesis" events where a storm formed more than 24 hours before it was predicted to, and "early genesis", where a storm formed more than 24 hours after it was predicted to. Here are some details on each model's ability to make Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011. The European model exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with over 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. Although the ECMWF misses many tropical cyclone genesis events in the Gulf of Mexico (as do the other models), when it does forecast genesis there, it almost always occurs. The model was highly prone to making late genesis forecasts.

American GFS model: The GFS model improved substantially in its genesis forecasts beginning in 2010, most likely due to a major model upgrade in 2010. The GFS is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (22% probability of detection in 2011.) However, the incidence of false alarms was 32% in 2011, double what the European model had. Like the European model, the GFS exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with nearly 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W.

UKMET model: The UKMET is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (20% probability of detection in 2011.) The incidence of false alarms was 18% in 2011, similar to what the European model had. Like the European and GFS models, the UKMET exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with more than 67% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. The model was prone to making late genesis forecasts.

Canadian GEM model: The Canadian model was the least likely to miss a formation event, with a 23% probability of detection in 2011. False alarms have been a major issue, though, and the Canadian model generated the second highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (42% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The Canadian model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. The model performs best over the main development region (MDR; 10-20°N, 60-20°W), Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Navy NOGAPS model: This model was retired in 2012, but we may be able to assume that its successor, the NAVGEM model, will have some of the same characteristics. False Alarms have been a major issue, and the NOGAPS model generated the highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (60% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The model also had a low probability of detection, just 9%. NOGAPS model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. Despite the high levels of hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, the NOGAPS model failed to successfully forecast any genesis events those years.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Very Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, but increased the 2-day odds of formation to 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is also showing little support for development from the models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

California's Rim Fire Now 6th Largest in State History, and is 30% Controlled
California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow, but an army of over 4,000 firefighters are making headway against the blaze, and had attained 30% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Thursday. According to Inciweb, fire has burned over 192,700 acres. This moves the fire into 6th place for largest fire in state history, according to statistics tabulated by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, "The Worst Wild Fires in U.S. History". The Rim Fire will have difficultly surpassing California's largest fire on record--the Cedar Fire in San Diego County of October 2003. That fire burned 273,246 acres (430 square miles). California has had its driest year-to-date period, so it is no surprise that the state is experiencing an unusually large fire this summer.


Video 1. Time-lapse photography shows various perspectives of the 2013 Rim Fire, as viewed from Yosemite National Park. The first part of this video is from the Crane Flat Helibase. The fire is currently burning in wilderness and is not immediately threatening visitors or employees. The second half of the video is from Glacier Point, showing Yosemite Valley, and how little the smoke from the fire has impacted the Valley.

Jeff Masters

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1335. islander101010
4:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
there is no where in the world better for giant surf than the north shore of hawaii. sunset bch pipeline waimea bay and makaha on oahu, jaws on maui, and hanalei bay in kauai. medium size was my favorite early 80s 85 surfed rockey pt gas chanbers and kahukus when the wind blew kona. at sunset bch big day got caught on a giant west set lost the board and had to swim into the giant breakers getting crushed in order not to get caught in enornus riptides. lifeguards back then were rarely seen. it got to be had to be scared for the full satisfaction.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
1334. hydrus
4:22 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1333. Neapolitan:
I believe the former is prerequisite to the latter. ;-)
Lol..He would fit in ridiculously well....some things were just meant to go together..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
1333. Neapolitan
3:42 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1210. Xyrus2000:


The last I checked, the IPCC and EPA don't do weather forecasting.

The EPA? Really? Bastardi must be losing his mind or something. Or gunning for a political commentary position on Fox News.
I believe the former is prerequisite to the latter. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
1332. seer2012
3:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



EDIT: The shoe on the very far right is $250. The middle shoe is $135. The left one will be released later this month.


Rock climbing shoes!
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1331. Badmonkey82009
3:38 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


I, personally, will miss your wit and insight. Take care of yourself.

Jason
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
1330. 7544
3:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1311. Sfloridacat5:
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.


hi isnt this what the miami nws thaat was posted a page back noted wouldnt the high makes this one go wnw tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1329. WalkingInTheSun
3:27 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
S-l-o-w weather, huh?
Well, maybe can have some trivia time about that VERY persistent Low off the tip of Florida, then.

Have ANY TS's or hurricanes ever developed out of an ULL, and if so, does anyone have any idea as to the number, which ones, severity, etc.?

Hey, at least this is on-topic and might alleviate some of the recent tendency towards bickering on this blog, (...unless ULL's are a discreet govt weather-manipulating conspiracy.)
:)) -- (Hey, it's Friday.)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
1328. barbamz
3:22 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1313. GatorWX:


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there, stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?


Well, I think it's a good idea to stick to one location and get familiar with it (the more when it has to offer such a lot of interesting places as Barcelona), better than hopping over whole Europe from one "must have seen" to the other.
If you venture out a bit:

A very interesting destination nearby is Mount Monserrat:



And when you drive up the coast into France by car you'll find such a lot of places with overwhelming landscape and very picturesque old villages and monasteries in the Roussillon region just beyond the border that you won't have to drive much further to spend all the days of your trip.

And if you have a chance, visit Carcassone with its amazing medieval fortifications:



I've been in this region for vacation many years ago when I still was a poor student and I still like to think back and remember.

Sorry, for this little excursion off topic, fellow bloggers. I always like to look at the development of weather in regions where friends are staying for their vacations, and will follow Gators weather fate in Spain, coming mid September, especially closely, lol. :)

Anyway, new blog, lol. As always when I've pulled together a post.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5020
1327. TXEER
3:21 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1325. GatorWX:


Cool, thanks. Love wine lol! Tried my first Spanish wine the other day, 2009 Las Rocas Garnacha.


Check the map and you will see a small walled city called Carcassonne which is also worth a visit. It's just over the border from Spain and sits in the shadows of the Pyrenees and is worth the visit. Arles is an old Roman city with and amphitheater and coliseum which is still used for bull fights.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
1326. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1325. GatorWX
3:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1321. TXEER:


Yes...take the train from Barcelona to Arles or Avignon and rent a car.

Lot of history, lot of great hill towns and of course GREAT WINE!!


Cool, thanks. Love wine lol! Tried my first Spanish wine the other day, 2009 Las Rocas Garnacha.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1324. unknowncomic
3:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
the nam only goes 84 hours and why would the NCEP include it in with the GFS if it was no use.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
1323. sunlinepr
3:17 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1317. Sfloridacat5:


That spot is ridiculous when its on. Need to be on you game.
The biggest clean surf I've ever riden was in Baha Mexico during a high surf advisory. Solid 15ft and clean. The drop and bottom turn was scary. Once you made the drop it wasn't that bad. But that drop separated the men from the boys.
A couple of my buddies got slammed on their first drop and sat on the beach the rest of the day. lol


Even Steve Fitzpatrick doing photograps from the outside experienced the fury of that wave....

1999 photo by him

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
1322. GatorWX
3:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Oy! Glad I hung out here instead of taking out the kayak. Maybe this afternoon.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1321. TXEER
3:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1313. GatorWX:


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there in '08. We've stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?


Yes...take the train from Barcelona to Arles or Avignon and rent a car.

Lot of history, lot of great hill towns and of course GREAT WINE!!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
1320. GatorWX
3:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1312. sunlinepr:
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....



Probably the best warm area in the Atlantic. Beautiful photo!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1319. unknowncomic
3:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1310. nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.
I seen it be right before.anyway there's not much else happening but that could be something there in the Carribean about to explode.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
1318. GatorWX
3:10 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1316. GatorWX:


Ahhh, I always thought the set of graphics for the continent were the only ones for NAM. Never clicked NAM first to see what regions were available. Now I know and I thank ya.


Meant to quote 1310.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1317. Sfloridacat5
3:09 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1312. sunlinepr:
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....



That spot is ridiculous when its on. Need to be on you game.
The biggest clean surf I've ever riden was in Baha Mexico during a high surf advisory. Solid 15ft and clean. The drop and bottom turn was scary. Once you made the drop it wasn't that bad. But that drop separated the men from the boys.
A couple of my buddies got slammed on their first drop and sat on the beach the rest of the day. lol
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
1316. GatorWX
3:09 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1311. Sfloridacat5:
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.


Ahhh, I always thought the set of graphics for the continent were the only ones for NAM. Never clicked NAM first to see what regions were available. Now I know and I thank ya.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1315. Sfloridacat5
3:06 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1310. nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.


Beat me to it. I posted this late yesterday.
But as we know, the NAM isn't to be trusted when it comes to TC Genesis.
But the NAM does get it right occasionally.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
1314. catastropheadjuster
3:05 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Grothar, I have read what you wrote and I for one really wish you wouldn't leave. I sit every morning with my first, second cup of coffee and read what you write and what everyone has to say first thing in the morning and wait for the sideboard for breakfast. I joined WU and have talked with many of you on here but a lot of times I just lurk and when I ask a ? like the other day you answered it. So please don't leave, you will be dearly missed and we need you here. You are very liked and loved her by many. So please rethink this crazy thought your having. You bring a lot of laughter and humor to the blog and a lot of good facts.

Your friend,
sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1313. GatorWX
3:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1307. barbamz:


Gator, I've read back that you're going to visit Europe for the first time. Welcome :) May I ask - just out of curiosity - if you plan to stay just in Spain or travel around?


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there in '08. We've stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1312. sunlinepr
3:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
1311. Sfloridacat5
3:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
1310. nrtiwlnvragn
3:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1305. GatorWX:


This what you're referring to?



Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1309. sunlinepr
3:02 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
1308. GeorgiaStormz
3:00 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1300. Bluestorm5:


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes


Yeah they are out.
I was gonna buy them, but 250 is a lot.
The middle one for 135 isnt one i would wear.
Maybe if it's still around by christmas :P

Quoting 1302. GatorWX:


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.



try Footlocker

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
1307. barbamz
2:59 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1302. GatorWX:


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.


Gator, I've read back that you're going to visit Europe for the first time. Welcome :) May I ask - just out of curiosity - if you plan to stay just in Spain or travel around?
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5020
1306. GatorWX
2:59 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1305. GatorWX
2:57 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1301. unknowncomic:
the latest Nam is showing something suspicious at 84 hours. I cannot post it as I am on my phone.


This what you're referring to?

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1304. LoxahatcheeIA
2:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Been on the sidelines many years but one of the main reasons I come on here is for gros wisdom with out him blog will never b the same
Member Since: July 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1303. GreyJewel
2:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
I, too, have been here much longer than my membership date implies. Although I don't talk much (I'm basically just a lurker), I'm glad I signed up recently so that I can speak when I feel the need. And right now I want to encourage Gro to do what's best for him, and Godspeed.

Just like the active chatters, though, there are probably lots of other nonentities like me who would miss his input.
Member Since: June 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1302. GatorWX
2:55 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1300. Bluestorm5:


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1301. unknowncomic
2:55 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
the latest Nam is showing something suspicious at 84 hours. I cannot post it as I am on my phone.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
1300. Bluestorm5
2:54 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1298. GeorgiaStormz:


I thought they didnt come out till december?
They're at footlocker right?
I also heard someone made customized nike elites socks to wear witht them...but they're very expensive (custom made)

I see we have the orange circle.....

Stateside wx is still quiet
At least football is back....till the wx wakes up.


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7467
1299. barbamz
2:53 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Fresh BBC-weather video, starting with a report about unusual strong, devastating in some cases deadly rainfalls in Mali; the following metereological explanations should be known to most of our bloggers. And BTW, Ben Rich still holds on to the numbers of an (future) above average hurricane season (lol?).

From heavy rain to Hurricane
BBC weather video, 30 August 2013 Last updated at 14:45
Ben Rich explains how the recent rainfall in Mali could lead to increased Tropical storm activity across North America and the Caribbean.

Where Mali is situated (map from wiki):
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5020
1298. GeorgiaStormz
2:51 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



I thought they didnt come out till december?
They're at footlocker right?
I also heard someone made customized nike elites socks to wear witht them...but they're very expensive (custom made)

I see we have the orange circle.....

Stateside wx is still quiet
At least football is back....till the wx wakes up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
1297. Xandtar
2:49 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1266. OviedoWatcher:


Gro

As a long term lurker (pre-Katrina despite my apparent join date), I can say that there are people on here that eppreciate your comments and your humor and read them in their entirity, even if we don't say much in return. I am an engineer, not a met by training, so I prefer not to provide my 'expert opinion' on what is going on. There are a number of contributors to this blog who are less than civil, but many decent people who appreciate your comments too. Keep up the comments and remember that your 'fans' are backing you ;-)


This.

If you're not back, please know that I have learned much from your insight over the years, though I don't pretend to be anything more than an interested amateur. Thank you for all you've done for the silent majority here. You will not be forgotten.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1296. GatorWX
2:48 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Everyone that posted kind words towards Grothar, thanks. It made me feel good knowing I'm here with you all. Nice to see that stuff! Respect, One Love!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1294. GatorWX
2:46 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



Demand??
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1293. DrMickey
2:46 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Gro,

I have enjoyed your finely-tuned wit and your wisdom of the ages as well. You have a depth of knowledge and insight that many can only hope to achieve.

If this task of blogging on WU is now checked off your bucket list and you are moving on to another item, please remember that those of us who read your posts and smiled or who gained a new perspective from them have also felt admiration and respect for you, sir.

Live long and prosper, Gro.
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1292. biff4ugo
2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
We should be able to 3D Print our shoes soon.
The storp pixels are cool.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
1291. Bluestorm5
2:39 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



EDIT: The shoe on the very far right is $250. The middle shoe is $135. The left one will be released later this month.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7467
1290. K8eCane
2:38 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Its a sad situation when Gro leaves
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
1289. ScottLincoln
2:38 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1284. islander101010:
its good to see twc bringing it to the table this yr. they need a storm .

I couldn't believe it... last night they actually had to break in to "Coast Guard: Alaska" and "Why Planes Crash" to briefly talk about that tornado warning in Minnesota!
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2877
1288. Dragod66
2:34 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1273. HoraceDebussyJones:


I am not sure why I get on this blog every day when there is no apparent storm threat, however, I need to see what's on the sideboard, what Dexter is doing and how many times CaribBoy can say boring. Most of all, I truly enjoy all of the comments, knowledge and sense of humor Gro brings to this community.

Gro, I would ask you to stay on as long as possible, perhaps selfishly, since without you these discussions would lose a lot of their soul.



Gro has the amazing talent of being able to be funny and poke fun while not being rude. I honestly don't know how he does it, maybe because so many people respect him here. Im just worried that If he decides to leave that the tension cutting humor that he does so well will be gone and this place will have to be abandoned.
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 576
1287. Bluestorm5
2:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Quoting 1280. ScottLincoln:

Unfortunately, there are many other variables at play. Some that we don't always have a great handle on, at least on an individual year's timescale. Many of the other variables are piling against warm sea surface temperatures.
It really is a mystery that this season isn't living up to the hype and what is seemly favorable conditions (correct me if I'm wrong). This stuff is also why I love meteorology as you're always trying to figure out the atmosphere, who are throwing all kind of pitches at you. Seem like Mother Nature learn a new pitch to throw at us.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7467
1286. K8eCane
2:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
Well I hope whoever felt like they had to troll Grothar is satisfied. maturity is an asset.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
1285. canyonboy
2:31 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
um, can you guys work on your sensitivity training, hold hands and sing "kumbaya" on another forum. :)

Ignoring other people's opinions you don't like is part of 'turn the other cheek'.
Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 28

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.