Unprecedented Cut in Colorado River Flow Ordered, Due to Drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2013

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For the first time in history, the U.S. government has ordered that flow of Colorado River water from the 50-year-old Glen Canyon Dam be slashed, due to a water crisis brought about by the region's historic 14-year drought. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation--a division of the Department of Interior that manages water and electric power in the West--announced that it would cut water released from Lake Powell's Glen Canyon Dam by 750,000 acre-feet in 2014. An acre-foot is the amount of water that will cover an acre of land one foot deep; 750,000 acre-feet is enough water to supply at least 750,000 homes for one year. The flow reduction will leave the Colorado River 9% below the 8.23 million acre feet that is supposed to be supplied downstream to Lake Mead for use in California, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico under the Colorado River Compact of 1922 and later agreements. "This is the worst 14-year drought period in the last hundred years," said Upper Colorado Regional Director Larry Walkoviak in a Bureau of Reclamation press release.

In the winter of 2005, Lake Powell reached its lowest level since filling, an elevation 150' below full pool. Lake levels recovered some in during 2005 - 2011, but the resurgence of severe to extreme drought conditions have provoked a steep decline in 2012 and 2013, with the lake falling 35' over the past year. As of August 18, 2013, Lake Powell was 109' below full pool (45% of capacity), and was falling at a rate of one foot every six days.


Figure 1. Satellite comparisons of water levels in Arizona and Utah's Lake Powell between 1999 and 2013 show a huge reduction in the amount of water in the lake. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.


Figure 2. From October 1, 2012 - July 31, 2013, precipitation over the Colorado River Watershed was about 80% of average. Image credit: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Las Vegas' Water Supply, Lake Mead, Near a Record Low
Downstream of Lake Powell lies Lake Mead, filled in 1936 when Hoover Dam was completed. Lake Mead supplies Las Vegas with ninety percent of its drinking water, and the water level of Lake Mead is expected to fall by eight feet in 2014 due to the lower water flow levels out of Lake Powell ordered on Friday. Lake Mead has fallen by 100 feet since the current 14-year drought began in 2000, and the higher of the two intake pipes used to supply Las Vegas with water from the lake is in danger of running dry. As a result, a seven-year, $800 million project is underway by the Southern Nevada Water Authority to build a third intake pipe that will tap the deepest part of the reservoir. This so-called "third straw" is scheduled to be available late in 2014, which may be cutting it close, if the Colorado River watershed experiences another year of drought as severe as in 2012 - 2013. Southern Nevada has done well to reduce water usage, though--the region's annual water consumption decreased by nearly 29 billion gallons between 2002 and 2012, despite a population increase of more than 400,000 during that span.


Figure 3. Lake Mead water levels from 1938 - 2013 in July show a precipitous drop since drought conditions gripped the Western U.S. in 2000. The Lake Mead photo was taken by wunderphotographer LAjoneson June 29, 2007, when the lake had a "bathtub ring" 109' tall. Water level data from The Bureau of Reclamation.


Figure 4. Workers handle the main drive sections of the tunnel boring machine that is drilling a 3-mile long tunnel through solid rock to supply Las Vegas with water from Lake Mead. The new intake tunnel is designed to maintain the ability to draw upon Colorado River water at lake elevations as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. The lake already has two intake pipes, and the higher of these will go dry when the lake level hits 1050' - 1075'. As of August 2013, the Lake Mead water level was 1106' above sea level, which is 114' below full pool, but 24' above the record low water level of 1081' set in November 2010. Image credit: Southern Nevada Water Authority.

Drought conditions worsen over Southwest U.S. in August
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the Western U.S. drought peaked in July 2002, when 79% of the West was in at least severe drought, and 45% of the region was in the two highest categories of drought--extreme to exceptional. However, drought conditions have been steadily intensifying this summer. The August 13, 2013 Drought Monitor report showed that drought conditions in the Western U.S. are now the worst since 2004, with 78% of the West in at least severe drought, and 20% in the two highest categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued on August 15, calls for drought to remain entrenched over the large majority of the Western U.S. through the end of November.


Figure 5. As of August 13, 2013, severe to exceptional drought gripped nearly all of the Colorado RIver's watershed in Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, California, and Colorado. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC.

Causes of the great Western U.S. drought
It is well-known that natural variations in sea surface temperature patterns, such as seen from the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, can influence storm tracks and can cause prolonged periods of drought. These natural variations likely had a hand in causing the great 2000 - 2013 Western U.S. drought. However, changes in the amount of sea ice covering the Arctic can also have a major impact on Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. We must consider if global warming, which has led to a 50% decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, may be altering storm tracks and contributing to drought. In 2004, Lisa Sloan, professor of Earth sciences at UC Santa Cruz, and her graduate student Jacob Sewall published an article in Geophysical Research Letters, Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west. An accompanying news release explained that their climate models found "a significant reduction in rain and snowfall in the American West” as a result of Arctic sea ice loss:

What they found was a change in atmospheric circulation patterns that caused a small northward shift in the paths of winter storms over western North America. This shift in winter storm tracks resulted in significantly reduced winter precipitation from southern British Columbia to the Gulf of California. In some areas, average annual precipitation dropped by as much as 30 percent. The reductions were greatest along the West Coast, with lesser changes further inland. But even as far inland as the Rocky Mountains, winter precipitation fell by 17 percent.

The sea ice acts like a lid over the ocean surface during the winter, blocking the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, Sewall explained. Where the sea ice is reduced, heat transfer from the ocean warms the atmosphere, resulting in a rising column of relatively warm air. The shift in storm tracks over North America was linked to the formation of these columns of warmer air over areas of reduced sea ice in the Greenland Sea and a few other locations.


A follow-up paper by Dr. Sewall in 2005, "Precipitation Shifts over Western North America as a Result of Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover: The Coupled System Response", used a more sophisticated modeling technique but confirmed the results of the 2004 paper. In a June 2013 interview with climateprogress.org, Dr. Sewall commented:

"I think the hypothesis from 2004 and 2005 is being borne out by current changes. The only real difference is that reality is moving faster than we thought/hoped it would almost a decade ago."


Figure 6. The area of the Western U.S. in drought peaked during 2002 - 2004, but during 2013 has been approaching levels not seen since 2004. Image credit: U.S. Drought Portal.

Western North America drought of 2000 - 2004 the worst in over 800 years
The Colorado River's water woes are due to an extraordinary 14-year drought that began in 2000, which peaked during 2000 - 2004. A 2012 study titled, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, found that the 2000 - 2004 drought was the most severe Western North America event of its kind since the last mega drought over 800 years ago, during the years 1146 - 1151. The paper analyzed the latest generation of climate models used for the 2013 IPCC report, which project that the weather conditions that spawned the 2000 - 2004 drought will be the new normal in the Western U.S. by 2030, and will be considered extremely wet by the year 2100. If these dire predictions of a coming "megadrought" are anywhere close to correct, it will be extremely challenging for the Southwest U.S. to support a growing population in the coming decades.


Figure 7. Normalized precipitation over Western North America (five-year mean) from 22 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, as summarized by Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. The horizontal line marks the precipitation level of the 2000 - 2004 drought, the worst of the past 800 years. Droughts of this intensity are predicted to be the new normal by 2030, and will be considered an outlier of extreme wetness by 2100. The paper states: "This impending drydown of western North America is consistent with present trends in snowpack decline as well as expected in-creases in aridity and extreme climate events,including drought, and is driven by anthropogenically forced increases in temperature with coincident increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture. Although regional precipitation patterns are difficult to forecast, climate models tend to underestimate the extent and severity of drought relative to available observations. As such, actual reductions in precipitation may be greater than shown. Forecasted precipitation patterns are consistent with a probable twenty-first century megadrought." Image credit: Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience 5, 551-555, Published online 29 JULY 2012, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1529, www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.

Related posts
Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger, my November 2012 post.

National Geographic has an excellent interactive satellite image that shows the difference in Lake Powell water levels between 1999 and 2013.

How Two Reservoirs Have Become Billboards For What Climate Change Is Doing To The American West, August 12, 2013 climateprogress.org post by Tom Kenworthy.

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?, June 2013 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Twenty Cities At Risk of Water Shortages, August 14, 2013 wunderground news post by Nick Wiltgen

References
Sewall, Jacob O., 2005, Precipitation Shifts over Western North America as a Result of Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover: The Coupled System Response, Earth Interact., 9, 1–23. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/EI171.1

Sewall, J.O., and L.C. Sloan, 2004, Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06209, doi:10.1029/2003GL019133. Accompanying news release.

Jeff Masters

Lake Mead - low water (clicks4fun)
Colorado River has been struggling to survive. Predictions of its future are grim in the headlines. Hopefully scientists will figure out how to resolve this bad situation.
Lake Mead - low water
Storm Clouds over Lake Powell, Glen Canyon NRA (catjuice)
Lake Powell, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, AZ
Storm Clouds over Lake Powell, Glen Canyon NRA

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

2. A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13923
Quoting Bluestorm5:
LOL, I see your kangaroos and raise you black bears. We do get bears hanging around in The Quad once in awhile. Haven't seen one yet.


but do they laze around in the sun or look to eat someone?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15891
Quoting 798. Ameister12:
Didn't even get to see what happened! Nice job, Mods! :)
Blog automatically remove it if you get enough minuses or "!" clicks and mods don't even have to do it themselves.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Quoting 798. Ameister12:
Didn't even get to see what happened! Nice job, Mods! :)


I didn't get to see it either. Lol. That was probably the community, though. Not mods.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 802. tornadodude:


Major hurricanes recurving certainly isn't boring.

However, let's be honest, a major hurricane threatening the US isn't boring either. It's riveting, compelling, and fascinating. I'm not using these adjectives in a joyful connotation either, so don't misquote me.

Does that mean I like to see major hurricanes make landfall? Absolutely not. It's awful. But I would be lying if I wasn't captivated by the storm, the coverage, etc.

The meteorological aspect of it is phenomenal. It's intriguing. I can't help but watch and learn. When a storm does threaten, almost all of us are glued to the TV coverage. We read all the news stories. We tune in to the live reports. Why? Not because we like death and destruction, but, rather, we are humans that thrive on being entertained. The more dramatic something is, the more entertaining we perceive it, like it or not.

Plus 10000 times
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
stop lieing n 72 hours from now we have a tropical low or tropical d with 1005mb!!

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 12829
Quoting 796. AussieStorm:


Almost as good as lunch yesterday here at Uni,,,,

LOL, I see your kangaroos and raise you black bears. We do get bears hanging around in The Quad once in awhile. Haven't seen one yet.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Quoting 770. wxchaser97:

This^
With how things are, you can't get a major hurricane to make landfall in the US without there being a lot of death and destruction, even if it would be cool to get a Cat-5 landfall from a meteorological perspective. I don't understand how major hurricanes recurving OTS are boring, a major hurricane is a major hurricane.


Major hurricanes recurving certainly isn't boring.

However, let's be honest, a major hurricane threatening the US isn't boring either. It's riveting, compelling, and fascinating. I'm not using these adjectives in a joyful connotation either, so don't misquote me.

Does that mean I like to see major hurricanes make landfall? Absolutely not. It's awful. But I would be lying if I wasn't captivated by the storm, the coverage, etc.

The meteorological aspect of it is phenomenal. It's intriguing. I can't help but watch and learn. When a storm does threaten, almost all of us are glued to the TV coverage. We read all the news stories. We tune in to the live reports. Why? Not because we like death and destruction, but, rather, we are humans that thrive on being entertained. The more dramatic something is, the more entertaining we perceive it, like it or not.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
801. PensacolaDoug
11:40 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 794. HimacaneBrees:
that didn't take long


Sure didn't. Gotta be some kind of record!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
800. Civicane49
11:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

2. A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
799. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Pewa has a nice structure but its low-level circulation is completely exposed. Needs convection or it will degenerate.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31316
798. Ameister12
11:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Didn't even get to see what happened! Nice job, Mods! :)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4888
797. Tropicsweatherpr
11:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
No mention of any area at 8 PM.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13923
796. AussieStorm
11:34 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just went on a half mile hike uphill to see this view. This is my favorite spot in the whole UNC-Asheville campus. Romantic, isn't it?



Almost as good as lunch yesterday here at Uni,,,,

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15891
795. sar2401
11:31 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


Hmm...neither global land or ocean temperatures have been "flat". Link

Anyways, this argument fails to address one major problem and that is a lack of basic understanding of what global warming is. Just because there is an anthropogenic forcing doesn't mean that all the other forcings cease to exist. In fact, it's awfully troubling that despite some pretty negative natural forcings like Cool/Neutral and La Nina episodes, a low point in the solar cycle, etc., that we still have seen a continued trend of increasing temperature in both oceanic heat content and over land.

I for one would love if global warming were to stop or cease to exist, but unfortunately the more CO2 we dump into the atmosphere, the less heat energy can escape into space, and the more heat energy is added to our environment.

The UK Met Office has published a paper last month dealing with this issue. The first paragraph in the executive summary is:
"Global mean surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s, but have been relatively flat
over the most recent 15 years to 2013. This has prompted speculation that human induced
global warming is no longer happening, or at least will be much smaller than predicted.
Others maintain that this is a temporary pause and that temperatures will again rise at rates
seen previously."

Not surprisingly, the UK Met Office then goes on for 25 pages to make the case that this relatively flat period of global warming is indeed a pause in the large warming shown by other factors than just global mean temperatures. Nevertheless, you either believe the UK Met's statement is true or that the UK Met is wrong. You can't simply dismiss the statement by saying the trend in global land and ocean temperature over the past 15 years being flat is simply not true. The numbers don't lie, although there may be explanations as to why the relatively small rise in global temperatures over the past 15 years also don't show that somehow, global warming has come to a halt.

UK Met Paper Link
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12745
794. HimacaneBrees
11:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
that didn't take long
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
793. tornadodude
11:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
792. Drakoen
11:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
. :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
791. Patrap
11:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
O boy'

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
789. Patrap
11:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
The word "weak" and Hurricane should not be in the same sentence I firmly believe.

74 Mph winds kill, in many ways.

Objects flying from Glass to Billboards,

Accumulating surge, "Isaac"

Flooding Rains...

yada, yada, yada
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
788. wunderweatherman123
11:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
no recurve is guranted
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1278
787. HimacaneBrees
11:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 784. Patrap:


Actually I was 5 miles South there of ol Non Hard Hat in a Hurricane Jim..

Delivering Pups.


LOL


Yeah my mom called me during the middle of it wanting to know how we were doing... I told her I was going to shave my head, take the kids Karaoke microphone, find a blue wind breaker and go out in the rain and play Jim Cantore.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
786. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:23 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 770. wxchaser97:

This^
With how things are, you can't get a major hurricane to make landfall in the US without there being a lot of death and destruction, even if it would be cool to get a Cat-5 landfall from a meteorological perspective. I don't understand how major hurricanes recurving OTS are boring, a major hurricane is a major hurricane.
A major hurricane is a scale on the saffir-simpson scale the only difference between a strong Category 2 hurricane and a weak Category 3 hurricane is 5 mph wind speeds. Irene and Sandy were multi-billion dollar storms and caused just about the same amount of damage as a major hurricane would cause if not even more damage. I don't think they will ever do away with the scale, but we pay too much attention to it, and saying the US hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in 8 years is such a misnomer that it's not even funny.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7360
785. hurricanes2018
11:22 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
ghost lows are lows with no rain and t.storms
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 12829
784. Patrap
11:22 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 781. HimacaneBrees:
Cantore doing some Tebowing last year. I remember watching this and him saying something like "Ahh the rain is stinging my head" Well grow some hair, wear a hat or move behind the building lol. All I know is if there is a storm out there and this guy shows up near your house, then head north.




Actually I was 5 miles South there of ol Non Hard Hat in a Hurricane Jim..

Delivering Pups.


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
783. HimacaneBrees
11:22 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 766. Patrap:
Is that a re-curve or 3 maybe?



All known Tracks







Looks like one of my old Kindergarten coloring books.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
782. Patrap
11:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
What if we create a better World for Nothing ?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
781. HimacaneBrees
11:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Cantore doing some Tebowing last year. I remember watching this and him saying something like "Ahh the rain is stinging my head" Well grow some hair, wear a hat or move behind the building lol. All I know is if there is a storm out there and this guy shows up near your house, then head north.


Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
780. Bluestorm5
11:19 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
I'm blessed to live in such a wonderful area. Loving college UNC-Asheville so far!

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
779. JLPR2
11:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
The ghost of Erin moved past 50W around 18N

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8482
778. Doppler22
11:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 754. Bluestorm5:
Just went on a half mile hike uphill to see this view. This is my favorite spot in the whole UNC-Asheville campus. Romantic, isn't it?


Kinda reminds me of what I saw in Southern Virginia. A very nice area
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
777. Econundertow
11:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2013


RE, drought in SW:

"Hopefully scientists will figure out how to resolve this bad situation."

They can wring their hands like everyone else ...
Member Since: December 20, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
775. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 766. Patrap:
Is that a re-curve or 3 maybe?



All known Tracks





Somewhere in the midst of that pile of rubble lies the Caribbean Sea and all its islands, the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Texas is such a big state it will probably take 200 more years to fill it up.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7360
774. Drakoen
11:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Wave near 5W continues to look healthy.



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
773. oceanspringsMS
11:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Regarding the environment, why is it political? Funny thing this year is a lot of places south of the Mason-Dixon line are setting record lows, and having cool summers, including us on the MS coast. A lot of places North are having record highs. Who cares? In the long run, isn't it smart to reduce material pollution and air emission pollution as much as technology and personal habits allow.
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
772. MAweatherboy1
11:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
The GFS ensembles are in very good agreement that this next wave will develop, which makes me a little more willing to believe what the operational GFS is showing (at least for the first 7 days) despite the lack of support from other models.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7565
771. HimacaneBrees
11:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 760. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree if you have been through one you know what it is like. I have never been through a hurricane, eventually one will make landfall again somewhere in the US and if I have the time I wouldn't mind going for a chase. But never wish harm, death, and destruction on people because it could come back on you. I guess some of us haven't been through one and would like to seek the thrill and adrenaline rush that comes with one, but while it may be fun during the instant the storm strikes, there is also a price to pay, clean up during the aftermath. There is always 2 sides to a story. ;)



Isaac last year would've been a good one for you to ride out. But If it gets any worse than that, then they aren't fun at all.

Let me modify my comment, Isaac really wasn't fun at all for those that had serious flood damage. But as far as wind goes Isaac wasn't very bad.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
770. wxchaser97
11:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 765. Ameister12:

I'd rather see a major hurricane hit absolutely nothing rather than seeing a major hurricanes hit land and cause death and destruction.

This^
With how things are, you can't get a major hurricane to make landfall in the US without there being a lot of death and destruction, even if it would be cool to get a Cat-5 landfall from a meteorological perspective. I don't understand how major hurricanes recurving OTS are boring, a major hurricane is a major hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
769. Naga5000
11:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 759. Dakster:


it was a Joke... Carry on.

Discussing it or not, doesn't upset me. I don't care what side of the room you are on. I also learn something.


No worries, I just didn't get it. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3194
768. Naga5000
11:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 762. bjrabbit:
Hey Doc: Interesting article, but going back to the Arctic sea ice topic...I notice you haven't had any panicky articles about the ice for THIS year...mmmm could it be that there was plenty of ice this year?

Bert


No not another record breaking sea ice loss, but still on pace for a possibly top 5 finish and almost 2 standard deviations from the 1981-2010 mean. A decreasing trend in sea ice doesn't mean we need to break records year after year. Link


Also, the ice looks pretty terrible

Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3194
767. tornadodude
11:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 760. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree if you have been through one you know what it is like. I have never been through a hurricane, eventually one will make landfall again somewhere in the US and if I have the time I wouldn't mind going for a chase. But never wish harm, death, and destruction on people because it could come back on you. I guess some of us haven't been through one and would like to seek the thrill and adrenaline rush that comes with one, but while it may be fun during the instant the storm strikes, there is also a price to pay, clean up during the aftermath. There is always 2 sides to a story. ;)


I've intercepted two hurricanes, Irene at Atlantic Beach, NC and Isaac in Gulfport, MS. I won't lie. I had fun experiencing the raw power of the hurricanes. It's the same sort of awe that strikes me when I'm out chasing incredible supercells and tornadoes. Something about seeing nature at her worst is breathtaking.

I've always helped with cleanup, donations, etc. after storms. I don't wish to see destruction. But, if a big storm is threatening, I do want to be there to document it.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
766. Patrap
11:11 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Is that a re-curve or 3 maybe?



All known Tracks





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
765. Ameister12
11:11 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 726. wunderweatherman123:
SAME OLD you know what. i want variety not the same stuff over and over again -__-

I'd rather see every major hurricane hit absolutely nothing rather than seeing a bunch of major hurricanes hit land and cause death and destruction.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4888
764. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 761. Dakster:


3 sides. Yours, Mine, and what really happened.
LOL good one. True that. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7360
763. mitthbevnuruodo
11:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 748. Dakster:


Yes and you get to catch all sorts of weather phenomenon along the way too. Went thru a Haboob in the S/W the year before. That was interesting and scary and the same time. Weird cloud formations. Rain storms, hail storms. Heck snow in June in the mountains.

I wish I could have seen the Northern lights, but in the summer it doesn't get 'dark' until after midnight.

Motorhome/Campers are a positive and a negative. I took roads to places you couldn't take one of those. Not sure where I would've been able to park it while I did take those roads either. Plus the COST to fuel one is incredible. And where I went most of the time you would be 'dry' camping anyways. I like the Hotel/Motel options. Although a good compromise would be a conversion van with a bathroom and couch - like they do to the Dodge sprinter's.


Ah yes, a few things annoying about the UK...doesn't get dark in the summer until after 10pm (and no astronomical twilight at all, so like, never dark dark really) and narrow roads! Probably the same in most of Europe with the roads! LOL Hard for someone from the US with big, wide roads. I have a very small car for that reason (along with gas prices being even way worse here), and am still wary about most the roads here! haha

Well, I do love staying at hotels...just the thought of parking up somewhere at a whim is cool. But I dunno if that's easier over here than there. Here, can pull alongside a road or even freeway, and park for the night usually!

I remember when I was a kid, always hounding my mom to get a van conversion :P

Weird clouds freak me out though! hahaha Guess cause have always lived in pretty mellow weather places...when I see photos of them...ARGH!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 839
762. bjrabbit
11:09 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Hey Doc: Interesting article, but going back to the Arctic sea ice topic...I notice you haven't had any panicky articles about the ice for THIS year...mmmm could it be that there was plenty of ice this year?

Bert
Member Since: March 16, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
761. Dakster
11:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 760. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree if you have been through one you know what it is like. I have never been through a hurricane, eventually one will make landfall again somewhere in the US and if I have the time I wouldn't mind going for a chase. But never wish harm, death, and destruction on people because it could come back on you. I guess some of us haven't been through one and would like to seek the thrill and adrenaline rush that comes with one, but while it may be fun during the instant the storm strikes, there is also a price to pay, clean up during the aftermath. There is always 2 sides to a story. ;)


3 sides. Yours, Mine, and what really happened.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
760. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:06 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
Quoting 745. watchingnva:
YAY FOR FISH STORMS!!! something to track, and I get to not have a chance of damage and weeks with no power...double bonus! School really needs to start back up, hoping for land-falling strong storms is absurd...
I agree if you have been through one you know what it is like. I have never been through a hurricane, eventually one will make landfall again somewhere in the US and if I have the time I wouldn't mind going for a chase. But never wish harm, death, and destruction on people because it could come back on you. I guess some of us haven't been through one and would like to seek the thrill and adrenaline rush that comes with one, but while it may be fun during the instant the storm strikes, there is also a price to pay, clean up during the aftermath. There is always 2 sides to a story. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.