92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

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Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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2491. luvtogolf
2:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
You all know that you are not allowed to talk about your beautiful cold weather! Unless it is "unprecedented" you will get shot down.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1288
2490. Tazmanian
1:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 2481. Sfloridacat5:
Buoy closest to 92L is reporting NNE at 16 mph, wave heights 4.3 ft.
29.91 pressure.




There is no 92L plzs call it ex 92L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
2489. vis0
9:00 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2303. Dakster:


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.

those are not yellow-jackets, they're mosquitoes w/life life-jackets.
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 262 Comments: 588
2488. vis0
8:52 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2272. EcoLogic:
Attention panhandle Sunday school teachers...time to break out your Genesis 7 lesson
Was that the part where Sonic went into space!...SEGA!
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 262 Comments: 588
2487. mfcmom
5:14 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2486. GTstormChaserCaleb:
There has to be some flooding going on up in the Panhandle.



Nice why does it seem this is the only model glitching out lately?


There already is. It is just awful. Panama City is getting pounded.
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2486. GTstormChaserCaleb
4:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
There has to be some flooding going on up in the Panhandle.



Nice why does it seem this is the only model glitching out lately?

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
2485. hydrus
4:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2433. Matt1989:
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.
It looks like that now mat, even the models show little in activity ,but things can change quick. The is alot of low pressure out there and waves to watch, and there will be many more.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
2484. Jedkins01
4:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2366. LargoFl:
yeah yesterday was 50% and i got about 3 raindrops lol..well we'll see what happens..west coast seabreeze is supposed to be stuck along the west coast for awhile..that should help rain chances.


Yeah coverage looks like it will be good today, developing southeast flow and a lot more sun today. Not full heating, but a lot more heating than the overcast conditions that dominated 80 to 90% of the last 2 days.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
2483. interpreter
3:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2478. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why you guys continue to quote people that are only here to disrupt the blog is beyond me.

Sorry not saying what you would like to hear. Need to face the facts that the conditions for this season do provide tropical cyclone development and that these conditions thankfully will persist throughout the remainder of this season.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2482. AllyBama
3:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2455. weatherman994:
2433. Matt1989 thats what im saying its like these seasons just keep being busts they are not like how they used 2 be.


I have to ask. Do either you or Matt1989 live along the coast? I wonder.
I admit I love seeing the formation of a beautiful storm, it is truly a gift from nature...and as much as I enjoy the adrenalin rush when a storm enters the gulf, I do not enjoy the destruction and pain that a storm brings. I am not crying and whining if a storm doesn't form this year. I will get down on my knees and thank God that lives, homes and property were not destroyed and that the storms are "not like how they used 2 be"..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
2481. Sfloridacat5
3:34 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Buoy closest to 92L is reporting NNE at 16 mph, wave heights 4.3 ft.
29.91 pressure.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8982
2480. Patrap
3:34 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2471. Dakster:


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?


Laundry,

Galley, Food

Cleaning

Service hand can be from electricians to contract divers working on the rig as well.

There are many jobs offshore besides driller,Crane operator, Safety Man, Company Man.Safety folk, Toolpusher(Rig Boss), Derrick hands...etc.


Hercules 21 and me in mid 90's, for Chevron.



Now for a production platform they are many, many, more

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
2479. interpreter
3:32 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2453. CybrTeddy:


No use on quoting interpreter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.

The conditions are different and the weather pattern more persistent than in those previous analog seasons you referred to. Nothing on the horizon now. I do think the tropics will be relatively quite until mid-September. No threats to the US this year. You don't have to worry about billions of dollars of damage happening somewhere this year in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2478. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Why you guys continue to quote people that are only here to disrupt the blog is beyond me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
2477. daddyjames
3:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
new blog folks. Dr. JM upped the ante.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2476. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2475. LAbonbon
3:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2436. ColoradoBob1:
More than 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell on the Amur, Khabarovsk and Primorye regions from July 1 through Aug. 12, causing floods there and in the neighboring Jewish Autonomous Region, according to data from the weather center. Some areas in the Far East received a year’s rain in the period, the center said yesterday.

“We have never seen such a large-scale flood in our country’s history,” Alexander Frolov, chief forecaster at the center, said today on state television channel Rossiya 24. “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.”


Link


From the article “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.” That's a huge area, about a thousand miles between the two.

Thanks for posting.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1833
2474. daddyjames
3:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2471. Dakster:


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?


Ask patrap - not me.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2473. CybrTeddy
3:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Pewa looks likely to cross the International date line and strengthen in the western Pacific as a typhoon. We haven't seen something like this as Ioke, although naturally it'll be much weaker.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
2472. daddyjames
3:29 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2462. gator23:


That was annoying but if you watch the video he does couch it a lot


Come on, it was ridiculous. did not serve the public at all, and is a prime example of the over-dramatization of the "news".

Now, back to the impending doom developing in the BOC/SE Gulf ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2471. Dakster
3:28 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2470. daddyjames:


had faith that you would know.


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2470. daddyjames
3:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2468. Patrap:


Service hands.

Utility folk,



had faith that you would know.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2469. AllyBama
3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2452. Dakster:


You're going to be rolling with the tide?


lol...and in more ways than one! I actually live about a mile or so out of the flood zone in Mobile. So if it ever flooded at my house everything east of I-65 and south of Hwy 90 would be underwater bigtime!
Oh yeah, ROLL TIDE!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
2468. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2458. daddyjames:


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).


Service hands.

Utility folk,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
2467. hurricanes2018
3:25 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100675
2465. Dakster
3:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2458. daddyjames:


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).


I didn't take offense - trust me... I thought I was being messed with when it was first posted.

I didn't think 'non-essential' people would be on an oil rig either. IIRC, someone on the blog here works or worked on a rig, maybe they will chime in on who these non-essential folks are?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2464. centex
3:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
The low level vort has really elongated in last 12 hours. Normally means weakening but I'm not sure when low level vort increases under ULL.

Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
2463. EcoLogic
3:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
4.7" and counting in Gulf Breeze...
Member Since: June 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
2462. gator23
3:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2428. CybrTeddy:
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.


That was annoying but if you watch the video he does couch it a lot
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
2461. Sfloridacat5
3:22 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Currently 92L is very weak. Upper Level low combined with bone dry air to its West.

NAM offers the best solution for Texas.
12z NAM at 60 hours
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8982
2460. fredric1979
3:22 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2420. MisterPerfect:


I give your odds of 20%/30% for development 80%/80.5%

Let me check the math 20% divided by pie multiplied by 6 plus 2000 minus 1999 carry the 6 = yea I would say your correct. ( I think I blew a vessel in my head)
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
2459. TxLisa
3:22 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2352. ncstorm:
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Nearly three months after a massive tornado wound through Moore, Okla., destroying two elementary schools on the last day of school, parents and students headed back to class Friday for the first day of the new school year.

Two elementary schools, Briarwood and Plaza Towers Elementary, were destroyed in the EF-5 tornado that hit the Oklahoma City suburb. Twenty-four people were killed in the storm, including seven students from Plaza Towers Elementary.

On Friday morning, Plaza Towers Elementary students started a new school year with therapy dogs and a large banner that read "Plaza Towers Elementary School. Welcome."

The approximate 300 students are using a facility formerly used by the Central Junior High School, now nicknamed "Plaza 800," a combination of the elementary school's name and the building's former nickname.
Thoughts and prayers go out to those young children starting a new school year. As an elementary school counselor, I can truly say the death of those seven children will never be forgotten by the school personnel even as they start over. Thanks for the picture and text:)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
2458. daddyjames
3:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2446. Dakster:


I now that this is highly unlike me... But I was actually being serious.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-15/bus iness/sns-rt-us-storm-gulfofmexico-energy-20130815 _1_thunder-horse-oil-and-gas-platforms-nonessentia l-workers

Link


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2457. bigwes6844
3:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2445. CybrTeddy:


"I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience."

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


That storm, after a mostly inactive August, became Major Hurricane Danielle and lead the way to an insanely active August and September. The models are telling us this will occur soon as well as numerous Cape Verde hurricanes are possible.

00z GFS 384 hours illustrates what I mean, with the hurricane near the US coast being the African wave emerging off Africa now.



and to add on to teddy check out our Mojo too. Sounds pretty accurate what teddy saying.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
2456. Dakster
3:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2453. CybrTeddy:


No use on quoting interpeter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.


Thanks -- I guess the facts just get in the way then?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2455. weatherman994
3:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
2433. Matt1989 thats what im saying its like these seasons just keep being busts they are not like how they used 2 be.
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
2454. Patrap
3:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2448. AllyBama:
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.



Indeed allybama, some are gonna get Rain they def dont need.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
2453. CybrTeddy
3:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2450. Dakster:


And Today in 1992, What will be come Hurricane Andrew - the FIRST storm of that season - has just formed.

Or course, you could be correct in that nothing will form too.


No use on quoting interpreter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
2452. Dakster
3:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2448. AllyBama:
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.


You're going to be rolling with the tide?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2451. Skyepony (Mod)
3:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2412. Rmadillo:


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.


As soon as I noted the drop in winds they went back up..


haha derr~ Right here.. behave! lol..


ERIN click pic for loop..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39098
2450. Dakster
3:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2444. interpreter:
You can pretty much shut down the 2013 hurricane season. The system in the gulf will not develop. Erin in about done. There are several systems lined up in Africa poised to come off the coast and some look promising. But with the persistent TUTT across the gulf and the western Atlantic nothing can develop. Also the very dry air and the SAL across the MDR of the Atlantic is remaining persistent and in fact is becoming more extensive across the region. There are going to be more systems that will initially will pop up from time to time in the tropics, but as they move into the conditions mentioned above they will fall apart and dissipate. These conditions are forecast to persist for the remainder of the season. Soon waters in the northern portion of the tropical Atlantic will begin to cool with the forecast of an earlier than normal fall season beginning in September. We espect to have a total of only 10 named storms this season and the formation of 0 hurricanes.


And Today in 1992, What will be come Hurricane Andrew - the FIRST storm of that season - has just formed.

Or course, you could be correct in that nothing will form too.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2449. Patrap
3:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
400 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2013


Short term...
scenario painted yesterday morning and carried through on the
afternoon package is still in play for today's forecast. The upper low
pressure system located off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula is
spinning prominently in water vapor satellite imagery and is
nearly stationary approximately 22.3n latitude...90.5w longitude.
Convection was beginning to band in the northwest quadrant along
a stretching axis extended from the col located to the northwest
of the circulation. This feature is key in ultimatly determining
eventual track of this low pressure system. GFS model streamline
analysis aloft would suggest the col structure collapses in
response to digging trough later today...being replaced by deep
layered convergent flow from the central Gulf waters into the
central coastal region. Meanwhile...cut-off low over the middle of
the country with attendant jet structure extending from the southeast la
coast...through Alabama into the eastern Tennessee Valley. Right
rear quadrant dynamic lift poised vicinity of the Mississippi
River Delta to enhance convection and induce a weak surface
reflection low pressure center later today into this evening.
Surface frontolytic environment would also be conducive of low
level cyclogenesis. Convective feedback from south Gulf low will
be advecting northward today and become involved with north Gulf
low pressure developments to provide a brief period of enhanced
winds and seas in the marine areas east of the Mississippi River.
Forecast considerations over land areas would be efficient
rainfall processes across the Mississippi coastal counties where
best Gulf inflow would converge along frontolytic boundary draped
across that area and extending back across lower Plaquemines
Parish. Will indicate probability of precipitation ranging from 20 percent or less western
portions of forecast area /btr area/ where dry air influences
should limit coverage...to 70 percent in aforementioned areas of
higher impacts for today and this evening. The north Gulf low
pressure area /possible wake low aspects/ move inland overnight
and rapidly advance to the Tennessee Valley Sunday. This passage
should nudge the drier air aloft farther eastward to destabilize
column for Sunday to present a greater chance of downburst pulse
type convection during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile...lower Gulf
system should continue to move westward in time but upper support
may suppress development unless movement becomes more south of
west where shear would be minimal and influences from upper cut-
off low would be negligible. Nevertheless...no local impacts are
anticipated from this system aside from the convective
contributions heading our way today.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
2448. AllyBama
3:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
2447. interpreter
3:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2441. Rmadillo:
Wonderful north wind in LA providing relief from the sweltering sweaty sweat weather!

August must be the new October.

It is this year.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2446. Dakster
3:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2438. daddyjames:


Only if they were watching CNN. ;)


I now that this is highly unlike me... But I was actually being serious.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-15/bus iness/sns-rt-us-storm-gulfofmexico-energy-20130815 _1_thunder-horse-oil-and-gas-platforms-nonessentia l-workers

Link
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
2445. CybrTeddy
3:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Quoting 2433. Matt1989:
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.


"I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience."

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


That storm, after a mostly inactive August, became Major Hurricane Danielle and lead the way to an incredibly active August and September. The models are telling us this will occur soon as well as numerous Cape Verde hurricanes are possible.

00z GFS 384 hours illustrates what I mean, with the hurricane near the US coast being the African wave emerging off Africa now.


And what the heck is an "unactive" phase? The word you're looking for is an "inactive" phase.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
2444. interpreter
3:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
You can pretty much shut down the 2013 hurricane season. The system in the gulf will not develop. Erin in about done. There are several systems lined up in Africa poised to come off the coast and some look promising. But with the persistent TUTT across the gulf and the western Atlantic nothing can develop. Also the very dry air and the SAL across the MDR of the Atlantic is remaining persistent and in fact is becoming more extensive across the region. There are going to be more systems that will initially will pop up from time to time in the tropics, but as they move into the conditions mentioned above they will fall apart and dissipate. These conditions are forecast to persist for the remainder of the season. Soon waters in the northern portion of the tropical Atlantic will begin to cool with the forecast of an earlier than normal fall season beginning in September. We espect to have a total of only 10 named storms this season and the formation of 0 hurricanes.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
2443. Abacosurf
3:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
come on...if we all write the system off it will explode!!!
Sky my point for bringing up the 001 buoy was the wind switch to west.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 510
2442. weatherlover94
3:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Good day everybody. Yesterday was the 2nd day of school and everything was chaotic .....got some time today so Hi everybody I see I haven't missed that much...that wave near Africa looks good...Erin dying
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2229
2441. Rmadillo
3:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
Wonderful north wind in LA providing relief from the sweltering sweaty sweat weather!

August must be the new October.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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