Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2136. GTstormChaserCaleb:
See how convection holds up during the day for disturbance at 12 north 45 west.



That wave may be a sleeper down the road.
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Quoting 2080. LargoFl:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
534 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...Flash Flood Watch now in effect through Sunday evening for
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and thru Saturday
evening for Southwest and South Central Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend...

...Heavy rain is expected through the weekend with the Flood
threat increasing...



Watch is only for the Big Bend eastward and into Georgia and the Tallahassee forecast area. There is no watch for most of the Florida Panhandle or Mobile issued right now. Perhaps they are just catching up, but not that I have observed. There are people from those areas who read this blog and also check the NWS for Northwest Florida and Mobile regularly. Please be accurate in what you post. People have been devastated by flooding in Bay and Walton Counties. They don't need anything else to throw them into panic mode. My son lives in Milton.
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TS Erin looking kind of bare and the next one about to emerge off the coast of Africa.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
2139. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 2134. L1990:
92l should be a cat three at landfall...

I highly doubt that I don't think this would even make it to weak to moderate TS if it does develop at all
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2137. L1990
that last post was a joke... lets see how many people bash me for saying that lol
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See how convection holds up during the day for disturbance at 12 north 45 west.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
Quoting 2131. nrtiwlnvragn:
Rutt Ro


Those who drink 4 cups of coffee a day have higher death risk



I'm a gonner


I should be dead then because I go through 10-15 cups a day
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2134. L1990
92l should be a cat three at landfall...
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2133. LargoFl
its too bad the winds blow to the east,texas needs this rain..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2132. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Rutt Ro


Those who drink 4 cups of coffee a day have higher death risk



I'm a gonner
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Quoting 2101. L1990:
im off the coast of sw louisiana at the momment and there are talks of evacuation as 92 moves over water and possibly heads this way.... i hope i still get paid if i have to go home early lol

Nowadays Oil Companies often err on the side of
caution even despite the high cost of shut downs
and evacuations. I have been working on supply
vessels in the gulf for 30 yrs and it was definitely
not this way in the not too distant past....
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2129. LargoFl
UKMET is also in the same place as GFS and Nam......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 2123. L1990:


our employer.... its just talks at this point depending on if this thing blows up this morning or not

Who is ?

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Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
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2125. IKE

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Ike pull the new orleans nws disscussion. I think you will find that intersting.till I read that i thought this thing was dead also.Paste it on the blog if you want.
It was pasted. Yeah, I see that.
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Elongated mess










36 hrs GFS
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2123. L1990
Quoting 2115. wunderkidcayman:


Really by who?


our employer.... its just talks at this point depending on if this thing blows up this morning or not
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06z GFS 141 hrs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
2120. LargoFl
unless some major change comes in the next few day..if this was coming towards me..i would be expecting a HUGE amount of rain over many days..so flooding would be an issue..winds?..my guess would be 50-60 mph wind gusts at the most..i wouldn't even put up plywood BUT..things that blow around i'd be taking in..gutters etc cleaned out..and..maybe a few extra canned goods in case power went out for a few days..you never know huh...already have all the supplies..lots of charcoal etc for the BBQ grill..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2119. GatorWX
Morning everyone. Conveyor is primed, for my neck of the woods anyway.

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i dont care about the #s its good 92 is still disorganized. less pain and punishment
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Quoting 2114. SAINTHURRIFAN:
Ike pull the new orleans nws disscussion. I think you will find that intersting.till I read that i thought this thing was dead also.Paste it on the blog if you want.

Post link
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.MARINE...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION THAT INVOLVES EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY A
WAKE DEPRESSION LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO EMANATE
FROM THE SYSTEM`S CONVECTION THAT GETS CAUGHT IN THE UPPER JET
FLOW PATTERN. THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD GENERALLY TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI OR ALABAMA COAST
SATURDAY EVENING OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVER THE MARINE
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL PRODUCE
SQUALLY CONDITIONS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND A SHORT
DURATION OF TIDAL INCREASE OF 1-2 FEET ALONG THE MS COAST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN ANY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER... WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SETTLE TO LESSER LEVELS SUNDAY
ONWARD FROM EAST TO WEST...ASSUMING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

NWS New Orleans Fcst Disc.
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Quoting 2101. L1990:
im off the coast of sw louisiana at the momment and there are talks of evacuation as 92 moves over water and possibly heads this way.... i hope i still get paid if i have to go home early lol


Really by who?
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Ike pull the new orleans nws disscussion. I think you will find that intersting.till I read that i thought this thing was dead also.Paste it on the blog if you want.
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2700
2112. LargoFl
oz GFS has it pretty much like the Nam..but things DO change folks..just stay alert...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 2102. IKE:
My guess is they decrease the odds on 92L.....



Most likely
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Quoting 2106. HurricaneAndre:
it's starting to wrap around.

Not really its still being sheared and I think that new blob has more to do with being shear enhanced
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06z run from the GFS is late...Good morning all.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
2108. LargoFl
NAM is very bullish on a new Orleans vicinity hit....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
In terms of TS Erin, I expect it to start moving W when it gets around 32W/33W and continue W bound maybe slight WSW movement based off the low level steering flow and I ain't buying the weakness further W near 40W-50W I think the ridge will still stay in place I do not expect much more strengthening maybe up to 45mph but only for short time otherwise slow weakening as it runs into higher shear and higher amounts of dry air as such may allow some WSW movement as it goes W I do stress it MAY do a slight WSW movement but I'm not confirming that it will
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Quoting 2087. LargoFl:
it's starting to wrap around.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2700
2105. LargoFl
a VERY WET next 3 days coming up................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2104. LargoFl
Quoting 2101. L1990:
im off the coast of sw louisiana at the momment and there are talks of evacuation as 92 moves over water and possibly heads this way.... i hope i still get paid if i have to go home early lol
well so far it looks like a ton of rain coming your way also next 2-3 days..the whole northern gulf..flooding rains from NO all the way down thru florida and even Georgia and the Carolina's..so far this system is one HUGE rain maker..i doubt it will..where ever it does come ashore will be a big wind maker..but you know with any land falling tropical low..there is always the chance for tornado's etc.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2103. MahFL
Oh oh.

"* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON"
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2102. IKE
My guess is they decrease the odds on 92L.....


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2101. L1990
im off the coast of sw louisiana at the momment and there are talks of evacuation as 92 moves over water and possibly heads this way.... i hope i still get paid if i have to go home early lol
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2100. Walshy
COLD.

52 with fog/mist in North Wilkesboro, NC. Upper 40s in the northern mountains.
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2099. LargoFl
Quoting 2096. MahFL:
The big question is where will it go ?
well as of this moment..models have it going to north mexico,south texas,but the models change each new run huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 2093. IKE:

Maybe I just have a dirty mind?


lol possibly
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2097. LargoFl
winds are blowing all its rains to florida........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
2096. MahFL
The big question is where will it go ?
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2095. MahFL
Definitely a circulation.




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Quoting 2092. MahFL:
New flare up on the Yucatan.






Still well E of the LLC
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2093. IKE

Quoting smitty1791:
I'm still hoping for a little piece of 92L
Maybe I just have a dirty mind?
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2092. MahFL
New flare up on the Yucatan.




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.