Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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2242. LargoFl
Quoting 2236. LAsurvivor:


Largo, you can stop at any time now. I don't think everyone wants to re-read forecast discussions from every weather office from Tallahassee westward. There still is no flood watch issued for the Western panhandle or Mobile. I was partially wrong and so were you. I admitted my error and apologized.
the more you post your crap the more I post
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
2227. CybrTeddy 11:58 AM GMT on August 16, 2013
I hope 92L doesn't become Fernand, waste of a powerful sounding name to me.




Nah, Fernand the Bull, the timid little bull that just wanted to smell the roses.
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Quoting 2234. moonlightcowboy:
LLNS at about 21.5n,91.2w? Dry as a bone.

Whole area with dry air, and the ULL above the Yucatan still usurping any available moisture and deflecting it off to the northeast. Going to be quite tough for 92L to get anything going again.




Yep
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2239. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
Quoting 2212. Grothar:



Aw, that's nice. (But if you slip me a doughnut, I;ll never tell)
You want glazed, jelly filled or chocalate coverd? Good morning.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting 2230. ncstorm:


NCEP site has issues as well..

No it does not try my link post 2224
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2195. LargoFl:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-07 9-1712 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MOSTLY OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR INLAND...AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY EAST OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF
VERY RAIN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ULTIMATELY HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THAT HAS
FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASED TIDAL RANGE AND STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

$$




Largo, you can stop at any time now. I don't think everyone wants to re-read forecast discussions from every weather office from Tallahassee westward. There still is no flood watch issued for the Western panhandle or Mobile. I was partially wrong and so were you. I admitted my error and apologized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2230. ncstorm:


NCEP site has issues as well..


not like on Allan's. His site is always down.
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LLNS at about 21.5n,91.2w? Dry as a bone.

Whole area with dry air, and the ULL above the Yucatan still usurping any available moisture and deflecting it off to the northeast. Going to be quite tough for 92L to get anything going again.


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2233. ncstorm
HWRF takes 92L into Mexico
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Quoting 2218. unknowncomic:
Its off the coast 850 vort much improved.


Yes it's off the coast I can see the circulation in rgb sat loops and still got look to work on
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Quoting 2227. CybrTeddy:
I hope 92L doesn't become Fernand, waste of a powerful sounding name to me.
Agreed.
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2230. ncstorm
Quoting 2222. StormTrackerScott:


Allan's site is a bust. It is always having problems so I cancelled my service with him. Always go to this if you have issue with Levi's site or Allan's site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-par ameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle =20130816%20 06%20UTC¶m=850_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSi ze=


NCEP site has issues as well..
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2229. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
Quoting 2219. Tropicsweatherpr:


What is near Leewards is wave about to emerge Africa.


That is the wave coming off now.
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I hope 92L doesn't become Fernand, waste of a powerful sounding name to me.
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2226. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26876
Quoting 2213. MisterPerfect:
Mr. Perfect how did you get so many comments so quick. You seemed to be a new handle a few weeks ago?
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Quoting 2209. CybrTeddy:


Did we? I can't find it on both Levi's site and PennState's site.


Try this

Link

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2223. Skyepony (Mod)
GEOS takes the wave at ~45W to TX..

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Quoting 2210. ncstorm:
6z GFS run is now running on Allan Huffman site at hour 12..its coming out now


Allan's site is a bust. It is always having problems so I cancelled my service with him. Always go to this if you have issue with Levi's site or Allan's site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-are a.php#
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Good Morning everyone, question? If Erin does go out to sea will it create a weakness for the next system to follow, or is the next system to far south to follow and continue to move westward?
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2220. ncstorm
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Satellite images this morning indicate that an area of low pressure has moved offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It remains disorganized, with the showers and thunderstorms located well to the east and northeast of the low center. Environmental conditions could become more favorable for development if the low moves toward the west or northwest during the next couple of days. But if it takes a more northward track, conditions would be less conducive.
Interests in the central and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend.
Get the latest on the tropics by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
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Quoting 2215. StormTrackerScott:


06Z 264hrs.


What is near Leewards is wave about to emerge Africa.
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Quoting 2206. wunderkidcayman:

A ton has to change
I doubt it become TS.
Its off the coast 850 vort much improved.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Good Morning From Tampa Bay,

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2216. LargoFl
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 627 AM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34
KNOTS OR GREATER WAS LOCATED FROM 21 NM SOUTH OF GULF SHORES BEACH
TO 33 NM SOUTHWEST OF PETIT BOIS PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8740 2985 8761 2973 8823 2988 8831
3012 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 217DEG 11KT 2990 8765 2972 8861

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
Quoting 2209. CybrTeddy:


Did we? I can't find it on both Levi's site and PennState's site.


06Z 264hrs.
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The models continue to trend slower with Invest 92L. The GFS suggests that the environment over the Gulf will become much more conducive to cyclogenesis at or beyond 72 hours, if for some reason the system is still not inland at that time.

And with this game of tug o' war between the Texas high and the east coast trough being reinforced by shortwaves, who knows.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
2212. Grothar
Quoting 2176. mrsalagranny:
Good Friday morning. Fresh pot of coffee and pastries for all. Will hold you over until Alli gets sideboard ready. And Gro I have fresh fruits for you my friend. It looks to be a rain filled weekend here in Gulf Shores Alabama. We have the SEC Festival this weekend. But its gonna be some nasty weather.



Aw, that's nice. (But if you slip me a doughnut, I;ll never tell)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26876
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
2210. ncstorm
6z GFS run is now running on Allan Huffman site at hour 12..its coming out now
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Quoting 2205. StormTrackerScott:


Yes we did you just didn't post it. 06Z run is very interesting!



Did we? I can't find it on both Levi's site and PennState's site.
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Quoting 2204. Tropicsweatherpr:
Surprised NHC at 8 AM didn't mentioned wave at 45W nor big wave about to emerge Africa.

Yeah the one at 45W the wave will get mentioned after it leaves the coast
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05L
TROPICAL STORM 05L 6:00UTC 16August2013
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 15:47:24 N
Longitude : 29:43:28 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1005.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 965.9 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 39.1 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.7 m/s
Direction : 184.6 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
Quoting 2196. unknowncomic:
Prediction:

92L will be Fernand today. You heard it here first.

A ton has to change
I doubt it become TS.
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Quoting 2198. CybrTeddy:
For whatever reason we didn't get a 06z run for the GFS, but the 00z is showing a far more realistic solution for late August than it was before, the wave in front emerges at around 180 hours and develops.



Yes we did you just didn't post it. 06Z run is very interesting!

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Surprised NHC at 8 AM didn't mentioned wave at 45W nor big wave about to emerge Africa.
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92L is having identity issues like Dorian.If it wants to develop it has to stop losing all of it's convection and starting from rock bottom again.
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2202. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
Quoting 2172. LargoFl:
LOL one thing is for sure..IF this happens the Nam pegged it for days in advance


Even a blind Squirrel finds a nut now and then...
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New TWO is out same 50%/60% and RECON is cancelled
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2199. ncstorm
last frame on the 00z GFS
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For whatever reason we didn't get a 06z run for the GFS, but the 00z is showing a far more realistic solution for late August than it was before, the wave in front emerges at around 180 hours and develops.

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2197. MahFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Prediction:

92L will be Fernand today. You heard it here first.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
2195. LargoFl
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-1712 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MOSTLY OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR INLAND...AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY EAST OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF
VERY RAIN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ULTIMATELY HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THAT HAS
FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASED TIDAL RANGE AND STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

$$


Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
Good morning!...

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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS USED FOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRES WITH 10-M WINDS CAPPED AT 25-30 KT. WILL
BUILD SEAS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN RELATION TO LOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 25N90W TO INLAND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRES ON THE WAVE NEAR
21N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 91W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN TO NEAR 22N92W
BY LATE TONIGHT...TO NEAR 23N93W BY EARLY SAT...TO NEAR 24N93W
BY LATE SAT...AND NW ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH MON. THE LOW MAY
MOVE INLAND FAR NE TEXAS OR SW LOUISIANA LATE MON INTO
TUE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH LOW CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...AND ULTIMATE IMPACTS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL WINDS HAVE CAPPED
AT 25-30 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 11 FT-12 FT. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW/TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO CURRENT GRID FORECAST OF WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR NW GULF
FOR SAT THROUGH TUE.

In short...A real mess...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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