Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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2292. ncstorm
Quoting 2283. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe he gave you a special discount because you live in NC.


LOL..maybe..
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Looks like development of 92L, if any, may in fact be as the GFS from several days ago depicted ... north/nw of the Yucutan

585.0 4634 3.0 -14.8 26 2.08 0 8 321.8 329.0 322.2
562.0 4956 1.4 -18.2 22 1.63 0 8 323.7 329.5 324.1
555.0 5057 1.0 -19.2 20 1.51 35 9 324.3 329.7 324.6
549.0 5145 0.6 -20.2 19 1.41 0 7 324.9 329.9 325.1
534.0 5368 -0.5 -22.5 17 1.18 345 8 326.2 330.5 326.4
529.0 5442 -1.0 -23.2 17 1.12 340 8 326.5 330.6 326.7
516.0 5640 -2.2 -25.2 15 0.96 5 5 327.4 330.9 327.6
510.0 5733 -2.7 -26.1 15 0.89 305 4 327.8 331.1 328.0
500.0 5890 -3.7 -27.7 14 0.79 335 4 328.5 331.4 328.6
480.0 6211 -5.7 -24.7 21 1.08 345 5 329.9 333.9 330.1
479.0 6228 -5.8 -23.8 23 1.17 345 5 329.9 334.2 330.1
475.0 6293 -6.3 -20.3 32 1.61 337 6 330.1 335.9 330.4
470.0 6376 -6.1 -27.1 17 0.89
326 6 331.3 334.7 331.5
467.0 6426 -6.4 -26.7 18 0.92 320 7 331.6 335.1 331.8
447.0 6768 -8.3 -24.3 26 1.20 320 8 333.4 337.9 333.6
436.0 6960 -9.8 -22.2 36 1.48 320 9 333.8 339.3 334.1
426.0 714
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m

BTW keep an eye on the sneaky little devil underneath the dry air at 12 n 45 west. We are pic.twitter.com/OQOGXtyb6R
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Quoting 2254. StormTrackerScott:
This wave in the Central Atlantic looks interesting.



Yeah I think that is the storm the CMC is picking up.
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Quoting 2271. weathermanwannabe:
2262. moonlightcowboy 8:14 AM EDT on August 16, 2013

Good Morning. I do not suppose you are the same person (from California) but there is a "MLC" who is a regular poster on one of the Fender Guitar forums where I am a member. I spend lots of money every year on guitar "gadgets" such as boutique distortion and overdrive pedals.......Does not leave me with much room for additional weather gizmos; I rely on this Blog and the free collateral sites we all look at on here to feed my "other" weather addiction.............. :)


No, sorry, WW. Not me. I can't play a note or carry a tune in a bucket either. I do love music though, and admire the folks who possess such talent.
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The meaning of Fernand is "bold voyager; adventurer."
Read more at http://www.thinkbabynames.com/meaning/1/Fernand#jo ax8As47xqmXx4u.99
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around my office we all made our predictions at the beginning of the season...mine was for Nestor late September...so we will see
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Quoting 2268. ncstorm:


Scott, Allan's site is not 90.00 a month..I only pay 10.00..LOL


Maybe he gave you a special discount because you live in NC. A residency rate maybe?
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
Erin looks to be dying another name gone to waste :/
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2281. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984
Quoting 2268. ncstorm:


Scott, Allan's site is not 90.00 a month..I only pay 10.00..LOL


NC, ssshhh! I'll make YOU a special deal on the gizmos (only $5 per month) if you'll keep that quiet. ;) A real bargain, I tell ya's.

It's ergonomic, energy-efficient, does not generate CO2 so it's environmentally friendly in this new day of 2.0 ATMOS too. You game? 13 takers already! Going fast. Get yours now, today!

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Quoting 2227. CybrTeddy:
I hope 92L doesn't become Fernand, waste of a powerful sounding name to me.
Meh ,I don`t find it that powerful in exchange Gabrielle she sounds like a beast.
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Quoting 2243. Grothar:


One of each, please. My doctors put out a restraing order on me that I can't go to within 50 yards of a bakery.



Gro! You can't eat those! They will ruin your smokin' bod! :D
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2277. IKE

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Quoting 2268. ncstorm:


Scott, Allan's site is not 90.00 a month..I only pay 10.00..LOL


It's $90.00 to access all the models. Oh wait I'm sorry $89.99 per year. You get a $10 discount for signing up early.

Level 2 subscription: $9.95/month ($99.95 annual)

Level 1 products GFS, 4km NAM, ECMWF, Euro Ens, GFS Ens, GGEM Ens, NAEFS, International Models (GFS), Tropical Models (ATCF & GFDL), & CFSv2(coming soon) Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
12z Best Track for 92L.

AL, 92, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 214N, 913W, 25, 1009, LO
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2273. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984
2262. moonlightcowboy 8:14 AM EDT on August 16, 2013

Good Morning. I do not suppose you are the same person (from California) but there is a "MLC" who is a regular poster on one of the Fender Guitar forums where I am a member. I spend lots of money every year on guitar "gadgets" such as boutique distortion and overdrive pedals.......Does not leave me with much room for additional weather gizmos; I rely on this Blog and the free collateral sites we all look at on here to feed my "other" weather addiction.............. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2266. rmbjoe1954:


There seems to be dry air to its north. But it seems all clear to its west. Interesting the models aren't juicing it up based on its appearance.


It's still attached to the ITCZ but looks good on the visible.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
Quoting 2254. StormTrackerScott:
This wave in the Central Atlantic looks interesting.


Yes it does

Quoting 2263. Relix:
Pouch 20 at 45W keeping it together. Expect a 10% for it at 2. THis could be a late bloomer :)

Yeah maybe

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2268. ncstorm
Quoting 2262. moonlightcowboy:


$90 a month? Wow. Hey, I've got some really cool new weather gizmos recently imported from Shanghai. Sell 'em to you at 1/2 price, but there's a recurring support fee of only $25 per month. I've a 100 of these things, they can predict hurricanes, tornadoes, rain and more. Much more effective than you're obviously getting with Alan's site, and much cheaper. There's a PayPal account set up, just PM me and I'll get you going! ;P Anyone else? Grothar, surely you're game! ;)


Scott, Allan's site is not 90.00 a month..I only pay 10.00..LOL
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New sat image is out for Erin and she is completely naked LLC near 16.7N 31.5W sofar it's SE of forecast plot
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Quoting 2254. StormTrackerScott:
This wave in the Central Atlantic looks interesting.



There seems to be dry air to its north. But it seems all clear to its west. Interesting the models aren't juicing it up based on its appearance.
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Looks like several named systems possible over the next couple of weeks. This system here looks like a fish storm.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
2264. LargoFl
6z Nam...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984
2263. Relix
Pouch 20 at 45W keeping it together. Expect a 10% for it at 2. THis could be a late bloomer :)
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Quoting 2248. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah very rarely do they have issues. With Alan it's usually the Euro that's always down. I got so annoyed and cancelled my service. I'm not paying $90 a month for a site that only works half the time.


$90 a month? Wow. Hey, I've got some really cool new weather gizmos recently imported from Shanghai. Sell 'em to you at 1/2 price, but there's a recurring support fee of only $25 per month. I've a 100 of these things, they can predict hurricanes, tornadoes, rain and more. Much more effective than you're obviously getting with Alan's site, and much cheaper. There's a PayPal account set up, just PM me and I'll get you going! ;P Anyone else? Grothar, surely you're game! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2261. ncstorm
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2260. IKE
17m
The God of Dry air awaits Erin, but look out, sees classic US threat pattern evolving in coming weeks. More than ave
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Here is a nice shot of the wave about to emerge off of the African coast. It is rather large but as usual, we have to wait to see how well it transitions once it gets over the water and just past the Cape Verde Islands:

Link
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Quoting 2254. StormTrackerScott:
This wave in the Central Atlantic looks interesting.

Wasn't Gustav a sleeper wave as well?.He didn't look to great out in the central atlantic if memory serves me correctly.
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Quoting 2252. ncstorm:


Its always slow in loading..Eveyone mostly gets the maps from Levi site as its faster than the NCEP..thats a fact..so yes it has issues..


Atleast it loads though. On Alan they just don't show up at all.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
2256. IKE
10m
No run at the coast, No hits on the US, in 5 days, no Erin.. ( a little baseball/weather humor there.. very little)
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2255. RTLSNK
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This wave in the Central Atlantic looks interesting.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
2253. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984
2252. ncstorm
Quoting 2237. wunderkidcayman:

No it does not try my link post 2224


Its always slow in loading..Eveyone mostly gets the maps from Levi site as its faster than the NCEP..thats a fact..so yes it has issues..
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2251. Grothar
Quoting 2230. ncstorm:


NCEP site has issues as well..


I thought it was me at first. Nothing is ever available.
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Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
Quoting 2236. LAsurvivor:


Largo, you can stop at any time now. I don't think everyone wants to re-read forecast discussions from every weather office from Tallahassee westward. There still is no flood watch issued for the Western panhandle or Mobile. I was partially wrong and so were you. I admitted my error and apologized.
It kinda slows down my blog experience because it's so long and takes up what would be three through 4 post long..
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Quoting 2237. wunderkidcayman:

No it does not try my link post 2224


Yeah very rarely do they have issues. With Alan it's usually the Euro that's always down. I got so annoyed and cancelled my service. I'm not paying $90 a year for a site that only works half the time.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3858
Good Morning. 92L looking to remain a rain event for someone in the Gulf and Erin currently forecast to dissipate in the Central Atlantic.

Have patience; still 2-5 weeks of "peak" time left; with 80% of all tropical Atlantic storms being born during this upcoming peak period we will have plenty of storms to track in the coming weeks.

Interesting to note that the A-B high has retrograded to the North a little bit over the past week (hence Erin's track) but it is too early to know at this point what the ridging will look like (recede or build back in) for each individual Cape Verde wave that emerges over the next few weeks. Storms forming well before 50W (such as Erin) will have a better shot at fish status and those that struggle across the Atlantic, whether because of sheer or lack of sufficient moisture/dry air issues, but are able to reach TD/Storm status west of 50W have a better chance of getting into the Antilles and beyond.

Erin has been moving at 16 mph which is much slower than the Ernestos of the world (booking at 20 plus mph) so we may not have the "faster" trade wind issue this season that prevented vertical stacking of so many tropical systems last year.
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2246. SLU
Quoting 2227. CybrTeddy:
I hope 92L doesn't become Fernand, waste of a powerful sounding name to me.


Yup. It's a great name for a major hurricane like Floyd.
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2245. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984
Also looks like 92L LLC has now stalled and stopped moving WNW looks to have jogged SE-E on last 2-3 frames
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2243. Grothar
Quoting 2238. mrsalagranny:
You want glazed, jelly filled or chocalate coverd? Good morning.


One of each, please. My doctors put out a restraing order on me that I can't go to within 50 yards of a bakery.

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2242. LargoFl
Quoting 2236. LAsurvivor:


Largo, you can stop at any time now. I don't think everyone wants to re-read forecast discussions from every weather office from Tallahassee westward. There still is no flood watch issued for the Western panhandle or Mobile. I was partially wrong and so were you. I admitted my error and apologized.
the more you post your crap the more I post
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40984

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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