Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 76. Grothar:


Don't forget, Pert Kelton was his first wife.
From IMDB:

Pert Kelton "Was also the only actress in the history of "The Honeymooners" to play both Alice Kramden on Cavalcade of Stars (1949) and her mother in a 1967 musical episode originally aired on The Jackie Gleason Show (1966)."

Also "Blacklisted for many years by McCarthyism."

Thanks, Gro. I learned something.
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Erin is definately headed down the path of Dorian, so i agree with some comments stating Dorian pt2! The only difference is that the Dry Sahara dust is beginning to dissapate itself so this one may have to be watched more closely as it approaches the CONUS.


well..the question is...will it make it anywhere close?....conditions and steering would seems to state it's going to dissipate or be a fishstorm anyways
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NOUS42 KNHC 151507
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 15 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/1200-1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 16/1530Z C. 16/0930Z
D. 21.0N 91.5W D. 22.5N 92.5W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2200Z E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
AT 16/0100Z.
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Quoting 67. nocanesplease:
Is there any graphics to analyze the feature around 40W. Is it only the ITZC? or is something to be watch?


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It's possibly the wave axis is farther east on the yucatan peninsula than what the pros are showing with a possible low level feature west of Cancun.
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3692 comments on last blog! Can't imagine how many we will get to today now that Erin has formed.
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Sorry if this is a repeat...slow puter...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 15 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/1200-1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 16/1530Z C. 16/0930Z
D. 21.0N 91.5W D. 22.5N 92.5W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2200Z E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
AT 16/0100Z.
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Quoting 67. nocanesplease:
Is there any graphics to analyze the feature around 40W. Is it only the ITZC? or is something to be watch?


It's in between satellite right now.

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Good morning, wunderbloggers!

Erin will be a very interesting one, for sure. If it can survive a more stable airmass and continue on a more westward path, we could end up seeing an intensifying tropical storms north of the islands.

Erin is also clearing the way for another wave behind which will emerge slightly to the south of Erin. If 92L doesn't develop into a named storm, the wave behind it should.
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Decent amount of low-level convergence should help sustain the thunderstorms 92L is firing.

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Thanks Dr. Masters. To sum it all up. 92L will be a big rain event for the GUlf Coast Hopefully Texas, since they actually need the rain, and Ering will have the fate of other storms this season... being destroyed by the trade winds. Well at least we had something to track.
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Quoting 74. TampaSpin:


Anything Spinning you see is enhanced by the ITCZ....a system would have to pull out of there and maintain its own spin without influence from the ITCZ. Something to watch as it approaches the Caribbean tho.
Thanks for responding!!!
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Quoting 59. SouthernIllinois:

Sure! On it's way!!


If only it were that easy LOL! I think the warm muggy air bing pushed up our way from the Gulf by 92L is going to win out but it sure would be nice if it all went West like some of the models are suggesting. We have our big boating poker run in town this weekend and it would suck if it rained. A lot of big power boats are in town from all over the Southeast.

Link
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Quoting 61. FLwolverine:
From the last blog:

Actually it was Audrey Meadows as Alice Kramden - usually when Ralph had done something irrevocably dumb:

Pins and needles, needles and pins,
A happy woman is a woman who grins!


Don't forget, Pert Kelton was his first wife.
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Quoting 51. SouthernIllinois:

So we disagree you are saying...? It should be. This cold snap is indeed BIG NEWS! Of course it is equal.

Natalie


its not that bad and temps rebound here back to normal and above starting this weekend and into next week and likely till the first day of fall mid-late september

and in fact we may even see a mild winter because of cool spell we have been experiencing there have been other summers that I remember same type of weather and come late fall early winter still be basking under mild conditions


winter is still a long way to go
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Quoting 67. nocanesplease:
Is there any graphics to analyze the feature around 40W. Is it only the ITZC? or is something to be watch?


Anything Spinning you see is enhanced by the ITCZ....a system would have to pull out of there and maintain its own spin without influence from the ITCZ. Something to watch as it approaches the Caribbean tho.
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Erin is definately headed down the path of Dorian, so i agree with some comments stating Dorian pt2! The only difference is that the Dry Sahara dust is beginning to dissapate itself so this one may have to be watched more closely as it approaches the CONUS.
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Quoting 47. SouthernIllinois:

Not that cold snap. This one!!
It's the same phenomenon. What I meant was he explained how ice and jet stream are screwing up weather. I've got the same cold snap as you here in Michigan - sometimes it's to believe that we had extremely hot weather at the beginning of July.
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Quoting 42. HurricaneCamille:
I see it coming yesterday and everyone bash and laugh at me

92l just didn't do anything even when it had great conditions to work with


You said it was done for....

It is not.

Still has the gulf to go through.

And weren't you being sarcastic late last night about the amount of convection it was firing, and how you insisted DMAX has peaked?

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Quoting 54. canehater1:
Nice blog update, Doc ! and so timely... I am Not giving up on 92-L until the experts do.



Remember the Doriamo!





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For those wondering whether the current cool snap in the upper Midwest/Northeast is some kind of "harbinger" or "sign", the CPC says, "probably not" (and, "Enjoy it while it lasts"):

cpc

cpc
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Weather forecasters were much better in Norway. When they said possible snow in the mountains this winter, they were never wrong.
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Is there any graphics to analyze the feature around 40W. Is it only the ITZC? or is something to be watch?
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tropical storm dorian and tropical storm erin in the same place!
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Quoting 52. LargoFl:
12z Nam at 84 hours.....precip


Back to South Texas it appears lol. That model is about useless in the tropics
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
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From the last blog:
Quoting 3775. icmoore:


Just say what Jackie Gleason use to say :)) "Pins and needles, needles and pins, it's a happy man that grins," LOL. Good morning, Gro :) and everybody.

Actually it was Audrey Meadows as Alice Kramden - usually when Ralph had done something irrevocably dumb:

Pins and needles, needles and pins,
A happy woman is a woman who grins!
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Quoting 2. SouthernIllinois:
Doc! Thanks! Hey how that weather in Ann Arbor treating you?? Been chilly here!! Nights are like the low 50's Doc Master's. That window opening weather and it's the middle of August in Southern Illinois. What is UP WITH THAT JEFF!!!!????

What does this mean for Autumn. For winter? Is this a harbinger?? OMG it is cold down here for this time of year. GOODNESS!!!!

Natalie :)


Well, what you are observing is simply due to a persistent, strong trough in the eastern U.S.

However, it is not necessarily a sign that there will be an unusually cold fall or winter. If ridging begins to dominate in the east say come September and October, you'll be enjoying above normal temps in the Fall. Its certainly feasible, because at some point, a trough pattern will take place somewhere else in the East which could mean ridging in the East. To what degree and how long, well who knows.

Unusual? Indeed, a harbinger? Possibly, but definitely not necessarily.
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Quoting 2. SouthernIllinois:
Doc! Thanks! Hey how that weather in Ann Arbor treating you?? Been chilly here!! Nights are like the low 50's Doc Master's. That window opening weather and it's the middle of August in Southern Illinois. What is UP WITH THAT JEFF!!!!????

What does this mean for Autumn. For winter? Is this a harbinger?? OMG it is cold down here for this time of year. GOODNESS!!!!

Natalie :)


Could you send some of the cool dry air to NW Florida please, we are way over due after the humid soggy summer we've had!
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Anyone got a link to the latest EURO that Doc is referring to?
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It never ceases to confound me that those who never contribute anything resourceful or informative to the blog


LMAO....prosit cowboy
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dissipation of erin means one thing to this character. that its remains might eventually be near the conus..dorian.part2
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Nice blog update, Doc ! and so timely... I am Not giving up on 92-L until the experts do.

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Quoting 12. StormWx:
Looks like Erin will be a non issue and a threat to only shipping lanes. But the ones after, those we need to watch.
we are starting watching tropical storm erin!!
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12z Nam at 84 hours.....precip
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Erin RBtop

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Quoting 18. SouthernIllinois:

WHAT!!!??? That's not fair!!!! Shouldn't the cold be mentioned as much as the heat. Aren't we an equal weather opportunity blog???
I don't know. Should it? Let's compare:

--An unprecedented, profound, and long-lasting heat wave recently affected eastern Asia, perhaps killing thousands (if not tens of thousands), while Japan broke its national all-time high-temperature record (after several nations in Europe did so last week).

--A total of 7 daily low temperature records were set in the upper Midwest yesterday, and not a single all-time monthly low.

Some may see those as "equal" or somehow magically offsetting. Me? Not so much...

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Quoting 38. RGVtropicalWx13:

Says 57 hrs. Not complete yet. Goes out to 84 hrs.
yes I only did 57 hours..
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Anyone know why the FSU cyclogenesis site is not updating. The chain saws going off nearby are getting me nervous.
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Quoting 2. SouthernIllinois:
Doc! Thanks! Hey how that weather in Ann Arbor treating you?? Been chilly here!! Nights are like the low 50's Doc Master's. That window opening weather and it's the middle of August in Southern Illinois. What is UP WITH THAT JEFF!!!!????

What does this mean for Autumn. For winter? Is this a harbinger?? OMG it is cold down here for this time of year. GOODNESS!!!!

Natalie :)
Arctic ice and jet stream. Dr M wrote about it here. Link

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Thanks Dr. Masters, so could this be the reason the official track is still to the north, while some others are west?


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I see it coming yesterday and everyone bash and laugh at me

92l just didn't do anything even when it had great conditions to work with
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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