Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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2341. Grothar
Quoting 2333. allancalderini:
Stable air is killing her not dry air.


Actually both at the moment.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
So when does hurricane season start?
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2339. vis0
CREDIT: NOAA via Cuban INSMET (5 frames repeated 3x)



Southern U.S. coastline in neon Last 2 frames
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92l transforming into a hybrid low.
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What so funny this morning...
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NEXT!
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Quoting 2329. VR46L:


and into drier air ....



Stable air is killing her not dry air.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4335
Upgrade to 91C.

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_cp912013_cp012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308160244
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Link

Sun's out. First really good look at the swirl.
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Quoting 2321. Envoirment:
Erin was in a high mid-shear environment.



She should look better once she moves into lower shear.
Stable air will kill her before she finds conductive conditions.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4335
2329. VR46L
Quoting 2321. Envoirment:
Erin was in a high mid-shear environment.



She should look better once she moves into lower shear.


and into drier air ....:)



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Quoting 2324. SLU:


.. and she has been in the past.


One of the largest Cape Verde hurricanes ever seen.

Yes I remember that,she was quite fat.I just don`t feel Fernand as a poweful name in spanish is Fernando which is usually given to sweet guys.Ferdinand sounds more threatening to be Honest.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4335
Quoting 2314. Grothar:


I'll have you know I am the same weight since I was 21. Ok, so it has redistributed itself a little.


Sooo like 400 years ago?... Sorry couldn't resist ;)
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2325. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38516
2324. SLU
Quoting 2279. allancalderini:
Meh ,I don`t find it that powerful in exchange Gabrielle she sounds like a beast.


.. and she has been in the past.


One of the largest Cape Verde hurricanes ever seen.

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2323. VR46L
Quoting 2310. moonlightcowboy:



It's a sight prettier'n 92L! ;)


92L , I don't think it ever was gonna be anything but a rain maker ... its a mess now ... it need more than CPR..

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Quoting 2304. VR46L:
Gotta say Erin looks terrible today

For enlarged image click on image
Yikes.Skeletor is that you!?!
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Erin was in a high mid-shear environment.



She should look better once she moves into lower shear.
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Well off for now to get errands ran before the rain gets here. One thing before I go, has anyone noticed how the sky looks today in Alabama . It looks rather eerie. Some thick fog in some places. Hummmmm. Be blessed everyone.
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2319. Doss2k
Good morning all!

Long time lurker, decided it was finally time to start posting.

Beautiful morning here in Raleigh, NC. The past two days have been very much to my liking. Weather like this usually doesnt come around till after football season has begun so this early shot is getting me ready.

Looks like things are starting to get going again in the tropics. Granted, Erin is going fishing and 92L continues to toy with us, but activity is picking up. Still hopeful 92L can get its act together and head to Texas as a weak system and bring them some much needed rain.

Very interested to see how the impressive wave moving off Africa holds up once it hits the open waters. That one should give us something to talk about soon as well.
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Still no convection in the swirl. I wonder when it will even try something.
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Quoting 2294. ncstorm:


its looking good on satellite..


Good morning

He's late to the party on that. I have been monitoring that feature for over two days now
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2315. LargoFl
Flash Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013


FLZ020>025-030>033-035-036-GAZ132>136-149>154-162 >166-162000-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FF.A.0001.130816T1600Z-130817T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNI ON-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-
ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-
CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...LIVE OAK...LAKE CITY...
MACCLENNY...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...LAKE BUTLER...
STARKE...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...ST AUGUSTINE...TRENTON...
GAINESVILLE...DOUGLAS...HAZLEHURST...ALMA...BAXLE Y...JESUP...
PEARSON...WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR...NAHUNTA...BRUNS WICK...
STATENVILLE...HOMERVILLE...FOLKSTON...WOODBINE... ST MARYS
347 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38516
2314. Grothar
Quoting 2278. Dragod66:


Gro! You can't eat those! They will ruin your smokin' bod! :D


I'll have you know I am the same weight since I was 21. Ok, so it has redistributed itself a little.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
2313. VR46L
Quoting 2307. SouthernIllinois:

You should have seen here last night how bad she looked. Looks like me on a Sunday morning.


LOL !!!

Or like me today (little under the weather today)

Yeah I looked at the funktop over the last few hours of imagery she is not looking scary at all !
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Quoting 2305. tkeith:

you dont any any "gadgets" when you have a "66 princeton reverb "Blackface" :)

The temps here are nice today :)


You Da Man; I am getting my 78 Fender Champ reworked in two weeks by the same folks who currently supply Pat Travers with his amps (Valve Train). Trying to get that "Blackface" sound out of a "Silverface".....lol.

Now back to the weather..............
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2311. LargoFl
not too bad so far this morning.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38516
Quoting 2304. VR46L:
Gotta say Erin looks terrible today

For enlarged image click on image



It's a sight prettier'n 92L! ;)
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2309. Grothar
Quoting 2293. mrsalagranny:
You got it. Sending one dozen of each. Lol. To stay on topic. Looks like a lot of rain from 92l headinng to the Gulf Coast. Everyone be safe from possible flooding events.


It could be a lot of rain/
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Erin she is naked
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2305. tkeith
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
2262. moonlightcowboy 8:14 AM EDT on August 16, 2013

Good Morning. I do not suppose you are the same person (from California) but there is a "MLC" who is a regular poster on one of the Fender Guitar forums where I am a member. I spend lots of money every year on guitar "gadgets" such as boutique distortion and overdrive pedals.......Does not leave me with much room for additional weather gizmos; I rely on this Blog and the free collateral sites we all look at on here to feed my "other" weather addiction.............. :)

you dont any any "gadgets" when you have a "66 princeton reverb "Blackface" :)

The temps here are nice today :)
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2304. VR46L
Gotta say Erin looks terrible today

For enlarged image click on image
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2303. Grothar
Quoting 2298. moonlightcowboy:
Dangit! :( Grothar already wants a refund. ;P




No more refunds.


Who said reliable records only go back 30 years? :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting 2262. moonlightcowboy:


$90 a month? Wow. Hey, I've got some really cool new weather gizmos recently imported from Shanghai. Sell 'em to you at 1/2 price, but there's a recurring support fee of only $25 per month. I've a 100 of these things, they can predict hurricanes, tornadoes, rain and more. Much more effective than you're obviously getting with Alan's site, and much cheaper. There's a PayPal account set up, just PM me and I'll get you going! ;P Anyone else? Grothar, surely you're game! ;)


Actually it's $90 a year. I was thinking a month because I just paid it not that long ago. Sorry. ncstorm is correct $10 a month.
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waste of a name not our choice its natures
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2299. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Tenaitous fog again this morning..
Strategic manouvers and correct posture and I survived the retrieval of the newspaper.. :)

Current Eyes in the Sky




NASA Earth Science Division Current Operating Missions

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Dangit! :( Grothar already wants a refund. ;P




No more refunds.
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Saidly
the pouches won't be tracked today

No pouches will be tracked on Friday 16 August. The federal budget sequestration is being applied at the Naval Postgraduate School as furloughs every Friday. Employees are forbidden to work, under threat of termination. Good news: 16 August is the last Furlough Friday of FY2013.
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Quoting 2287. moonlightcowboy:


No, sorry, WW. Not me. I can't play a note or carry a tune in a bucket either. I do love music though, and admire the folks who possess such talent.


No problem; that saves you from the expensive headache of GAS that so many musicians suffer from (Gear Acquisition Syndrome).........
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2294. ncstorm
Quoting 2290. Tropicsweatherpr:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m

BTW keep an eye on the sneaky little devil underneath the dry air at 12 n 45 west. We are pic.twitter.com/OQOGXtyb6R


its looking good on satellite..
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Quoting 2243. Grothar:


One of each, please. My doctors put out a restraing order on me that I can't go to within 50 yards of a bakery.

You got it. Sending one dozen of each. Lol. To stay on topic. Looks like a lot of rain from 92l headinng to the Gulf Coast. Everyone be safe from possible flooding events.
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2292. ncstorm
Quoting 2283. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe he gave you a special discount because you live in NC.


LOL..maybe..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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