Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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You know how Dr. Masters says that 92L lost most of its convection overnight? Could that have been from D-MIN?
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Multiple competing low vorts in the GOM?

Hmmm; Sounds like something I posted about two or so days back. :)

Maybe I'm suffering from Grothar-Memory-Displacement Syndrome...

EDIT: Nope, found it.
Quoting 210. seminolesfan 6:59 PM EDT on August 13, 2013:


Competing lows will probably be a continuing theme.
From the much loved and posted 18zGFS@84hrs:


Lots of lows in the GOM area, right?

With the dry air streaming in on the western flank and the flow around the higher pressure out to the east speaks of a broader area of circulation with a dominant(dominant speaking to the nature of several competing low vorts)
low being shunted N...
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Quoting 128. Grothar:


Wasn't that from the movie, "No Way Out"


I got that way once at a party and my ex-wife spotted me...thankfully found a way out :)
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Quoting 124. ricderr:
I literally LOL'ed!

that's cus you're more refined than most of us who LMAO'd....good to see you post in here...but a word of wisdom...lock up your liquor


I LOL'ed again, and very nearly LMAO!

On topic comment: Come on 92L!!!! Momma needs rain!
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Quoting 122. weatherman994:
Is Erin going to be a fish storm?


At this point the forecast is for it to remain in a wnw motion and eventually turning west as it slowly weakens. So no would be the short answer. Now if it gains enough strength, then early next week it may have to be watched for recurvature near the CONUS.
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Quoting 132. bieaxbillybob:
YEPPERS YEPPERS O.T.S.

Hey StormWx. How's it shaking?
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Move to Florida and you can visit pools all year long if they're heated!


actually...our kids have wet suits...they swim all year long without the heater
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yes Kman I made mention of this area in my last post. the latest OSCAT is showing a low pressure area 10N 42W
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Quoting 125. 69Viking:


Move to Florida and you can visit pools all year long if they're heated!

I should. I really should.
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Quoting 124. ricderr:
I literally LOL'ed!

that's cus you're more refined than most of us who LMAO'd....good to see you post in here...but a word of wisdom...lock up your liquor

Not mine. Hands off!!!
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Quoting 113. Nimitz:


May I point out that on the main page of the site, the right hand side, is a daily list of approx. 6 or 7 notable meteorlogical events of the day. I will note that virtually every day there are record low tempertures posted.

Quod Erot Demonstradorum


To go a bit more in depth, I would check out one of our featured bloggers here, Christopher C. Burt Link While those lows are indeed records, globally we have experienced all time record high temperatures, included some big notables right here in the U.S.. For reference in July, "No cold records of note were set anywhere in the U.S although the 62°F (16.7°C) maximum temperature on July 28th at Concordia, Kansas was the coolest monthly maximum ever recorded at that site (POR goes back to 1885). Many other sites in the Midwest also recorded record daily low monthly maximums that day (and the before and after), but no significant (sites with long POR’s) reported monthly record lows." On the other hand, an examination will show you many all-time monthly highs fell across the U.S. with New Haven, CT breaking their all time record monthly high from 1780. Either way, Christoper Burt has a great examination of extreme weather and as a historian, will not give preference to one over the other, but will give a much needed historical and current context to the situation.

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Is Erin going to be a fish storm?


wman...if i was a betting man and i am...that's how i would bet it...but if i lived along the coast...i'd still watch it
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Quoting 113. Nimitz:


May I point out that on the main page of the site, the right hand side, is a daily list of approx. 6 or 7 notable meteorlogical events of the day. I will note that virtually every day there are record low tempertures posted.

Quod Erot Demonstradorum


Wasn't that from the movie, "No Way Out"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Never downcast an invest in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Anyways, ooks as though we may have to wait a while longer for the tropics to really heat up. We may have to wait for the MJO pulse when the tropics will be dominated by large scale lift.

Until then, I don't think we should write off Erin though I've seen tropical cyclones develop quite substantially over marginally warm water temps. This because once has to consider the instability profile when determining a tropical cyclones efficiency at utilizing energy from the ocean. S
hear is low so I think Erin has a decent shot at some steady development. Long term forecasts don't looks so promising though, and there is a shot at curving out to see as well. There is much time to watch though so I wouldn't write Erin off as another Dorian yet.
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Quoting 110. SouthernIllinois:

I see. I SO hope that is true cuz warmer weather means the pool season extends into maybe OCTOBER! YAY!!!! Ok I was not alive when Mickey Gilley was at the peak of his game but saw on a science channel about how they were predicting like the next ice age after the brutal cold in the 70's and early 80's. Let me put it to you this way. If I heard that news I would be DEVASTATED!! Better warmer than colder. I just HOPE their predictions come true this time around and IT DOES get hotter!!! :)


Move to Florida and you can visit pools all year long if they're heated!
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I literally LOL'ed!

that's cus you're more refined than most of us who LMAO'd....good to see you post in here...but a word of wisdom...lock up your liquor
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Come on 92L be TS Fernand.
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Is Erin going to be a fish storm?
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Strong convection over 92L and tightning up as we type. TD soon? Hmmm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
This could change things a little. You can see it a little more clearly here, I think.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Well as I mentioned yesterday, there existed a massive range in potential for 92L. Unfortunately for us weather geeks, it looks as if 92L is has passed its best time frame for development. If its going to fall apart, at least the upper trough and channel between the front and high pressure in the Atlantic is going to pull a lot of moisture and energy from the disturbance across Florida to give us some energy.

People keep saying Florida "doesn't need any more rain". I beg to differ, that's old news, we are entering the wettest time of year for us on average where mean precip is 8 to 10 inches and so far we are below average for the first 2 weeks of August across much of the peninsula, so personally I'm glad to see some action come back.

Besides, since when was dry and fair weather ever exciting? We'll be getting plenty of frontal passages followed by cooler dry weather in a few months so enjoy the daily tropical connection while it lasts. Its good for wildlife and ecology.


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Quoting 104. mcdsara1:


But winter is coming. Sorry I had to!


Oh no a GOT reference!
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Quoting 99. MisterPerfect:


no I see it too Ric. I see it 24 hrs a day.


I literally LOL'ed!
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Ascat got a good look at the feature located near 42W that I mentioned earlier today. There is a very broad low there with lots of West winds. It would not take much for this to organise if it tightened up some and that is a possibility with the thunderstorms beginning to expand.

This one will be interesting to watch due to its low latitude and close proximity to the Eastern Caribbean.


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Quoting 102. wxchaser97:

Looking at Wundermap, looks like there is a weak low of sorts where the highest convergence is.


Somewhat apparent too on Rainbow, around 19.5N 86W





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Quoting 75. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its not that bad and temps rebound here back to normal and above starting this weekend and into next week and likely till the first day of fall mid-late september

and in fact we may even see a mild winter because of cool spell we have been experiencing there have been other summers that I remember same type of weather and come late fall early winter still be basking under mild conditions


winter is still a long way to go


May I point out that on the main page of the site, the right hand side, is a daily list of approx. 6 or 7 notable meteorlogical events of the day. I will note that virtually every day there are record low tempertures posted.

Quod Erot Demonstradorum
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Quoting 81. SouthernIllinois:

You saw those maps in my blog?? You only seem to post those when they are predicting warmth? Is that true or me? I guess I am guilty of the same thing when I only post GFS runs that show rain over my area. I can't help it because I want the rain SO BAD when it's dry around here. So how could you blame me!!! :)



and this is August?? Even some parts of Texas has 70's
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16199
Multiple competing low vorts in the GOM?

Hmmm; Sounds like something I posted about two or so days back. :)

Maybe I'm suffering from Grothar-Memory-Displacement Syndrome...

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Quoting 101. Jedkins01:


He was simply showing that global temp trends suggest a greater chance of returning to at or above normal at some point. Cooler than normal temps overall are not the global mean, instead they are simply a product of synoptic weather patterns. However, heat continues to be the global mean.

Now, that doesn't mean you won't experience major cold snaps this winter, but the chance of experiencing more mild than normal temps vs colder than normal temps over the long term is higher overall.

I see. I SO hope that is true cuz warmer weather means the pool season extends into maybe OCTOBER! YAY!!!! Ok I was not alive when Mickey Gilley was at the peak of his game but saw on a science channel about how they were predicting like the next ice age after the brutal cold in the 70's and early 80's. Let me put it to you this way. If I heard that news I would be DEVASTATED!! Better warmer than colder. I just HOPE their predictions come true this time around and IT DOES get hotter!!! :)
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
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92L is a trough of low pressure from near Cancun down to Belieze. It's being enhanced by the upper low to it's north (same as yesterday). The system has a 20% chance of becoming a TD or Storm in the BOC when some energy move over there on Friday into Saturday and a 30% when the midlevel moisture from the northern end of the trough breaks apart and merges with the surface trough west of florida and south of the panhandle later Friday into Saturday.
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Nice burst of convection over the COC of 92L. It looks like its taking advantage of the NW Caribbeans TCHP this morning. Wind shear looks to be decreasing over the center.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting 88. Grothar:




Really, a CIMSS sfc vort map should be posted with/for 10N40W shots...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 75. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its not that bad and temps rebound here back to normal and above starting this weekend and into next week and likely till the first day of fall mid-late september

and in fact we may even see a mild winter because of cool spell we have been experiencing there have been other summers that I remember same type of weather and come late fall early winter still be basking under mild conditions


winter is still a long way to go


But winter is coming. Sorry I had to!
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Quoting 92. FLwolverine:
From IMDB:

Pert Kelton "Was also the only actress in the history of "The Honeymooners" to play both Alice Kramden on Cavalcade of Stars (1949) and her mother in a 1967 musical episode originally aired on The Jackie Gleason Show (1966)."

Also "Blacklisted for many years by McCarthyism."

Thanks, Gro. I learned something.


Anytime. I remember seeing her interviewed during the McCarthy hearings along with Adolphe Menjou and Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz. She was a very nice woman.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Quoting 82. tropicfreak:
Decent amount of low-level convergence should help sustain the thunderstorms 92L is firing.


Looking at Wundermap, looks like there is a weak low of sorts where the highest convergence is.
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Quoting 81. SouthernIllinois:

You saw those maps in my blog?? You only seem to post those when they are predicting warmth? Is that true or me? I guess I am guilty of the same thing when I only post GFS runs that show rain over my area. I can't help it because I want the rain SO BAD when it's dry around here. So how could you blame me!!! :)


He was simply showing that global temp trends suggest a greater chance of returning to at or above normal at some point. Cooler than normal temps overall are not the global mean, instead they are simply a product of synoptic weather patterns. However, heat continues to be the global mean.

Now, that doesn't mean you won't experience major cold snaps this winter, but the chance of experiencing more mild than normal temps vs colder than normal temps over the long term is higher overall.
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Thank you Dr Masters.....Good Morning Class
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Quoting 95. ricderr:
re post 90......MP...am i the only one that see's the eye?


no I see it too Ric. I see it 24 hrs a day.
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33. moonlightcowboy

Well said!!!!!
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Actually, Cozumel Drak
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Quoting 87. Drakoen:
It's possibly the wave axis is farther east on the yucatan peninsula than what the pros are showing with a possible low level feature west of Cancun.


I thought it was just me. I didn't want to post this because I didn't want to be attacked. You know how gentle I am.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
re post 90......MP...am i the only one that see's the eye?
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Quoting 87. Drakoen:
It's possibly the wave axis is farther east on the yucatan peninsula than what the pros are showing with a possible low level feature west of Cancun.


Not Cancun, but Cozumel.
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Quoting 76. Grothar:


Don't forget, Pert Kelton was his first wife.
From IMDB:

Pert Kelton "Was also the only actress in the history of "The Honeymooners" to play both Alice Kramden on Cavalcade of Stars (1949) and her mother in a 1967 musical episode originally aired on The Jackie Gleason Show (1966)."

Also "Blacklisted for many years by McCarthyism."

Thanks, Gro. I learned something.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.