Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Share this Blog
73
+

The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 192 - 142

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Quoting 189. tornadodude:


An amazing beer! lol

I see we have Erin now, currently 75 degrees here with low humidity. I love it!

And was the statement you posted real or made-up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shiner is a local beer, hot Weather thoughts. We are still holding out hope for some rain. Missed last night only received a few hundredths of an inch.
Quoting 179. 62901IL:

What's Shiner?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 115. kmanislander:
Ascat got a good look at the feature located near 42W that I mentioned earlier today. There is a very broad low there with lots of West winds. It would not take much for this to organise if it tightened up some and that is a possibility with the thunderstorms beginning to expand.

This one will be interesting to watch due to its low latitude and close proximity to the Eastern Caribbean.


Monsoon trough...

plus a little help from a T-wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 179. 62901IL:

What's Shiner?


An amazing beer! lol

I see we have Erin now, currently 75 degrees here with low humidity. I love it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 185. GTstormChaserCaleb:
06z FIM-9:


It got rid of the storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.


Agree. Among the favorable factors were the highest sst's in the basin but we know is more than warm sst's to make a TC.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
06z FIM-9:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.


A large gyre without a defined LLV being fed by forced convergence is 'pristine conditions'?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 177. cyclonekid:
Looks like we may have Tropical Depression One-C very soon. It's been a while since the Central Pacific has spit one out on their own, without the aid of an already existing Eastern Pacific storm. :)


Possible Tropical Storm Pewa :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 161. Grothar:


LOL. You remind me of an Admiral I used to know.


Admiral james Tiberius Kirk?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.


Surface trough over the N GOM with higher pressure to it's south caused 92L to have a hard time getting pressure under 1010mbs. We would need a high pressure over Florida and SE U.S. giving the carribean a chance to lower the pressure on a system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 175. calkevin77:
Latest drought report for area 20NM North of Austin TX: Picked up .05" last night. My city goes to Stage 3 water restrictions starting Monday 8/19. Until further notice, all residents shall conserve water by drinking Shiner.

What's Shiner?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 167. ProphetessofDoom:
Hello to all! Quick question, and my apologies ahead of time for any ignorance the question displays. Is it possible (and if so, has it ever happened) for an existing wave with two competing coc's to actually split, with each coc forming into its own storm? And then, can those two storms head in opposite directions? Thanks in advance for any info!


i think they call that a Yin Yang situation?? I'll leave it to the pros to better answer you, but I recall watching something like that happen before
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like we may have Tropical Depression One-C very soon. It's been a while since the Central Pacific has spit one out on their own, without the aid of an already existing Eastern Pacific storm. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS trending quite a bit stronger with Erin, but further north naturally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest drought report for area 20NM North of Austin TX: Picked up .05" last night. My city goes to Stage 3 water restrictions starting Monday 8/19. Until further notice, all residents shall conserve water by drinking Shiner.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 866
Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.


Doubt we'll ever fully understand it... that's the beauty of Weather. Just when you think you got it... then the unexpected happens. Keeps it fun in my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 172. ihave27windows:


I have a 22 yr old daughter named Gabrielle, and she is mean.....really mean.

Hmmm, then maybe hurricane names mean something!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 163. Doppler22:
The wave behind Erin looks... dangerous. I hope 92L does become Fernand because then the big wave behind Erin (if named) would be Gabrielle. And Gabrielle sounds much more threatening then Fernand


I have a 22 yr old daughter named Gabrielle, and she is mean.....really mean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 164. CybrTeddy:
Worth noting that it appears Erin's genesis was the result of a kelvin wave, as the MJO comes around to our basin storms will probably develop in quick abundance off Africa. All signs pointing towards a very active third and fourth week of August..

lets see if GFS responds to this. so far it has not. northern bias. will it correct itself
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
170. IKE

Quoting scottsvb:
92L is actually just inland SW of Cancun but it's still mostly a elongated trough of low pressure
i thought it was further north. Also see a spin north of the Yucatan...in the GOM,.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello everyone. if 92L does become a rain maker for the Florida panhandle, when can the panhandle expect the rain to arrive and for how long? we have a little trip planned :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello to all! Quick question, and my apologies ahead of time for any ignorance the question displays. Is it possible (and if so, has it ever happened) for an existing wave with two competing coc's to actually split, with each coc forming into its own storm? And then, can those two storms head in opposite directions? Thanks in advance for any info!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks a bit like a convective collapse is beginning to occur in 92L again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Worth noting that it appears Erin's genesis was the result of a kelvin wave, as the MJO comes around to our basin storms will probably develop in quick abundance off Africa. All signs pointing towards a very active third and fourth week of August..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave behind Erin looks... dangerous. I hope 92L does become Fernand because then the big wave behind Erin (if named) would be Gabrielle. And Gabrielle sounds much more threatening then Fernand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 147. GetReal:





All I see is a stalled trough axis just off the east coast of the Yucatan. The convection blow up is being aided by the geography of the area and warm SST.
Pressure is a 1008mb moving 301 degrees WNW. Combined with strong thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean, it has the potiential to close it off.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting 139. Nimitz:


I got that way once at a party and my ex-wife spotted me...thankfully found a way out :)


LOL. You remind me of an Admiral I used to know.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting 156. Grothar:


Hey, I may be old, and I may be feeble. And my jaw cracks when I eat and I have noticeable trouble digesting raw vegetables, but the one thing I have is a good memory. If you don't believe me, just ask what's him name.


Certainly no offense intended, sir. :)

FWIW, 'what's him name' DID vouch for you unflinchingly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 140. seminolesfan:
Multiple competing low vorts in the GOM?

Hmmm; Sounds like something I posted about two or so days back. :)

Maybe I'm suffering from Grothar-Memory-Displacement Syndrome...

EDIT: Nope, found it.


Hey, I may be old, and I may be feeble. And my jaw cracks when I eat and I have noticeable trouble digesting raw vegetables, but the one thing I have is a good memory. If you don't believe me, just ask what's his name.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
129. ricderr ok because I live on the east coast of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L is actually just inland SW of Cancun but it's still mostly a elongated trough of low pressure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS shows the wave behind erin coming off N of CV islands while it clearly will be south of CV. watch it, could be a big threat down the road
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 148. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning I see 92L was able to generate some thunderstorms near the center, but it is nearing the coast the feature to the north of it is interesting. Also I see we have a new tropical storm Erin which puts us at 5/0/0.





It's good to see the tropics finally picking up again and I wouldn't rule out our first hurricane by the end of the this month.

Looks like Erin is attached to the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 143. HurricaneAndre:
Did not capture COC.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting 114. tropicfreak:


Somewhat apparent too on Rainbow, around 19.5N 86W






It might be a tad farther south and west than what you have, but yeah, there is something going on in that area. Will have to watch it to see what it does.



Quoting 118. Jedkins01:
br>Besides, since when was dry and fair weather ever exciting? We'll be getting plenty of frontal passages followed by cooler dry weather in a few months so enjoy the daily tropical connection while it lasts. Its good for wildlife and ecology.



Never, cool, dry, and fair weather is never fun and exciting. It's boring to forecast and boring to be in. Most of us got interested in the weather because of some form of severe weather, whether that be tornadoes, flooding, hurricanes etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 144. HurricaneHunterJoe:
looks like the COC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning I see 92L was able to generate some thunderstorms near the center, but it is nearing the coast the feature to the north of it is interesting. Also I see we have a new tropical storm Erin which puts us at 5/0/0.





It's good to see the tropics finally picking up again and I wouldn't rule out our first hurricane by the end of the this month.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 120. scott39:
Strong convection over 92L and tightning up as we type. TD soon? Hmmm





All I see is a stalled trough axis just off the east coast of the Yucatan. The convection blow up is being aided by the geography of the area and warm SST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 105. redwagon:


Really, a CIMSS sfc vort map should be posted with/for 10N40W shots...


I've been asking them for years.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Shear is not inhibiting developement over 92Ls center for the time being. You have to watch where the COC is located.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know how Dr. Masters says that 92L lost most of its convection overnight? Could that have been from D-MIN?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 192 - 142

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron