Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.
Reminds me of Hurricane Carlos in 2009 they have good conditions ahead but never strengthen and even weaken.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4003
Quoting 231. seminolesfan:

Look dude. I know you are smart. We all do. That isn't the point. There are TONS of smart folks around.

What is your hypothesis? You asked a question, did you not?

What is with the attitude? You talk to Levi the same way. For some reason...

What are you trying to prove? Can you cite peer-reviewed evidence against my theory? Because that is how the scientific method works.
Want to disprove a theory? Gotta find one that fits better!



You are making an argument against yourself? What about your own hypothesis?

Common man, you too are smart, but what Drak said is true, its merely speculation...

There's nothing wrong with discussing possibilities, but it is nothing but speculation. We don't want to make a habit of turning hypotheses into something more than it is.
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Quoting 197. Grothar:
I think it is odd the official track takes 92L north and the CMC switched from west to North.





Ahh if it weren't for those medaling models.
A WNW track might not be bad at all for Texas even if it stays in MX. If that happens and conditions setup right we could see some of that residual moisture in our area in the form of t-storms. I'll take whatever we can get at this point.
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if I read the scheduled recon flights correctly, is the first flight not taking off until 5 pm today?
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Quoting 232. Skyepony:
92L..land is hurting it, but may feed it some daytime convection..



Lack of mountains in the Yucatan (pretty flat area) shouldn't do too much damage to 92L...
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Thus begins the real 2013 Cape Verde Season.
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At least some thoughts for the very poor people in Sudan beneath the African megablobs. Seems to be a major desaster down there. --- Meanwhile Namibia in the southern hemisphere surely would be glad to take some of those downpours as they were lacking rains for already two years.


Published 14.08.2013
150 Thousand People Affected in Sudan Flood. Heavy rains and flash floods in Sudan have killed at least 36 people and forced thousands to leave their homes. The number of people affected by this month's flooding in Sudan has climbed to about 150000 and is expected to rise further. Young people use social media to draw attention to thousands left without shelter, food and clean water.


Sudan: SPLM-N Urges Khartoum to Declare State of Emergency in Sudan, 14 August 2013

Sudan: More Flood Aid Flows Into Sudan From Qatar And Ethiopia, Egypt Pledges Assistance, 13 August 2013
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Quoting 222. StormWx:


Jason, i'm afraid it won't. But if it does, you can say you told me so.

OMG is Jason back? How many times can I put him on ignore?
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It looks like it is trying to wrap into that spin in the middle of the GoM.
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Quoting 216. StormWx:
The Yucatan, home of the Mayans. However, they werent very good at predicting the end of the world.


modern humans, well they aren't either, don't blame them ;)
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232. Skyepony (Mod)
92L..land is hurting it, but may feed it some daytime convection..

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Quoting 224. Drakoen:


That is speculation. Can you provide me with peer-review evidence that forced convergence inhibits development of a low level circulation. 92L would not be the first wave to be full of mid level energy but lacking at the surface.

Look dude. I know you are smart. We all do. That isn't the point. There are TONS of smart folks around.

What is your hypothesis? You asked a question, did you not?

What is with the attitude? You talk to Levi the same way. For some reason...

What are you trying to prove? Can you cite peer-reviewed evidence against my theory? Because that is how the scientific method works.
Want to disprove a theory? Gotta find one that fits better!
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230. Mikla
12Z GFS @ 96hours: Erin losing strength, new low off Africa...
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You can see where a stronger storm would have ended up going right towards the west coast of FL.

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Quoting 168. Drakoen:
92L had pristine conditions for development yesterday. It just goes to show that we don't understand fully the governing physical and dynamic mechanisms behind tropical cyclone development.



That's for sure...
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Quoting 217. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hang on just a sec. don't give up on 92L. Might be it's last stand in the GOM.





Wow, the GFS is really struggling to make up its mind with this system.
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We may be seeing the beginning of 92L splitting into 2 systems.

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Quoting 215. seminolesfan:


The answer is right there. Forced convergence on the eastern side of the gyre containing the mid level energy prevented the broad low from consolidating. The energy input was asymetrical and there was no structure actually being built. It was just a convective show.


That is speculation. Can you provide me with peer-review evidence that forced convergence inhibits development of a low level circulation. 92L would not be the first wave to be full of mid level energy but lacking at the surface.
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm Erin will hit the east coast!!


Jason, i'm afraid it won't. But if it does, you can say you told me so.
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You have to love the bi-polar nature of this blog:)
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If anything develops today, it will be SE of Cozumel where the newest convection is firing. Currently, it still looks to be elongated vorticity just along the east coast of Belize and the Yucatan. Worst case might be it moves through the Channel and not over the Yucatan and develops in the Southern GOM. Possible based upon the latest satellite images.
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Quoting 213. SouthernIllinois:

LOL TrueCajun. I am going to say not a chance it comes up to the Panhandle. But if it does, it will get absorbed into a shortwave or fast moving trough and get swept off very fast. I don't anticipate long lasting heavy rains for you guys.


thanks! we are definitely going either way, but i was just curious. glad that if it does rain, it won't be for too long.
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Quoting 110. SouthernIllinois:

I see. I SO hope that is true cuz warmer weather means the pool season extends into maybe OCTOBER! YAY!!!! Ok I was not alive when Mickey Gilley was at the peak of his game but saw on a science channel about how they were predicting like the next ice age after the brutal cold in the 70's and early 80's. Let me put it to you this way. If I heard that news I would be DEVASTATED!! Better warmer than colder. I just HOPE their predictions come true this time around and IT DOES get hotter!!! :)


Pool season extending into October? In Illinois? I wouldn't rest your hope on that if I were you, but I guess if you want to dream lol.

Here in Florida, we have a while to go before pool season is over, although I prefer the ocean to the pool, it too has a while left, since gulf water temps are near 90. Although since I'm moving back to FSU next week since school starts on the 26th, I'll be too far away from the ocean to go there.

Keep in mind though, in regards to Climate Change, you have to remember that warming is on a mean global scale. With that being said, there will be a lot of change in synoptic patterns that will make people doubt the existence of warming, but that is because people are not thinking climate vs an individual weather pattern.


Now, I still think its hard to determine how much warming is man made vs natural, although research suggest a large position of it is man blamed from CO2. Still though, my biggest contention to AGW predictions as apposed to the observed science so far itself is how will long term climate change actually change the planet? Will there be unexpected changes? A lot to me remains yet to be seen.

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Hang on just a sec. don't give up on 92L. Might be it's last stand in the GOM.



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The Yucatan, home of the Mayans. However, they werent very good at predicting the end of the world.
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Quoting 200. Drakoen:


That's not the question. The question is why wasn't a well defined low level circulation able to form. What you have state are just attributes of the system and not necessarily inhibitors.


The answer is right there. Forced convergence on the eastern side of the gyre containing the mid level energy prevented the broad low from consolidating. The energy input was asymetrical and there was no structure actually being built. It was just a convective show.
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Dr. Masters says, "92L is growing more organized this morning"
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I think the TWO will increase 92L's chances,and it has gotton better organized and more convection has been increasing,and I would not be be suprised of a renumber to TD6.Also,we will have the wave over Africa in the TWO,and the Central Atlantic.Also the wave in the Central Atlantic probably be an invest either today or tomorrow.The wave over Africa,with the model support,we could very well see a storm and possibly from that system.
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All aboard the wave train.

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Quoting 202. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep it did, but it did well in sniffing out 92L since 2 weeks ago, but 92L might have failed us all. Conditions were good yesterday for strengthening and it didn't take advantage of that. There might be one last shot in the Central GOM and as it nears the coastline. Anyways I say this is a win for the FIM regardless of what happens.


Hi GT. Post the 12z GFS to see how it does with Erin and the waves behind.
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Tropical Storm Erin will hit the east coast!!
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Poor quality radar - but there appears to be a broad low level circulation.
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Quoting 169. truecajun:
hello everyone. if 92L does become a rain maker for the Florida panhandle, when can the panhandle expect the rain to arrive and for how long? we have a little trip planned :(



BUMP BUMP BUMP
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Quoting 197. Grothar:
I think it is odd the official track takes 92L north and the CMC switched from west to North.





I'm guessing it's a spin off of the energy that heads north.
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Quoting 182. rmbjoe1954:


Admiral james Tiberius Kirk?


No, Admiral Nimitz.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
Post 147 in particular shows well the strong influence of the ULL as it slams its drier air into 92L, in addition to the shear between lower and upper levels. Outside of yesterday afternoon when 92L started to get that "balled-up fist" look, this one's organization has not been impressive to me.

The atmosphere over the Gulf has been anything but usual summer, if memory serves me. It's most readily apparent in the shots of warm/cold anomalies at depths, with the Gulf split in half between cold depths in the Eastern Gulf and plenty of warm deepwater in the Western Gulf.

As long as the Atlantic continues firing ULLs across Florida and the Southern Gulf, it's going to be interesting to see how tropical entities in the Caribbean are able to deal....
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Quoting 188. 62901IL:

It got rid of the storm!
Yep it did, but it did well in sniffing out 92L since 2 weeks ago, but 92L might have failed us all. Conditions were good yesterday for strengthening and it didn't take advantage of that. There might be one last shot in the Central GOM and as it nears the coastline. Anyways I say this is a win for the FIM regardless of what happens.
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Quoting 172. ihave27windows:


I have a 22 yr old daughter named Gabrielle, and she is mean.....really mean.

Well, there you go its meant to be a mean storm then
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Quoting 184. seminolesfan:


A large gyre without a defined LLV being fed by forced convergenceis 'pristine conditions'?



That's not the question. The question is why wasn't a well defined low level circulation able to form. What you have state are just attributes of the system and not necessarily inhibitors.
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92L 1008mb is now moving 303 degrees WNW at 10mph. Still has time over the best waters in the Atlantic to develope. Ive seen many do it in the same place. This is IMHO.
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I think it is odd the official track takes 92L north and the CMC switched from west to North.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
Ferdie, because that will be its name soon, will surf through the Yucatan strait with little land contact. I think it will be interesting to see where it goes if it develops into a cane. If they are sending 4 planes into this system it's because they are worried.
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Quoting 156. Grothar:


Hey, I may be old, and I may be feeble. And my jaw cracks when I eat and I have noticeable trouble digesting raw vegetables, but the one thing I have is a good memory. If you don't believe me, just ask what's him name.


Did you ship your pants yesterday too?

Looks like the US mainland maybe safe for the time being...
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Quoting 178. truecajun:


i think they call that a Yin Yang situation?? I'll leave it to the pros to better answer you, but I recall watching something like that happen before


but maybe the bigger better one ends up "consuming" the smaller one? someone help me out here
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I'm expecting to see a naked swirl crossing the Yucatan later today.
At least then we'll know where its center is located.

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Quoting 189. tornadodude:


An amazing beer! lol

I see we have Erin now, currently 75 degrees here with low humidity. I love it!

And was the statement you posted real or made-up?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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