Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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The GFS is really showing Cape-Verde season taking off now. 2 more systems showing up behind Erin. Link

So much for the bustcasters being right. LOL
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Quoting 324. thelmores:


I believe we are starting to see a surface circulation forming.....

Subject to peer review......


lol......
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Anyone doing NDBC Buoy tags today?

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Quoting 71. tropicfreak:


You said it was done for....

It is not.

Still has the gulf to go through.

And weren't you being sarcastic late last night about the amount of convection it was firing, and how you insisted DMAX has peaked?



what are you talking about? I never said it was done and I never insisted once that Dmax had peaked. I said Dmin had peaked hours ago and it still not firing convection.
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Quoting 250. PinholeEye:
Convection really blossoming again with 92L.
And I am pretty sure it will pull a Dorian tonight like yesterday.
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Quoting 221. scott39:
You have to love the bi-polar nature of this blog:)

More like schizoid!
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Quoting 319. Perfectweather23:
i called that 93l/now erin out to sea yesterday morning first lol... i know i was totally wrong and nuts yesterday for forcasting that lolol


ERIN is another waste of a name. Lol just to grow the final number XD... kidding of course.
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Besides the more dominant Bermuda high and subsequent ridging to the west, another reason we will most likely see US impacts from Cape Verde waves is like 92L when they are weak until they develop in and around the Caribbean. This way even if there is a tendency for stronger storms to be pulled to the north in the Atlantic, they will avoid this.
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333. 7544
watching the northern part of 92l heading north into the gulf on the west side of fl will the front push that 2nd blob of convection to the nne over the state ?tia
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Hi thel..

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Quoting 308. unknowncomic:
Yes, but would it in the future? (1 day, 5 days)
Once it is caught in that steering there is no going back.
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Quoting 301. SouthernIllinois:


Put this in front of the color you want and then this after it.

Should work FMG!! :)




If folks didn't understand that, simply "Quote" the post at 301 (or this one) and you'll see the guts of what to do. :-)

Key words are Strong and Span.
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Even EARL reached us ... and it was a strong storm! Those short lived pathetic things are not even able to stay south of 15N in the E Atlantic. Definitely BORING!
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Quoting 266. Drakoen:
3 land stations south of a suspect circulation west of Cozumel reporting westerly winds.


I believe we are starting to see a surface circulation forming.....

Subject to peer review......
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322. Kumo
Quoting 274. calkevin77:


We've had 29 100+ degree days in 2013 with 16 of them consecutive up until yesterday here in Austin. Still far from the 89 100+ degree days we had in 2011 but this year is shaping up to be on the high end of normal warm here. I've noticed H-town getting more diurnal storms coming off the coast so that's good.


Hopefully we can send some of it your way. Hill Country weather is no joke. I remember you folks got a bad ice storm back in the mid-90's. I spent the Summer of '03 over in San Antonio at on Ft. Sam, I don't think there was a moment during the day where my uniform was not soaked from sweat, lol.
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Friday POD

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 151507
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 15 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/1200-1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 16/1530Z C. 16/0930Z
D. 21.0N 91.5W D. 22.5N 92.5W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2200Z E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
AT 16/0100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
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Quoting 301. SouthernIllinois:
Nevermind!! So hard to explain. I can't do it!!


Didn't work. Oh well :)
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Quoting 303. Perfectweather23:
i have 11 people on my ignore list from yesterday that said i was dead wrong and nuts when i said 92l would cross the central yucatan then into the b.o.c. then south central mexico.. can you say crow crow
. Then why is the NAVGEM , have it on Louisiana's doorstep HMMN!
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 141729
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 15/1700Z A. 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 15/1430Z C. 15/1730Z
D. 19.0N 87.0W D. NA
E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 15/2100Z A. 16/0900Z
B. NOAA3 03BBA RADAR B. NOAA2 O405A CYCLONE
C. 15/1800Z C. 16/0600Z
D. 19.8N 87.8W D. 21.6N 89.1W
E. 15/2000Z TO 16/0030Z E. 16/0730Z TO 16/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 16/0930Z
D. 22.0N 89.5W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.
C. ANOTHER P-3 MISSION AT 16/1800Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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what happens IF..92 decides to ride the yucatan coastline..northwards?..its feeling the other low..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
Quoting 299. opal92nwf:
Charley was picked up by a fairly deep trough at this time in 2004. Since they were having a deeper trough then, and then they turned out to have Caribbean trackers and Florida landfalls, I reckon we have that potential this year too, and the fact that we haven't had a pattern like that in some time.
I posted the steering charts earlier if 92L had been a tropical storm right now it would likely be lifting up towards the north and then northeast into the west coast of FL. that ULL would have blocked all westward movement and the ULL to the east of the Bahamas would have cut through the A-B High. But that has all come to past now, so we can breath another day on here. ;)
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Quoting 287. Skyepony:
Click pick for loop..
I'm no met or anything and surely don't know how to read these imageries. But to my untrained eye is that a new center just over the tip of the Ucatan? I don't know the cordinates but its looks a little swirlie there. Any response appreciated.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
312. CJ5
Quoting 303. Perfectweather23:
i have 11 people on my ignore list from yesterday that said i was dead wrong and nuts when i said 92l would cross the central yucatan then into the b.o.c. then south central mexico.. can you say crow crow


I suggest you hold off on the bragging. It has not even crossed the Yucatan yet.
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Quoting 252. StormWx:
All current signs point to weakening in the long run and a right turn to sea for Erin.



Oh my ..... NEXT NEXT NEXT QUICK!!!
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It appears that all recon flights into 92L for today have been cancelled, probably due to it's close proximity to land.


got this off facebook
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Quoting 229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You can see where a stronger storm would have ended up going right towards the west coast of FL.

Yes, but would it in the future? (1 day, 5 days)
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Quoting 302. unknowncomic:
yes watching that closely..exactly where Nam had it earlier.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
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Quoting 278. unknowncomic:
I see a weakness!
. No weakness .
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Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Quoting 246. seminolesfan:


I see what you are getting at Jed.

I don't see how 'speculation' is now off-topic here.

That is basically ALL this comments section is...



Yeah I wasn't suggesting it was off topic, in fact I was suggesting the opposite, nothing wrong with speculating, that is what the blog is for practically, and its fun, lol.

I was making a point that we have to be careful not to elevate our speculation over another bloggers speculation as if it attains greater merit. Its better to remain at peace I think. Not say I have kept to this perfectly, I have gotten in meaningless arguments as well. However, my goal is to be at peace with others here, and I'm just encouraging the same for everyone else :)
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Charley was picked up by a fairly deep trough at this time in 2004. Since they were having a deeper trough then, and then they turned out to have Caribbean trackers and Florida landfalls, I reckon we have that potential this year too, and the fact that we haven't had a pattern like that in some time.
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Groovin' on the freeway, gauge is on the red
gun down on my gasoline, believe I'm gonna crack a head


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Quoting 288. GTstormChaserCaleb:


How did you get the color?
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Quoting 265. opal92nwf:
Well look at that Bermuda high and associated ridging to the East. I really think we are not going to have another 2010, track wise, with this high.

. How very true! No recurves .
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294. CJ5
Quoting 257. Drakoen:
I think there is an oversensitivity issue with this blog and emotions are not well portrayed through text. I made my statement and questions as any inquiring scientist would make; it was not to berate or ridicule someone on their opinion.


I would have to agree with you. I also agree when there is an exchange between persons who claim or exhibit direct knowledge of a subject, the discussion must include more specific and credible information. "I think" doesn't cut it.
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Quoting 270. TXCWC:


yup, problem is if you want to see any serious development the center is already over land...will have to wait for it to come out on Gulf side to see if she has anything in store for us



Finally, a closed Low over land! Crazy!
Quoting 270. TXCWC:


yup, problem is if you want to see any serious development the center is already over land...will have to wait for it to come out on Gulf side to see if she has anything in store for us



Finally, a closed llc over LAND.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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