Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Share this Blog
73
+

The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 392 - 342

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Quoting 375. wunderweatherman123:
12z GFS shows a wave train


A fish train is more appropriate :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 383. HCW:


They know about the problem and said it will be fixed this afternoon


Its not a problem as the page is active.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
390. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 313. mrsalagranny:
I'm no met or anything and surely don't know how to read these imageries. But to my untrained eye is that a new center just over the tip of the Ucatan? I don't know the cordinates but its looks a little swirlie there. Any response appreciated.


That almost looks like it might be a very weak surface low ejecting west. Sometimes these multi-vorticy things will spit one out that quickly dies. I spotted that when I posted it. Certainly an interesting feature to watch frame by frame..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 358. opal92nwf:

What in the world?! It looks like the Bermuda high completely disappears for a good deal of this run! Maybe we will have to rely on weak, undeveloped tropical waves scooting the Atlantic or home grown stuff if we are going to see CONUS landfalls.
Things change quickly. September could bring a titanium high.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1789
Quoting 380. Drakoen:


What happens when you leave an amateur to do a pros job.


Indeed, ie: the replacement NFL officials move last year comes to my mind.

But then a lotta tings do,lately.

: )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 370. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm right there with you, Chantal and Dorian taught us a lesson, not all Cape-Verde storms recurve OTS as some here would like to think. I would also caution in looking at the long range GFS as it is prone to large errors and inconsistencies. I mean I am not stopping anyone from looking at them and posting them here. Now watch the next run show nothing.

Yes, also if I remember right, the GFS tends to recurve systems that are way out in the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 370. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm right there with you, Chantal and Dorian taught us a lesson, not all Cape-Verde storms recurve OTS as some here would like to think. I would also caution in looking at the long range GFS as it is prone to large errors and inconsistencies. I mean I am not stopping anyone from looking at them and posting them here. Now watch the next run show nothing.

They are models and are wrong often, heck 6 days ago the GFS showed nothing on its run and it was all quiet, but we have Erin out there now, I figured we would get something to watch and we did. The Chart never lets us down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting 369. Grothar:


This is one of the hottest summers in South Florida I can remember, and the humidity is almost unbearable.


I would have to agree, I have lived in Tampa Bay area all my life and I can't recall a summer with so much heat and humidity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
383. HCW
Quoting 376. Patrap:
Dunno wats up wit the Floater Guys, but they have had 92L in the East Pacific since 05L was declared yesterday

Might be intern week maybe?


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters


They know about the problem and said it will be fixed this afternoon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 378. CaribBoy:
I just can't believe what I'm seeing on the 12Z GFS! A succession of fishes! Where is the ridge lol... and why do they come off at 20N or close to that!
. No fish !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 322. Kumo:


Hopefully we can send some of it your way. Hill Country weather is no joke. I remember you folks got a bad ice storm back in the mid-90's. I spent the Summer of '03 over in San Antonio at on Ft. Sam, I don't think there was a moment during the day where my uniform was not soaked from sweat, lol.


Oh I hear ya. I did my fire academy back in 2011 and graduation was in June. Most of our live fire evolutions and HAZMAT were right before then so those dew points got up there. The heat by itself is fine. When those dew points start hitting the 60s and 70s is when it really hurts. Ft. Sam roasts this time of the year. They should have had you up in Ft. Drum for the Summer and given you some relief haha. At any rate thank you for your service.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 376. Patrap:
Dunno wats up wit the Floater Guys, but they have had 92L in the East Pacific since 05L was declared yesterday

Might be intern week maybe?


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters


What happens when you leave an amateur to do a pros job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 339. Patrap:
Anyone doing NDBC Buoy tags today?

. Have you seen Patrap's sat pic , that trough is digging into the BOC , it won't be going to Mexico , that's going to block it , so from Florida to Louisiana , is most likely where 92 L is going!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just can't believe what I'm seeing on the 12Z GFS! A succession of fishes! Where is the ridge lol... and why do they come off at 20N or close to that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dunno wats up wit the Floater Guys, but they have had 92L in the East Pacific since 05L was declared yesterday

Might be intern week maybe?


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS shows a wave train
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 342. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS is really showing Cape-Verde season taking off now. 2 more systems showing up behind Erin. Link

So much for the bustcasters being right. LOL


whats with the low that sits over the Northern part of the US for two weeks??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14637
Quoting 346. CaribBoy:
The wave or whatever it is .. located at 40W.. looks good. Wondering if it'll do something interesting XD


Could be another 92L type system. If it keeps happening that way, we are bound to get something more strong and interesting than 92L (up to this point) as the season goes toward the peak!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 363. CaribBoy:


And I guess of them are fishes :(

Why not just watch and see what happens instead of assuming a track for a storm that has not form yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 334. opal92nwf:
Besides the more dominant Bermuda high and subsequent ridging to the west, another reason we will most likely see US impacts from Cape Verde waves is like 92L when they are weak until they develop in and around the Caribbean. This way even if there is a tendency for stronger storms to be pulled to the north in the Atlantic, they will avoid this.
I'm right there with you, Chantal and Dorian taught us a lesson, not all Cape-Verde storms recurve OTS as some here would like to think. I would also caution in looking at the long range GFS as it is prone to large errors and inconsistencies. I mean I am not stopping anyone from looking at them and posting them here. Now watch the next run show nothing.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Quoting 350. robintampabay:


How are you 4 for 5 this season, your join date was from this past Sunday. 90 in Tampa with a feel like of 102


This is one of the hottest summers in South Florida I can remember, and the humidity is almost unbearable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
367. DDR
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 351. Grothar:
Why don't we not post models at all during the season, but just insult each other until a storm either strikes or dissipates?


you sleep too much. there :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Aren't D-min and D-max reversed over land? Asking because it seems like whatever low is associated with 92L is entering the Yucatan just in time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 342. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS is really showing Cape-Verde season taking off now. 2 more systems showing up behind Erin. Link

So much for the bustcasters being right. LOL


And I guess ALL of them are fishes :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 351. Grothar:
Why don't we not post models at all during the season, but just insult each other until a storm either strikes or dissipates?


The Horror, the Horror..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see that Erin went from 14.5 to 14.4W but keep it WNW. Isn't that WSW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 264. StormWx:
For anyone wondering the history of storms that formed near where Erin has formed, and the tracks they have taken, lets take a look at this graphic.



For those thinking it will make a run at the Caribbean, no storm has ever made it there from where Erin formed.

For those thinking it will make a run at the east coast, well, one has made it. Now can the bashing stop about forecasting a recurve to sea? TIA :-)
Which is the storm that make landfall in South Carolina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 351. Grothar:
Why don't we not post models at all during the season, but just insult each other until a storm either strikes or dissipates?


Post of the day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 342. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS is really showing Cape-Verde season taking off now. 2 more systems showing up behind Erin. Link

So much for the bustcasters being right. LOL

What in the world?! It looks like the Bermuda high completely disappears for a good deal of this run! Maybe we will have to rely on weak, undeveloped tropical waves scooting the Atlantic or home grown stuff if we are going to see CONUS landfalls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. T3CH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 350. robintampabay:


How are you 4 for 5 this season, your join date was from this past Sunday. 90 in Tampa with a feel like of 102


lol busted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 343. opal92nwf:

Yes, great example of this is Melissa in 2007. What a poor, north biased, weakling! lol




Lol absolutely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. CJ5
Quoting 328. Perfectweather23:
true true but if i did nail it ill be 3 for 4 so far this year.. and if erin does the out to sea ill be 4 for 5 this season and i predicted all my forcasts days before


Wow! It sounds like you should skip posting here and go directly to the NHC where your superior knowledge would be a help to all of mankind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water vapor, as GT showed, gives us a good grasp of the steering. Since 92 never developed a LLC and wasn't far north enough, it didn't feel the weakness and steering and thus traveled more west. You can see some energy from 92 moving toward south FL now from said steering. If 92 develops in the gulf, a quicker northern track is likely, but not as far east as was possible yesterday. If it fails to organize it should continue more west. Not going to speculate yet on what exactly will play out in the gulf but condition in the BOC do support development for a time.

Sorry for not putting up WV, on my phone. Storm last night seemed to cause my modem some issues I'm trying to fix.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2694
Why don't we not post models at all during the season, but just insult each other until a storm either strikes or dissipates?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 328. Perfectweather23:
true true but if i did nail it ill be 3 for 4 so far this year.. and if erin does the out to sea ill be 4 for 5 this season and i predicted all my forcasts days before


How are you 4 for 5 this season, your join date was from this past Sunday. 90 in Tampa with a feel like of 102
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 323. SouthernIllinois:

I will WU email mail you sometime and explain if you want. It worked cuz i wrote someone else how to do it so if i find the email will forward to you. It is so easy FMG!


Ok thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Nice graph. See instead of mocking me you can make great post as this one here. Keep it up!


Thanks! But i love mocking you. I'm surprised you still have power today, i expected all that rain forecasted for central florida you posted would have you flooded out by now. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave or whatever it is .. located at 40W.. looks good. Wondering if it'll do something interesting XD

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 264. StormWx:
For anyone wondering the history of storms that formed near where Erin has formed, and the tracks they have taken, lets take a look at this graphic.



For those thinking it will make a run at the Caribbean, no storm has ever made it there from where Erin formed.

For those thinking it will make a run at the east coast, well, one has made it. Now can the bashing stop about forecasting a recurve to sea? TIA :-)


Erin might take the track like Leslie did last year. Leslie exploded with a fudge fetch range in the middle of the Atlantic. A giant fish storm no doubt. Produced fun waves here on the east coast of FL for days on end. That was in the beginning of Sept.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 326. CaribBoy:
Even EARL reached us ... and it was a strong storm! Those short lived pathetic things are not even able to stay south of 15N in the E Atlantic. Definitely BORING!

Yes, great example of this is Melissa in 2007. What a poor, north biased, weakling! lol


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS is really showing Cape-Verde season taking off now. 2 more systems showing up behind Erin. Link

So much for the bustcasters being right. LOL
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698

Viewing: 392 - 342

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.