Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 434. java162:



cmc....hmmmmm
The CMC might be on to something look at the convection at 40 W associated with the monsoon trough.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8761
Since it's now getting into the peak of the season, you would think conditions would be favorable for a legitimate Cape Verde storm that is able to organize and stay that way. Yet, it looks as if Erin will be more of the same.

It could sneak across the Atlantic, heading west and then develop and be a threat to the East Coast, but based on what we have seen in the recent past, I doubt it.
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Quoting 434. java162:



cmc....hmmmmm
Only three CV lows in the Atlantic. what's wrong with that GEM.
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No joke we do not take storms lightly here, we live in a fish bowl we must take precautions to protect our people and property.
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Quoting 408. palmbeachinlet:
Agree...came to Port Charlotte from West Palm Beach and it's an oven over here...the sea breezes do not exist here and the last two weeks have been the hottest I have ever felt


No offense to my west coast Florida neighbors, but I don't go over to the west coast in summer unless it is an emergency. And even then I weigh how much I like the person.
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Quoting 434. java162:



cmc....hmmmmm
I think we will see a new AOI at 2pm et.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
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cmc....hmmmmm
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Quoting 413. CaribBoy:


Ok GT, I'll pay more attention to that 1016mb isobar :) Hopefully it extends farrrrr west lol


Do you want me to wishcast 10N40W to you? What cat you want?
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Quoting 423. unknowncomic:
There's many to come behind Erin.
Another 7 or 8 waves before we can close the books on CV season this year...
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Quoting 424. washingtonian115:
It was cold outside this morning for August.At R.N.A it was 60 degrees.At my house it was 59 degrees (again likely thanks to more trees being around).Still it was cold o_0.Even before this I noted 3 weeks ago that some of the trees have started to change.One around from my house some leaves have already turned reddish orange!.Impressive for sure.I hope this cool pattern continues into fall and winter.I'll be a happy person.


mid next week heat is on rebound starts over the weekend

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Now the GEM is insisting on dragging a cold front through the west coast of FL. after 92L links up with it along the northeastern gulf. Will be interesting to see the transition and if it comes to fruition. In 2004 saw a similar pattern when a cold front swung Charley quickly off to the northeast and cleared the entire state. I think SW FL. residents can relate the day after was blue skies.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8761
Quoting 424. washingtonian115:
It was cold outside this morning for August.At R.N.A it was 60 degrees.At my house it was 59 degrees (again likely thanks to more trees being around).Still it was cold o_0.Even before this I noted 3 weeks ago that some of the trees have started to change.One around from my house some leaves have already turned reddish orange!.Impressive for sure.I hope this cool pattern continues into fall and winter.I'll be a happy person.

That will make it better for the Atlantic because all the upward motion and warmth will be focused there.
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Quoting 366. MisterPerfect:


you sleep too much. there :p


That's more like it. But I want to see peer-reviewed paper explaining why that is not good for me.
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Quoting 411. Grothar:
Looks like another flareup of contention around 92L.



lol
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It was cold outside this morning for August.At R.N.A it was 60 degrees.At my house it was 59 degrees (again likely thanks to more trees being around).Still it was cold o_0.Even before this I noted 3 weeks ago that some of the trees have started to change.One around from my house some leaves have already turned reddish orange!.Impressive for sure.I hope this cool pattern continues into fall and winter.I'll be a happy person.
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Quoting 403. CaribBoy:
NHC will shift ERIN's track significantly NW... I knew the northern models would win.
Dorin was a nightmare, and now Erin.
There's many to come behind Erin.
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422. yoboi
Quoting 412. Dakster:


Wow. Already? Are you kidding me?



I live in the sw part of la and I am not observing any such thing.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2519
Quoting 411. Grothar:
Looks like another flareup of contention around 92L.


lol.
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I love these moments. Go back to yesterdays posts concerning this system. 99%, and all but one computer stating that this low would definitely make landfall somewhere along the east half of the Gulfs norrthern coast. MAny commenters even being rude to the one or two who said that maybe Mexico, or the southern coast of Texass shouldnlt be ruled out.

So computer models, and commenters lacking reasoning skills take that!
;)
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Quoting 398. CaribBoy:


Late august and september could be very dry because of that...

I think we are bound to get something really interesting before Dec. 1st. Maybe the equivalent of a Frederic:

Or an Eloise:
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Gulf of Mexico Imagery


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Quoting 390. Skyepony:


That almost looks like it might be a very weak surface low ejecting west. Sometimes these multi-vorticy things will spit one out that quickly dies. I spotted that when I posted it. Certainly an interesting feature to watch frame by frame..
thank you Skye for your response. I saw the swirl and thought that looks interesting. Could it possibly develope and that's what the gfs was picking up on?TIA
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Quoting 411. Grothar:
Looks like another flareup of contention around 92L.

contention will flare up and down for the day here
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414. 7544
isnt there still alot of dry air out there for these cape v stroms to pull apunch as we can see what its goin to do to erin latter on this week and thats why the gfs shows nada nada nada
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Quoting 400. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And you would believe it too don't be gullible and drawn into the GFS like a spell, it will likely change from run to run. Those storms, where are those storms now? They are all figments of imagination until there actually exists a low to track. I need to start taking my own advise. Take the long range with a grain of salt, if anything we have learned so far this season is that the ridging has been far underestimated in regards to Chantal and Dorian, until I see otherwise no reason to buy into that pattern change off of one run, like I said the 1016 mb. line is what you need to know and how far that extends. I thank moonlightcowboy for pointing that out to me.


Ok GT, I'll pay more attention to that 1016mb isobar :) Hopefully it extends farrrrr west lol
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Quoting 396. weatherrx:
Appears south Louisiana is not taking 92L lightly, long lines at the gas station people filling up gas cans. Home Depot are running out of plywood and grocery stores shelves are running out of can goods. Let hunker down its gonna be a wild ride.


Wow. Already? Are you kidding me?
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Looks like another flareup of contention around 92L.

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Quoting 404. CybrTeddy:
The GFS keeps on insisting that a 999mb tropical wave will emerge off Africa during 60 hours, without any convection, and tugging the wave to the south to the north that is more likely to develop.
teddy northward bias, the entire run is biased. take those waves the GFS shows south and they are tropical storms. wave train coming
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The 92L FLoater is in way to close to see the whole envelope. I use the WFO GOM View here.


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Agree...came to Port Charlotte from West Palm Beach and it's an oven over here...the sea breezes do not exist here and the last two weeks have been the hottest I have ever felt
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90C should get a renumber anytime now:

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405. FOREX
Quoting 396. weatherrx:
Appears south Louisiana is not taking 92L lightly, long lines at the gas station people filling up gas cans. Home Depot are running out of plywood and grocery stores shelves are running out of can goods. Let hunker down its gonna be a wild ride.


Are you a troll?
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The GFS keeps on insisting that a 999mb tropical wave will emerge off Africa during 60 hours, without any convection, and tugging the wave to the south to the north that is more likely to develop.
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NHC will shift ERIN's track significantly NW... I knew the northern models would win.
Dorin was a nightmare, and now Erin.
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Quoting 396. weatherrx:
Appears south Louisiana is not taking 92L lightly, long lines at the gas station people filling up gas cans. Home Depot are running out of plywood and grocery stores shelves are running out of can goods. Let hunker down its gonna be a wild ride.
its good to be prepared..just in case
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41557
Quoting 378. CaribBoy:
I just can't believe what I'm seeing on the 12Z GFS! A succession of fishes! Where is the ridge lol... and why do they come off at 20N or close to that!
And you would believe it too don't be gullible and drawn into the GFS like a spell, it will likely change from run to run. Those storms, where are those storms now? They are all figments of imagination until there actually exists a low to track. I need to start taking my own advise. Take the long range with a grain of salt, if anything we have learned so far this season is that the ridging has been far underestimated in regards to Chantal and Dorian, until I see otherwise no reason to buy into that pattern change off of one run, like I said the 1016 mb. line is what you need to know and how far that extends. I thank moonlightcowboy for pointing that out to me.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8761
The Race Track, Fairgrounds have gone into Evac prep mode.
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Quoting 393. opal92nwf:

I know, I feel your pain.


Late august and september could be very dry because of that...
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OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-160315-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1110 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

SYNOPSIS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N88W. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20.5N91W
EARLY FRI MORNING AND NEAR 22.5N92.5W EARLY SAT MORNING. THEN...
THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
THROUGH MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41557
Appears south Louisiana is not taking 92L lightly, long lines at the gas station people filling up gas cans. Home Depot are running out of plywood and grocery stores shelves are running out of can goods. Let hunker down its gonna be a wild ride.
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Well dat was fast.. LOL

But now we still have 2 92L's. ACK !


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
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Quoting 376. Patrap:
Dunno wats up wit the Floater Guys, but they have had 92L in the East Pacific since 05L was declared yesterday

Might be intern week maybe?


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters


I think you are clicking the wrong 92L, Pat.

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Quoting 378. CaribBoy:
I just can't believe what I'm seeing on the 12Z GFS! A succession of fishes! Where is the ridge lol... and why do they come off at 20N or close to that!

I know, I feel your pain.
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Quoting 375. wunderweatherman123:
12z GFS shows a wave train


A fish train is more appropriate :/
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.