Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Look at that low in the Gulf


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There's definitely some westerly cloud movements at the lower levels over the Yucatan. 92L picked a bad time to try and form a surface circulation.
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Hispanola will not be able to stop all these waves.
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Everyone needs a good surface chart link, or 5..

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488. L1990
Quoting 459. WaterWitch11:
hello erin?
totally off tRopic but I know how much everyone loves the weather channel on here but every time I see Vivian Brown she looks amazing her makeup, hair, clothing simply beautiful. :)


lol i like vivian ... she speaks well
Member Since: July 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
Quoting 465. MAweatherboy1:
We should see some severe weather over the central and southern Plains today, looks like some supercells will fire up in a few hours and maybe merge into an MCS overnight. Very large hail will be the main threat but a couple tornadoes are possible/likely early on before any merging occurs.

Tornado probabilities:



Hail:


An early start to the fall pattern here in OK. :P
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Have to say this season has been a bust. Nothing but dry airand cool temps for summer.nothing can form the big question is can we go nine years without a major hurricane. Unbelievable!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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484. L1990
Quoting 405. FOREX:


Are you a troll?


where are you getting that information about south louisiana... i work offshore and some areas are already in phase one evacuation
Member Since: July 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
Quoting 474. washingtonian115:
Vivian Brown has always been fashionable and her make-up and hair on point.Jen Carfagno on the other hand looks like a 50 year old trying to be 20 again..
really? I think she is just as adorable. mama always says if you don't have sumpthin nice too say...
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Quoting 464. TimSoCal:
Going thru the full 384-hour GFS, I'm counting 4 tropical storms hitting the Cape Verde Islands. As in going through the islands, not passing to the north or south. At least it's consistent I guess.
Welcome to the peak of Atlantic hurricane season 2013. From now until the end of October expect to see something every week, now mind you not everything will develop, but it's that time of the year again. Hope all is well in Southern Cali.
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now its saying fish storm now!!
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Quoting 462. StormWx:
For 92L, you can see the 850MB elongated vorticity over the Yucatan now.



And then there is a mid level spin north of the Yucatan as you can see on the 500MB map.



Thank you! You can ALSO see TWO vorticities in front of Erin.
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Erin has a slim chance of a landfall here in south florida.
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Looking at this radar I guess you can see where the front is located. Looks like some on and off showers today and waiting to see what the next few days will bring us. 92L please go West.

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NAVGEM shows it too, but weaker and into the Caribbean, if we can get some more of the models to come on board we may get 94L out of the wave at 40 West and that could be your sleeper.

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Quoting 459. WaterWitch11:
hello erin?
totally off tRopic but I know how much everyone loves the weather channel on here but every time I see Vivian Brown she looks amazing her makeup, hair, clothing simply beautiful. :)
Vivian Brown has always been fashionable and her make-up and hair on point.Jen Carfagno on the other hand looks like a 50 year old trying to be 20 again..
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Quoting 422. yoboi:



I live in the sw part of la and I am not observing any such thing.....


To be fair, yoboi, the previous forecasts and models didn't really have it coming your way.
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Quoting 455. opal92nwf:
I've already stressed this before, but I think that a track like Eloise in 1975 is a real possibility this year.

Mostly because I have seen that there seems to be sort of less than favorable conditions in a lot of the Eastern Atlantic and even the Caribbean at times.

So we might expect to see a CONUS landfall via a disorganized tropical wave that scoots along west until it escapes away from the clutches of the death trap vacuum cleaner Atlantic, and once it reaches far enough west it will be in a more favorable place like the Gulf of Mexico where it could get picked up, ventilated by a trough, and strengthen to a significant hurricane by landfall.

This may be the only way it will happen this year.
Eloise was a vicious storm. There were reports of wind that would drop 45 mph, and then gust up to near 150, then drop back down to 45 mph, vacillating trees and structures to the point of ruin.

Hurricane Eloise
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Hurricane Eloise Category 3 hurricane (SSHS)
Hurricane Eloise in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Florida
Formed September 13, 1975
Dissipated September 24, 1975
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)
Lowest pressure 955 mbar (hPa); 28.2 inHg
Fatalities 80 direct
Damage $560 million (1975 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, Yucatán Peninsula, Florida, Eastern United States
Part of the 1975 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Eloise was the most destructive tropical cyclone of the 1975 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth tropical storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season, Eloise formed as a tropical depression on September 13 to the east of the Virgin Islands. The depression tracked westward and intensified into a tropical storm while passing to the north of Puerto Rico. Eloise briefly attained hurricane intensity soon thereafter, but weakened back to a tropical storm upon making landfall over Hispaniola. A weak and disorganized cyclone, Eloise emerged into open waters of the northern Caribbean Sea; upon striking the northern Yucatan Peninsula, it turned north and began to re-intensify. In the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone quickly matured and became a Category 3 hurricane on September 23. Eloise made landfall along the Florida Panhandle west of Panama City before moving inland across Alabama and dissipating on September 24.

The storm produced torrential rainfall throughout the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, causing extensive flooding that led to severe damage and more than 40 deaths. Thousands of people in these areas became homeless as flood waters submerged numerous communities. As Eloise progressed westward, it affected Cuba to a lesser extent. In advance of the storm, about 100,000 residents evacuated from the Gulf Coast region. Upon making landfall in Florida, Eloise generated wind gusts of 155 miles per hour (249 km/h), which demolished hundreds of buildings in the area. The storm's severe winds, waves, and storm surge left numerous beaches, piers, and other coastal structures heavily impaired..WIKI..
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Quoting 444. southernstorm:
I filled my gas tank yesterday, is that too soon for you? Put up a flag with a gas can on it so we know when its ok!

I understand Dakster. It seems like a little to early. That wouldn't be the case down here. People wait a little longer than a not named tropical storm to gas up and buy plywood that's all.
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I think Erin is at 45-50mph right now.
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Testing
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Quoting 460. midgulfmom:

Commenting on today? ...I noticed long gas lines for cars and cans yesterday in N.O. suburb. Once bitten twice shy I suppose....


Interesting. People are getting prepared early now... I am shocked/stunned/surprised. Happy about it -though.
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central GA rain continues





meanwhile here it is a cool 71F, and cloudy (and it was even cooler earlier. Officially Atlanta is 67F and around the area it is quite cool.

To top it off there is a brisk 17mph E wind, gusting to near 30 at times esp earlier this morning.

Feels like early fall, but it wont last
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We should see some severe weather over the central and southern Plains today, looks like some supercells will fire up in a few hours and maybe merge into an MCS overnight. Very large hail will be the main threat but a couple tornadoes are possible/likely early on before any merging occurs.

Tornado probabilities:



Hail:

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Going thru the full 384-hour GFS, I'm counting 4 tropical storms hitting the Cape Verde Islands. As in going through the islands, not passing to the north or south. At least it's consistent I guess.
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Quoting 420. Didereaux:
I love these moments. Go back to yesterdays posts concerning this system. 99%, and all but one computer stating that this low would definitely make landfall somewhere along the east half of the Gulfs norrthern coast. MAny commenters even being rude to the one or two who said that maybe Mexico, or the southern coast of Texass shouldnlt be ruled out.

So computer models, and commenters lacking reasoning skills take that!
;)


It is nice that you are not rude.
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Quoting 437. Grothar:


No offense to my west coast Florida neighbors, but I don't go over to the west coast in summer unless it is an emergency. And even then I weigh how much I like the person.
The west coast is fine if you're ON THE COAST but go 2-3 miles inland and on a day like today, you're lucky to get a five mph gust to cool you off ever so slightly.

That's why I am always looking forward to sea breeze storms in the hopes the temp drops below 80 lol
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Quoting 412. Dakster:


Wow. Already? Are you kidding me?

Commenting on today? ...I noticed long gas lines for cars and cans yesterday in N.O. suburb. Once bitten twice shy I suppose....
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hello erin?
totally off tRopic but I know how much everyone loves the weather channel on here but every time I see Vivian Brown she looks amazing her makeup, hair, clothing simply beautiful. :)
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92L reminds me of Andrea except in adrea the COC was north of the yucatan and with this it isnt
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Quoting 444. southernstorm:
I filled my gas tank yesterday, is that too soon for you? Put up a flag with a gas can on it so we know when its ok!


I prepare when the season starts. The long lines don't usually start until a day before - when the people who don't early prepare are in a panic.

I fill my tanks when they get 1/2 empty - regardless of whether there is a storm approaching or not...

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I've already stressed this before, but I think that a track like Eloise in 1975 is a real possibility this year.

Mostly because I have seen that there seems to be sort of less than favorable conditions in a lot of the Eastern Atlantic and even the Caribbean at times.

So we might expect to see a CONUS landfall via a disorganized tropical wave that scoots along west until it escapes away from the clutches of the death trap vacuum cleaner Atlantic, and once it reaches far enough west it will be in a more favorable place like the Gulf of Mexico where it could get picked up, ventilated by a trough, and strengthen to a significant hurricane by landfall.

This may be the only way it will happen this year.
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Quoting 418. Patrap:
Gulf of Mexico Imagery




Interesting visual sat loop there. I wonder if there will wind up being a split of the moisture after all, maybe another low with some of it going to FL while the core goes west or NW.
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Quoting 431. StormWx:


All you had to do was ask.
Oversleeping Side Effects


Sorry, I feel asleep reading that. It was too long.

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452. 7544
Quoting 448. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1016 mb. line extends into FL.



and that will steer the strom that form to the west right
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Quoting 412. Dakster:


Wow. Already? Are you kidding me?


Already? -- Hmm, well, it -- whatever it becomes -- could get close enough in 2 or 3 days that any preps might have to stop due to winds (if it got bad enough); so, yeah, I guess it could make sense to start this early in getting some geeral prepping done. If one waits to see, stores might be sold out of plywood & people get none at all.
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G' afternoon from a beautiful day here in central OK.

How's it going?

Have not taken the time to look at the blog, so it this has been already commented upon let me know, but wondering about 92L.

Could we be seeing what the models were having difficulty forecasting?

A mid-level low in the central-gulf helping to split the energy of the wave into two components? The northerly half of the wave tracking to the north, and the southern half going into the southeast gulf - eventually into Mexico/Texas.

So, could the northern and southern camps that have been railing against one another on the blog, both be correct? Steering currents seem to be split upon the wave axis.

Edit: corrected typos and put in the correct direction for the northern portion

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1016 mb. line extends into FL.

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Quoting 440. unknowncomic:
Only three CV lows in the Atlantic. what's wrong with that GEM.



the one to the north of the Antilles originated from the wave currently at 40w
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High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
FZNT02 KNHC 151540
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU AUG 15 2013
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 17.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 14.4N 26.5W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 15
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 15.7N 31.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 17.4N 35.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 18.0N 40.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 18.0N 44.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERIN NEAR 18.0N 49.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E WINDS 25 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND
81W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 20.5N91W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
22.5N92.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Quoting 403. CaribBoy:
NHC will shift ERIN's track significantly NW... I knew the northern models would win.
Dorin was a nightmare, and now Erin.
. How do you know what the NHC is going or not going to do ?
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Quoting 412. Dakster:


Wow. Already? Are you kidding me?
I filled my gas tank yesterday, is that too soon for you? Put up a flag with a gas can on it so we know when its ok!
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Quoting 438. wxchaser97:
My blog update on Erin and 92L, haven't done a blog in a little while.


You better make sure it agrees with our thinking, or we'll tear you apart.
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Quoting 434. java162:



cmc....hmmmmm
The CMC might be on to something look at the convection at 40 W associated with the monsoon trough.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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