Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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I am wondering if this thing will close off before moving inland.
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Quoting 526. Grothar:


Well, Medeira Beach is fine. :)


Thank you, Gro but it is Madeira Beach AKA Mad Beach, sorry couldn't resist correcting :))
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I wonder what would happen if we get a major hurricane to make landfall SOMEWHERE...
Hmm, that might take away the "bust" forecasts.
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Quoting 520. Grothar:


NO. :)

I was watching that low last night and the low to the east of Florida. It seems the ULL in the Gulf is grasping moisture from 92L and trying to wrap it around. Since we are not allowed to speculate anymore, I wonder what the experts think. That 50/50 split has been a possibility since the beginning.



Ya Gro, I speculated the NHC was still bullish on 92L and likely to still get pulled into the Central Gulf; because that's what NHC's 2AM said. Had it at 70% and they still predicted this disturbance to get pulled northward into Louisiana. This was in response to Sar saying none of that was going to happen. He had his usual response, "Well I could get hit by this meteor shower too." So speculating, even when your agreeing with the NHC is out too.
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The right side of this image is a close up of the low near 12 N and 43 W.

Good rotation is seen in loop imagery but the center is relatively devoid of any deep convection. That will need to fill in for this to have a chance of developing. It is still tied in to the ITCZ which is a good moisture feed and the area between 50 and 60 W is generally a favourable area for weak systems to flare up.

Let's see what happens over the course of the next 24 to 36 hrs.

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Lol.
Cmc puts a hurricane in bermuda...
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Quoting 221. scott39:
You have to love the bi-polar nature of this blog:)


I'm thinking more tri-polar...
It WILL
It WON'T
It MIGHT...
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wow! interesting.......
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Quoting 516. Articuno:


Must be troll season too.

Weatherman994 is correct. The TUTT and the dry air (SAL)that has been persistent over the MDR, GOMEX and Caribbean has proven to be too much for tropical systems to overcome this season. This setup is forecast to remain throughout the rest of the season. The season being a "bust" is a very good thing!
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Quoting 530. Drakoen:
Erin looks good at the moment but the environment ahead is quite dry.


"Sigh" September maybe?

I'm out now! I need to eat breakfast. lol
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Quoting 500. scottsvb:


This developing invest does have a chance to make it to the carribean. NavGem could be correct. CMC is once again to vigorous on developing it, thus pushing it too far north. Again it has a chance..about 30% in the next 2-3 days to develop
I'll give you that, have to see how it looks when it detaches itself from the monsoon trough.
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Erin looks good at the moment but the environment ahead is quite dry.

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Quoting 520. Grothar:


NO. :)

I was watching that low last night and the low to the east of Florida. It seems the ULL in the Gulf is grasping moisture from 92L and trying to wrap it around. Since we are not allowed to speculate anymore, I wonder what the experts think. That 50/50 split has been a possibility since the beginning.



LOL - thanks! Since when was speculating banned? :D
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Quoting 521. daddyjames:


WITS - I'm with you there. Saw that in the models too - where that low is supposed to continue to track to the southwest into the southern Gulf as the southern portion of the wave arrives there.


Looks like it,...so what's that going to do to it all?

I also see a persistent squable of T-storms puttering off the coast by Galveston & Houston's Bay area, associated with the frontal boundary. Not sure if it has any potential to form a Low there. Sometimes a frontal system like that can do so off the W GOM coast of TX.
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Quoting 519. icmoore:


I LOVE the west coast and have plenty of sea breeze and have no desire to live on the east coast, so there :) I live behind the Church By The Sea AKA The Chicken Church :) so I am about a block and a half from the Gulf in Madeira Beach. It is a piece of heaven here imo.


Well, Medeira Beach is fine. :)
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Quoting 498. daddyjames:


Yes. That was why i was wondering if energy from the wave could be split into two - the northern half tracking to the gulf coast, and the southern portion going into Mexico. Essentailly validating the 50/50 split observed in the models the past few days. Anyone care to comment?


It's a posibility and as you said the models have been picking up on this. But given the conditions predicted for the GOMEX, I would not expect anything stronger than a TD or weak TS. The Gulf Coast can expect what it has been experiencing for the past weeks. Not Needed Rain. On the other side, I would be very glad if Texas gets some well needed rain. I will be blunt and risk to eat the Crow. The season will be mostly caracterized by CV Systems and the GOMEX will remain as is perhaps even Experiencing an early Fall. Thos CV systems will have a slim chance to make it into the caribean sea and into the GOMEX as well. I guess we might see in about two to three weeks if this scenario is even plausible, but this is what i feel could happen based on what I have observed so far. I welcome an early fall anyway.
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Quoting 508. LAbonbon:


GOM offshore evacuations started Link


They have maids out there? Its not like the Navy.

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There seems to be some measure of circulation centered at about 87.5W, 20N in 92L.

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Quoting 506. Patrap:


Headline could read,
"BAMM, Storm Slaps Galveston"
if that model gets it right. Eh?
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Quoting 511. WalkingInTheSun:


It was tiny yesterday. I was watching it crop up & thinking it could be the reason some forecaster were talking of a split in 92L or maybe why it had been such a quandry as to whether she would go east or west. Seems to be growing and really tossing a wrench into the scenario, doesn't it?


WITS - I'm with you there. Saw that in the models too - where that low is supposed to continue to track to the southwest into the southern Gulf as the southern portion of the wave arrives there.
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Quoting 498. daddyjames:


Yes. That was why i was wondering if energy from the wave could be split into two - the northern half tracking to the gulf coast, and the southern portion going into Mexico. Essentailly validating the 50/50 split observed in the models the past few days. Anyone care to comment?


NO. :)

I was watching that low last night and the low to the east of Florida. It seems the ULL in the Gulf is grasping moisture from 92L and trying to wrap it around. Since we are not allowed to speculate anymore, I wonder what the experts think. That 50/50 split has been a possibility since the beginning.

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Quoting 499. palmbeachinlet:
Guys..if you don't like 95 degree days stay away from the west coast of Floria. When that Atlantic Sea Breeze kicks in on the east coast the temp is 89 when it's 95 on the west coast. The Gulf breeze is weak and too late...my opinion






I LOVE the west coast and have plenty of sea breeze and have no desire to live on the east coast, so there :) I live behind the Church By The Sea AKA The Chicken Church :) so I am about a block and a half from the Gulf in Madeira Beach. It is a piece of heaven here imo.
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Here is the low that follows Erin.

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Quoting 492. Grothar:
Look at that low in the Gulf


That low could pull a lot of moisture into Florida. Very interesting and complex weather situation setting up in the gulf.
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Quoting 493. weatherman994:
BUST SEASON


Must be troll season too.
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92L is currently being absorbed by the ULL in the central GOMEX and will now officially not develop into anything other than a rainstorm for northern Mexico or possibly extreme southern Texas. This will be very similar as to what happened with Dorian last month.
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Quoting 505. txjac:


I was watching that myself. I am no expert, just a guesser ...and I have to agree with you

Can't believe it's 79 degrees in Houston today! Loving the cooler weather


With the exception of a couple weeks (most of which i was not around for) summer has been fantastic this year in OK.

However, i do hope this pattern shifts before the heart of winter arrives, otherwise I might be freezing my tukas off! ;D
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Quoting 508. LAbonbon:


GOM offshore evacuations started Link


And up go the fuel prices.
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Quoting 478. 69Viking:
Looking at this radar I guess you can see where the front is located. Looks like some on and off showers today and waiting to see what the next few days will bring us. 92L please go West.


It's good for me because I don't have to go outside to water plants in my hot, mosquito infested backyard. All the potted plants outside (for some reason) start wilting if we go as little as one day without rain. And then things in the ground dry out so fast because of the sandhill I live on.
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Quoting 492. Grothar:
Look at that low in the Gulf




It was tiny yesterday. I was watching it crop up & thinking it could be the reason some forecaster were talking of a split in 92L or maybe why it had been such a quandry as to whether she would go east or west. Seems to be growing and really tossing a wrench into the scenario, doesn't it?
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Quoting 484. L1990:


where are you getting that information about south louisiana... i work offshore and some areas are already in phase one evacuation


GOM offshore evacuations started Link
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
EQUIPMENT ISSUE OF NOTE...THE NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON PHONE
RECORDINGS ARE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BECAUSE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE LAST NIGHT.
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505. txjac
Quoting 498. daddyjames:


Yes. Taht was why i was wondering if energy from the wave could be split into two - the northern half tracking to the gulf coast, and the southern portion going into Mexico. Essentailly validating the 50/50 split observed in the models the past few days. Anyone care to comment?


I was watching that myself. I am no expert, just a guesser ...and I have to agree with you

Can't believe it's 79 degrees in Houston today! Loving the cooler weather
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Quoting 492. Grothar:
Look at that low in the Gulf




Possible blobcon later in the forecast?
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How fast that Low center can close off will be interesting as to location.






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From this mornings TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N41W
TO 13N41W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S
OF 29N W OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 27N W OF 76W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA..AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE
FROM AFRICA NEAR 26N15W TO 19N32W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


Which will be responsible in lifting Erin more towards the north.
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Channel 13 in Houston has a nice hurricane page. They show 2 models taking the main storm to Galveston, 1 model going to near New Orleans, & the rest heading into Mexico.

On another site, forecasts definitely seem to have a tropical system trying to form over the WC GOM out of this. West & Central GOM states need to stay heads-up.
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Quoting 476. GTstormChaserCaleb:
NAVGEM shows it too, but weaker and into the Caribbean, if we can get some more of the models to come on board we may get 94L out of the wave at 40 West and that could be your sleeper.



This developing invest does have a chance to make it to the carribean. NavGem could be correct. CMC is once again to vigorous on developing it, thus pushing it too far north. Again it has a chance..about 30% in the next 2-3 days to develop
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Guys..if you don't like 95 degree days stay away from the west coast of Floria. When that Atlantic Sea Breeze kicks in on the east coast the temp is 89 when it's 95 on the west coast. The Gulf breeze is weak and too late...my opinion




Quoting 461. FLWeatherFreak91:
The west coast is fine if you're ON THE COAST but go 2-3 miles inland and on a day like today, you're lucky to get a five mph gust to cool you off ever so slightly.

That's why I am always looking forward to sea breeze storms in the hopes the temp drops below 80 lol
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Quoting 492. Grothar:
Look at that low in the Gulf




Yes. That was why i was wondering if energy from the wave could be split into two - the northern half tracking to the gulf coast, and the southern portion going into Mexico. Essentailly validating the 50/50 split observed in the models the past few days. Anyone care to comment?
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Quoting 471. hydrus:
Eloise was a vicious storm. There were reports of wind that would drop 45 mph, and then gust up to near 150, then drop back down to 45 mph, vacillating trees and structures to the point of ruin.

Hurricane Eloise
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Hurricane Eloise Category 3 hurricane (SSHS)
Hurricane Eloise in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Florida
Formed September 13, 1975
Dissipated September 24, 1975
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)
Lowest pressure 955 mbar (hPa); 28.2 inHg
Fatalities 80 direct
Damage $560 million (1975 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, Yucatán Peninsula, Florida, Eastern United States
Part of the 1975 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Eloise was the most destructive tropical cyclone of the 1975 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth tropical storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season, Eloise formed as a tropical depression on September 13 to the east of the Virgin Islands. The depression tracked westward and intensified into a tropical storm while passing to the north of Puerto Rico. Eloise briefly attained hurricane intensity soon thereafter, but weakened back to a tropical storm upon making landfall over Hispaniola. A weak and disorganized cyclone, Eloise emerged into open waters of the northern Caribbean Sea; upon striking the northern Yucatan.....

Wow! I never was able to find reports or pictures of the winds you were talking about. I always view hurricanes that are strengthening at landfall to be more vicious, like Hurricane Celia in 1970 which had unbelievable gusts as well and even mini-vortices.
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Quoting 469. HurricaneAndre:
I think Erin is at 45-50mph right now.

Agreed.
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Quoting 489. Patrap:
Everyone needs a good surface chart link, or 5..

So looking at this, 92L should head somewhere to the left of the 1016 line.
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I know Erin is the focus in the atlantic but the wave that came off before Erin is showing in the model runs to be a potential player down the road..

Navgem takes the southern route


CMC takes the northern route



the 00z Euro was showing it yesterday as a strong area of vorticity but ran it into the islands..
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BUST SEASON
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Look at that low in the Gulf


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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