Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Is the spin I am seeing just N of the Yucatan the ULL or is it the broad low associated with 92L ?
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Quoting 570. kmanislander:


The phrase I used last night if I remember correctly was "slow way down " LOL



Whaaaat doooooooes the yellllllllllow lighttttt meean?
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Quoting 586. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I guess they have not updated
here it is keeper.........
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
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ALL RECON Tasked for today is CANCELLED
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I see the coast
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Quoting 577. hydrus:
WRF model has all of Florida getting heavy rain..
yes indeed,fri-sat are going to be heavy rain days local mets are warning.
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Quoting 574. LargoFl:
keeper..NHC just said it moved inland this morning..




I guess they have not updated
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3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
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72 hours
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My unbeatable forecast

- At least one named storm will yet form, this season!

- There will soon be some contention on this blog as to where a storm forms.

- Someone will claim they previously forecasted it correctly.

- Someone in the path of a projected storm will inevitably forget to stock up on enough alcohol or toilet paper beforehand. >:O
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Friday POD

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 151507
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 15 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/1200-1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 16/1530Z C. 16/0930Z
D. 21.0N 91.5W D. 22.5N 92.5W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2200Z E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
AT 16/0100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 141729
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 15/1700Z A. 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 15/1430Z C. 15/1730Z
D. 19.0N 87.0W D. NA
E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 15/2100Z A. 16/0900Z
B. NOAA3 03BBA RADAR B. NOAA2 O405A CYCLONE
C. 15/1800Z C. 16/0600Z
D. 19.8N 87.8W D. 21.6N 89.1W
E. 15/2000Z TO 16/0030Z E. 16/0730Z TO 16/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 16/0930Z
D. 22.0N 89.5W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.
C. ANOTHER P-3 MISSION AT 16/1800Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Quoting 561. MississippiWx:
Gulf upper low has thrown a curveball in the forecast. I don't believe that it was forecast to be where it is now originally. This will keep 92L from developing much until it gets away from the Yucatan. After that, shear from the upper trough over the US will take over the supervising duties. 92L is just another in a long line of recent struggling Gulf systems.



It did pop up in the GFS models yesterday. I'm no good at finding and posting those things. Supposed to continue tracking SW into the southern portion of the gulf as the rest of the wave arrives.

@WITS - in regards to what this means - it depends. If the ULL goes south enough into the BOC a possiblity that the geography there does allow for a surface circulation to develop underneath, if the timing of the wave arrival is good. Norther portion may be the mid-to-upper level vorticity mentioned by some Mets yesterday in the LA area.
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Well, lunch is over. Back to work. See you later
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Well this is different

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 18 2013 - 12Z THU AUG 22 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
...

TO BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST
OF A FEW KEY FEATURES WHICH WILL BE PLAYERS IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EARLY
ON TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL ALONG AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
TROPICAL IN NATURE...IT WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL...MODELS VARY WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z CMC BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE SURFACE PRESSURES AND TRACKING THE
DISTURBANCE UP THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. MEANWHILE...BEYOND EARLY
MONDAY...THE 00Z UKMET IS A MINORITY SOLUTION IN TAKING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TX. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
TO ALLOW THE SHEARING ENERGY TO MERGE/BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MEAN
UPPER TROF SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
LATTER FEATURE IS GENERALLY WELL RESOLVED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST.

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WRF model has all of Florida getting heavy rain..
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Quoting 565. VR46L:
Looks to me like Dry air is giving 92L a hard time at midlevels ...



land interaction impeding or hampering development
and a few other things still has one more chance just not right now
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48 hours-12z Euro
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Quoting 567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its holding its own
be overland soon

keeper..NHC just said it moved inland this morning..
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Quoting 557. LargoFl:
92 is exploding like yesterday.............


ULL enhancing convection... like yesterday, 92L was unable to sustain its own convection after the old TUTT pulled away.
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Think of 92L as a ballerina. A short fat one with chubby little arms filled with 10% too much water.
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FIM-7 is back on board with development of 92L. :)...Don't fail me now you have come along way get this right and there is a reward waiting for you. ;)

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 563. GetReal:


If is indeed moving right now it is crawling along...


The phrase I used last night if I remember correctly was "slow way down " LOL
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Quoting 543. flcanes:

Wouldnt it be wierd if this split in the gulf, and both sides developed into an andrea and barry type system respectively?


That would be lots of fun, looking like a good bet this spins up when it gets to the southern Gulf and then heads to Texas or Louisiana; although Panhandle not out of the question either. Jeff's wording certainly shows he's thinking a great chance at TD then to TS when 92L reaches the Gulf. Lot going on with 92L, lots of possibilities still. NHC, for days has been steadfast on whatever forms getting pulled at least to Louisiana. 92L's competing circulations no longer an issue? Finally a winner?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
NHC says not mexico..the central gulf after crossing.........
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 557. LargoFl:
92 is exploding like yesterday.............


its holding its own
be overland soon

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Quoting 561. MississippiWx:
Gulf upper low has thrown a curveball in the forecast. I don't believe that it was forecast to be where it is now originally. This will keep 92L from developing much until it gets away from the Yucatan. After that, shear from the upper trough over the US will take over the supervising duties. 92L is just another in a long line of recent struggling Gulf systems.



When mother nature changes her mind the models go out the window. That is why trying to see any farther than a couple of days down the road in the tropics can be an exercise in futility.
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565. VR46L
Looks to me like Dry air is giving 92L a hard time at midlevels ...

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Quoting 301. SouthernIllinois:


Put this in front of the color you want and then this
Should work FMG!! :)
Quoting 520. Grothar:


NO. :)

I was watching that low last night and the low to the east of Florida. It seems the ULL in the Gulf is grasping moisture from 92L and trying to wrap it around. Since we are not allowed to speculate anymore, I wonder what the experts think. That 50/50 split has been a possibility since the beginning.


Sometimes scientists speculate basing the speculation on knowledge, facts (data) and occasionally bias. They then need to observe or test.
But the god of weather surely must be allowed a little latitude!!
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Quoting 556. kmanislander:


The steering is weak. I mentioned last night that 92L could stall or slow down. I do not think it has stalled but certainly moving slowly.


If is indeed moving right now it is crawling along...
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I dont care if this develops, as long as all of that rain is shipped to texas..
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Gulf upper low has thrown a curveball in the forecast. I don't believe that it was forecast to be where it is now originally. This will keep 92L from developing much until it gets away from the Yucatan. After that, shear from the upper trough over the US will take over the supervising duties. 92L is just another in a long line of recent struggling Gulf systems.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting 542. hydrus:

I am wondering if this thing will close off before moving inland.

No it will not.
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Quoting 525. CaneHunter031472:


It's a posibility and as you said the models have been picking up on this. But given the conditions predicted for the GOMEX, I would not expect anything stronger than a TD or weak TS. The Gulf Coast can expect what it has been experiencing for the past weeks. Not Needed Rain. On the other side, I would be very glad if Texas gets some well needed rain. I will be blunt and risk to eat the Crow. The season will be mostly caracterized by CV Systems and the GOMEX will remain as is perhaps even Experiencing an early Fall. Thos CV systems will have a slim chance to make it into the caribean sea and into the GOMEX as well. I guess we might see in about two to three weeks if this scenario is even plausible, but this is what i feel could happen based on what I have observed so far. I welcome an early fall anyway.


I agree, I don't see much of a surface circulation developing in the northern Gulf, only mid-to-upper level that drag the mentioned not needed moisture into the SE US.
As far as rain for Texas, lets see if the southern portion makes it that far north.
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Quoting 542. hydrus:

I am wondering if this thing will close off before moving inland.


There's definitely something going on right now. I said there might be something at 87.5W, 20N, but looking at it again, I think the circulation is much broader and a bit further south, maybe 19.5N. Perhaps a bit elongated as well.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 160
92 is exploding like yesterday.............
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Quoting 549. GetReal:


Is it just me and my untrained eye, but it sure does appear that the 92L mess, along with the ULL to the north of it have not moved at all since dawn. It seems like the entire pattern has stalled for now. JMO


The steering is weak. I mentioned last night that 92L could stall or slow down. I do not think it has stalled but certainly moving slowly.
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Most of the GFS ensemble members continues to show a very active wave train,probably we could see 2-4 more named storm for the remainder of August..
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Quoting 492. Grothar:
Look at that low in the Gulf




About that ULL in the GOM,...
what are the chances it might simply strnegthen, steal all GOM moisture around it & then simply turn into a rain-maker system? - Not necessarily a tropical cyclone but a rain-maker for wherever it heads off to. Is it a possibility?
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Quoting 529. Patrap:


Whoa lots of convection looks to be merging around 87W 17N... or at least that's what it looks like. But the remaining convection seems to be chasing the circulation now north of the Yucatan... I guess it is splitting.
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Quoting 540. flcanes:
I wonder what would happen if we get a major hurricane to make landfall SOMEWHERE...
Hmm, that might take away the "bust" forecasts.

Knowing this blog, we'd need multiple landfalling hurricanes/majors to have it where the season isn't a "bust". That along with a Cat-5 or two in the open Atlantic. :)
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Quoting 536. flcanes:
Lol.
Cmc puts a hurricane in bermuda...
CMC likely being too over aggressive with development the disturbance still has a ways to go. The islands may need to keep an eye on it in a few days.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686


Is it just me and my untrained eye, but it sure does appear that the 92L mess, along with the ULL to the north of it have not moved at all since dawn. It seems like the entire pattern has stalled for now. JMO
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Quoting 544. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Might be hard to see here, but there is a spin at about 42-43 West and 11-12 North, that is the disturbance embedded in the monsoon trough that the CMC and NAVGEM are picking up on.


I believe the CMC decided to develop it into a hurricane and smash it into bermuda....
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Quoting 542. hydrus:

I am wondering if this thing will close off before moving inland.

I doubt. I say this closes of in the gulf.
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Quoting 532. opal92nwf:

"Sigh" September maybe?

I'm out now! I need to eat breakfast. lol

Oh, and this:

For the FL Panhandle Area:
Short term [friday through saturday]...
several factors may come together to allow for heavy rain and
possibly some flooding through the short term. The 15/00z NAM,
GFS, and European model (ecmwf) place the area in the right entrance region of a
70-90 knot 250 mb jet stretching as far south as central Alabama
by Saturday, which seems unusual for August. This should allow for
plenty of synoptic scale lift, especially for Summer. The moisture
environment is tropical with precipitable water values forecast
to be solidly over 2" on both the GFS and NAM, especially the GFS
which has widespread values over 2.25" on Saturday. There is also
a stalled frontal boundary across central Georgia and even a bit
of cold air damming (also unusual for august) evident in the
isobars and surface dewpoints across north Georgia to reinforce
the frontal boundary. The area of low pressure in the northwest
Caribbean will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico during the short
term and also bears close watching for possible tropical
development, but regardless of whether or not it develops
significantly, several models show a feed a tropical moisture
streaming northeastward from that feature into the local area.


Combine all of these factors together, and it seems probable that
someone is going to get a lot of rain out of this scenario if the
basic large scale ingredients listed above come together as
several models are indicating. Given some of the unusual factors
listed above, we need to watch for the potential for some isolated
pockets of very heavy rainfall amounts, although confidence is low
on exactly where that would occur. Suspect areas for the heaviest
rainfall amounts from the large scale perspective include our
northern counties of southwest Georgia closest to the stalled
frontal boundary, and wherever the moisture feed from the tropics
sets up and allows for the possibility of training convection.
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Storms and moisture laden clouds moving north here on the west coast..
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Might be hard to see here, but there is a spin at about 42-43 West and 11-12 North, that is the disturbance embedded in the monsoon trough that the CMC and NAVGEM are picking up on.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 539. Tribucanes:


Ya Gro, I speculated the NHC was still bullish on 92L and likely to still get pulled into the Central Gulf; because that's what NHC's 2AM said. Had it at 70% and they still predicted this disturbance to get pulled northward into Louisiana. This was in response to Sar saying none of that was going to happen. He had his usual response, "Well I could get hit by this meteor shower too." So speculating, even when your agreeing with the NHC is out too.

Wouldnt it be wierd if this split in the gulf, and both sides developed into an andrea and barry type system respectively?
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I am wondering if this thing will close off before moving inland.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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