Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Share this Blog
73
+

The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2392 - 2342

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Looking at Erin on Atlantic satellite zoomed in I can see Erin appears to be now moving W I can not confirm this yet as the new image on floater does not come in for another 3 hrs or less
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2366. Grothar:


You were just under the 30% that didn't get any.


I think it's the owner of the Old Key Lime House who runs the forcefield. The place is a money-making machine! Rain is the only inhibitor to maximum profits, so...

BTW, I'm trying to talk him into installing a PWS at the establishment. It's a perfect location right on the Intracoastal, and there's no other stations that close to the coast in this area. I haven't noticed any PWS's installed at businesses. There's not a rule against that, is there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2390. scott39
Quoting 2383. Tazmanian:




Hmmm how did NYC get in there loops I ment too say nhc
I know, I was just messing with you:)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
Quoting 2369. RitaEvac:
92L: SSW of NOLA.


And we are sending it your way buddy! LOL Good morning all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What would the effects be on the Galveston coast area if 92L makes a Mexico/Texas border area crossing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2387. Skyepony (Mod)
92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Received email from a local met that sends out emails regularly, mentioned...

"I would advise residents along the TX coast to remain alert to developments over the weekend since the threat has generally increased to the western and NW Gulf."

"Would not at all be surprised to see a tropical storm form at some point"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Active wave reaching SA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back in a while
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2378. scott39:
New York City is always awake Taz :)




Hmmm how did NYC get in there oops I ment too say nhc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2382. VR46L
Quoting 2377. Rmadillo:


The NAM isn't all bad. It has more value than urban legend here would allow.


Yeah I know ! Neither is the Euro which didn't see much with either Erin or 92L ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


@kgmarshall
Pretty morning in New Orleans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2380. mrmombq
Quoting 2340. RitaEvac:
So when does hurricane season start?
Right now its swirl and blob season ,once the fat lady emerges from Africa and starts singing it will be Hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Definitely a sleeper.



It started to take shape last night and continues to do so today. Very low shear all the way to the Caribbean as well. Could become a problem if this rate of organization continues as banding is starting to show as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2378. scott39
Quoting 2375. Tazmanian:



That looks more like a TD or low end TS right now the NYC needs too wake up
New York City is always awake Taz :)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
Quoting 2371. VR46L:


NAM still does send it into NOLA as a marginal storm !


The NAM isn't all bad. It has more value than urban legend here would allow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2376. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Definitely a sleeper.




That looks more like a TD or low end TS right now the NYC needs too wake up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is obvious to me that the untagged disturbance is of more interest ATM than either Erin or Not Fernand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2358. RitaEvac:
Finally a LLC, but......stick a fork in it



Rita, that (LLC) is no longer the tropically-correct acronym to describe 92L. We now use LLNS, or Low Level Naked Swirl. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2372. SLU
Quoting 2355. Tazmanian:
16/1145 UTC 16.7N 31.4W T1.0/1.5 ERIN


I see Erin being downgraded too a TD or open wave at some point today


Well not an open wave because it still has a closed low. Maybe a TD or a remnant low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2371. VR46L
Quoting 2351. RitaEvac:
This blog was in a frenzy that a formidable storm was about to commence, and.......NUTTIN.....

Models pointed to FL panhandle and NOLA, now all in.....Mehicooooo...


NAM still does send it into NOLA as a marginal storm !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Banding features are starting to show up on the NE and SE side of this feature at 45 West. I expect it will be circled fairly soon today,possibly at 20%.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L: SSW of NOLA.

A hunting, prowling move eying someone on the coast to the north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2368. VR46L
LSU Water Vapour Gulf Image

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely a sleeper.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7557
2366. Grothar
Quoting 2359. mikatnight:
I'm going rogue today...

Good Morning Yesterday!
6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Forgot I'd taken this. Call it a bonus shot. Note the other span of the (new) bridge is up. They paved on Monday; things seem to be moving right along for a hopeful November opening.

Good Morning Today!
7:25 am (11:25 GMT)

Coast is clear...so far.

Jellyfish!

This Friday fish doesn't tickle the taste buds as much as the gag reflex. Hundreds of them beached on the shore of the Intracoastal Waterway this morning.

Despite the 70% chance of rain yesterday, we picked up zero precipitation.


You were just under the 30% that didn't get any.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
2365. scott39
Tracking TCs with chronic unfavorable enviromental issues in the Atlantic has become the norm. There have been some exceptions in the last 5 seasons, but not many. My diagnosis is the Atlantic has an autoimmune disease of its enviroment.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
For the time being, it seems like 92L is in its own little pocket of 20 knot shear. Once it leaves (which should be fairly soon - it's not a big pocket), we may see it start to use that GOM to make some noise. One inhibitor though could be dry air to its SW. That may be offset by the moisture everywhere else around it, though. It's also not anywhere near as dry as the CATL, so it's not like it's a complete choke zone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CPAC will have Tropical Storm Pewa.

CP, 01, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1730W, 35, 1005, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14055
2362. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Morning all. We got about a tenth of an inch of rain last night NE of Austin. Enough to slicken the roads and cause a couple of wrecks and a small grass fire caused by lightning hitting a utility line. Other than that its Friday. Hope everyones' is groovy.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
2360. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
I'm going rogue today...

Good Morning Yesterday!
6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Forgot I'd taken this. Call it a bonus shot. Note the other span of the (new) bridge is up. They paved on Monday; things seem to be moving right along for a hopeful November opening.

Good Morning Today!
7:25 am (11:25 GMT)

Coast is clear...so far.

Jellyfish!

This Friday fish doesn't tickle the taste buds as much as the gag reflex. Hundreds of them beached on the shore of the Intracoastal Waterway this morning.

Despite the 70% chance of rain yesterday, we picked up zero precipitation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally a LLC, but......stick a fork in it

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2297. wunderkidcayman:
Saidly
the pouches won't be tracked today

No pouches will be tracked on Friday 16 August. The federal budget sequestration is being applied at the Naval Postgraduate School as furloughs every Friday. Employees are forbidden to work, under threat of termination. Good news: 16 August is the last Furlough Friday of FY2013.


See. I knew it was budget cuts! LOL! Actually, not funny. That also means no pay for those guys. If it's like most post-graduate fellowships, they don't get paid a whole lot anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
perhaps we'll get 94L between 50w and 52w soon ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
16/1145 UTC 16.7N 31.4W T1.0/1.5 ERIN


I see Erin being downgraded too a TD or open wave at some point today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2354. scott39
The lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic, has kept stronger TCs at bay since 2008.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
Quoting 2341. Grothar:


Actually both at the moment.
Quoting 2341. Grothar:


Actually both at the moment.
True,thanks Gro.
Quoting 2344. VR46L:


but she is going into drier air soon ... will prolly finish her off ...

When I read finish her it reminds me of Mortal Kombat XD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2352. pcola57
Good Morning 92L..



Not so very dry right now anyway..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This blog was in a frenzy that a formidable storm was about to commence, and.......NUTTIN.....

Models pointed to FL panhandle and NOLA, now all in.....Mehicooooo...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears that 92L is getting his act together, we have started boarding up and getting our MRE out because the next few days we will lose power and storm surge is our real worry down here is south Louisiana. I just purchased the last 10 gallons from out local gas station, it is time to hunker down for the nasty stuff is on the way. Our local airport has rumor that Joe storm magnet is heading our way on will be on the ground in the next few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2154. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well now that is different and wayyy west this run, the disturbance behind Erin.



XD XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2344. VR46L:


but she is going into drier air soon ... will prolly finish her off ...



She won't be surviving that track that's one thing for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2347. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L – SW Gulf of Mexico – Medium Chance (50%)
Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized in association with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development if the low moves toward the west or west-northwest over the next couple of days. If the low takes a more northward track it would move into a less conducive environment for development. This system has a Medium Chance (50%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
The reconnaissance mission scheduled for today has been cancelled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2345. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2344. VR46L
Quoting 2333. allancalderini:
Stable air is killing her not dry air.


but she is going into drier air soon ... will prolly finish her off ...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2321. Envoirment:
Erin was in a high mid-shear environment.



She should look better once she moves into lower shear.

Quoting 2329. VR46L:


and into drier air ....:)





Quoting 2330. allancalderini:
Stable air will kill her before she finds conductive conditions.


Yep dry air plus if she continues WNW-NW then she will find her self in high upper level shear as shown on the shear map even though lower shear in mid levels if Erin continues WNW-NW she is a sitting duck on a mass hunting ground
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2392 - 2342

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.