Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1233 PM CDT Thursday Aug 15 2013

Long term...

upper pattern begins to become cut-off and retains the troughing
pattern over the Gulf states that will erode as low fills in time.
The associated upper level streamline forecasts indicate the col
region to remain in the central Gulf and eventually drift
westward. This is key in that any tropical developments and
ultimate movement from the western Caribbean Sea will be dictated
by the orientation of such col. The longer the troughing remains
in place...keeping the col over the Gulf...the more likely a
western movement will result on invest 92l. If the col gets too
far west however while the trough lifts...then a more
northwestward movement would result. The increasing spread of the
model guidance is an indication of how the models are depicting
the kinematic parameters. For local forecast considerations...will
maintain lower rain chances that trend to more normal rain chances
towards the latter part of the forecast period. Will have to
maintain a wait-and-see posture for another day on any tropical
developments. 24/rr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 621. weathermanwannabe:


When I was a teenager in the late-1970's, there was a very nice troll (ex-Vietnam veteran) who lived under the Islamorada Bridge in the Florida Keys for about a two year stretch. I was down there fishing frequently and we often shared regular food with him (and he did well catching fish; he was a good cook on his little Coleman stove) Real cool dude; nothing like the nasty ones you find on the internet these days


Society makes it tough for real trolls during bad storm weather. It helps make trolls of the old sort sometimes. Cities make rules against camping in city limits, panhandling, almost anything they can to force the very poor to either leave or gather into over-crowded shelters in the bad parts of city metro areas where they won't likely find work, won't get help in ways they need (often), might get mugged or beaten up, etc. Then, those who dislike such things must move out to somehow survive somewhere - maybe under a bridge in S FL. Of course, in zones of high-"troll" activity, however, people get weary of bad trolls, & grow hostile, making them outcasts to elsewhere, too.

So, they must survive the weather of storms like what crops up in the GOM without much care until it is almost too late. There needs to be a national effort to help rather than destroy America's "troll" problem - an avalon of sorts
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N87W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF QUINTANA ROO MEXICO NEAR 19N88W. THE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20.5N91W EARLY FRI MORNING AND NEAR 22.5N92.5W EARLY SAT MORNING.
THEN...THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THROUGH MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...AND ULTIMATE IMPACTS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL WINDS HAVE CAPPED AT
25-30 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 11 FT-12 FT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW/TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Quoting 636. Patrap:
One has to stop, before turning right on red..


Now I see the problem :P
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
One has to stop, before turning right on red..
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Quoting 631. Walshy:
im done with 92l i dont care anymore


Yeah I feel you I am so sick of these little storms that create all this hype and then do nothing. I have to give these weather briefings to my boss(non-meteorologist) and he goes all crazy about the impacts of this system and then it dies. It is really getting old...but at least the season is still technically active.
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Quoting 630. Patrap:


Yup, daughter got booted last week here.

Right turn on red ticket.


Why wasn't that allowed? Was it posted as such?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
18z Best Track for Erin.

AL, 05, 2013081518, , BEST, 0, 146N, 270W, 35, 1006, TS
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Quoting 626. ncstorm:
144 hours


Has the Euro developed anything all season LOL? It is almost like it is just going through the motions...completely useless
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im done with 92l i dont care anymore
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Quoting 627. LAbonbon:


Maybe in the pre-red light camera days...


Yup, got booted last week here.

Right turn on red ticket.
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On post #553 you can see an unusually clear look as 92L spits out a tiny, low-level circulation just above the top of the Yucatan.
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Quoting 591. Grothar:



Whaaaat doooooooes the yellllllllllow lighttttt meean?

It means hit the gas, right???
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Quoting 594. Patrap:
Red means stop

Green means go

Yellow means "Go Faster" ?





Maybe in the pre-red light camera days...
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
144 hours
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Quoting 617. AtHomeInTX:


Drags the bottom blob thru here via Louisiana. Hope it drags the rain with it. Sorry broken record here. :)


no way..you keep rooting for that rain..you guys need it..
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Quoting 611. hurricanehanna:

They hang out here Cybr because they are well fed


if we could just learn
not to reply to em
in any way shape or form
they will tried and rtn
to there desolate lonely place
which hence they made for themselves
in the first place
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Not a 92L comment, but still about weather.- I heard something on radio yesterday about the idea of putting sulfuric acid particles into the atmosphere to cool things down to prevent global warming. They saw it happen a little in a volcanic eruption so figure it could be done artificially, too.

Well, I am used to hot summers -- all my life.THIS summer is the first time it has seemed like so many frontal boundaries have made it down this far south in the middle of the hottest time of year. If they screw with the weather artificially like they talked about on that radio show, what then if we get cold weather in summer? Won't that mess things up, too?

Also, who gives a small number of self-appointed "saviors" & "guardians of the universe" the power & right to tinker with the global atmosphere that affects everyone? If they goof, will they pay for all the crop losses & other repercussions? Does the common citizen on earth get no say in it all? I think some are too egotistical & suppose they know it all & should run things for all mankind, including in tinkering with global weather when they don't really known what harm they may do.

When do we get to vote on it before these elitists irreparably harm our planet? People only want democracy & a voice for the people when it suits them, it seems.

(I'm finished ranting now.)
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Quoting 606. Patrap:
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.

Today's flights to 92L are Cancelled


Yep. Hard to drop those dropsondes over land. Might hit someone on the ole noggin' while they are vacationing it in Cancun. :-)
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Do trolls even live under bridges anymore? Or have they all relocated to the Internet?


When I was a teenager in the late-1970's, there was a very nice troll (ex-Vietnam veteran) who lived under the Islamorada Bridge in the Florida Keys for about a two year stretch. I was down there fishing frequently and we often shared regular food with him (and he did well catching fish; he was a good cook on his little Coleman stove) Real cool dude; nothing like the nasty ones you find on the internet these days
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Do trolls even live under bridges anymore? Or have they all relocated to the Internet?


I don't know, but my ignore button has had a nice workout recently. ;-)
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Quoting 595. ncstorm:
96 hours

That scenario would be good for LA - bringing in more rain to where it is needed.
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anyone remember this guy?
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Quoting 609. ncstorm:
120 hours


Drags the bottom blob thru here via Louisiana. Hope it drags the rain with it. Sorry broken record here. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Do trolls even live under bridges anymore? Or have they all relocated to the Internet?

This is probably the only troll that lives under a bridge anymore. The rest have moved to places like WU.

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Interesting the FIM-7 tracks the disturbance at 40 West through the Greater Antilles and into the straits of FL. eventually getting into the GOM where it tries to spin up something, just something for the fantasy lovers.

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
Actually my reference was to Grothar the god of weather.
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Quoting 608. LargoFl:
most of you are better at this than I am...there is Nothing at all out there that can make 92L..make that right hand turn once its IN the central gulf like the NHC said it would be in a few days...no chance at all..of making that turn and coming into florida right?


Western Florida Panhandle is about as far east as this will go.
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Quoting 609. ncstorm:
120 hours


Well that is quite interesting!
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Do trolls even live under bridges anymore? Or have they all relocated to the Internet?

They hang out here Cybr because they are well fed
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Quoting 578. AtHomeInTX:
Well this is different

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 18 2013 - 12Z THU AUG 22 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
...

TO BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST
OF A FEW KEY FEATURES WHICH WILL BE PLAYERS IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EARLY
ON TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL ALONG AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
TROPICAL IN NATURE...IT WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL...MODELS VARY WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z CMC BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE SURFACE PRESSURES AND TRACKING THE
DISTURBANCE UP THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. MEANWHILE...BEYOND EARLY
MONDAY...THE 00Z UKMET IS A MINORITY SOLUTION IN TAKING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TX. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
TO ALLOW THE SHEARING ENERGY TO MERGE/BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MEAN
UPPER TROF SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
LATTER FEATURE IS GENERALLY WELL RESOLVED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST.

. I have said this all along , this is where 92L, or Fernand , or just a big blob of rain was going to go !
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120 hours
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most of you are better at this than I am...there is Nothing at all out there that can make 92L..make that right hand turn once its IN the central gulf like the NHC said it would be in a few days...no chance at all..of making that turn and coming into florida right?
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Do trolls even live under bridges anymore? Or have they all relocated to the Internet?
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3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.

Today's flights to 92L are Cancelled
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Quoting 593. calkevin77:


Some very slight improvement in the SW corner of Kansas from last week but otherwise identical week over week for most of the CONUS.


Got worse here and Louisiana it looks like. :( Bring on the rain!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Notwithstanding the "no go" on 92L for the time being, and some difficulties ahead in the short term to Erin, it is only August 15th with several more critical weeks to the season coming up; it is far from over.

Regardless of how many or how little storms we end up getting this year, the primary threat is a major hurricane strike on a populated area. So far so good if that is the criteria that is most important to you. We had a slew of struggling topical storms last year and the numbers of projected majors did not materialize. I will not be complaining if something like that happened again this year; it would be an interesting, but positive, anomaly in the big scheme of things.
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 15 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/1200-1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 16/1530Z C. 16/0930Z
D. 21.0N 91.5W D. 22.5N 92.5W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2200Z E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
AT 16/0100Z.
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Quoting 594. Patrap:
Red means stop

Green means go

Yellow means "Go Faster" ?




that's how I roll lol
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Quoting 592. hurricanehanna:
Is the spin I am seeing just N of the Yucatan the ULL or is it the broad low associated with 92L ?


The ULL.
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Quoting 564. StAugSurf:


Maybe God IS doing something with the weather. Perhaps someone somewhere is praying about the storm, as this ULL sure is suddenly doing some odd influence on it.
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Quoting 580. daddyjames:


It did pop up in the GFS models yesterday. I'm no good at finding and posting those things. Supposed to continue tracking SW into the southern portion of the gulf as the rest of the wave arrives.

@WITS - in regards to what this means - it depends. If the ULL goes south enough into the BOC a possiblity that the geography there does allow for a surface circulation to develop underneath, if the timing of the wave arrival is good. Norther portion may be the mid-to-upper level vorticity mentioned by some Mets yesterday in the LA area.


GFS keeps the upper low moving south. Should be over the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours, if the model is correct. Won't be any development from the upper low. 92L's surface low is currently over the peninsula and should keep sliding NW. It's possible a weak TS could form once it emerges over the Southern Gulf in between shearing systems to the north and south.
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Quoting 590. LargoFl:
here it is keeper.........
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
I see it but I normally go by surface maps and sat presentation
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Visible satellite still showing circulation on the west side of 92L, moving WNW-NW at a crawl. The organization of the East side is unknown. Current path looks like it would probably keep it out of most of the BOC.
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96 hours
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Red means stop

Green means go

Yellow means "Go Faster" ?



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Some very slight improvement in the SW corner of Kansas from last week but otherwise identical week over week for most of the CONUS.
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Is the spin I am seeing just N of the Yucatan the ULL or is it the broad low associated with 92L ?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.