Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 668. Gearsts:
Will bring alot of rain.


From this afternoon San Juan AFD.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST STARTING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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"Meh-rin"

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Quoting 667. RitaEvac:


Thing going to MX, don't count on anything for us, if it does.....than this was a blown call by all models and forecasters.


At least one TV website near the GOM still shows about half the models showing NC GOM landfalls, ranging from about Houston to LA to MS, with the rest heading to Mexico -- about 50/50 both ways.
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SAB T2.0/TAFB 2.5

AL, 05, 201308151745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1460N, 2720W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T,

AL, 05, 201308151745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1490N, 2670W, , 2, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, AS, VIM, 3, 2020 /////, , , MET10, LLCC, T, COR DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO MET
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Central Gulf? Doesn't the NHC watch Levi's vlog?
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Well, just got a 90% on a credit exam for biology. I told the administrator I studied for the course above that one, lol. She said I could test for that one too, which I may end up doing after all.

So far I passed 12 credits worth of exams in the past 3 days, 6 of them without studying at all. I was told it's actually possible to get as much as 3/4ths of a degree without actually taking a course, so I might just do that.

If you can teach yourself and then pass a departmental credit exam, it's about 10 to 20 times cheaper than actually paying to take a course. I only paid $25 for that credit exam, and a total of $105 for each of the other ones, so that's $340 for 12 credit hours. That's the cheapest university credits ever.
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The sudden increase in intensity is probably in response to a shift westwards into the western GOMEX by the 18z models.
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Quoting 650. prcane4you:
Red snapper for me.
Florida Grouper parmesean -- mix sour cream, grated onion, sea salt, white pepper, and parmesean. Smear mix over grouper and sprinkle with a little cayenne or paprika. Bake until done. Yum. Yum.
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Quoting 653. 2xRitaEvacuee:


Not necessarily true...I live in New Orleans and I'm stocking up on booze.

Wait...that's just another day in New Orleans ;)


Of all the names you could have taken...
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Quoting 664. hurricanehanna:

the GOM is starting to resemble a giant swirlie...


I see that
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Quoting 674. ncstorm:




yep that move into the central gulf is what the NHC is saying
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For the time being, that huge upper level Tutt cell stretching from the Yucatan Peninsula up into the Gulf (see below) will keep 92L in check for a few days:

Link

It has/will continue to enhance the convection but TD formation is not on the horizon at the moment.
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Just saw the TWO for 92L and I respectfully disagree with Avila saying this will be in the Central Gulf. More like in the Southwestern gulf where shear is way less than the central gulf. Only time will tell for the guys at the nhc.
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676. Relix
Wave at 40W should get a honorary 10% :P! Erin looks boring to me; at the pace its going it will be north of the islands easily. I don't get CaribBoy... here in PR its been a rainy summer; nonstop. I don't want more rain! Yet there's a t-wave coming up and the one at 40W which seems pretty darned strong.
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Had another window on a diff. site showing wind radius on 92L. Over time, they updated it -- seems the wind radius significantly enlarged about the time it headed ashore.

Also, the ULL in the C GOM looks like it is drifting a bit to the North. Both events might leave it more likely to make an opening for a cleaner breakout of 92L across the Yucatan & into the GOM for a chance to build there.
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Nice spin at the 40w line wit the itcz
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672. VR46L
Quoting 665. CaribBoy:


Just watch the 18Z models.. they all scream fish. That's boring, I hope the 40W disturbance will do something


I hope you get some ! I remember how frustrated you get with no rain!
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Quoting 653. 2xRitaEvacuee:


Not necessarily true...I live in New Orleans and I'm stocking up on booze.

Wait...that's just another day in New Orleans ;)


Wow, I have a cousin on the blog
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Quoting 654. HurrMichaelOrl:


Got one about 3 months ago for right turn on red, like $150.00.
few months ago, my city installed these tiny no turn on red signs..i went up to this corner..stopped..didn't know the sign was there..it was new..made my turn..and $166.oo later I now know the sign is overhead across the intersection
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669. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 665. CaribBoy:


Just watch the 18Z models.. they all scream fish. That's boring, I hope the 40W disturbance will do something


That's only one model run .. let wait and see ..
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Quoting 665. CaribBoy:


Just watch the 18Z models.. they all scream fish. That's boring, I hope the 40W disturbance will do something
Will bring alot of rain.
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Quoting 649. DavidHOUTX:
Looking more like Mexico or Texas now.. Still way to early to tell where it is going though, that is if it will be something to track after all. What is interesting is this system may be sitting around for a while off shore the coast line if it doesn't take a beam line into Mexico.



Thing going to MX, don't count on anything for us, if it does.....than this was a blown call by all models and forecasters.
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most of the ingredients are favourable for the disturbance at 12N 43W to take off. all it needs isto consolidate the convection and we will have 94L.
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Quoting 445. EyEtoEyE:
. How do you know what the NHC is going or not going to do ?


Just watch the 18Z models.. they all scream fish. That's boring, I hope the 40W disturbance will do something
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Quoting 659. Patrap:

the GOM is starting to resemble a giant swirlie...
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Quoting 661. prcane4you:
Hurry evacuate Florida now.
lol more like get out the rubber rafts LOL
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Quoting 656. Patrap:


Interestingly enough that's the highest support for intensity 92L's ever had.
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Quoting 648. LargoFl:
gee look at all those storms headed towards central florida..that explains what I see right now along the coast..storms coming in a few....
Hurry evacuate Florida now.
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Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
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Quoting 618. opal92nwf:
anyone remember this guy?
Is that Jim Cantore?
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655. VR46L
Quoting 648. LargoFl:
gee look at all those storms headed towards central florida..that explains what I see right now along the coast..storms coming in a few....


possibly...

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Quoting 630. Patrap:


Yup, got booted last week here.

Right turn on red ticket.


Got one about 3 months ago for right turn on red, like $150.00.
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Quoting 643. LafLA:


I live in South Louisiana. No one is getting prepared, there aren't long lines at the gas stations and plywood is not flying off the shelf. Just another typical day just not as hot!


Not necessarily true...I live in New Orleans and I'm stocking up on booze.

Wait...that's just another day in New Orleans ;)
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Quoting 638. clwstmchasr:


I'm certainly not better than you but I don't see any scenario that would cause it to right hook into Florida. Maybe Pensacola but even that is doubtful.
..thanks,,im thinking charley..how wrong they were on where it was coming in..sometimes these storms just defy logic and do what THEY want to do..well keeping a good eye on this one for sure.
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 78367
Quoting 644. CaribBoy:


Fried fish.
Red snapper for me.
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Looking more like Mexico, Texas or LA now.. Florida looks to be taken out of the equation. Still way to early to tell where it is going though, that is if it will be something to track after all. What is interesting is this system may be sitting around for a while off shore the coast line if it doesn't take a beam line into Mexico.

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Quoting 640. Patrap:
gee look at all those storms headed towards central florida..that explains what I see right now along the coast..storms coming in a few....
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Quoting 351. Grothar:
Why don't we not post models at all during the season, but just insult each other until a storm either strikes or dissipates?


Professer!.....Rub the lamp master!
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Quoting 643. LafLA:


I live in South Louisiana. No one is getting prepared, there aren't long lines at the gas stations and plywood is not flying off the shelf. Just another typical day just not as hot!

Haven't seen any of that either. Perhaps further south than me, but most don't react until a system is named. And with this one having a mind of it's own, well....people will wait and see.
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Quoting 635. louisianaboy444:


Yeah I feel you I am so sick of these little storms that create all this hype and then do nothing. I have to give these weather briefings to my boss(non-meteorologist) and he goes all crazy about the impacts of this system and then it dies. It is really getting old...but at least the season is still technically active.
Keep trying.Follow all the blobs you see.Dont forget the spins here and there anywhere.
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Quoting 584. ncstorm:
72 hours


Fried fish.
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643. LafLA
Quoting 467. Dakster:


Interesting. People are getting prepared early now... I am shocked/stunned/surprised. Happy about it -though.


I live in South Louisiana. No one is getting prepared, there aren't long lines at the gas stations and plywood is not flying off the shelf. Just another typical day just not as hot!
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1233 PM CDT Thursday Aug 15 2013

Long term...

upper pattern begins to become cut-off and retains the troughing
pattern over the Gulf states that will erode as low fills in time.
The associated upper level streamline forecasts indicate the col
region to remain in the central Gulf and eventually drift
westward. This is key in that any tropical developments and
ultimate movement from the western Caribbean Sea will be dictated
by the orientation of such col. The longer the troughing remains
in place...keeping the col over the Gulf...the more likely a
western movement will result on invest 92l. If the col gets too
far west however while the trough lifts...then a more
northwestward movement would result. The increasing spread of the
model guidance is an indication of how the models are depicting
the kinematic parameters. For local forecast considerations...will
maintain lower rain chances that trend to more normal rain chances
towards the latter part of the forecast period. Will have to
maintain a wait-and-see posture for another day on any tropical
developments. 24/rr
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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