Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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I see two circulations associated with 92L. The dominant one appears to be over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...just inland west of Cozumel...but I think I see a developing low over northeastern Belize as well. Watch the loop repeatedly:

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Quoting 667. RitaEvac:

Wow, I have a cousin on the blog



Since '05 :)
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Quoting 772. ncstorm:
I dont think ANYONE has any room to call out someone's forecast or prediction..I've been here a long time and seen the best get it wrong..Seen people have left WU behind their forecasts..it happens so lets move on..last time I checked, WU only gives out cookies and you cant eat those..:)


The problem is, in this instance, the poster in question likes to dig up this one tough forecast a prominent poster missed(in good company, no less) LAST YEAR.

Then proceeds to make a 'wildcat' forecast on the current AOI while 'talking major trash' about dissenting forecasts.

Then this frequent poster takes a leave of absence to 'avoid the repercussions' of the 'trash' talking.

Leaving the Kitchen once it Gets Hot, in other words...
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Quoting centex:
didn't mean literal crap.

I know, but it would make me feel bad if I was one of those refugees.
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Your gonna see a better circulation as the friction over the Yucatan helps spin it up, I said it yesterday that the landmass of the Yucatan will help developing systems. When it flops in the GOM on the other side, the ballgame should begin.
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So far this season's storms have been pathetic. Wake me up when shear and mid level dry air is gone. GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF show 30-40kt shear awaiting Erin. Are we in an El Nino? :P
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COC is overland moving nnw and is very broad.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2003
Quoting 779. MississippiWx:


I'm only wrong when I'm breathing.


Hold your breath and tell me what Erin is going to do :)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 778. Gearsts:
For the first time it shows good spin at the surface.

Agreed. May have another shot once it gets back over the gulf.
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Rather obvious 92L moving WNW is set to get further tangled with the Gulf ULL moving SW, on a collision course... some slight shear / dry air at mid up levels introduced, convection associated with 92L getting wrapped into ULL today, with GFS showing 92L located right under the weakening ULL tomorrow morning above NW coast Yucatan. The fractured wave scenario looks a possibility, as after near-term ULL interaction, still seems plausible as been indicated for deepening CONUS long-wave trof dig more into TX-LA by Saturday, scoop most 92L's stretched vorticity, esp bulk of precip / mid level energy northeastward toward mouth MS River / Mobile-Pensacola - with caveats to timing / strength of the CONUS trof, position of 92L as track more over SE LA remains possible... GFS models sfc winds on low's E side to 30 kts, but weak elsewhere around it's circulation and if does fully close off more likely near "landfall" of what could be more a hybrid low, or one in transition... Given it's sizable elongated structure covering lot of W Gulf as forecast by tomorrow onward, and with CONUS trof lifting / replaced w high nosing in from E, a piece of the wave could remain intact along / below LA coast to drift W toward TX early next week, albeit very weak, shallow and dissipating as it goes... LOL, all subject to change, we'll see.


As for Louisiana rushing preparations report, just usual mindful precautionary efforts that I see, minimal at that... Although I wouldn't be surprised if 92L has served as a wake up call for some who put off getting supplies, preparing for what may lie ahead as tropical season peak arrives. Been others since, but best example I recall of LA residents really hitting the panic button / "rushing to complete preps" was Aug '92 when horrifying pics and reports from Homestead came in, with us next in direct path of that bad boy!

I haven't seen it yet locally, but if there is any run on the gas stations today across SE LA perhaps some of it out of direct concern for 92L... the rest probably in anticipation fuel commodity speculators may seize the opportunity to play up any potential Gulf storm threat and spike the price up... like they predictably do.

Later!
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Quoting 767. Patrap:


more models are coming in with TS strength at least for a time..tomorrow will get interesting when its in the gulf with those very warm waters and off land.
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Quoting 772. ncstorm:
I dont think ANYONE has any room to call out someone's forecast or prediction..I've been here a long time and seen the best get it wrong..Seen people have left WU behind their forecasts..it happens so lets move on..last time I checked, WU only gives out cookies and you cant eat those..:)


I'm only wrong when I'm breathing.
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Quoting 753. VR46L:


Depends what you mean ....

For the first time it shows good spin at the surface.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2003
HWRF Ensemble







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The World as is with the Oil Fueled engine me tinks has done enough and continues to, to Terra form the Atmosphere.


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Quoting 768. weatherrx:
Do u think 92L will reach major hurricane status, I think a strengthen Cat 2 at land fall will be a more likely outcome.
What are you on?? 92L wont even reach hurricane status, I am saying a TD, low grade TS at best.
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Quoting 763. tropicallydepressed:
Is it just me or is this a particularly boring tropical cyclone season?
I love boring
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I dont think ANYONE has any room to call out someone's forecast or prediction..I've been here a long time and seen the best get it wrong..Seen people have left WU behind their forecasts..it happens so lets move on..last time I checked, WU only gives out cookies and you cant eat those..:)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 757. yankees440:


In other words, looking as though Levi was spot on with his forecast


Some common sense involved, a tropical wave isn't gonna get picked up by a trough
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Quoting 752. MississippiWx:


You mean the Cat 2 that shoots the gap and makes landfall along the Panhandle forecast? ;-)


That may be relevant to the conversation at hand. ;)

And he has a Met degree according to one post(of HIS) I saw a few days back.

Seems a bit overzealous and excitable for all the mets I have known on a personal level. JMO, though...
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Would it upset the community here if the US government started weakening or destroying tropical entities in the future? Only allow them to hit the US somewhat weak for their rains?
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Do u think 92L will reach major hurricane status, I think a strengthen Cat 2 at land fall will be a more likely outcome.
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we got like 10 weeks left of the hurricane season and most say we will get a mean of 4 major hurricanes. So that means we need to see them starting NOW, which wont happen, and 1 every 16 or so days.
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Quoting 759. LargoFl:
sure looks like it wants to go due north then into florida in that pic


Yeah, first Tampa, then on to JAX maybe?

; )
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764. A4Guy
Quoting 652. LargoFl:
..thanks,,im thinking charley..how wrong they were on where it was coming in..sometimes these storms just defy logic and do what THEY want to do..well keeping a good eye on this one for sure.


You cannot compare this to Charley....which was a Cat 4 storm, by the way...but that aside...Charley was approaching Florida almost parallel to the cost, so the slightest of wobbles on a storm approaching at such an oblique angle has a very,v ery big impact on where the stom lands. Very different from a storm approaching a costline at a more perpendicular angle, where small wobbles are not as magnified.
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Is it just me or is this a particularly boring tropical cyclone season?
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Quoting 748. RitaEvac:
5 days from the Yucatan to these locations, Pfffft

That bend back to west after landfall is just the type of system we are looking for. Does not look like we will get a Hermine type which really helped us.

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are we going to get a real hurricane this year to watch??
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 115 Comments: 107088
Quoting 756. Patrap:
Sing out Hare Hare, dance the Hoochie Koo.
City lights are oh so bright, as we go sliding... sliding... sliding through.



sure looks like it wants to go due north then into florida in that pic
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Quoting 735. VR46L:


Looks like the next two will be similar well according to the GFS ..


Hopefully the GFS is wrong. Yesterday it brought ERIN into the Leewards, and now it shows a fish... so the future may be wayyy different compared with what the GFS has on today's 12Z run :-)
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Quoting 649. DavidHOUTX:
Looking more like Mexico, Texas or LA now.. Florida looks to be taken out of the equation. Still way to early to tell where it is going though, that is if it will be something to track after all. What is interesting is this system may be sitting around for a while off shore the coast line if it doesn't take a beam line into Mexico.



In other words, looking as though Levi was spot on with his forecast
Member Since: August 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 456
Long time no see the TPW:

The (any?) circulation of 92L doesn't look very alarming. Click to enlarge.

Meanwhile strange things happen in Germany ;)
All Hands on Deck: Bavarian Search for Vicious Turtle Continues
Spiegel English, August 15:
No one knows where it is, or even whether it exists at all. The Bavarian village of Irsee is ramping up efforts to find an alligator snapping turtle that is believed to have severed a young boy's Achilles tendon at a local lake last week. ...
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Expect all models to be in MX soon
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753. VR46L
Quoting 738. Gearsts:
Looks better.


Depends what you mean ....

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Quoting 746. seminolesfan:


I know. I just wondered why he's not being his usual talkative self.

Forecasters remorse is a tough pill to swallow.




You mean the Cat 2 that shoots the gap and makes landfall along the Panhandle forecast? ;-)
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The intensity forecast for Erin has been trending up today. A majority of these models were below the NHC's intensity forecast through 120 hours and now the majority is above. The LGEM makes this a quickly-intensifying Category 1 hurricane in 5 days. I doubt it, but I wouldn't hang my hat on dissipation like the global models have been showing. Dorian dissipated, but not because of cool sea surface temperatures...and not even primarily due to dry air. Dorian was embedded within a very large region of sinking air associated with a monster ridge to its north; Erin does not have this.

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whats going on with the nam here?
Link
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5 days from the Yucatan to these locations, Pfffft

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Quoting 715. LargoFl:
he was here this morning


I know. I just wondered why he's not being his usual talkative self.

Forecasters remorse is a tough pill to swallow.

He likes to bring up Debbie from last year on Levi quite frequently. I'm sure he will be back with short term memory issues shortly. ;)


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The upper low by Bermuda has started to work on a lower level vorticiy.



It's alligned with the mid-upper levels





It's currently in a low shear environment and thunderstorms continue to develop in and around the system. Although it's a bit messy at the moment and has some dry air moving in from the east.

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Sadly,seems the Song for some, Remains the Same.

LoL
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Who said the guys that called for the below the prediction numbers total storms, how do we feel and the atlantic is rolling.

I see one little TS that will recurve before doing anything and a crappy invest that dropped to 50% and looks to not be doing much? Just wondering. The Atlantic isnt heating up, we have 1 storm out there and its not going to be doing anything big.
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so far this year five lowgrade TS and no hurricanes maybe its a year of the tropical storms
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 115 Comments: 107088

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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