Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Supposed to be a rainy day in Palm Beach county today....It's hot, but beautiful.
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Ok I am new to this blog however not new to dealing with tropical systems. The past 2 weeks all I have seen in here is fighting and bickering. Here is the bottom line when it comes to hurricane season that I have come to terms with and suggest all do to ease stress, anxiety, and anger:

1) Everyone from Cancun all the way to Maine are at risk for a landfall of some tropical system.

2) Someone every year gets some sort of tropical system make landfall.

3) Unlike all other weather phenomena on earth, hurricanes are the only sytems that provide days if not weeks in advance notice. (I like that sense of comfort)

4) Only worry about what you can control. From May to December all in hurricane prone areas need to be on guard but live your life normal.

5) The 2005 season was one like no other and will happen again in the future.

6) Be as prepared as you can and dont wait till the last minute.

There are many many more I can add to this list however yall get the point. All the whining, wishcasting, downcasting, and bustcasting all take away from what the true experts on here post. They are the ones with the degrees and specalized training and one day they will get tired of all the extra cirricular activity that goes on in this blog, and leave. Remember, they do not have to post on here. They have lives and families of thier own to protect from hurricanes. Ask questions, comment, and add your imput. But dont deviate from what the discussion Dr. Masters posts on here.

With that said, I am on the SE/LA coast. I am not worried about 92l. I am keeping informed from the local news and WU blog as I do with every storm that enters the GOM. However, I dont worry myself to death over it. I go on about my daily life and if/when the order to evacuate comes, I leave. I trust my local area emergency team to keep us safe. They have done it my entire life and I am still safe and alive after each season.

Please post nice and educational thoughts and opinions. Remember it is easy to hide behind a computer screen and smack talk. I am sure those who engage in this activity would never do it face to face. Grow up.

May all stay safe and happy as we approach the peak of hurricane season.
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Quoting 772. ncstorm:
I dont think ANYONE has any room to call out someone's forecast or prediction..I've been here a long time and seen the best get it wrong..Seen people have left WU behind their forecasts..it happens so lets move on..last time I checked, WU only gives out cookies and you cant eat those..:)


Agree, but those same people then shouldn't pound their chest when they are right.
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Wondering what Jase , Wille, and Si think
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all the storms here are moving to the northeast so far..
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Quoting 808. Patrap:
Feels like late Sept in NOLA.

Awesome front.


Yea, it was nice this morning over here in Gulfport too. Very low humidity for August. Of course if that tropical moisture comes up this way, it won't last long.
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Quoting 827. DocNDswamp:


LOL, I hear ya... easy to lose track of 'em, certainly for me - born and lived in SE LA since 1953, seen more than fair share of tropical cyclones... and never had to leave home to "go chasing"... ;)

Andrew was the turning point in my attitude about 'em - prior to that, use to view with interest, anticipation of exhilaration, impact and outcome... following that horrible aftermath, more like turned to dread!


I remember the mass exodus from S LA when Andrew was coming....it was nuts. We just decided to stay (I'm in Lafayette). Lucked out since it came onshore to our East....but it was nervewracking in those early morning hours. And then I saw what it did to the neighbors to our East....a reminder that Mother Nature is in charge.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
18z NAM at 30 hours

Man, I wish 92L would develop an actual center of circulation. At least some more reliable models could initialize correctly, and we wouldn't have to look at the NAM.
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18Z NAM at 36 hours
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but we sure could use the rain down here
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There seems to be at least a MLCOC at 88W, 20.2N right now. Hard to say if the same can be said for the area under it.
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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.



And it looks pretty south XD
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5930
the weather guys in corpus are always very dismissive, they tend to discount everything
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Quoting SuperStorm093:
we got like 10 weeks left of the hurricane season and most say we will get a mean of 4 major hurricanes. So that means we need to see them starting NOW, which wont happen, and 1 every 16 or so days.

Actually we have 15 weeks left to go in the "official" season. Since you seem to be too young to remember, or at least weren't paying attention, take a look at 2005 from today's date forward. We had 20 storms from now until November 30, plus two more outside the "official" season. Nine of these were hurricanes, and five of those were majors. It can and does happen. Sit back, watch, and learn something.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
781. DocNDswamp

HA! I panicked for Lily ;) or maybe it was Gustav....I lose track. I just panic when needed :)


LOL, I hear ya... easy to lose track of 'em, certainly for me - born and lived in SE LA since 1953, seen more than fair share of tropical cyclones... and never had to leave home to "go chasing"... ;)

Andrew was the turning point in my attitude about 'em - prior to that, use to view with interest, anticipation of exhilaration, impact and outcome... following that horrible aftermath, more like turned to dread!

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Quoting 805. louisianaboy444:


Levi had it going into Mexico. SE Texas or Louisiana is not Mexico although I guess his prediction can still verify
Actually Levi is right no matter where it goes because like a wise meteorologist he covered all the bases, not being definite on any one scenario. He simply gave odds on which way but even if it hit the FL. penn. he would still be correct. A bad weatherman is one who says that this or that WILL definitely happen which of course one does not know until it occurs.
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Quoting 810. Drakoen:


Seem like there is some convergence there. It's better for the upper level divergence to far exceed the lower level convergence anyways as that allows pressures to fall at the surface as more is coming out of the column than being put in.
Agreed on the divergence portion, but without converging winds at the surface, the convection is going to have a tough time persisting/continuing. Obviously there's some convergence, but usually I like to see an equal amount of diverging winds aloft and converging winds at the surface that lets me know that the system is breathing nicely. Yesterday's 18z maps are eerily similar to today's map...and we saw what happened.



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Quoting 808. Patrap:
Feels like late Sept in NOLA.

Awesome front.


I was thinking October here. This is quite a treat! Thank you Mother Nature! :D

Aug 15, 2013 3:06 PM
Temp
79.9°F

Switch to Celsius
0mph
Hi: 80°F
Lo: 71°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: NNE 11
Heat Index: 80°F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72°F
Avg Wind: 1 SSW
Pressure: 29.93"
Rain/Month: 0.17"
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Quoting 800. DavidHOUTX:


Lol... I think we need to find out how these things work before we can start destroying them as they approach land.
we must remember..these storm DO have a purpose..removing heat from the oceans.
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18z NAM at 30 hours
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Quoting 818. Grothar:


If you look back on the blog last night and this morning. It was already dubbed "Son of Blobzilla".


Son of Blobzilla...LOL.
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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.



If you look back on the blog last night and this morning. It was already dubbed "Son of Blobzilla".

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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.



More south in latitude than when wave that spawned Erin emerged.
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Quoting 814. hurricanes2018:
invest 90C

I think its a TD already
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invest 90C
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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.



Looks like a circulation is centered around where the northern borders of Cote D'Ivore and Ghana come together.

This is the most organized, massive wave yet.
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Quoting 809. sar2401:

OK, as I thought, a storm troller. Nothing more despicable than people trying to create panic which doesn't exist. On the list you go. Please don't quote this guy either - you're just contributing to the problem if you do.

Right.
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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.



Blobzilla 2
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Quoting 802. MiamiHurricanes09:
Poor convergence. Wouldn't surprise me to see a convective repeat of what happened last night. Obviously, divergent flow aloft is abundant, but without air converging at the surface, you won't be able to continue to develop thunderstorm activity. Furthermore, 92L remains a very broad and disorganized feature at the lower-levels. It will take plenty of time for all of this energy to consolidate into one organized surface circulation, which will evidently take plenty of time. I'd give it a 50% chance of development.







Seem like there is some convergence there. It's better for the upper level divergence to far exceed the lower level convergence anyways as that allows pressures to fall at the surface as more is coming out of the column than being put in.
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Quoting weatherrx:

OK, as I thought, a storm troller. Nothing more despicable than people trying to create panic which doesn't exist. On the list you go. Please don't quote this guy either - you're just contributing to the problem if you do.
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Feels like late Sept in NOLA.

Awesome front.
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There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.

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Looks my forecast is going to be good, a TD moving into the BOC and then mexico/southeast texas.
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Quoting 757. yankees440:


In other words, looking as though Levi was spot on with his forecast


Levi had it going into Mexico. SE Texas or Louisiana is not Mexico although I guess his prediction can still verify
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781. DocNDswamp

HA! I panicked for Lily ;) or maybe it was Gustav....I lose track. I just panic when needed :)
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Quoting 769. Walshy:
Would it upset the community here if the US government started weakening or destroying tropical entities in the future? Only allow them to hit the US somewhat weak for their rains?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA...It would certainly not upset me.
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Poor convergence. Wouldn't surprise me to see a convective repeat of what happened last night. Obviously, divergent flow aloft is abundant, but without air converging at the surface, you won't be able to continue to develop thunderstorm activity. Furthermore, 92L remains a very broad and disorganized feature at the lower-levels. It will take plenty of time for all of this energy to consolidate into one organized surface circulation. I'd give it a 50% chance of development.





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Quoting 796. yankees440:


Easy to say that now. Three days ago no one knew whether this storm would strengthen or not, and so far Levi has been spot on.


Wasn't even an entity 3 days ago
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Quoting 769. Walshy:
Would it upset the community here if the US government started weakening or destroying tropical entities in the future? Only allow them to hit the US somewhat weak for their rains?


Lol... I think we need to find out how these things work before we can start destroying them as they approach land.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Quoting 793. ncstorm:


LOL..He was on here earlier..he was in the kitchen but didnt get burn..

If I may be allowed a bit of speculation:

I would bet he is lurking away and reading each and every post.
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Quoting 792. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see two circulations associated with 92L. The dominant one appears to be over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...just inland west of Cozumel...but I think I see a developing low over northeastern Belize as well. Watch the loop repeatedly:



I was going to post the same thing just a little while ago. Definitely looks like two circulations.
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797. Boca
Quoting 787. TampaBayStormChaser:
Nice thunderstorm with an ominous base pops up over Tampa Bay, builds back to the west, and dissipates. I'm waiting for the outflow boundary from it to spark more storms near St. Petersburg.


Agree. At Ralphs Tropical Weather site there is great info for tracking; especially if you are newbie to weather like me. Both rock!
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Quoting 771. RitaEvac:


Some common sense involved, a tropical wave isn't gonna get picked up by a trough


Easy to say that now. Three days ago no one knew whether this storm would strengthen or not, and so far Levi has been spot on.
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Let me guess, DMAX is going to be big tonight> They said that last night also. Not downcasting, but as others are saying, this is becoming a very boring season/
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Quoting 790. seminolesfan:


The problem is, in this instance, the poster in question likes to dig up this one tough forecast a prominent poster missed(in good company, no less) LAST YEAR.

Then proceeds to make a 'wildcat' forecast on the current AOI while 'talking major trash' about dissenting forecasts.

Then this frequent poster takes a leave of absence to 'avoid the repercussions' of the 'trash' talking.

Leaving the Kitchen once it Gets Hot, in other words...


LOL..He was on here earlier..he was in the kitchen but didnt get burn..
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I see two circulations associated with 92L. The dominant one appears to be over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...just inland west of Cozumel...but I think I see a developing low over northeastern Belize as well. Watch the loop repeatedly:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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