Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 879. bayoubug:
Here in Destrehan my friend.. Welcome..


Thank you. As it looks now get ready for rain this weekend. But right now enjoy the less humid August day. Rare but welcomed.
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Quoting 889. Grothar:


I guess when we tease each other, some new people think we might be serious. I mean, if I didn't tease or insult GeoffWPB or TA twice a day, I would have to take extra heart pills.

Lol.
You said you took some this morning and felt like you were 20...
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Maybe a weak tropical storm, still this model has done good up to this point. Intensity is probably not its greatest strength, but trackwise looks good.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 864. PalmBeachWeather:
cmckla....Without re-posting all that you did...Where are you from...We bicker here, we fight here, we call each other names here, we get banned here, we disagree here ...But we all love each other here(sometimes) One big happy family (sometimes)...Welcome


I guess when we tease each other, some new people think we might be serious. I mean, if I didn't tease or insult GeoffWPB or TA twice a day, I would have to take extra heart pills.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting 878. washingtonian115:
I said this year will be like 2011 in terms of having to wait until late August to have our first hurricane.Seems like I'll win the bet...

Hmm, your right.
I think the wave in front of erin should develop
(Edit, i mean Monsoonal trough)
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Quoting 878. washingtonian115:
I said this year will be like 2011 in terms of having to wait until late August to have our first hurricane.Seems like I'll win the bet...


Personally I'd be amazed to see that happen before my fantasy football draft :)
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886. IKE
Notice the 18Z NAM is shifted to the north. Model is bad on tracks. It was aiming in the western GOM earlier. Bet it shifts a little further east in future runs.
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Quoting chrisdscane:




This is all nice and I agree but thats the way our blog is and will always be. its the internet, thats the way it is just do your best to block out the trolls and u'll be fine.

It's the way every blog is, and I've actually seen much less trolling and outright fighting here than on most blogs, thanks in part to our mods this year. Since we are, most times, an immediate, time sensitive blog, I can't stress too much to use the ignore button. If you're going to read every post from everyone, you won't even get through one page before there's another whole new page when we have storms. I'm ruthless about ignoring during storm season. There are people on here I really want to read. There are others that either have no idea what they're talking about or simply can't seem to get an idea across, let alone the garden variety trolls. No one knows they've been ignored, so it's not like I'm hurting anyone's feelings, but at least I can slow the blog down enough to read the good stuff. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting 868. Grothar:
Erin

Gro.... I just realized something today...The next time Halley's Comet will reappear is in 2061...Write this down on your calendar.. I will meet PBW at Two George's restaurant on the corner of US1 and Hillsboro Blvd. at 6:30 PM on October 16th....Be there or be square....
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18z NAM at 63 hours
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Quoting 841. cmckla:
Ok I am new to this blog however not new to dealing with tropical systems. The past 2 weeks all I have seen in here is fighting and bickering. Here is the bottom line when it comes to hurricane season that I have come to terms with and suggest all do to ease stress, anxiety, and anger:

1) Everyone from Cancun all the way to Maine are at risk for a landfall of some tropical system.

2) Someone every year gets some sort of tropical system make landfall.

3) Unlike all other weather phenomena on earth, hurricanes are the only sytems that provide days if not weeks in advance notice. (I like that sense of comfort)

4) Only worry about what you can control. From May to December all in hurricane prone areas need to be on guard but live your life normal.

5) The 2005 season was one like no other and will happen again in the future.

6) Be as prepared as you can and dont wait till the last minute.

There are many many more I can add to this list however yall get the point. All the whining, wishcasting, downcasting, and bustcasting all take away from what the true experts on here post. They are the ones with the degrees and specalized training and one day they will get tired of all the extra cirricular activity that goes on in this blog, and leave. Remember, they do not have to post on here. They have lives and families of thier own to protect from hurricanes. Ask questions, comment, and add your imput. But dont deviate from what the discussion Dr. Masters posts on here.

With that said, I am on the SE/LA coast. I am not worried about 92l. I am keeping informed from the local news and WU blog as I do with every storm that enters the GOM. However, I dont worry myself to death over it. I go on about my daily life and if/when the order to evacuate comes, I leave. I trust my local area emergency team to keep us safe. They have done it my entire life and I am still safe and alive after each season.

Please post nice and educational thoughts and opinions. Remember it is easy to hide behind a computer screen and smack talk. I am sure those who engage in this activity would never do it face to face. Grow up.

May all stay safe and happy as we approach the peak of hurricane season.

First of all, welcome to the blog!
If you want to get rid of annoying trolls, press ! or - or ignore
I will give you a bit of advice tho
Dont quote the trolls!
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Thank you all that welcomed me to the blog. I am not an expert but enjoy civil talk about the tropics. Hope things turn out well for all this season. And should something threaten be safe be smart and be prepared.
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Quoting 866. calkevin77:


That's awesome AtHome. We're holding in the low 90s here so a bit of relief and the storms to the west in the Hill Country are starting to come alive. Fingers crossed they will be here before sunset.


Hope they hold together fingers crossed here for ya too. :)
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Quoting 873. cmckla:


New Orleans area
Here in Destrehan my friend.. Welcome..
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I said this year will be like 2011 in terms of having to wait until late August to have our first hurricane.Seems like I'll win the bet...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


FWIW again
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
updated map
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
18Z NAM at 54 hours
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Quoting 852. sar2401:

Same situation her in SE AL, with a temperature of 78. However, this is because of a rain cooled atmosphere, not any real slug of cooler air this far south. Like you, my dewpoint is still at 73, so no drier air has made it. We had about 20 minutes of sunshine earlier and the temperature immediately shot up to 89. The front has stalled here, and it looks like it will start moving back north as a warm front later today. I don't believe we're going to see any significant cooler air, or lower pressure, make it into the Gulf from this front, at least not the eastern Gulf.


I believe the front sagged further South over LA and MS, but it will likely back up and won't last long. It did not get as far South in Alabama and Texas.
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Quoting 864. PalmBeachWeather:
cmckla....Without re-posting all that you did...Where are you from...We bicker here, we fight here, we call each other names here, we get banned here, we disagree here ...But we all love each other here(sometimes) One big happy family (sometimes)...Welcome


New Orleans area
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Quoting 868. Grothar:
Erin


Lol grothar.
Did you expect "blobzilla" to be named?
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FWIW, regarding the lack of hurricanes and major hurricanes so far consider this.

  • 2012 after this point cranked out 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Gordon formed today a year ago.

  • 2011 cranked out 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2010 cranked out 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2009 cranked out 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2008 cranked out 6 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2007 cranked out 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes after this date (Dean became a hurricane tomorrow 6 years ago).

  • 2006 cranked out 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2005 cranked out 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes after this date.

  • 2004 cranked out 6 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes after this date.


Based on that, about 85% (rough math estimate) of all major hurricanes and hurricanes in the last 9 years formed after this date.

I think many of you, even though you've watched these things for years, continue to vastly underestimate how active the Atlantic can get.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
TS Erin

5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15
Location: 15.0°N 27.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Erin

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
this place is dead today, I guess nothing really is going on in the tropics other than a curving storm of erin which is pointless
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 823. AtHomeInTX:


I was thinking October here. This is quite a treat! Thank you Mother Nature! :D

Aug 15, 2013 3:06 PM
Temp
79.9°F

Switch to Celsius
0mph
Hi: 80°F
Lo: 71°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: NNE 11
Heat Index: 80°F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72°F
Avg Wind: 1 SSW
Pressure: 29.93"
Rain/Month: 0.17"


That's awesome AtHome. We're holding in the low 90s here so a bit of relief and the storms to the west in the Hill Country are starting to come alive. Fingers crossed they will be here before sunset.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
cmckla....Without re-posting all that you did...Where are you from...We bicker here, we fight here, we call each other names here, we get banned here, we disagree here ...But we all love each other here(sometimes) One big happy family (sometimes)...Welcome
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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERIN HAS EVOLVED INTO ONE THAT FEATURES
MORE BANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OF
26-27C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SSTS INCREASE...ERIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
HAVE TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS
BEEN A SIZEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW A DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF ERIN MOVING MORE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
BE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AZORES. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS SHOW
ERIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...A TURN BACK TOWARD THE LEFT IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.5N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.3N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14777
Lol.The only "experts" I pay attention to are the ones on my T.V screen and the ones I pay for (Capital weather gang).This place is more like second opinion for me.During Sandy I listened to those people and came here second.
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Quoting ColdInFL:
Finally all our rhetoric is starting to pay off! I just hope we all benefit in some way. ;)

Link


Since we have two storms to be concerned about, and the subject of the blog today are those two storms, maybe we can hold off starting back into AGW debates until things are slow.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting 841. cmckla

Very well said!!!
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Quoting 841. cmckla:
Ok I am new to this blog however not new to dealing with tropical systems. The past 2 weeks all I have seen in here is fighting and bickering. Here is the bottom line when it comes to hurricane season that I have come to terms with and suggest all do to ease stress, anxiety, and anger:

1) Everyone from Cancun all the way to Maine are at risk for a landfall of some tropical system.

2) Someone every year gets some sort of tropical system make landfall.

3) Unlike all other weather phenomena on earth, hurricanes are the only sytems that provide days if not weeks in advance notice. (I like that sense of comfort)

4) Only worry about what you can control. From May to December all in hurricane prone areas need to be on guard but live your life normal.

5) The 2005 season was one like no other and will happen again in the future.

6) Be as prepared as you can and dont wait till the last minute.

There are many many more I can add to this list however yall get the point. All the whining, wishcasting, downcasting, and bustcasting all take away from what the true experts on here post. They are the ones with the degrees and specalized training and one day they will get tired of all the extra cirricular activity that goes on in this blog, and leave. Remember, they do not have to post on here. They have lives and families of thier own to protect from hurricanes. Ask questions, comment, and add your imput. But dont deviate from what the discussion Dr. Masters posts on here.

With that said, I am on the SE/LA coast. I am not worried about 92l. I am keeping informed from the local news and WU blog as I do with every storm that enters the GOM. However, I dont worry myself to death over it. I go on about my daily life and if/when the order to evacuate comes, I leave. I trust my local area emergency team to keep us safe. They have done it my entire life and I am still safe and alive after each season.

Please post nice and educational thoughts and opinions. Remember it is easy to hide behind a computer screen and smack talk. I am sure those who engage in this activity would never do it face to face. Grow up.

May all stay safe and happy as we approach the peak of hurricane season.

^ This.

Welcome to the blog. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
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Quoting 808. Patrap:
Feels like late Sept in NOLA.

Awesome front.
Quoting 808. Patrap:
Feels like late Sept in NOLA.

Awesome front.


Sign of things to come I hope. Early fall possibly. Lets wait and see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 841. cmckla:
Ok I am new to this blog however not new to dealing with tropical systems. The past 2 weeks all I have seen in here is fighting and bickering. Here is the bottom line when it comes to hurricane season that I have come to terms with and suggest all do to ease stress, anxiety, and anger:

1) Everyone from Cancun all the way to Maine are at risk for a landfall of some tropical system.

2) Someone every year gets some sort of tropical system make landfall.

3) Unlike all other weather phenomena on earth, hurricanes are the only sytems that provide days if not weeks in advance notice. (I like that sense of comfort)

4) Only worry about what you can control. From May to December all in hurricane prone areas need to be on guard but live your life normal.

5) The 2005 season was one like no other and will happen again in the future.

6) Be as prepared as you can and dont wait till the last minute.

There are many many more I can add to this list however yall get the point. All the whining, wishcasting, downcasting, and bustcasting all take away from what the true experts on here post. They are the ones with the degrees and specalized training and one day they will get tired of all the extra cirricular activity that goes on in this blog, and leave. Remember, they do not have to post on here. They have lives and families of thier own to protect from hurricanes. Ask questions, comment, and add your imput. But dont deviate from what the discussion Dr. Masters posts on here.

With that said, I am on the SE/LA coast. I am not worried about 92l. I am keeping informed from the local news and WU blog as I do with every storm that enters the GOM. However, I dont worry myself to death over it. I go on about my daily life and if/when the order to evacuate comes, I leave. I trust my local area emergency team to keep us safe. They have done it my entire life and I am still safe and alive after each season.

Please post nice and educational thoughts and opinions. Remember it is easy to hide behind a computer screen and smack talk. I am sure those who engage in this activity would never do it face to face. Grow up.

May all stay safe and happy as we approach the peak of hurricane season.




This is all nice and I agree but thats the way our blog is and will always be. its the internet, thats the way it is just do your best to block out the trolls and u'll be fine.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I was thinking October here. This is quite a treat! Thank you Mother Nature! :D

Aug 15, 2013 3:06 PM
Temp
79.9°F

Switch to Celsius
0mph
Hi: 80°F
Lo: 71°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: NNE 11
Heat Index: 80°F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72°F
Avg Wind: 1 SSW
Pressure: 29.93"
Rain/Month: 0.17"

Same situation her in SE AL, with a temperature of 78. However, this is because of a rain cooled atmosphere, not any real slug of cooler air this far south. Like you, my dewpoint is still at 73, so no drier air has made it. We had about 20 minutes of sunshine earlier and the temperature immediately shot up to 89. The front has stalled here, and it looks like it will start moving back north as a warm front later today. I don't believe we're going to see any significant cooler air, or lower pressure, make it into the Gulf from this front, at least not the eastern Gulf.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
NAM at 48 hours
Low still sitting in the middle of the GOM, but it becoming stretched out to the north.
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Finally all our rhetoric is starting to pay off! I just hope we all benefit in some way. ;)

Link

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12z GFS run at 006 hours



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
Quoting 648. LargoFl:
gee look at all those storms headed towards central florida..that explains what I see right now along the coast..storms coming in a few....


Actually, despite deep moisture and high rain chances in the forecast, today remains yet another day of below August normal coverage where most of us stay dry.

The amount of moisture should be bringing above normal coverage but so far it is below normal.

Yesterday was actually more active, so much for 30% yesterday and 60% today.

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Quoting 846. SouthernIllinois:

Ex-hubby right?
LOL....You got that right...Good guess
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Erin coming together nicely, we'll see how storng it gets over the next few days.

Link


There is some sal but not any bright reds or oranges like there once was.
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Quoting 840. luvtogolf:


Agree, but those same people then shouldn't pound their chest when they are right.
Silverbacks
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FWIW
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Supposed to be a rainy day in Palm Beach county today....It's hot, but beautiful.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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