Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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I wonder how conditions are in the Cape verde islands right now..
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It should be noted that storms that form and strengthen early near the Cape-Verde Islands have a tendency to recurve early. That is usually the case in any given season. The ones to watch for are the ones that struggle and get near the islands.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8568
Quoting 935. MississippiWx:


Could benefit from 2 d-max periods as it will be close to emerging off the coast during water's d-max tomorrow morning. Will just have to see how fast it moves.


As we speak convection appears to be firing further to the west closer to the supposed center of circulation
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Quoting 935. MississippiWx:


Could benefit from 2 d-max periods as it will be close to emerging off the coast during water's d-max tomorrow morning. Will just have to see how fast it moves.

It might stall in the gulf...
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Quoting 922. washingtonian115:
Well Wallah there you go..lol.


Wow, you speak Arabic, Wash, I'm impressed. Had to look it up in Urban Dictionary though. Something new every day on this blog, lol. Bye everyone ...
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If the tropical waves keep developing so fast then they will recurve but we just need one to take her time developing and move closer to the ITCZ instead of moving nw where waters are 26c or below and dry sinking air will kill it.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
Quoting 930. opal92nwf:
Okay, so we're at the E storm right now right halfway through August.

In 1975, the E storm (Eloise) didn't form until September 16th.

Yep.
Valid point.
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Quoting 905. louisianaboy444:
Not sure if anyone has taken this into account but since 92L is now over land the Diurnal cycles are now reversed. DMAX will happen around sunset and most likely will get convection firing.


Could benefit from 2 d-max periods as it will be close to emerging off the coast during water's d-max tomorrow morning. Will just have to see how fast it moves.
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Quoting 872. flcanes:

Lol grothar.
Did you expect "blobzilla" to be named?


I thought it would be Erin.



GFS ensemble models

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
yes 18z Nam has it a TS at landfall.....we'll see..days away yet..
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Quoting 927. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dry air will not be a problem around the peak of the season. The MJO pattern will be favorable by that time forcing upward motion and the high to retreat some towards the north, what is more important to look at by that time is the western edge of the high and how strong it is then on top of any troughing pattern that would steer storms away from the CONUS.

I think this year will be different from 2010.
Most of these storms that come off africa should make landfall somewhere.
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Going out with friends for supper in a bit...The highlight of my day is" I recorded 3 new shows of DUCK DYNASTY" That's what I'm doing tonight...Can't wait...Love my Jase
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Okay, so we're at the E storm right now right halfway through August.

In 1975, the E storm (Eloise) didn't form until September 16th.
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Quoting 925. sar2401:

Goodbye.
Goodbye.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Is it possible the Nam is working that ull to the surface or a hybrid storm..Just a question..
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Dry air will not be a problem around the peak of the season. The MJO pattern will be favorable by that time forcing upward motion and the high to retreat some towards the north, what is more important to look at by that time is the western edge of the high and how strong it is then on top of any troughing pattern that would steer storms away from the CONUS.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8568
Wave behind Erin will come offshore too far north and will curve if it forms.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting SuperStorm093:

Goodbye.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting 903. barbamz:
Death toll of Utor in China unfortunately has risen by two:

Typhoon Utor Kills 3 in S China
2013-08-15 22:06:46 Xinhua Jing
Three people have died and five others remain missing in south China due to Typhoon Utor, which has been bringing high winds and torrential rains to the region since Wednesday.
More than 1 million people in south China's Guangdong Province have been affected by downpours and floods triggered by the typhoon, the provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters said.
The typhoon has forced the relocation of 161,500 people, as well as destroyed nearly 1,500 homes, the headquarters said.
In the cities of Zhanjiang and Wuchuan, several villages were flooded, as embankments along the swollen Quehua River were breached on Wednesday. Four hundred armed police are participating in rescue efforts. ...


Whole article see link above. Good night from Germany, and 92L may behave in whatever way you like.


barbamz - I was a little surprised when I saw in the BBC video you posted earlier that 400+ mm (16+ in) of rain hit parts of China from Utor. This level of damage makes sense given those rainfall amounts.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
LOL Silly nam and it's tricks again. This is why it isn't a tropical model.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Good by Erin "Home is where the fish is".
Quoting 912. PalmBeachWeather:
Wash...Glad you said it...I've been awake nights trying to figure out the spelling of the word "Wallah".. Finally, I can get some sleep tonight
Well Wallah there you go..lol.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting 917. WxGeekVA:

Wow that wave behind Erin is SCARY!
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Quoting 917. WxGeekVA:

That wave behind erin makes her look tiny.
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Fish Storm... Definitively...
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Quoting 883. Sfloridacat5:
18z NAM at 63 hours
that's were Nam had it early this morning as well..i frightened a few by posting a graph just like that one lol..guess we really do have to keep a good eye on 92
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Quoting 900. ncstorm:
12z JMA--starting at 48 hours








Looks like an Andrea, Lee, Debby scenario. Lopsided East Storm. Nothing on the West.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8568
18z NAM at 72 hours (3 days) landfall
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Quoting 896. washingtonian115:
It's already mid-august and we still have yet to get our first hurricane.I said dry air was going to be a problem this year like it was in 2011.And Wallah it has caused intensity problems for the storms this year.
Wash...Glad you said it...I've been awake nights trying to figure out the spelling of the word "Wallah".. Finally, I can get some sleep tonight
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.
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Quoting 905. louisianaboy444:
Not sure if anyone has taken this into account but since 92L is now over land the Diurnal cycles are now reversed. DMAX will happen around sunset and most likely getting convection firing.

Hmm... Thats odd.
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Quoting 897. Grothar:


Obviously they have side-effect. I just looked into the mirror. (Wow, you can remember something from this morning, I'm impressed)

Yep. I am pretty young (still an adult tho!)
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
"FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES."



Can you say FISH........
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Not sure if anyone has taken this into account but since 92L is now over land the Diurnal cycles are now reversed. DMAX will happen around sunset and most likely will get convection firing.
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Quoting 895. flcanes:

Into florida?
I am moving over to levi's side and saying somewhere on the international border.
Stick to your prediction, but mine remains the same a moderate tropical storm on the northeast gulf, anywhere from NOLA to Pensacola.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8568
Death toll of Utor in China unfortunately has risen by two:

Typhoon Utor Kills 3 in S China
2013-08-15 22:06:46 Xinhua Jing
Three people have died and five others remain missing in south China due to Typhoon Utor, which has been bringing high winds and torrential rains to the region since Wednesday.
More than 1 million people in south China's Guangdong Province have been affected by downpours and floods triggered by the typhoon, the provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters said.
The typhoon has forced the relocation of 161,500 people, as well as destroyed nearly 1,500 homes, the headquarters said.
In the cities of Zhanjiang and Wuchuan, several villages were flooded, as embankments along the swollen Quehua River were breached on Wednesday. Four hundred armed police are participating in rescue efforts. ...


Whole article see link above. Good night from Germany, and 92L may behave in whatever way you like.
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FIM has no closed circulation so its prob not a TS.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Houston/Galveston isn't worried one bit about it:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. STILL
LOOKING FOR SOME ISO/SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW 1/2 TO 1/3 OF
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN & EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SITUATED. ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT WILL LEAVE
SOME LOWISH POPS IN SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING ABOUT AREA.

ELONGATED/BROAD TROF ALONG THE YUCATAN SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS DEEPER MID LEVEL TROF GETS CARVED
OUT INTO THE MS VALLEY & SE STATES. WE SHOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THINGS & NE FLOW SHOULD BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION OVER THE THE WEEKEND. RH`S SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE IN THE AFTN AND A DECENT CHUNK OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 65-72 DEGREE RANGE. DID GO A TAD
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INLAND CONSIDERING THE DRY
AIRMASS...BUT EVEN THEN THEY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO (& MINUS THE
HUMIDITY).

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION SFC TROF AXIS IN THE GULF MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST OF MEXICO & NRN PART SLOWING/STRETCHING TO NEAR THE LA
COAST...BASICALLY SITUATED UNDER THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SE TX ON THE DRY SIDE INTO TUE. MAY SEE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
SFC/LLVL TROF BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND ONSHORE WINDS RE-DEVELOP.
47

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12z JMA--starting at 48 hours








Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15745
About to lose the sunlight, but keep an eye on the disturbance at 40 West there is some model support for it could be Caribbean bound.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8568
898. IKE
Flash Flood Watch FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

.HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH A DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE VERY WET SUMMER HAS MADE THE
REGION MUCH MORE VULNERABLE THAN NORMAL TO FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-108-112-114-162100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.A.0008.130816T1800Z-130819T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...FREEPORT...
SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...PORT SAINT JOE
347 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013 /247 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. IN
FLORIDA...CALHOUN...WALTON...BAY...GULF...HOLMES.. .JACKSON AND
WASHINGTON.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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Quoting 891. flcanes:

Lol.
You said you took some this morning and felt like you were 20...


Obviously they have side-effect. I just looked into the mirror. (Wow, you can remember something from this morning, I'm impressed)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting 887. calkevin77:


Personally I'd be amazed to see that happen before my fantasy football draft :)
It's already mid-august and we still have yet to get our first hurricane.I said dry air was going to be a problem this year like it was in 2011.And Wallah it has caused intensity problems for the storms.
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Quoting 890. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Maybe a weak tropical storm, still this model has done good up to this point. Intensity is probably not its greatest strength, but trackwise looks good.


Into florida?
I am moving over to levi's side and saying somewhere on the international border.
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Quoting 884. PalmBeachWeather:
Gor.... I just realized something today...The next time Halley's Comet will reappear is in 2061...Write this down on your calendar.. I will meet PBW at Two George's restaurant on the corner of US1 and Hillsboro Blvd. at 6:30 PM on October 16th....Be there or be square....


Mark Twain asked me to do the same, but that was the day he died so he never showed and I got stuck with the bill.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting 886. IKE:
Notice the 18Z NAM is shifted to the north. Model is bad on tracks. It was aiming in the western GOM earlier. Bet it shifts a little further east in future runs.


It was saying Louisiana this morning as well...now that my friend is a windshield wiper model :)_
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Quoting 879. bayoubug:
Here in Destrehan my friend.. Welcome..


Thank you. As it looks now get ready for rain this weekend. But right now enjoy the less humid August day. Rare but welcomed.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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