Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Good afternoon/evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 15th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Sar, you said last night 92L would be forgotten this time next week and that it was highly unlikely that it would go into the central Gulf and then northward from there. You also stated you didn't think it would develop. You stated when I talked about the NHC's thinking of development and northern movement, "I could get hit by a meteor shower too." Jeff, NHC, models all disagree with you. Since your great at sarcastically coming down on others when you disagree with their forecast opinions, just hope you'll crow up when and if your proven wrong.
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Looking at the IR view of the GOM I see a small but "attractive" blob that's dropped into the Gulf from SE Texas! MCS, presumably. Wish it could enhance itself in the Gulf and charge back into Texas with more rain....
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Have a good evening all..You are the best...Take care
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Quoting 979. washingtonian115:
I see this has turned into a bashing/belittle session....So let me get the hell out of here...
That's what I'm talkin' bout
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Quoting flcanes:

Eastward bias again?

As Grothar said, very little change. The dynamic models are the one to pay attention to, although all the models are not reliable right now, due to not having an organized low to look at. All the local mets are completely discounting the GFS showing an eastern Gulf landfall, and I agree. The tracks will change if and when we finally get a low, but somewhere in Mexico or right at the Mexico/Texas line still looks the most likely to me, given the small amount of information we have to go on.
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Quoting 982. Llamaluvr:
I think you're right on with this one you old turnip! However, I think you may not be correct about the MJO enhancing 92L. See what I'm saying?
"That's what I'm talkin' but"
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BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 960. Tazmanian:



This be come its in the wave is in the same spot dos not mean it will be a fish storm
I think you're right on with this one you old turnip! However, I think you may not be correct about the MJO enhancing 92L. See what I'm saying?
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Quoting 944. luvtogolf:


You are saying it won't be a problem around the peak of the season. It is Aug 15th and we are now in the peak of the season for the next 8 weeks.
The official peak of the hurricane season is not until Sept. 10th



The last 3 years and this year line up well with the period of activity that started in 1998-2003. In that span we had neutral ENSO to weak-La Nina, with 2002 being an weak El-Nino. Odds are next year we see El-Nino conditions.

1999 saw a barrage of East Coast Storms.



2000 most of the Cape-Verde hurricanes stayed OTS.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
I see this has turned into a bashing/belittle session....So let me get the hell out of here...
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Quoting 974. daddyjames:


I believe that it is used as an acknowledgement of agreement - affirmation of something. it does not necessarily require a reply.
Ok daddy...That's what I'm talkin' bout
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Quoting 961. PalmBeachWeather:
OK...Speaking of language.... I need some help interpreting.. I keep hearing young people saying"That's What I'm Talkin' Bout" Even though no one was talking about anything...Do I respond or act like a fool and shrug my shoulders??
I've had to ask my children..they said it means that when the person says that they are "feeling something" or agree with it..
Quoting 955. barbamz:


Link
"Shrugs".It appears wu is also a foreign language course..
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Quoting 949. daddyjames:


Interesting that the NHC OFCL track is ignoring that a majority of the models take it much further north, although they do note that it may have to be adjusted. The OFCL track mirrors the DSHP prediction. In your vast reservoir of knowledge, any notion why they are choosing the more southerly route for now?


Weaker system.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
There is a stronger short wave digging down.. That's what the models may be picking up on..
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Quoting 961. PalmBeachWeather:
OK...Speaking of language.... I need some help interpreting.. I keep hearing young people saying"That's What I'm Talkin' Bout" Even though no one was talking about anything...Do I respond or act like a fool and shrug my shoulders??


I believe that it is used as an acknowledgement of agreement - affirmation of something. it does not necessarily require a reply.
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No change with erin.
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971. VR46L
Quoting 958. ncstorm:


Wow..VR..I havent seen the blue circle none this hurricane season..you might be first to post that..


I posted it for Alvin and Barry Here this season guess you were not on at the time.
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964. Grothar
Little switch in the models again

I think the models are having fun at our expense ;)
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Quoting 967. daddyjames:


However, it is expected to intensify a bit before weakening. perhaps it will be related to the amount of intensification that occurs in relationship with the ULL attemping to pull it up to the north.

Well, dorian moved north west before degenerating. The same might apply for erin.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Wow that wave behind Erin is SCARY!

All the lows over Africa have looked very impressive since June. They don't hold up too well once they get offshore. We'll see if this one can break the pattern.
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Quoting 956. flcanes:

Hmm.
Well with dorian, when models were throwing him out to sea, he weakened. Weakened storms tend to be less affected by areas of low pressure.


However, it is expected to intensify a bit before weakening. perhaps it will be related to the amount of intensification that occurs in relationship with the ULL attemping to pull it up to the north.
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Quoting 964. Grothar:
Little switch in the models again

GFS ensemble




dynamic models


Eastward bias again?
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French. and it's spelled "Voila"
voila

Quoting 950. washingtonian115:
I'm not to sure about different parts of the country nor the world but around here it means "and there you go" or miracle.
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Little switch in the models again

GFS ensemble




dynamic models

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting 61. FLwolverine:
From the last blog:

Actually it was Audrey Meadows as Alice Kramden - usually when Ralph had done something irrevocably dumb:

Pins and needles, needles and pins,
A happy woman is a woman who grins!


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Nope sorry I disagree :) I am old enough, unfortunately :) and watched many times and remember this episode:


Ralph telling Alice how the doctor fixed him. Here it is, he says whenever I get steamed, I say this: "Pins and needles, needles and pins... it's a happy man that grins." Then I smile to myself. And then I say, "What am I mad about?" And it works. I couldn't think of what I was mad about!

Sorry LOL back to weather!

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Quoting 938. barbamz:


Wow, you speak Arabic, Wash, I'm impressed. Had to look it up in Urban Dictionary though. Something new every day on this blog, lol. Bye everyone ...


Voila- pronounced wha-la- "there you go.."
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OK...Speaking of language.... I need some help interpreting.. I keep hearing young people saying"That's What I'm Talkin' Bout" Even though no one was talking about anything...Do I respond or act like a fool and shrug my shoulders??
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Quoting 946. opal92nwf:
Even though it appears that the convection with the wave over Africa is about the same latitude as Erin (which would make it a fish storm), it appears there might be more of a circulation or at least part of the wave of low pressure to the southeast of that. And the whole thing is moving southwest.



This be come its in the wave is in the same spot dos not mean it will be a fish storm
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Quoting 912. PalmBeachWeather:
Wash...Glad you said it...I've been awake nights trying to figure out the spelling of the word "Wallah".. Finally, I can get some sleep tonight

Actually it's VOILA with an accent on the a.
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Quoting 952. VR46L:
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Erin



Wow..VR..I havent seen the blue circle none this hurricane season..you might be first to post that..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Chance of northern portion of 92L as it interacts with ULL over Gulf splitting from the low over Yucatan?
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Quoting 949. daddyjames:


Interesting that the NHC OFCL track is ignoring that a majority of the models take it much further north, although they do note that it may have to be adjusted. The OFCL track mirrors the DSHP prediction. In your vast reservoir of knowledge, any notion why they are choosing the more southerly route for now?

Hmm.
Well with dorian, when models were throwing him out to sea, he weakened. Weakened storms tend to be less affected by areas of low pressure.
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Quoting 950. washingtonian115:
I'm not to sure about different parts of the country nor the world but around here it means "and there you go" or miracle.


Wallah: Link
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Quoting 902. SuperStorm093:
FIM has no closed circulation so its prob not a TS.
Thank you. The people of Portugal are breathing a little easier now.
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folks pls note.the 10 inches line within this tropical plume of moisture....
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952. VR46L
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Erin

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Quoting 936. flcanes:

Yep.
Valid point.

I was too lazy to finish saying anything else. lol

Just another example of what a seemingly inactive hurricane season can do.
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Quoting 938. barbamz:


Wow, you speak Arabic, Wash, I'm impressed. Had to look it up in Urban Dictionary though. Something new every day on this blog, lol. Bye everyone ...
I'm not to sure about different parts of the country nor the world but around here it means "and there you go" or miracle.
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Quoting 934. Grothar:


I thought it would be Erin.



GFS ensemble models



Interesting that the NHC OFCL track is ignoring that a majority of the models take it much further north, although they do note that it may have to be adjusted. The OFCL track mirrors the DSHP prediction. In your vast reservoir of knowledge, any notion why they are choosing the more southerly route for now?
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The Atlantic has just begun its ramp-up in activity. Global models are in decent agreement that we should see a more bonified MJO signal evolve over the western hemisphere over the next two weeks, progressing through octants 8, 1, and eventually 2. The MJO is associated with rising air which promotes the development of thunderstorm activity. In addition, we should continue to see a series of kelvin waves progress across the basin through the beginning of September; in case you were wondering the potency of these features, Erin was spawned nearly wholeheartedly because of one. If you've been following wind shear maps, you will notice there's a lot less wind shear now than there was a week ago -- this is because the Atlantic is undergoing a pattern change in which upper-level ridging is becoming the dominant feature. Upper-level ridging is characterized by anticyclonic flow aloft which is characterized with favorable shear for cyclones. There's not much on the global models yet...what's new?...but the CFS has been consistent with a barrage of tropical cyclones soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting 941. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It should be noted that storms that form and strengthen early near the Cape-Verde Islands have a tendency to recurve early. That is usually the case in any given season. The ones to watch for are the ones that struggle and get near the islands.

That might happen with the one at 40w....
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Even though it appears that the convection with the wave over Africa is about the same latitude as Erin (which would make it a fish storm), it appears there might be more of a circulation or at least part of the wave of low pressure to the southeast of that. And the whole thing is moving southwest.
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from 2011 Hurricane Season on Doc's Blog..

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.

Danielle recurved, 96L became Earl..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 927. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dry air will not be a problem around the peak of the season. The MJO pattern will be favorable by that time forcing upward motion and the high to retreat some towards the north, what is more important to look at by that time is the western edge of the high and how strong it is then on top of any troughing pattern that would steer storms away from the CONUS.


You are saying it won't be a problem around the peak of the season. It is Aug 15th and we are now in the peak of the season for the next 8 weeks.
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Quoting 807. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Fernand...or Gabrielle if 92L organizes quickly...early next week.

Hopefully Gabrielle.
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I wonder how conditions are in the Cape verde islands right now..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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