Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1006. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Numbers by the years:

1998: 14/10/3
1999: 12/8/5
2000: 15/8/3
2001: 15/9/4
2002: 12/4/2 (El-Nino)
2003: 16/7/3

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 5/0/0
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino)
2015: _/_/_

I firmly believe that these hurricane seasons follow a cycle. I also think some of us are spoiled by the active seasons we have had in recent years, but I easily expect anywhere from 12-18 named storms 4-10 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes when this season is over. "Unless" El-Nino abruptly forms by October and even then that year featured Isidore and Lili. All signs are pointing to an active season and I think some of you just need to relax and maybe go take a drink to calm the overreactions too. :P



4-10 hurricanes is a very large range.

I'm feeling its most likely to end up being around 16/5/2
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Hey guys! Long time watcher, first time poster.

**How do I add an avatar picture?** nevermind I see it now after my first post :)
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I guess the Bermuda High will break down allowing Erin to go north.

How about the waves that follow? Are we in for a period of curvitures?
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The wave approaching 10 W showing some decent rotation, plus the one behind it to follow. As Levi points out,the season is yet to really switch to an active one

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1038. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FLZ024-025-152200-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
532 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN DUVAL
AND EASTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
YULEE TO NAS JAX...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NAS JAX...TALLYRAND...SAN MARCO...
RIVERSIDE...ORTEGA...OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...MANDARIN AND YULEE THROUGH 600 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
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I just wanna be friends...


Sorry for any ill will implied, STS.
Seriously.
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Quoting 1008. seminolesfan:


Listen here, bud. I took the time to PM you and explain my posts on the blog...hours ago.

You like to be the big man and call others out on forecasts from past years.

If your gonna dish it like a man, take it like one too.

I'll meet ya at the Red Lobster at 436&I4 if you want to want to act all High School about this.

Cheese Biscuits are on me, sound good?



You guys are adorable.

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So based on what I'm seeing from the GFS runs lately, basically the next wave is potent enough to be a TD as it rolls off the coast or very soon after. I'm on my iPad and can't see any of images or loops of Africa (stupid tablet and lack of flash player), is that next 'wave' looking that robust already?
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Quoting 1023. seminolesfan:


No, they don't.

That is what is called an 'on-ramp' for the interstate highway.
It is to allow vehicles to merge onto the higher speed road safely.



is that what that is called? gee, eisenhower was a mad man.
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Quoting 1006. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Numbers by the years:

1998: 14/10/3
1999: 12/8/5
2000: 15/8/3
2001: 15/9/4
2002: 12/4/2 (El-Nino)
2003: 16/7/3

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 5/0/0
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino)
2015: _/_/_

I firmly believe that these hurricane seasons follow a cycle. I also think some of us are spoiled by the active seasons we have had in recent years, but I easily expect anywhere from 12-18 named storms 4-10 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes when this season is over. "Unless" El-Nino abruptly forms by October and even then that year featured Isidore and Lili. All signs are pointing to an active season and I think some of you just need to relax and maybe go take a drink to calm the overreactions too. :P


That's some range you got there for a Mid August forecast.
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1031. LargoFl
Quoting 1028. Eyewall07:


Besides 7"-10" of rain can kill just as easy as a Cat 3. In the words of Neil Frank "9 out 10 people drown in a storm"
yes this is what ive been afraid of all along..the flash flooding etc..we'll see what happens..just hope folks stay alert and listen..to their local warnings.
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Listen here jackwagon

ok wait i'm not taken sides but that is the funniest thing I've heard in awhile. I'm going to use it. holy cow I cant stop laughing.
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Quoting 1021. SLU:


I'm not holding my breathe.

That's why I put it in quotes. :D Seems almost impossible at this point.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8429
Quoting 1018. LargoFl:
well we shall see what happens in the next few day, me I go with the NHC and what they say..will be better once its in the gulf and the planes go into it.


Besides 7"-10" of rain can kill just as easy as a Cat 3. In the words of Neil Frank "9 out 10 people that die in a storm drown"
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1027. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Sar, you said last night 92L would be forgotten this time next week and that it was highly unlikely that it would go into the central Gulf and then northward from there. You also stated you didn't think it would develop. You stated when I talked about the NHC's thinking of development and northern movement, "I could get hit by a meteor shower too." Jeff, NHC, models all disagree with you. Since your great at sarcastically coming down on others when you disagree with their forecast opinions, just hope you'll crow up when and if your proven wrong.

I'll be happy to eat crow, but I'm simply giving my opinion. I don't have the training to be a forecaster. I still believe exactly what I wrote yesterday. It has not developed, it's not in the Central Gulf, the NHC is saying it may head toward the Central Gulf, when, and if, it develops. I actually overstated my opinion yesterday, when I thought 92L would be a TD when it made landfall. It didn't even develop that much. It still has to get by the Yucatan and develop into an actual low. I haven't read or seen anything that changes my opinion.

I do try to base my opinions on what the satellite data is showing, as well as the other tools, like ASCAT, are also showing. Models, at this point of development, are not much better than throwing darts, since anything from it never get out of the Yucatan to landfall in the Panhandles have been shown on the models. You were, as I recall, saying that you thought an eastern Florida landfall was likely. I believe that's about as likely as a meteor hitting my house. Just my opinion, as you have yours. My actual life doesn't revolve around whether my opinion here is right or wrong, so I have no problem with the idea my opinion will often be wrong, considering I'm not a professional. Anyway, I still think 92L will be forgotten a week from now. We'll know a week from now if that's correct.
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Quoting 1010. Levi32:
So...this little guy in the central Pacific isn't a tropical cyclone?

its look like a tropical d to me
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1125 AM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST
NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$
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Quoting 1011. MisterPerfect:


don't I4 and 436 run parallel to each other?

oh they do..never mind



No, they don't.

That is what is called an 'on-ramp' for the interstate highway.
It is to allow vehicles to merge onto the higher speed road safely.

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Quoting 1016. Naga5000:


Yes and no. They meet up. All the roads here are wonky because of the lakes.


yeah...I remember now. Forgot about Almonte Springs.

I remember the good old days...Orlando Jai-ali...Dog Track in Sanford..ahhh. those were the days
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1021. SLU
Quoting 1006. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Numbers by the years:

1998: 14/10/3
1999: 12/8/5
2000: 15/8/3
2001: 15/9/4
2002: 12/4/2 (El-Nino)
2003: 16/7/3

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 5/0/0
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino)
2015: _/_/_

I firmly believe that these hurricane seasons follow a cycle. I also think some of us are spoiled by the active seasons we have had in recent years, but I easily expect anywhere from 12-18 named storms 4-10 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes when this season is over. "Unless" El-Nino abruptly forms by October and even then that year featured Isidore and Lili. All signs are pointing to an active season and I think some of you just need to relax and maybe go take a drink to calm the overreactions too. :P



I'm not holding my breathe.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5254
Now kids lets play nice.
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Quoting 1014. HurricaneAndre:
What time do you think the wave on Africa will get off.

Will it be in the 8 or 2 TWO.

I say 9pm ET and the 2 TWO.

The big wave over Africa behind Erin? You're kidding me right? Won't be on the TWO until it gets near the coast and is a threat to develop.
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1018. LargoFl
Quoting 995. sar2401:

The words in bold are the real forecast. It's still a disturbance. Nothing will happen if it can't develop a low level closed circulation. Even if it does, the low will move toward the central Gulf...not in the central Gulf. The "IF ANY" part is a good indication that the NHC is not gung-ho on this becoming much of anything.
well we shall see what happens in the next few day, me I go with the NHC and what they say..will be better once its in the gulf and the planes go into it.
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Quoting 1010. Levi32:
So...this little guy in the central Pacific isn't a tropical cyclone?


I think it lacks a closed low-level circulation, like its friend to the east (90C).
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Quoting 1011. MisterPerfect:


don't I4 and 436 run parallel to each other?


Yes and no. They meet up. All the roads here are wonky because of the lakes.
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Quoting 1012. FSUCOOPman:


Actually, they're cheddar bay biscuits and they're free with dinner! :-P


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What time do you think the wave on Africa will get off.

Will it be in the 8 or 2 TWO.

I say 9pm ET and the 2 TWO.
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Quoting 995. sar2401:

The words in bold are the real forecast. It's still a disturbance. Nothing will happen if it can't develop a low level closed circulation. Even if it does, the low will move toward the central Gulf...not in the central Gulf. The "IF ANY" part is a good indication that the NHC is not gung-ho on this becoming much of anything.

Don't fool yourselves. Nothing is going to happen here.
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Quoting 1008. seminolesfan:


Cheese Biscuits on me sound good?


Actually, they're cheddar bay biscuits and they're free with dinner! :-P
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Quoting 1008. seminolesfan:


Listen here, bud. I took the time to PM you and explain my posts on the blog...hours ago.

You like to be the big man and call others out on forecasts from past years.

If your gonna dish it like a man, take it like one too.

I'll meet ya at the Red Lobster at 436&I4 if you want to want to act all High School about this.

Cheese Biscuits are on me, sound good?


don't I4 and 436 run parallel to each other?

oh they dont..never mind

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1010. Levi32
So...this little guy in the central Pacific isn't a tropical cyclone?

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
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Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:


Listen here jackwagon I haven't been on because I have been busy at work. Yes, I blew a forecast and I own as many on here did including the NHC. I come back and see some ying yang is trash talking go figure.



Listen here, bud. I took the time to PM you and explain my posts on the blog...hours ago.

You like to be the big man and call others out on forecasts from past years.

If your gonna dish it like a man, take it like one too.

I'll meet ya at the Red Lobster at 436&I4 if you want to want to act all High School about this.

Cheese Biscuits are on me, sound good?
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1007. icmoore
Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:


Listen here jackwagon I haven't been on because I have been busy at work. Yes, I blew a forecast and I own as many on here did including the NHC. I come back and see some ying yang is trash talking go figure.



Don't let anyone bait you, I for one like your input here. I have seen you be right and be wrong just like everyone else. A forecast is an opinion and a prediction, some more educated than others but all worthy to hear out, life and weather are a continuous learning process at least for this old lady :) Peace.
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Numbers by the years:

1998: 14/10/3
1999: 12/8/5
2000: 15/8/3
2001: 15/9/4
2002: 12/4/2 (El-Nino)
2003: 16/7/3

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 5/0/0
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino)
2015: _/_/_

I firmly believe that these hurricane seasons follow a cycle. I also think some of us are spoiled by the active seasons we have had in recent years, but I easily expect anywhere from 12-18 named storms 4-10 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes when this season is over. "Unless" El-Nino abruptly forms by October and even then that year featured Isidore and Lili. All signs are pointing to an active season and I think some of you just need to relax and maybe go take a drink to calm the overreactions too. :P

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8429
1004. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST August 15 2013
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Utor (996 hPa) has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

system #2
--------

Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 23.0N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
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1003. LargoFl
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Uh um hmmmm...Lake Charles not interested at all...

GMZ001-160845-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N89W.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NEAR 21.4N 91.2W FRI AFTERNOON...NEAR 23.4N 92.6W SAT AFTERNOON...
REACH NEAR 25.4N 93.3W SUN AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INLAND MON NIGHT
OVER SW LOUISIANA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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Hard to believe that Erin wont become a hurricane in the heart of the season.... 92L willjust be a rain maker.. next
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Quoting 996. ncstorm:
LOL..I swear the blog sometimes..


That's why I've been lurking.
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Wave almost there.

18z Analysis

1003mb introduced on Africa,next system.
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There is a massive tropical wave over western Africa right now!!^^^^^^
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997. FOREX
Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:


Listen here jackwagon I haven't been on because I have been busy at work. Yes, I blew a forecast and I own as many on here did including the NHC. I come back and see some ying yang is trash talking go figure.



Scott, I really enjoy what you write. You and GT are my favorites.
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LOL..I swear the blog sometimes..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting LargoFl:
BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

The words in bold are the real forecast. It's still a disturbance. Nothing will happen if it can't develop a low level closed circulation. Even if it does, the low will move toward the central Gulf...not in the central Gulf. The "IF ANY" part is a good indication that the NHC is not gung-ho on this becoming much of anything.
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Quoting 979. washingtonian115:
I see this has turned into a bashing/belittle session....So let me get the hell out of here...


Just to make it clear: I didn't want to belittle you, I seriously looked up the unknown vocab, as I have to do very often as a foreigner on this blog.
Play nice everybody. Ciao.
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Quoting 976. Grothar:


Weaker system.


I'm assuming then that the models are overintensifying Erin, and that should be discounted for now.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.