Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1092. VR46L
Quoting 1075. Perfectweather23:
i pointed that out last week and i was called nuts lol


I would believe that , pointing out things like Dust , Dry air and shear is not popular on the blog ...
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Quoting 1061. Grothar:


Also, a little note. Every twenty miles or so on any Interstate, it was a private little thing that the sides me clear on both sides of the road, and completely straight, in the event military planes had to make a landing.


Ahhh, When Ike was president this country made major strides in infrastructure--which is rapidly declining because of lack of PM. Gro, nearly as ancient as you...
Steve
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Quoting 1087. Perfectweather23:
the center of circulation whats left of it is way way south in the yucatan moving wsw currently. turn on the weather channel. they will explain and show it to you


I never watch the WC....ROFLMAO
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1089. Levi32
Quoting 1077. TampaSpin:
Just SE off the tip of the Yucatan look very close is a Very Strong low level circulation it appears. Might be the dominate one if not already.



The wind at Cozumel is 140 degrees, or from the southeast. There is no circulation there.

MMCZ 152147Z 14007KT 7SM SCT015 BKN120 OVC250 23/22 A2987 RMK 8/567
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting 1080. TylerStanfield:

Funny thing about it is that this is the most activity they've dealt with in 4 years (2009). The Pacific has been lacking in activity the past several years due to the lack of instability and lack of an El Nino present.
Quoting 1080. TylerStanfield:

Funny thing about it is that this is the most activity they've dealt with in 4 years (2009). The Pacific has been lacking in activity the past several years due to the lack of instability and lack of an El Nino present.
You mean in terms of name storms right?because in terms of Hurricanes and major hurricanes it has been above average.2011 for example all the name storms were hurricanes with the exception of Fernanda.
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1086. sar2401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Uh um hmmmm...Lake Charles not interested at all...

GMZ001-160845-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N89W.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NEAR 21.4N 91.2W FRI AFTERNOON...NEAR 23.4N 92.6W SAT AFTERNOON...
REACH NEAR 25.4N 93.3W SUN AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INLAND MON NIGHT
OVER SW LOUISIANA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Wow, 21.4, 92.6 is really far south in the BOC. That track would put it due north from there to LA in the face of some pretty strong easterlies. Seems hard to imagine it can hold to this track while still trying to develop as a tropical cyclone. If it does hold to this track, it won't be able to be much more than a tropical wave.
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Quoting 1078. HurricaneAndre:
Can you someone show us the pouches.


Pouches site
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1082. LargoFl
wow..gulf water is 90 degree's by me..bay water was 91 this morning...
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Quoting 1025. TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1125 AM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST
NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

Funny thing about it is that this is the most activity they've dealt with in 4 years (2009). The Pacific has been lacking in activity the past several years due to the lack of instability and lack of an El Nino present.
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Quoting 1070. HadesGodWyvern:


The WU radar in my area has been down for maintenance for awhile.


Mine has intermittently been down here/there but when it's online lately the refresh rates have been varying anywhere from 15-45 minutes versus the usual 6 minute intervals or so.
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Can you someone show us the pouches.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Just SE off the tip of the Yucatan look very close is a Very Strong low level circulation it appears. Might be the dominate one if not already.

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Quoting 1058. flsky:


What is "letard?"
I mean lethargy.
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Quoting 1061. Grothar:


Also, a little note. Every twenty miles or so on any Interstate, it was a private little thing that the sides me clear on both sides of the road, and completely straight, in the event military planes had to make a landing.


madness, I tell you, madness!!!

never knew that..thanks Gro

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1073. VR46L
Lots of dust and dry air still ... no wonder the GFS keeps killing the storms in the central Atlantic

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1072. LargoFl
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Quoting 1027. sar2401:

I'll be happy to eat crow, but I'm simply giving my opinion. I don't have the training to be a forecaster. I still believe exactly what I wrote yesterday. It has not developed, it's not in the Central Gulf, the NHC is saying it may head toward the Central Gulf, when, and if, it develops. I actually overstated my opinion yesterday, when I thought 92L would be a TD when it made landfall. It didn't even develop that much. It still has to get by the Yucatan and develop into an actual low. I haven't read or seen anything that changes my opinion.

I do try to base my opinions on what the satellite data is showing, as well as the other tools, like ASCAT, are also showing. Models, at this point of development, are not much better than throwing darts, since anything from it never get out of the Yucatan to landfall in the Panhandles have been shown on the models. You were, as I recall, saying that you thought an eastern Florida landfall was likely. I believe that's about as likely as a meteor hitting my house. Just my opinion, as you have yours. My actual life doesn't revolve around whether my opinion here is right or wrong, so I have no problem with the idea my opinion will often be wrong, considering I'm not a professional. Anyway, I still think 92L will be forgotten a week from now. We'll know a week from now if that's correct.



Never have I said 92L would be an eastern Florida storm. That's ridiculous. I went with NHC and Louisiana, because they've been consistent with that. I just reiterated what the NHC was thinking and you made your typical meteorite comment. Please don't misquote me. Never would I say east Florida. That would be idiotic. May have said panhandle wasn't out of the question, but east Florida is a virtual impossibility. Just try and let others have their opinions without being condescending when it comes to forecasting these systems. Please go back and reread last night between us to verify I never said east Florida. That's pretty insulting in itself.
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1070. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Has anyone besides me been having issues with the WU radars not updating regularly the past few days?


The WU radar in my area has been down for maintenance for awhile.
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Tropical Storm Erin will not be a fish storm, the ridge building over the eastern US in five days or so will anchor towards the AB high and act as a bridge to keep Erin from moving too far north, once the trough over and north of Bermuda lifts out of the NW Atlantic Ocean. This will prevent Erin from moving out to sea.
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Quoting 1046. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Somebody said if we get 17 named storms it would be the highest active 4 years since record keeping began back in the 1850's?

Correct. There has yet to be a more active 4 year period, if we were to get 17+ Storms.
2010: 19 Named Storms
2011: 19 Named Storms
2012: 19 Named Storms
57 Named Storms, in a 3 year period narrowly challenged the 2003-2005 3 year period of Activity with 58 Named Storms, but because of 2006, If 2013 were to bring an Above Average or Hyperactive Season, it would top it.
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Quoting 1065. Relix:
Anyone thinks Pouch 20 has a chance to develop?
yes.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
1065. Relix
Anyone thinks Pouch 20 has a chance to develop?
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1063. LargoFl
some BAD storms up around the Jacksonville area..stay safe folks..listen to your warnings..
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Internet still off -__- posting from my grandmas lol.
What's up with Erin?
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1061. Grothar
Quoting 1033. MisterPerfect:


is that what that is called? gee, eisenhower was a mad man.


Also, a little note. Every twenty miles or so on any Interstate, it was a private little thing that the sides me clear on both sides of the road, and completely straight, in the event military planes had to make a landing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1060. flsky
Quoting 1056. Perfectweather23:
60% rain chance here since last night and havent seen even a cloud. just sunny and hot


You must be in Ponce Inlet, FL...sheesh.
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Has anyone besides me been having issues with the WU radars not updating regularly the past few days?
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1058. flsky
Quoting 1055. allancalderini:
The central pacific is waking up from its letard of three years. Nice:D


What is "letard?"
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1057. LargoFl
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Quoting 1025. TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1125 AM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST
NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$
The central pacific is waking up from its letarghy of three years. Nice:D
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Quoting 1035. SunriseSteeda:



You guys are adorable.


You wanna biscuit too? :P
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1052. Levi32
Quoting 1017. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it lacks a closed low-level circulation, like its friend to the east (90C).


Looks closed to me based on low-cloud trajectories, but it looks like the CPHC is on top of it with a high chance of formation.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1051. LargoFl
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Yeah Gt. 4-10 is a big spread lol. Jeez
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Can I get a little EGG and crow with them biscuits...
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Quoting 1044. Naga5000:


We should have a Central Florida meet up, realize how awkward it is that we decided to meet up, have a few beers in silence, then never speak of it again. :)


I've been looking for a reason to go to World of Beer in Cranes' Roost.

PM me. I'm a lot nicer in person. Promise. :)
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Quoting 1043. MississippiWx:


Omg. Is than an eye?

;-)
Duhhhh...obviously. ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Somebody said if we get 17 named storms it would be the highest active 4 years since record keeping began back in the 1850's?
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Quoting 1037. seminolesfan:


I just wanna be friends...


Sorry for any ill will implied, STS.
Seriously.


We should have a Central Florida meet up, realize how awkward it is that we decided to meet up, have a few beers in silence, then never speak of it again. :)
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Quoting 1036. MiamiHurricanes09:


Omg. Is than an eye?

;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 1006. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Numbers by the years:

1998: 14/10/3
1999: 12/8/5
2000: 15/8/3
2001: 15/9/4
2002: 12/4/2 (El-Nino)
2003: 16/7/3

2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 5/0/0
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino)
2015: _/_/_

I firmly believe that these hurricane seasons follow a cycle. I also think some of us are spoiled by the active seasons we have had in recent years, but I easily expect anywhere from 12-18 named storms 4-10 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes when this season is over. "Unless" El-Nino abruptly forms by October and even then that year featured Isidore and Lili. All signs are pointing to an active season and I think some of you just need to relax and maybe go take a drink to calm the overreactions too. :P



4-10 hurricanes is a very large range.

I'm feeling its most likely to end up being around 16/5/2
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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