Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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2442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Definitely a sleeper.

its sleeping shhhh or you will wake it up
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Quoting 2424. mikatnight:


Hi Taz,
Was at the park day before yesterday, when this gorgeous little dog came by. Very sweet and friendly, he posed and gave his best smile for me. He kinda looks ferocious at first, but I imagine he's like you - lots of teeth, but a big ball of fur!

Oh yeah, one other thing, his name is Taz!



Lol
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Quoting 2426. Kristina40:


Yes, we haven't really had a break since before 4th of July. My lawn hasn't been mowed in five weeks now. It won't be getting mowed this week either. Flooding is going to be bad if what I saw this morning is an indicator. I had to drive my Uncle to a doc appt. and it had just started pouring and the roads were already flooding and yards filling up.


Be safe this weekend, I think it's gonna be a 5-10 inch event for all of the Panhandle. Vike has been geting slammed as well
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looks like a new LLC might develop closer to the deep convection. just something to watch!
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Never turn your back on a Yucutan Seed

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@RyanMaue 14m
NCEP reporting major disk error, GFS and other models are not available from NOMADS.


Anyone know what this mean? Mets are little concern about this.
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Have you assigned a Blobcon level to it yet?


Quoting Grothar:
Repost from Aug 9.

I would keep my eye on the little feature ahead of the blob just coming off Africa.


Of course this is current image.





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Morning. Death by PowerPoint! for me today. (Inservice) I'd rather prefer outservice, but that's not my call...

92 looking OK, 93 about to get its a** kicked, and that new little disturbance will be fun to watch, I think :)
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Two big S waves coming out of Africa...

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I just wanted to post an apology to Grothar. Yesterday I had asked a question to which you had obviously posted an answer to previously. I did not mean to frustrate you! I have a very demanding four year old, so I check the boards when I can! When I finally got a chance to scroll through numerous pages, I did finally see the answer, which was stated before I posted my question again. Again, sorry! Try not to let it happen again! :)
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2431. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
nice rains down south so far

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2428. FOREX
Quoting 2418. PanhandleChuck:


Panam city? I know y'all have gotten it worse than pcola

Just had a heavy downpour in Panama City Beach like 30 minutes ago. The road I live off of floods so easily.
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Quoting 2418. PanhandleChuck:


Panam city? I know y'all have gotten it worse than pcola


Yes, we haven't really had a break since before 4th of July. My lawn hasn't been mowed in five weeks now. It won't be getting mowed this week either. Flooding is going to be bad if what I saw this morning is an indicator. I had to drive my Uncle to a doc appt. and it had just started pouring and the roads were already flooding and yards filling up.
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Well this is unfortunate

Link

Due to unfortunate server failures on 7/5/2013 NCEP had to place customers onto a new NOMADS server that has yet to be optimized. We realize that users have been impacted by this in numerous ways. As we spend the next few weeks tuning the server it will be very helpful if you notify us of any issues that are not within your normal tolerance. Please include the syntax and errors you are seeing to ncep.pmb.dataflow@noaa.gov
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Quoting 2401. Tazmanian:




I no lol


Hi Taz,
Was at the park day before yesterday, when this gorgeous little dog came by. Very sweet and friendly, he posed and gave his best smile for me. He kinda looks ferocious at first, but I imagine he's like you - lots of teeth, but a big ball of fur!

Oh yeah, one other thing, his name is Taz!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am curious, a lot of the convection associated with 92L is moving towards Fl. Why, if 92L develops would it not go the same direction? Will conditions change that are steering so much this way? Thank You for help in understanding why the direction that the convection is trending is not the same direction the system would take?
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Quoting 2358. RitaEvac:
Finally a LLC, but......stick a fork in it



I think it looks dandy for having crossed hundreds of miles of land. Still nice and round, heading into warm, tranquil waters...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 2394. 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Well glad I got the lawn mowed, picked up another 2 inches of rain this morning in Soggy NW Florida. 80% chance of rain today and tomorrow but just maybe we'll luck out if 92L goes West. Just might be a Texas drought buster after all!



Let me be the first to say we Texans will gladly take it off your hands. :) If 92 jogged to the N/NE I think any anti-cyclonic rotation would be lost to the backward steering current making a ragged mess of a storm. In which case I think you guys in FL would be dealing with an elongated type storm with a couple of days of training-type storms. Messy situation. At any rate speaking of a mess, lets talk about my lawn lol.
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Quoting 2391. mikatnight:


I think it's the owner of the Old Key Lime House who runs the forcefield. The place is a money-making machine! Rain is the only inhibitor to maximum profits, so...

BTW, I'm trying to talk him into installing a PWS at the establishment. It's a perfect location right on the Intracoastal, and there's no other stations that close to the coast in this area. I haven't noticed any PWS's installed at businesses. There's not a rule against that, is there?


Can you blame him. I mean really, it's one of the best outdoor restaurants ever! Good food and incredible views! How did he handle Frances, Jeanne and Wlma I wonder?
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2419. Grothar
Repost from Aug 9.

I would keep my eye on the little feature ahead of the blob just coming off Africa.


Of course this is current image.





Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting 2414. Kristina40:
It's pouring here in PC. The neighbor's yard and some of the streets are already going under. This is not going to be good.


Panam city? I know y'all have gotten it worse than pcola
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Actually 2 storms here in which Erin is heading that dissipated without actually recurving, I think Erin is poised to suffer the same fate.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2409. Skyepony:
This wave hit Sudan hard..



Flash Flood in Sudan on Friday, 16 August, 2013 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
At least 53 people were killed and 77 others injured after heavy rains and floods hit most part of Sudan, a minister said Thursday. A total of 40,578 families were affected and 20,027 houses were completely damaged nationwide,reported the Interior Minister Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid. Hamid said over 3,000 livestock also perished in the rains and floods. He added that the Nile river level at Mugran station in Khartoum registered 17.4 metres, reiterating that the situation was under control. The Sudanese Meteorological Authority has forecast more heavy rains in the coming two days and citizens have been advised to take measures against possible accidents.
We all anticipate the lows that roll off the African coast, but your reports are the first I've seen on this blog about the damage the systems do before they get into the Atlantic. Important to remember this.
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Quoting 2379. kmanislander:


It started to take shape last night and continues to do so today. Very low shear all the way to the Caribbean as well. Could become a problem if this rate of organization continues as banding is starting to show as well.



And it's very small. I will definently watch this one
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It's pouring here in PC. The neighbor's yard and some of the streets are already going under. This is not going to be good.
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Quoting mikatnight:


I think it's the owner of the Old Key Lime House who runs the forcefield. The place is a money-making machine! Rain is the only inhibitor to maximum profits, so...

BTW, I'm trying to talk him into installing a PWS at the establishment. It's a perfect location right on the Intracoastal, and there's no other stations that close to the coast in this area. I haven't noticed any PWS's installed at businesses. There's not a rule against that, is there?


Have you read this?
Link
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Surprise..... it's gonna rain here again today. What a horrible summer.
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.
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2410. scott39
Currently, 92L is fighting only a small amount of unfavorable wind shear. Once further out in the GOM,developement should occur. D-Max would have been more kind to it, than coming off the Yucatan into D-MIN. The next D-MAX should be interesting concerning 92L.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2409. Skyepony (Mod)
This wave hit Sudan hard..



Flash Flood in Sudan on Friday, 16 August, 2013 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
At least 53 people were killed and 77 others injured after heavy rains and floods hit most part of Sudan, a minister said Thursday. A total of 40,578 families were affected and 20,027 houses were completely damaged nationwide,reported the Interior Minister Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid. Hamid said over 3,000 livestock also perished in the rains and floods. He added that the Nile river level at Mugran station in Khartoum registered 17.4 metres, reiterating that the situation was under control. The Sudanese Meteorological Authority has forecast more heavy rains in the coming two days and citizens have been advised to take measures against possible accidents.
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Link
struggling....
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Quoting 2395. allancalderini:
Could this one reach the windwards instead of the leewards?
Up to now moving W, and not classified yet as an Invest....
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Here's what I see:-


1.) 92L has a naked LLC off the north coast of the Yucatan that has about 36 hours to wrap some moisture around itself and develop. If it cannot do so in that time frame, it will not have enough organization to partially fight off the shear it's running straight into. It certainly has a shot at developing into Fernando, but probably wont be anything more than a weak TS.

2.) What I'm calling "The Little Wave That Could" or that little wave out ahead and south of Erin just keeps looking better and better. I first pointed this out about 3 days ago as a potential "sneaker" storm. I mentioned that if it skirted just North of the Leeward Islands, it would struggle quite a bit in the long run...But if it dipped just south or through the center of the islands - It could very well have a good chance of developing in the Caribbean.

As of yesterday, it's been looking more and more like the wave will indeed dip south of the islands and has largely managed to avoid the wall of dry air directly above it. This system should be upgraded to either 94L or 95L in the next few days, and I think models will start picking up on this one pretty soon.

3.) Erin is pretty ragged right now, but still has enough organization to say it should strengthen a bit today and re-fire some convection now that the shear over the system is weakening. But it's really only got a day or two left to strengthen before it smashes into the wall of dry air ahead of it.

4.) The huge wave coming off Africa will likely become 94L the second it has fully cleared Africa. This system will undoubtedly be named at some point...

Whether it becomes Fernando, Gabrielle or Even Humberto completely depends on when and if 92L and the "Little Wave That Could" develop.

5.) The next 3 or 4 days could be very interesting in the Atlantic, if everything plays out JUST RIGHT...we could have 4 named storms at the same time in the Atlantic...that would be remarkable! Chances of it happening though, are quite low.
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Quoting 2383. Tazmanian:

That looks more like a TD or low end TS right now the NYC needs too wake up!

Hmmm how did NYC get in there oops I ment too say nhc


Taz, my buddy, you made a funny! :) Good one! :)

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Quoting 2394. 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Well glad I got the lawn mowed, picked up another 2 inches of rain this morning in Soggy NW Florida. 80% chance of rain today and tomorrow but just maybe we'll luck out if 92L goes West. Just might be a Texas drought buster after all!

At this rate I'm hoping that it at least carves a dent in their drought and a weak tropical storm, since I busted on my forecast of a northeastern Gulf landfall of a moderate tropical storm.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2396. islander101010:
a few days ago didnt the gfdl have 92 near the texas coast and it was quite strong


Yea, and I was saying PFFFT! and still am
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2402. Walshy
Quoting kmanislander:


It started to take shape last night and continues to do so today. Very low shear all the way to the Caribbean as well. Could become a problem if this rate of organization continues as banding is starting to show as well.



hmm...
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Quoting 2390. scott39:
I know, I was just messing with you:)




I no lol
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erin might follow soon the be 94
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Quoting 2389. StormPro:


And we are sending it your way buddy! LOL Good morning all.


That's right we're sending it to NOLA
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2397. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 2391. mikatnight:


I think it's the owner of the Old Key Lime House who runs the forcefield. The place is a money-making machine! Rain is the only inhibitor to maximum profits, so...

BTW, I'm trying to talk him into installing a PWS at the establishment. It's a perfect location right on the Intracoastal, and there's no other stations that close to the coast in this area. I haven't noticed any PWS's installed at businesses. There's not a rule against that, is there?

Not at all. I've seen some streaming both data & webcam from restaurants on WU. WU has one on top of their building of business too.
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a few days ago didnt the gfdl have 92 near the texas coast and it was quite strong
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Quoting 2385. sunlinepr:
Active wave reaching SA

Quoting 2385. sunlinepr:
Active wave reaching SA

Could this one reach the windwards instead of the leewards?
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Good morning everyone! Well glad I got the lawn mowed, picked up another 2 inches of rain this morning in Soggy NW Florida. 80% chance of rain today and tomorrow but just maybe we'll luck out if 92L goes West. Just might be a Texas drought buster after all!

Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3123
This wave east of Trinidad, should be clasified as an Invest....
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Looking at Erin on Atlantic satellite zoomed in I can see Erin appears to be now moving W I can not confirm this yet as the new image on floater does not come in for another 3 hrs or less
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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