Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1132. MiamiHurricanes09:
925mb vorticity maximum is located along the northern Yucatan coast.



Yeah, there is a fast spinning area of low level clouds right at the tip of the Yucatan, just barely onshore.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1141. barbamz
Trulia releases wildfire, hurricane and tornado hazard maps
Databases of past events tapped to help visualize potential for disaster
Inman News Aug 15, 2013

Consumers shopping for homes on Trulia have three new color-coded interactive map features to help them get a feel for the potential for wildfires, hurricanes, tropical storms or tornadoes in U.S. cities in the lower 48 states.

The three new hazard maps join two others — flood and earthquake — that Trulia released in May and are designed to help consumers and their agents “to better visualize what a place is like,” said Peter Black, Trulia’s lead geospatial engineer, who led the team of the three that designed the maps.

“After Hurricane Sandy hit we felt a personal connection and we decided to go through with the plan to build these maps,” Black told Inman News at Trulia headquarters in San Francisco Wednesday during a demo of the new hazard maps. ...


See more at link above. Yaawwn, this was really my utter most lastest post for tonight, lol ....
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Banana Ridge. :D

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1138. IKE
From Tallahassee.....

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Multiple factors are coming together to enhance the potential for
very heavy rainfall over the next 72 hours.
An anomalously deep
500mb trough is forecast to develop over the Mississippi River
Valley during the next 24 hours, and remain relatively stationary
through the weekend. A very strong 250mb jet will be rotating
around the trough during this time-frame, placing much of the
forecast area in the favored right entrance region. At the
surface, a stationary (but well-defined) back-door front is
situated across central Georgia. This boundary is forecast to
remain in place through Saturday, providing additional focus for
lift. Finally, deep tropical moisture, associated with the
tropical disturbance over the Yucatan, will begin to pour into the
region on Friday, with PWATs pushing 2.5 inches into Saturday.
While the chances for significant tropical development of the
disturbance have lessened, the impact of the moisture will be just
the same.

Hi-res guidance is in pretty good agreement with the overall
evolution of the event. A band of heavy rainfall is expected to
develop Friday morning, stretching from near Apalachicola into the
southeastern Big Bend. By late Friday through Saturday, the
heavier band of rain is expected to shift towards the Florida
Panhandle into southeast Alabama. An additional corridor of heavy
rain is expected across central Georgia, near the stationary
front. Uncertainty remains as to whether or not this heavy QPF
band ends of in the TAE of FFC forecast areas. Additional
information regarding the expected QPF and Flood Watch can be
found in the hydrology section below.

With all of the rain expected through Saturday, high temps should
remain in the 80s for most locations. Although not explicitly
forecast, highs in the 70s will be possible for portions of south
central Georgia if the frontal boundary were to sag farther south
than expected.
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Quoting 1127. Tazmanian:

15/1745 UTC 18.8N 87.5W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic


may be 92L is not overe land after all


Taz, that was 4-5 hours ago.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 1100. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's worth repeating what Levi said in his video this evening. The tropical Atlantic is not drier than average. Total precipitable water anomalies across the region are above-average and forecast to remain that way. The issue lies in the fact that the air is more stable than normal, which is a direct byproduct of us seeing stronger ridging across the open Atlantic this season.


In your opinion which was one is worse for tropical cyclones dry air or stable air?
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Quoting 1132. MiamiHurricanes09:
925mb vorticity maximum is located along the northern Yucatan coast.



Bingo
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Quoting 1117. MississippiWx:


Fact is there is an elongated surface trough and low pressure could consolidate anywhere along the axis, if one ever consolidates.


I think it is the one near where the latest convection is firing around the Central Yucatan. He pointed out the one way down there in Belize which I think is incorrect.
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925mb vorticity maximum is located along the northern Yucatan coast.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1131. Dakster
Quoting 1120. sar2401:

LOL. I never did get an answer (or at least I never saw it, with the blog moving at rocket speeds), how did they get the name pouches? Were these things actually put in pouches at one point or what?

As far as 92L, who knows? My opinion is that it may become a TD and will make second landfall in Mexico. I don't think it's going to make it into the eastern Gulf, but it sure ain't gonna do nothin' until a low actually develops, and we haven't seen that yet.


I can't answer the first question.

Your thoughts are as good as anyone else's at this point. I won't take my eyes off it either. Since a watched storm never comes.
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Quoting 1125. Ameister12:
Quite the train in the Central Pacific this evening. I haven't seen activity like this in the CPac is a while.
Would be cool that the 0% explode so the last name in the 3rd set can be used.Triplets would be cool specially one near each other.
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If all we would get would be the dry, windy side I hope it stays far away from here.

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15/1745 UTC 18.8N 87.5W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic


may be 92L is not overe land after all
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Quite the train in the Central Pacific this evening. I haven't seen activity like this in the CPac in a while.
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1124. Relix
I hate that ridge breaking now... we could have had a few fun days tracking Erin but noooo, the almighty ridge breaks up :P
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Amateur Radio Operators on the blog?

Asked this question a few times over the years--anybody?

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1122. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)



That would be up to their government


oh, ya. also those warnings were discontinued by their government early this afternoon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46522
Broad 1008 mb. low behind Erin, may take awhile to get going due to its sheer size.

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1120. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


It's a family blog... So not really.

--

Is our little BOC storm going fall apart or develop?

LOL. I never did get an answer (or at least I never saw it, with the blog moving at rocket speeds), how did they get the name pouches? Were these things actually put in pouches at one point or what?

As far as 92L, who knows? My opinion is that it may become a TD and will make second landfall in Mexico. I don't think it's going to make it into the eastern Gulf, but it sure ain't gonna do nothin' until a low actually develops, and we haven't seen that yet.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16952
1119. VR46L
Quoting 1102. Perfectweather23:
i know its bot but its the real truth, and i think people show hear facts and not wishcasting, dont you agree. and in all honesty i have been very accurate this season


4 out of the 5 have been very weak affairs and the other too soon to judge.. Really not seeing the worst season ever ... especially now the A/B high is busted ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6966
Quoting 1100. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's worth repeating what Levi said in his video this evening. The tropical Atlantic is not drier than average. Total precipitable water anomalies across the region are above-average and forecast to remain that way. The issue lies in the fact that the air is more stable than normal, which is a direct byproduct of us seeing stronger ridging across the open Atlantic this season.


once that high weakens, the train will start rolling
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Quoting 1089. Levi32:


The wind at Cozumel is 140 degrees, or from the southeast. There is no circulation there.

MMCZ 152147Z 14007KT 7SM SCT015 BKN120 OVC250 23/22 A2987 RMK 8/567


Fact is there is an elongated surface trough and low pressure could consolidate anywhere along the axis, if one ever consolidates.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1115. Grothar
Quoting 1091. panamasteve:


Ahhh, When Ike was president this country made major strides in infrastructure--which is rapidly declining because of lack of PM. Gro, nearly as ancient as you...
Steve


I worked on his first campaign.
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Quoting 1097. washingtonian115:
Why hasn't there been any warnings for the cape verde islands?.


That would be up to their government
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1113. cg2916
I saw yesterday where someone had posted model verification statistics for 92L. Where can I find that info?
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Quoting 1089. Levi32:


The wind at Cozumel is 140 degrees, or from the southeast. There is no circulation there.

MMCZ 152147Z 14007KT 7SM SCT015 BKN120 OVC250 23/22 A2987 RMK 8/567


it might not be completely to the surface but use this site zoom in an loop it fast....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.h tml
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Quoting 1101. MisterPerfect:
anybody remember this?

I do.



Old NHC. US 1
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Keep up the good work guys on not quoting the trolls.
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Quoting 1099. Bluestorm5:
I'm back from my grand adventure in Pisgah Forest the past 5 days and I'm back chilling at my dorm now. Crazy I'm officially a college student now... also, I see we got Tropical Storm Erin. I got lot to do the next few hours on campus and I'll try to get a blog up on my adventure the last few days either tonight or tomorrow night. The next few days will be busy for me so I'll try my best to jump in and track Erin with y'all... but first, I need a shower!


Now that's a dedicated blogger - blogging before bathing :P
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1819
1107. Grothar
Quoting 1101. MisterPerfect:
anybody remember this?

I do.



The old FIU where the NHC used to be. Where'd you find that? Brings back the old days.
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1106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Why hasn't there been any warnings for the cape verde islands?.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...ERIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46522
1105. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
wow..gulf water is 90 degree's by me..bay water was 91 this morning...

The whole Gulf has warmed back up nicely. Too bad the Tampa Bay area has such crummy dive spots - 90 degree water is very pleasant for diving. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16952
1104. Dakster
Quoting 1078. HurricaneAndre:
Can you someone show us the pouches.


It's a family blog... So not really.

--

Is our little BOC storm going fall apart or develop?
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1103. LargoFl
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anybody remember this?

I do.

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I think it's worth repeating what Levi said in his video this evening. The tropical Atlantic is not drier than average. Total precipitable water anomalies across the region are above-average and forecast to remain that way. The issue lies in the fact that the air is more stable than normal, which is a direct byproduct of us seeing stronger ridging across the open Atlantic this season.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
I'm back from my grand adventure in Pisgah Forest the past 5 days and I'm back chilling at my dorm now. Crazy I'm officially a college student now... also, I see we got Tropical Storm Erin. I got lot to do the next few hours on campus and I'll try to get a blog up on my adventure the last few days either tonight or tomorrow night. The next few days will be busy for me so I'll try my best to jump in and track Erin with y'all... but first, I need a shower!
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Quoting 1071. Tribucanes:



Never have I said 92L would be an eastern Florida storm. That's ridiculous. I went with NHC and Louisiana, because they've been consistent with that. I just reiterated what the NHC was thinking and you made your typical meteorite comment. Please don't misquote me. Never would I say east Florida. That would be idiotic. May have said panhandle wasn't out of the question, but east Florida is a virtual impossibility. Just try and let others have their opinions without being condescending when it comes to forecasting these systems. Please go back and reread last night between us to verify I never said east Florida. That's pretty insulting in itself.


Did you say east Florida? :)
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Why hasn't there been any warnings for the cape verde islands?.
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Quoting 1085. yoboi:


I have been to their office a few times.....they are really laid back bunch.....


:) Yeah well they could be right. Still up in the air.
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We'll see about the recurve pattern, but the Bermuda High has been severely underestimated by the models so far this season as evident by Chantal and Dorian.

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1093. LargoFl
marine forecast for tomorrow,tampa bay area...
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1092. VR46L
Quoting 1075. Perfectweather23:
i pointed that out last week and i was called nuts lol


I would believe that , pointing out things like Dust , Dry air and shear is not popular on the blog ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6966

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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