Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Is it not past some peoples bed time....GEESH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1186. washingtonian115:
Thirdly as levi and many others have stated..The Atlantic has been more stable than normal.I always back up my forecast.Don't get that twisted.

I don't think we'll see that verify (Igor like storm) because of sst and moisture levels that are absent this year.We are not at 2010 levels in the central/eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 1188. Levi32:


They aren't the same, but are closely linked. Stable air creates dry air because a stable air layer sinks and dries. My point was that although the eastern north Atlanic is always dry in an absolute sense, it is currently not drier than normal, but it is more stable than normal due to high pressure there. If Erin had formed in this location in 2010 or 2012, I wager she would have become a hurricane. Right now she probably won't.
Thank you.Right on time.
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Quoting 1186. washingtonian115:
Thirdly as levi and many others have stated..The Atlantic has been more stable than normal.I always back up my forecast.Don't get that twisted.

I don't think we'll see that verify (Igor like storm) because of sst and moisture levels that are absent this year.We are not at 2010 levels in the central/eastern Atlantic.

2010 had the highest sea surface temperatures in the East Atlantic ever observed. We can get Category 5s with far less.

I get what you're saying about the stable air though. We'll see how everything turns out.
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1189. Dakster
Quoting 1184. daddyjames:


Washi you make a very valid point, the slug of colder water and stability in the atmosphere in that region are not going to allow for much intensification.

Don't let others bait you.


There are some people on the blog that a really good at baiting people. You might call them Masters of the game.

Yep. Master Baiters....

Washi - You answered me with why you thought it wouldn't happen. Makes sense to me - you even put in an escape clause with it being too soon to tell.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9698
1188. Levi32
Quoting 1160. MiamiHurricanes09:
They're the same thing.

Unless Levi would like the clarify.


They aren't the same, but are closely linked. Stable air creates dry air because a stable air layer sinks, which compresses it and dries it. My point was that although the eastern north Atlanic is always dry in an absolute sense, it is currently not drier than normal, but it is more stable than normal due to high pressure there. If Erin had formed in this location in 2010 or 2012, I wager she would have become a hurricane. Right now she probably won't.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1187. IKE

Quoting muddertracker:


At least its not in all caps. lol
He/she never uses caps. Not the original.
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Thirdly as levi and many others have stated..The Atlantic has been more stable than normal.I always back up my forecast.Don't get that twisted.

I don't think we'll see that verify (Igor like storm) because of sst and moisture levels that are absent this year.We are not at 2010 levels in the central/eastern Atlantic.
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/
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Quoting 1174. washingtonian115:
Both of you all are wrong.I didn't even have a damn chance to defend myself.Please don't put me in the same camp as him.Second when did you see me agreeing with him?.


Washi you make a very valid point, the slug of colder water and stability in the atmosphere in that region are not going to allow for much intensification.

Don't let others bait you.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1183. IKE

Quoting panamasteve:


If I find a supply of gopher wood, I'll send some your way IKE...
Right up 331...
It's raining here now. Had 1.06 yesterday. Looks like around a third of an inch so far today. Flash flood watch. Several inches of rain this weekend. Will it ever end? lol
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Starting to get out of range, but watch as the Ridge builds back in after Erin departs. Or I should say what is left of Erin.

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I believe a LLC is forming at 20.5N 87.5W......sorry to disagree with anyone!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flas h-swir-short.html
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1179. nash36
Yeah I know Ike. Was trying really hard to take the righteous path.

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1178. sar2401
Quoting Perfectweather23:
pacific is on fire and cool to watch today i put 11 of those people on my serve crow to list.

Just my opinion, but I happen to one of the people who've thought 92L, if was going to do anything, would get into the BOC and make second landfall in Mexico. I'm just a weather guesser, like the vast majority of people here and, if there are decent models, I'll go with them 99% of the time. The one thing I try not to do is make this a competition. On the rare times I'm right, I try not to "crow" (pun intended) about it, since I'm very likely to be wrong with my next guess. Everyone is entitled to their guess, as long as it's clearly not trollish or completely nuts. This is a form of recreation to me, kind of like a baseball game. If my team wins, I feel happy about it, but I don't kid myself that me yelling from stands did anything to help. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting 1163. IKE:
Oh jeez.........




If I find a supply of gopher wood, I'll send some your way IKE...
Right up 331...
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Quoting 1147. Joanie38:
Hello everyone!! Been lurking for awhile...IMO, I really don't think 92L is ever gonna develop into anything really. I live near Lake Charles, weather people here think the same thing...any thoughts?? :)


Hi Joanie. Just hearing what you are in SE TX.
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1175. IKE

Quoting nash36:


Oh please!!!

"Dry air maps for two to three months..."

That is laughable at best!!!

Geez.
I bet he's/she's from NO. Writing like stormtop.

Sorry for being off-topic on here. Best to just ignore and move on.
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Quoting 1168. nash36:


Oh please!!!

"Dry air maps for two to three months..."

That is laughable at best!!!

Geez.
Quoting 1169. MiamiHurricanes09:
Problem is, she isn't backing up your forecast with absolutely nothing other than an uneducated and premature opinion.
Quoting 1171. Hurricanes101:


so does that mean you and washi will not be here during that time or are you just going to keep reminding us every day?
Both of you all are wrong.I didn't even have a damn chance to defend myself.Please don't put me in the same camp as him.Second when did you see me agreeing with him?.
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1173. LargoFl
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Quoting 1164. Perfectweather23:
very good ... at least someone has noticed and looked at the ridge maps and dry air maps for the next 2 to 3 months... i couldnt agree with you any more. thanks for backing up my forcast


so does that mean you and washi will not be here during that time or are you just going to keep reminding us every day?
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Quoting 1154. MiamiHurricanes09:
On absolutely no basis.
Uh cha'yah there is..sst are not as high in 2010..we had the healthy waves but there missing something this year.
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Quoting 1164. Perfectweather23:
very good ... at least someone has noticed and looked at the ridge maps and dry air maps for the next 2 to 3 months... i couldnt agree with you any more. thanks for backing up my forcast
Problem is, she isn't backing up your forecast with absolutely nothing other than an uneducated and premature opinion.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1168. nash36
Quoting 1164. Perfectweather23:
very good ... at least someone has noticed and looked at the ridge maps and dry air maps for the next 2 to 3 months... i couldnt agree with you any more. thanks for backing up my forcast


Oh please!!!

"Dry air maps for two to three months..."

That is laughable at best!!!

Geez.
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1167. Dakster
Quoting 1162. Grothar:


I discussed this at length the other night while you were. Pay attention. I won't go through it again, but take an excerpt from the National Science Foundation article published in the American Meteorological Society


The model emphasizes the importance of a Lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical-wave critical layer (the so-called pouch), where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis. Distinct scenarios of hybrid wave–vortex evolution are highlighted. It was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop. Although not all waves with a deep pouch developed into a tropical storm, a deep wave pouch had formed prior to genesis for all 16 named storms originating from monochromatic easterly waves during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. On the other hand, the diagnosis of two nondeveloping waves with a deep pouch suggests that strong vertical shear or dry air intrusion at the middle–upper levels (where a wave pouch was absent) can disrupt deep convection and suppress storm development.


I knew I could count on you to explain it.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9698
1166. Grothar
Quoting 1153. sar2401:

Ha! I worked on the Truman campaign. Of course, I was only two at the time, but I did spit up on some Dewey campaign posters. I never did like that guy's mustache. :-)


If I had said Truman, you probably would have said Roosevelt.
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This is a nice view and puts things in perspective. :D

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1163. IKE
Oh jeez.........


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1162. Grothar
Quoting 1120. sar2401:

LOL. I never did get an answer (or at least I never saw it, with the blog moving at rocket speeds), how did they get the name pouches? Were these things actually put in pouches at one point or what?

As far as 92L, who knows? My opinion is that it may become a TD and will make second landfall in Mexico. I don't think it's going to make it into the eastern Gulf, but it sure ain't gonna do nothin' until a low actually develops, and we haven't seen that yet.


I discussed this at length the other night while you were. Pay attention. I won't go through it again, but take an excerpt from the National Science Foundation article published in the American Meteorological Society


The model emphasizes the importance of a Lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical-wave critical layer (the so-called pouch), where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis. Distinct scenarios of hybrid wave–vortex evolution are highlighted. It was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop. Although not all waves with a deep pouch developed into a tropical storm, a deep wave pouch had formed prior to genesis for all 16 named storms originating from monochromatic easterly waves during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. On the other hand, the diagnosis of two nondeveloping waves with a deep pouch suggests that strong vertical shear or dry air intrusion at the middle–upper levels (where a wave pouch was absent) can disrupt deep convection and suppress storm development.
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1161. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
558 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FLC031-089-109-152230-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-130815T2230Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-NASSAU FL-
558 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN NASSAU...EASTERN DUVAL AND EXTREME NORTHERN ST. JOHNS
COUNTIES...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND TO
BAYMEADOWS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNF...
TALBOT ISLAND...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...MAYPORT...SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE
BEACH...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...PALM VALLEY AND
SAWGRASS.
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Quoting 1136. allancalderini:
In your opinion which was one is worse for tropical cyclones dry air or stable air?
They're the same thing.

Unless Levi would like the clarify.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting 1077. TampaSpin:
Just SE off the tip of the Yucatan look very close is a Very Strong low level circulation it appears. Might be the dominate one if not already.



And it might actually shoot the gap. Though since it's in the situation it is right now, I don't think it would make much difference if it had made the land crossing. It wouldn't have much ground to lose if this potential swirl went over the Yucatan or not.
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1158. LargoFl
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Quoting 1151. Dakster:
Why do you say that Washi??
Igor was near or was a cat 5 in the eastern Atlantic.The sst are not as high as well where as in 2010 we saw record levels.
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1155. LargoFl
Quoting 1115. Grothar:


I worked on his first campaign.
"I like Ike"...I remember that too
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Quoting 1144. washingtonian115:
I know it's to early to judge..but I highly doubt we see something like this in the eastern atlantic this year.
On absolutely no basis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1153. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I worked on his first campaign.

Ha! I worked on the Truman campaign. Of course, I was only two at the time, but I did spit up on some Dewey campaign posters. I never did like that guy's mustache. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting 1142. MississippiWx:


Yeah, there is a fast spinning area of low level clouds right at the tip of the Yucatan, just barely onshore.


All I know that when you speed up that loop I posted....there are an lot of low level clouds spinning around something.
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1151. Dakster
Why do you say that Washi??
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9698
Quoting 1134. louisianaboy444:


I think it is the one near where the latest convection is firing around the Central Yucatan. He pointed out the one way down there in Belize which I think is incorrect.


It's possible, although those thunderstorms that fired over that spin are now moving to the SSE. Could be jut a vort max spinning around an area of low pressure. As MH09 just posted, the 925mb vort is located on the Northern tip of the Yuc.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
1148. SLU
Quoting 1100. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's worth repeating what Levi said in his video this evening. The tropical Atlantic is not drier than average. Total precipitable water anomalies across the region are above-average and forecast to remain that way. The issue lies in the fact that the air is more stable than normal, which is a direct byproduct of us seeing stronger ridging across the open Atlantic this season.





Hmmmm ...

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Hello everyone!! Been lurking for awhile...IMO, I really don't think 92L is ever gonna develop into anything really. I live near Lake Charles, weather people here think the same thing...any thoughts?? :)
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1146. WxLogic
Quoting 1132. MiamiHurricanes09:
925mb vorticity maximum is located along the northern Yucatan coast.



Is associated to the ULL:



I won't be surprised that the disturbance would merge with the ULL and become a cold core system, then at some point in its live it would re-acquire tropical characteristics and attempt to develop once more... just a little theory I've been thinking about lately.
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1145. VR46L
Quoting 1121. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Broad 1008 mb. low behind Erin, may take awhile to get going due to its sheer size.



Bet It fishes or chokes !
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I know it's to early to judge..but I highly doubt we see something like this in the eastern atlantic this year.
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We will probably have 94L late tonight.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
Quoting 1132. MiamiHurricanes09:
925mb vorticity maximum is located along the northern Yucatan coast.



Yeah, there is a fast spinning area of low level clouds right at the tip of the Yucatan, just barely onshore.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.