Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1292. Patrap
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
...Hello dere, welcome to the Hurricane Party !!!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1291. hurricanes2018
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
tropical storm erin is hit very dry air now because it moving wnw right into the dry air!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100832
1290. RTSplayer
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Well, I just made a new blog about the discovery of some possibly better options available to me at SLU, namely that they offer Differential Equations and Linear Algebra as being broken down into a series of 4 courses, which can in principle be spread over as much as 4 semesters, gaining 12 credits, whereas LSU had it all in one course in one semester for 5 credits...and I can assure you the pace was brutal and only about 10% of students in that class passed, and I wasn't one of them.

This discovery opens up options to me I long thought not possible, because if I can get past that block of courses, I KNOW I can pass all the other courses in a math major.

If you want to see more, read my blog.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1289. Camille33
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
wow look at 40 w!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
1288. StAugSurf
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1276. Grothar:


If that doesn't deserve a "twit" nothing does. I've wanted to use that word all day, but I couldn't. But with you I know it's safe. There, I've said it again.

"Twit"-great word!
Member Since: July 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1287. daddyjames
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1276. Grothar:


If that doesn't deserve a "twit" nothing does. I've wanted to use that word all day, but I couldn't. But with you I know it's safe. There, I've said it again.


Isn't a twit a sarcastic tweet?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1286. sar2401
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting metteacher:

And the list keeps growing....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17037
1285. LargoFl
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1283. sar2401:

That means 925mb atmospheric height, not 925 at the surface. That would be one heck of low indeed!
oh ty for that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41834
1284. TheDawnAwakening
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Nothing but monsoonal lows take forever to organize, even areas of disorganized clouds and storms can organize fairly quickly with any type of vorticity in the low levels. Shear axis with the upper level low south of Bermuda is moving northward with it as the newest NW Atlantic Ocean trough moves northeastward and gets replaced by ridging. That's why Erin is not going out to sea.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
1283. sar2401
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
925 MB..thats pretty deep isn't it?..

That means 925mb atmospheric height, not 925 at the surface. That would be one heck of low indeed!
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17037
1281. Grothar
11:05 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1272. LAbonbon:


Thanks. Got Youtube playing it now (Sam Cooke)


Play the Vaughn Monroe version.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
1280. TampaSpin
11:05 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Time for RAYS Game....GO RAYS! STOP YOUR DANG FIGHTING KIDS!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1279. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Some people like to take the GFS (most likely the trolls) as gospel and ignore all else. Now that is biased forecasting at its best. Don't take those users seriously.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1278. Patrap
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1276. Grothar
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1270. GeoffreyWPB:


Well I missed the first time you said it. What is that song named again?


If that doesn't deserve a "twit" nothing does. I've wanted to use that word all day, but I couldn't. But with you I know it's safe. There, I've said it again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
1275. GeoffreyWPB
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11518
1274. weatherman994
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
If i wouldn't get in trouble i cuss this cane season OUT!
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1272. LAbonbon
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1262. daddyjames:


"There I've SAid It Again" numerous artists have performed it.


Thanks. Got Youtube playing it now (Sam Cooke)
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1833
1270. GeoffreyWPB
11:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1260. Grothar:


There, I've said it again.


Well I missed the first time you said it. What is that song named again?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11518
1268. Grothar
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
1267. IKE
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Quoting TampaSpin:


Little rain heading toward ya brother..WOW
Don't need any.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1266. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Not seeing many signs of a low pressure over Belize now like I was when I got home from school. The one over the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula seems to have taken over...and with it being stronger anyways, that should've been expected.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
1265. SuperStorm093
11:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1257. Patrap:
It will not organize, it is just an elongated wave. IT would take FOREVER to organize.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
1264. LurknLearn
11:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1248. metteacher:
heck its gone on for months now.But i must say: he/she/it, has made some valid points. i have also put him on ignore back in june, but people quoting him i can still see. He/she/it has been kinda right so far.

Member Since: August 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

Hmmm ?
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
1263. TheDawnAwakening
11:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1250. Camille33:
I hope you see this 40 w new wave going to become invest soon


its trapped within the ITCZ, the vorticity associated with it is associated with the trof now and has become elongated. Its in fact weakened. The convection being produced is due to the natural convergence between the northeast trades above 10N and southeast trades below 5N. I don't think a surface circulation is developing quite yet so therefore no invest status will be given.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
1262. daddyjames
11:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1245. LAbonbon:


Help us out here. I've been trying to figure it out-what song?


"There I've SAid It Again" numerous artists have performed it.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1261. TampaSpin
10:59 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
here is a good floater Ramsdis.......its following what it thinks I guess...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_ 1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=4 80&number_of_images_to_display=12
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1260. Grothar
10:59 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1245. LAbonbon:


Help us out here. I've been trying to figure it out-what song?


There, I've said it again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
1258. CybrTeddy
10:59 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Quoting 1219. Levi32:
If you're looking for something interesting to watch with 92L, look for any increases in low-level organization over land today. Yes, I said over land. Although deepening rarely occurs over land, sometimes the circulation can become better organized, especially when the land is flat, like the Yucatan. We saw it with Barry in June. Since convection has been east of 92L's wave axis, as it moved inland this morning, solar heating has been almost normal over the Yucatan under clear skies, and the resulting afternoon convection could potentially do interesting things to 92L's low-level structure.


More noticeably, we saw the CoC's of both Alex and Karl really tighten up over the Yucatan as well. Not a lot of mountains to tear anything up either.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
1257. Patrap
10:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1256. GTstormChaserCaleb
10:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1250. Camille33:
I hope you see this 40 w new wave e going to become invest soon
The CMC and NAVGEM seem to like it, you know the other reliable models? Not named the GFS.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1255. SuperStorm093
10:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1250. Camille33:
I hope you see this 40 w new wave going to become invest soon
No, just no. So how did your 70kt storm hitting the yucatan go lol.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
1254. Grothar
10:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
I know nuuuuuuthing!


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
1253. MississippiWx
10:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
92L is actually starting to look a little like a tropical cyclone.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1252. GTstormChaserCaleb
10:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 1241. LAbonbon:


Caleb, I've got a lot of respect for you, but you need to take your own advice...
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1251. Patrap
10:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
The Blogs started in 2005, April to be zact.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
I hope you see this 40 w new wave e going to become invest soon
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
1249. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41834
I think a lot of banter on this blog which can be very informative at times, even during the times of StormTop, is ridiculous, and the argument of who's right who's wrong when it comes to the weather is funny at the very least. We are all going to be right and wrong at different times. Some have been studying the weather longer than others. Ive been on this blog since 2004, I have gained a lot of knowledge on the subject of weather, but still need to learn a lot more in this field. Every storm is an opportunity to learn more.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
1246. LargoFl
Quoting 1240. opal92nwf:

Opal was sort of similar, at least with the land interaction over the Yucatan.

thanks levi..watching this one closely.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41834
Quoting 1244. Grothar:


Unless people know that's lyrics from an old song, they might get the wrong impression. :)


Help us out here. I've been trying to figure it out-what song?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1833
1244. Grothar
Quoting 1238. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I love you, there's nothing to hide,
It's better than burning inside,
I love you, no use to pretend,
There! I've said it again.



Unless people know that's lyrics from an old song, they might get the wrong impression. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
Quoting 1155. LargoFl:
"I like Ike"...I remember that too
Quoting 1201. nash36:
And I see some people like to repeat themselves and chest pat. No room for that in here. Give it a rest.

It has gone on all day. Even though some are on ignore they get quoted and I see them. With enough ignores this blog becomes quite informative.
Grothar I only remember watching the nominating conventions for Ike and Adlai.
Member Since: July 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1242. nash36
Quoting 1233. IKE:
The next 3 days......




92L can feel free to NOT take the easterly route! We have had MORE than enough rain in Charleston this summer. We do not need another 3-5 inches this weekend.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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