Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1312. Tazmanian:
92L is one sloppy mess


That phrase sounds like a broken record thus far in our hurricane season.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
1341. Grothar
Quoting 1334. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Alright somethin's happening
Hold tight it might be lightning
Turn up the lights I feel like dancing
Can't sleep at night my heart keeps missing a beat


You're catching all the songs. Who do you think you are, Peter Frampton?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Seen more convection in the feature near 40W...
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1339. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
well Good Night Folks..stay safe out there...

GN, Largo. By the time you come back, 92L will probably be headed right at you. :-)
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1338. hydrus
Quoting 1296. MississippiWx:
Low pressure seems to be consolidating a bit farther north than models expected. This could throw a bit of a wrench in the eventual forecast if trends continue as models initialized on a low farther south.

This system will have many wrenches for us to reckon with. It is really neat trying to piece together a forecast that is on the mark..I enjoy it.
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Quoting Grothar:


Are we awake?


Yes we are but have the effects of very strong pain killers running through my body.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1325. hurricanes2018:
tropical storm lost lots of its t.storms and rain with it

maybe it form more tstorm tonight
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1413
1335. Levi32
Quoting 1330. Grothar:



Levi, tell me what you see in this image. It isn't very good) And if you embarrass me, I'll minus you until the cows come home :)


Link


I see an elongated area of low pressure?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Quoting 1301. Grothar:
I just think something else is going on there.





Alright somethin's happening
Hold tight it might be lightning
Turn up the lights I feel like dancing
Can't sleep at night my heart keeps missing a beat
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
1333. sar2401
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, it's not too far off for now, but if trends continue a surface low consolidation much closer to the Northern tip of the Yucatan could be in the cards. D-max for land has certainly helped 92L. Could be one of those systems that develops into a depression inland.

;-)

Ignoring the impressive blob over Cuba, I think the developing low center is at 20N, 89W. If my guess is right, the low will be in the BOC in about five hours, right in the best part of the infamous "spin-up" zone. This should get the blog all excited. :-)
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Quoting 1253. MississippiWx:
92L is actually starting to look a little like a tropical cyclone.

Quoting 1260. Grothar:


There, I've said it again.


Deja Vu all over again.....LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5155
Erin is an exact copy of Dorian according to KFDM 6 in Beaumont.
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1330. Grothar
Quoting 1303. Levi32:


The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast. In 70-80 minutes we should know what the 0z position is.




Levi, tell me what you see in this image. It isn't very good) And if you embarrass me, I'll minus you until the cows come home :)


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
So at the moment, it appears 92L is enjoying the land... not sure if it would be a "brown ocean" example, since it is probably taking in lots of moisture from the waters around the Yucatan, but cool nonetheless.

Also, as someone mentioned earlier, there may be another piece of vorticity just east of the tip of the Yucatan. Hard to say for sure though, since it's covered in moderate convection right now. If it is there, it seems a bit too far to compete.
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1328. JLPR2
Looking interesting.

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1327. Patrap
This 92L has a story to tell yet, as that surface Low is dominating now..and creeping wnw.


92L Moving Floater, ZOOM by clicking the image
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1326. nash36
Quoting 1315. stormgirI:

that was a bad one. how can it be an anologe for this year though? could it?


People get too wrapped up in "analogue" years. I know the saying has been thrown around umpteen times, but all it takes is ONE really bad hurricane to ruin lives and change the history books.

Each season and each storm are vastly different.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 590
tropical storm lost lots of its t.storms and rain with it
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1324. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1323. Grothar
Quoting 1320. AussieStorm:


That looks like an erupting volcano


Are we awake?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
1322. Grothar
Quoting 1303. Levi32:


The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast. In 70-80 minutes we should know what the 0z position is.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
1321. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast. In 70-80 minutes we should know what the 0z position is.


If the "real" low is actually that much further north, I think the model impacts could be considerable. The further north, the more shear the eventual cyclone in the Gulf can avoid, and the less it will get torn up by said shear. I will be interesting, just like all the other junky storms we've had this season. :-)
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Quoting Grothar:
I just think something else is going on there.





That looks like an erupting volcano
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Quoting 1303. Levi32:


The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast. In 70-80 minutes we should know what the 0z position is.



Yeah, it's not too far off for now, but if trends continue a surface low consolidation much closer to the Northern tip of the Yucatan could be in the cards. D-max for land has certainly helped 92L. Could be one of those systems that develops into a depression inland.

;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
I have a very hard time wrapping my mind around why anyone would consider a major hurricane NOT making landfall on the GOM a "bust" season. Seems to me a lot of people have their priorities and perspectives skewed.
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Hmm interesting.
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Quoting 1312. Tazmanian:
92L is one sloppy mess

i think you are right the wave ahead of erin may be next invest
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1413
The Barometer Bob Show for August 15, 2013.

Bob's special guests are Dr. Gerry Bell lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. We will discuss the latest hurricane season update and why this season has the potential to be active.

Also, Lanny Dean and some interesting new information on the tornado research he was doing during the El Reno, OK tornado.

Watch the show here live Thursday night beginning at 8PM/7C

Or join us weather geeks/enthusiasts in Storm Chat where you can get your questions answered by the Guests

The show starts in about 45 minutes.
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92L is one sloppy mess
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1311. LargoFl
well Good Night Folks..stay safe out there...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
1309. marmark
Quoting 1251. Patrap:
The Blogs started in 2005, April to be zact.

And it used to be five bucks to be a paid member.
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1308. Patrap
92L is over the Huracan' Gods temple site.

That bodes not well..,for us,"twit's".



Remember that weekend down there in 1409 Gro?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting 1303. Levi32:


The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast.


levi have you see wave at 40 w new model cmc form it into big storm near bermuda !
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1413
1306. sar2401
Quoting MississippiWx:
Low pressure seems to be consolidating a bit farther north than models expected. This could throw a bit of a wrench in the eventual forecast if trends continue as models initialized on a low farther south.


Wherever we finally get an actual, identifiable, no doubt about it low will change all the models. They have all been initializing off bogus lows, and each one has a somewhat different bogus vortex. One we get that low, then we can stop with the "Everything from Veracruz to Miami" models. :-)
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1305. VR46L
Quoting 1279. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Some people like to take the GFS (most likely the trolls) as gospel and ignore all else. Now that is biased forecasting at its best. Don't take those users seriously.


I don't know , I like the GFS this year It has dropped its 360 perma-cane this year ...But I also like the Euro ...Yes both missed the marginal TS, at times this year but when you consider how inactive the season has been, so far, and you consider how many Canes the CMC has thrown up. Both the GFS and Euro has done a good job at showing little happening ...neither liked 92L and so far both look to be right.
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1304. nash36
Quoting 1294. stormgirI:
i think it a little premature to call it a bust season now....but no hurricane yet is strange. and dry air and shear are a bigger factor here than last year. might be good it will keep what develops in check.


It's not strange at all. Charley (even though it was the 2nd hurricane of the year) formed on 8-9 in 2004. That's a six day difference and we all know how the remainder of THAT year turned out.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 590
1303. Levi32
Quoting 1296. MississippiWx:
Low pressure seems to be consolidating a bit farther north than models expected. This could throw a bit of a wrench in the eventual forecast if trends continue as models initialized on a low farther south.



The 18z initialization position probably still isn't that far off, though of course with sharp vorticity extending northward, anything can happen around the coast. In 70-80 minutes we should know what the 0z position is.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Quoting 1269. stormgirI:
long range trends on the 18z gfs suggust much the same upper mid level steering for the wave behind erin. might see a nice traveersing ts for those liking storms like me but hurricane status probably unlikely cuz of dry air. and good news is it also appears that and anything in first half of sept will curve before bermuda which is good for the peeps there...


What long range trends? What do you look at for your information? There is a major signal for NW US troughing and NE US ridging which is expected to bridge with the AB high across the Atlantic Ocean as the troughing over Bermuda will move out to sea embedded with the westerlies north of the sub tropical ridge. Pay attention to the teleconnections, they lead the way for the pattern change recognition.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3717
1301. Grothar
I just think something else is going on there.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Quoting 1277. stormgirI:
can't believe already mid august and not a single hurricane. is that unprecedented? epac is laughing at atlantic this year huh! lol
we keep getting weak tropical storms this year with dry air or wind shear..
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1298. Patrap
Geesum, the asylum is full seems.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Low pressure seems to be consolidating a bit farther north than models expected. This could throw a bit of a wrench in the eventual forecast if trends continue as models initialized on a low farther south.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
The big red blob over Cuba concerns me. That's a lot of wet.
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Quoting 1259. stormgirI:

it really does not matter now. yesterday and day before was it's window. little too late now. the land will tear whatever is left of the mid-level circulation, and maybe boc will be kind to it with shape of terrain. that's really the only place in basin where shear is low and dry air not strangling....

Actually the Yucatan has had a history organizing weak systems compared to ripping them. This system actually has organized these past few hours.
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1292. Patrap
...Hello dere, welcome to the Hurricane Party !!!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.