Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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nice spin with 92L
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AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
1439. Patrap
The Tasked missions for today were cancelled due to there not being any "system" to fly, plus the mean Low Level center is over the Yucatan,...

One cant drop sondes over land.

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1438. HCW
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Didn't even pass 65F at my school until after lunch. Cold for August standards.

"Wilmington smashed today's old record by five degrees for the coldest high temperature on record: 71 degrees. It's been a unseasonably cool day across both Carolinas with highs in the 70s from Charleston and Columbia to Charlotte and Raleigh. As a warm front approaches from the south this weekend expect gradually warming temperatures along with a good deal of rain."

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1436. ncstorm
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Wilmington smashed today's old record by five degrees for the coldest high temperature on record: 71 degrees. It's been a unseasonably cool day across both Carolinas with highs in the 70s from Charleston and Columbia to Charlotte and Raleigh. As a warm front approaches from the south this weekend expect gradually warming temperatures along with a good deal of rain.
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AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO
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1433. VR46L
Quoting 1416. stormgirI:
those were the days mate! igor lead the way and julia followed. true storm lovers loved her. she was a working girl. loyal and true. big and mean. and she didn't hurt anyone. i like that. ;o)


Yep , Could offend no one . I think the images of the two of those storms is something really special .Roaring around the Atlantic .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
1418. stormgirI everything that forms and looks good, something is always missing and wrong with the system.
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1431. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1420. HadesGodWyvern:


central pacific naming list leaves off to what name was last, which in 2010, was OMEKA.

It's been a while since the CPAC was this active.
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Quoting 1379. MississippiWx:
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...
IF NECESSARY.


Looks like the NHC is having as much trouble as we are trying to figure out what this puppy is going to do. Wouldn't it be reasonable just to send an aircraft in there if for no other reason than to calm down the models, give them some semblance of a local of the LLC and get some consensus on where it is going? Maybe it's the sequester budget cuts.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...
IF NECESSARY.

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1427. GetReal


IMO 92L is not going anywhere very fast.... More like crawling and staggering along like a Bourbon St tourist.
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1425. sar2401
Quoting ProphetessofDoom:


Thanks for responding! So that area of indeterminate shape around the western tip of Cuba cannot form into it's own separate entity? (Newbies should not used the "B" word until granted permission from the experts!)

LOL. Yes, the "blob-like" shape over Cuba is really a combination of the energy from the elongated trough of 92L and the normal seabreeze thunderstorms that occur daily in the summer tropics. Watch it tonight and you'll see it fade out after sunset and dissipate by about 2:00 am. What you want to watch for with 92L is any areas of convection that don't fade, especially any that are also headed back offshore. That's likely to be the center of the tropical cyclone once it forms.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15997
Quoting 1414. stormgirI:

epac season rockin' already getting close to p & u names. that's where the action is? looks like atlantic needs to take lessons from them huh???

This isn't the East Pacific, it's the Central Pacific.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting 1417. MiamiHurricanes09:
Says "30" on the top. Don't know if it's in meters or feet.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/YC04_10M.TXT


Probably meters
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1420. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


epac season rockin' already getting close to p & u names. that's where the action is? looks like atlantic needs to take lessons from them huh???


central pacific naming list leaves off to what name was last, which in 2010, was OMEKA.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45556
1419. Levi32
Quoting 1399. nrtiwlnvragn:


You know the elevation at that location? My understanding is the Yucatan in pretty flat.


Google Earth says about 40 meters, or about 130 feet. Pressure falls at about 1mb per 30 feet in the boundary layer, so the MSLP is closer to 1010mb there right now.
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Quoting 1399. nrtiwlnvragn:


You know the elevation at that location? My understanding is the Yucatan in pretty flat.
Says "30" on the top. Don't know if it's in meters or feet...but probably meters.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/YC04_10M.TXT
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I am really starting to hate this season.
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1413. ncstorm
HWRF looks to show some life in the wave before Erin heading into the islands and look at the wave coming off Africa

last frame
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1412. VR46L
Quoting 1387. stormgirI:
wonder if this wave out there in africa has a julia potential to form and get so intense so far east? of course that was in 2010 when season was hyper active cuz shear and dry air were kept at bay.


Naw, Maybe Igor ,Looks too big to be like Julia



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
1411. sar2401
Quoting lurkersince2008:
Can someone tell me what the ensemble model tracks shows. I thought it shows previous storm tracks but I was told that wasn't the case.

An ensemble is kind of what it sounds like - a collection of model runs. It's a collection of models, all averaged together, to come up with a best track and intensity, since one model is never always right. One of the problems in a weak invest, especially one without a closed low, is that ensembles never get run, so we are left to look at 10 or 11 models and do a mental ensemble. Once the NHC starts producing ensembles, that's about the closest we can get to certainty with the technology we have today to predict hurricane pats and intensity.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15997
Quoting 1390. Patrap:


A few take it up to hurricane strength. Doubt it, but if it can take advantage of the favorable conditions in the gulf then it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

This might be a good analog track.

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Quoting 1375. sar2401:

I suppose it's possible but it seems highly unlikely. Most invests have a hard enough time forming one COC, let alone two. If someone else has heard of this actually happen, chime in, but I never have.


Thanks for responding! So that area of indeterminate shape around the western tip of Cuba cannot form into it's own separate entity? (Newbies should not used the "B" word until granted permission from the experts!)
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Invest 90C is experiencing some westerly shear. However, it has a well-defined surface circulation and any increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a tropical cyclone.



Invest 91C is close to developing as well. The NWS office in Honolulu is calling the center poorly organized, but I'm not seeing it. Wish we had ASCAT.



Next two names are Pewa and Unala.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting 1375. sar2401:

I suppose it's possible but it seems highly unlikely. Most invests have a hard enough time forming one COC, let alone two. If someone else has heard of this actually happen, chime in, but I never have.


Thanks for responding! So that area of indeterminate shape around the western tip of Cuba cannot form into it's own separate entity? (Newbies should not used the "B" word until granted permission from the experts!)
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Quoting 1395. Patrap:
REAL-TIME GUIDANCE FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL92)


Why isn't the early track guidance up yet? (not that the BAM models matter to much) but would like to see it :)
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Quoting 1148. SLU:



Hmmmm ...

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Well this was from SLU's comment (1148)...




I think he messed with the scale a bit but 700mb has certainly been drier than normal.
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Tough night.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Grothar, have you left the building?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
At 1800 UTC, 15 August 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL92) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.3°N and 88.3°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
1400. Dakster
Quoting 1395. Patrap:
REAL-TIME GUIDANCE FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL92)


Interesting site, but I think they need to work on the autofill... -999MB is quite low, and those winds!

At 0600 UTC, 15 August 2013, CYCLONE TYPE UNKNOWN (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.5°N and 24.5°W. The current intensity was -999 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10399
Quoting 1394. Levi32:


Just so everybody knows, those pressure graphs are for surface pressure, not adjusted to mean sea-level. The MSLP is not actually 1005.5mb at that location.


You know the elevation at that location? My understanding is the Yucatan in pretty flat.
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Quoting 1317. oceanspringsMS:
I have a very hard time wrapping my mind around why anyone would consider a major hurricane NOT making landfall on the GOM a "bust" season. Seems to me a lot of people have their priorities and perspectives skewed.


Yep, I have to agree with that sentiment. I think people just want something, anything to watch and follow. That's fine, but with your blog name I can understand your irritation with that kind of mindset. My brother lived in Gulf Hills. Notice I said, "lived." Watched the water come up on his house on Arbor Circle from the Gulf Hills hotel, all the way up to the roof. Lost everything he was not able to transport on a trailer and squeeze into his hotel room. Whole sets of woodworking tools--lathes, drill presses, most of it irreplaceable. Furniture, a grand piano. Lost an antique car. Now there's a slab where he used to live. So I am annoyed as you are. What was the surge there on Back Bay? 21 feet. Just incredible.
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1397. Patrap
92L Short Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

Controls and ZOOM active
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1396. whitewabit (Mod)
Keep conversations on topic and avoid adult-only topic themes. Our site is open to users of all ages, so please respect others.
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1395. Patrap
REAL-TIME GUIDANCE FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL92)
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1394. Levi32
Quoting 1365. nrtiwlnvragn:










Near the "V"


Mexico Automatic Stations


Just so everybody knows, those pressure graphs are for surface pressure, not adjusted to mean sea-level. The MSLP is not actually 1005.5mb at that location.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Your back bad tonight? Hope the meds help.


Been bad for the last 3 day, I can barely walk, sleeping is a nightmare as I can't get comfortable and now the left side of my face feels weird and I have a headache and a sore left shoulder. I hope it's not what I think it is.
Quoting sar2401:

I know what you mean (he said, about to take his second [prescribed] 30mgs of morphine for the day). It's hard to explain what a huge thing it is to have narcotics available unless you have chronic but acute pain. I would not be able to get out of bed in the morning without them. It's also weird that, when you're in pain, you don't get any kind of buzz from taking narcotics - it just goes right to the pain center of your brain, not the pleasure center. There are times, however, when I do think the drugs make me see wierd faces in satellite photos. :-)


Mate, my doctor gave me pain patches to try, they ain't did nothing. They were suppose to be narco but I didn't feel any effect.
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1392. sar2401
Quoting MississippiWx:
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...
IF NECESSARY.

Only thing added was that last sentence, and still with the "IF NECESSARY" qualifier added. I hope they really do fly it so we'll have some idea what 92L is really doing.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15997

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.