Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Looks as if anything that try's to get going in the tropics this year just runs into a bunch of roadblocks. But don't dismay. we're just getting started and it's not over till the fat lady sings.
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1491. Grothar
Quoting 1402. daddyjames:
Grothar, have you left the building?


Yes, my neighbor's husband fell and we had to go over and help. I watched while they picked him up.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Erin looks like it's dying:

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As 92L continues trekking west, and looking like it's holding it's own(at least) with the land interaction..it's getting interesting.
.
I do have to stop and note how absolutely beautiful it was in the Caymans today....so far it's about the only spot in the Western Caribbean to not even get a decent fringe effect from 92L....it proves that you don't always get what you want, no matter how hard you wish.
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Good evening all... my latest update on Erin...


feel free to check my blog for more info, and 92L and the Central Pacific lows
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Quoting 1457. Hurricanes305:
Good Evening everyone, 92L is in a spot where land interaction can help it some. Some type of circulation is over the Central Yucatan lets see how it can organize in the Southern Gulf.

just like Jim Cantore said.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3350
Quoting 1431. Skyepony:

It's been a while since the CPAC was this active.


Totally! Seems so weird to have all these posts for CPAC!


Been LOTS of rain here in N Wales today, windy too. Too warm for it though, very sticky (though nothing compared to FL etc!!). Got pretty much all my photography equipment deep cleaned today though...long awaited. And went to a work related party for a few hours before hanging with my daughter and playing some dancing game with her before my long weekend shifts at the 'day job', so a good day all round at least.
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It took Opal 4 days to get her act together in the BOC in 1995.
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Quoting 1471. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely not the values they were the other day...

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25


Yet not a large impact on SHIPS intensity


VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1.
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1479. Levi32
GFDL ensembles show the potential for some kind of organization in the western gulf, after the trough to the north begins to lift out. The key will be whether there is anything left of 92L to develop, given that most of its moisture will be robbed from it by the trough and deposited on the north gulf coast instead.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting 1473. DonnieBwkGA:


How have they changed and are these for 92L or Erin?

This is for 92L. The SHIPS was indicating extremely strong wind shear in excess of 40 knots affecting the system was it approached land...it's now down to only 25 knots. Still not favorable at all, but probably not destructive.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Quoting 1462. ncstorm:
18z Navgem develops 92L..also sees some potential in the wave in front of Erin

Vorticity map


That little feature may try to do something in the Caribbean or just north of it if it can develop a low and persist.
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Quoting 1463. MiamiHurricanes09:
SHIPS giving 92L about 48 hours before upper-level winds start to tend towards the unfavorable.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 41 48 54 54 57 57 59 40

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25


Anyone have the OFCL track?
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1474. gator23
Quoting 1472. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yes, minimal tropical storm Andrea, I forgot about that one.


06/07/2013 Never Forget...
=P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely not the values they were the other day...

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25


How have they changed and are these for 92L or Erin?
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Quoting 1455. gator23:


Agree its not like Florida didnt get hit by a tropical storm that came from the GOM or anything..


Yes, minimal tropical storm Andrea, I forgot about that one.
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Definitely not the values they were the other day...

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Well, if the 850 mb vort map is right, it doesn't seem like the blob over Cuba has anything under it. That could change, but it won't have much time.

Meanwhile, the spin over the Yucatan is getting stronger.
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Convection decreasing over Erin because of DMIN conditions still favorable for development in the next couple of days before hitting drier air. The wave behind it looks like it may be a threat to develop like Erin. The reason the GFS in the past has been showing little activity for August was cause it had the wave emerging north of the CV islands.

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1467. ncstorm
I am really starting to like the wave chances in front of erin



SREF
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Quoting 1443. LAbonbon:


Not sure if you got your answer to this or not. This link to an NHC page discusses ensemble models. If you scroll down to the letter 'g' it talks about ensembles and consensus models. Link




Just what I was looking for....thanks! I even bookmarked it.
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NHC via Ships still thinks almost 5 days to reach land for 92L.
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SHIPS giving 92L about 48 hours before upper-level winds start to tend towards the unfavorable.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 41 48 54 54 57 57 59 40

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25
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Nice looking storm.



Temperature/Dewpoint spread is about 20 degrees, so the tornado threat isn't non-existent, but you can see the RFD arching out ahead of the storm, likely inhibiting a tornado atm. However, as the sun gets lower, and the temperature drops, the spread will be less, and we could have a tornado before the storm collapses after sunset.
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Quoting 1446. stormgirI:
it shed some weight for sure.wondering that too. could that be our troublemaker for fl???


Perhaps. The 0000 UTC CIMSS 850 mb vorticity map might tell an interesting tale when it comes out in a few minutes.

Edit: I suppose 2400 UTC is not really proper.
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Good Evening everyone, 92L is in a spot where land interaction can help it some. Some type of circulation is over the Central Yucatan lets see how it can organize in the Southern Gulf.

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1456. GetReal
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1455. gator23
Quoting 1449. HurrMichaelOrl:


Really, the doors have never even been open this season yet and have not been for quite some time.


Agree its not like Florida didnt get hit by a tropical storm that came from the GOM or anything..
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19.8N 89.1W.



------------------------------------------------- ---

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU AUG 15 2013
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
SLOWLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
1452. gator23
Quoting 1415. weatherman994:
I am really starting to hate this season.


Why you had 3 landfalling systems and an invest to watch...
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
614 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2013

NMC009-160030-
/O.CON.KABQ.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130816T0030Z/
CURRY-
614 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 609 PM MDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOVIS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLOVIS AROUND 625 PM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. LEAVE AUTOMOBILES AND MOBILE HOMES. MOVE
INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 10315 3449 10310 3439 10315 3442 10326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 024DEG 15KT 3445 10315

$$
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Quoting 1429. stormgirI:
trough came down early in 2010 and spoiled the fun for many along gulf coast. gom locked up it's doors early that year.i am just wondering if that's what will happen this year???


Really, the doors have never even been open this season yet and have not been for quite some time.
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Quoting 1441. MississippiWx:
AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ


This is the first time ATCF has had "LO" for 92L. It's also a good bit further north than the last update. This lends a little credence to the idea that a surface low is developing further north closer to the middle of the convection.
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1440. stormgirI that and Erin is becoming a fish booorrriinnnngggggg.
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We're at DMIN, but 92L doesn't care it seems. Doesn't care that's it over land either. I wonder what it'll look like by the time it completes its crossing of the Yucatan... also, its offspring over Cuba is interesting too.
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Quoting 1385. lurkersince2008:
Can someone tell me what the ensemble model tracks shows. I thought it shows previous storm tracks but I was told that wasn't the case.


Not sure if you got your answer to this or not. This link to an NHC page discusses ensemble models. If you scroll down to the letter 'g' it talks about ensembles and consensus models. Link
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nice spin with 92L
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.