Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1592. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1526. stormgirI:
you sure know your history dad but this ain't the same seasons as those.african dust and dry air terrible this year. Talks about plume over Galveston. we have a long way to go of weak pathetic systems that probably won't amount to much unless they get in the central atlantic like gordon and michael. these conditions out there is the trenches.takes a survivor a warrior and that just ain't happening now and it don't look to change.

the first rule I ever learned about weather is that it is always changing you can't predict the season based solely on what has happened in the first quarter
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1590. FOREX
Quoting 1588. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Would you like me to confuse you some more?
:P



lol
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1589. GatorWX

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Quoting 1583. FOREX:


sure doesn't look like a Mexican landfall. I'm confused.lol
Would you like me to confuse you some more?
:P

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8440
Buenas Noches,hasta en cinco horas.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
TS Erin Models HWRF, AVN, FIM and some others.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8440
Quoting 1584. Ypere104:
Hello Everyone, is there any webpage that I can get archived wind shear maps from previous years?? I am participating in an hurricane research internship here at FIU and I can't find any. Thanks in advance Yamil


This should help you out (main page)

Link

This is the shear maps section

Link


EDIT: Sorry about that, I failed to see you requested shear archives. You can go back at 3 hour frames but I do not know if you can go back months or years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Everyone, is there any webpage that I can get archived wind shear maps from previous years?? I am participating in an hurricane research internship here at FIU and I can't find any. Thanks in advance Yamil
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1583. FOREX
Quoting 1579. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interesting the difference between the 2 at the same resolution.



sure doesn't look like a Mexican landfall. I'm confused.lol
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting 1573. ncstorm:


Allan only charges 10.00 a month which I can spare and in the process of upgrading his website again..hopefully the price doesn't upgrade with it..


I understand, and it likely will as long as people continue to pay for it. I know it's part of business and in the end, especially in this country, money comes first. That is just the way it is in today's society. Back in the day, people did things out of kindness, now people want money to do anything.

Back on topic though, it sure is nice to not feel this humidity it Houston this evening!!
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Quoting 1540. Grothar:
That's a big chicken!
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1580. dmh1026
Quoting 1521. HurriHistory:
Now look here son, it's only the 15th of August. Hurricane Cleo did not hit Miami until the 27th of August 1964. Donna hit Craig Key on September the 10th 1960. Betsy hit Key Largo on September the 8th 1965. The Great Miami Hurricane did not hit until the 17th of September 1926 when all of Miami Beach went under (5) feet of water. The Great West Palm Beach Hurricane did not hit until the 16th of September 1928 and took 2500 lives. Hurricane Inez did not hit Key Largo until October the 4th 1966 and Hurricane King did not make a direct hit on the city of Miami until October 18th 1950. So we have a long long way's to go. As most of you know all this African Dust and Dry Air can subside at any time and then WATCH OUT!
Not to mention Andrew hit on August 24th 1992!
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Interesting the difference between the 2 at the same resolution.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8440
Development Possible
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Quoting 1574. Levi32:


That page displays operational runs. TC ensemble tracks from ECMWF and UKMO are available sometimes from HFIP.


TY :)
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Quoting 1537. Hurricanes101:


Nah, they are all dying, season is over, bust, bust, SAL, shear, dry air, Llamas dancing, over, bust, fish


I laughed when I saw this.
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1575. Grothar
Quoting 1567. DavidHOUTX:


I would think he makes some money off of the corporate world, for sure. But asking people to pay some $200 or so for access to a site is ridiculous. It is a shame Allan Huffman started doing it as well.

I understand the logic behind it, I certainly understand the hard work they do and wanting to make money behind it as well. I just think they could be a little more reasonable to the general public.

Charge the Fortune 500 companies a ton of money. They will pay it. I work for one lol.


They know some people will pay for it. Shame.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
1574. Levi32
Quoting 1563. Orcasystems:


Doesn't this one show the ECMWF & the UKMOD

Link


That page displays operational runs. TC ensemble tracks from ECMWF and UKMO are available sometimes from HFIP.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1573. ncstorm
Quoting 1567. DavidHOUTX:


I would think he makes some money off of the corporate world, for sure. But asking people to pay some $200 or so for access to a site is ridiculous. It is a shame Allan Huffman started doing it as well.

I understand the logic behind it, I certainly understand the hard work they do and wanting to make money behind it as well. I just think they could be a little more reasonable to the general public.

Charge the Fortune 500 companies a ton of money. They will pay it. I work for one lol.


Allan only charges 10.00 a month which I can spare and in the process of upgrading his website again..hopefully the price doesn't upgrade with it..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696
Quoting 1555. tornadodude:


I had the honor of storm chasing with Cantore back in May when he came out with us and TVN. One cool dude. Gave me a weather channel hat lol

Here I am wearing the hat in Nebraska back in May haha


Hailstones aren't food.
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HUMBERTO (WHOM BARE TOW) I THINK THIS ONE WILL BE A DOOZY.
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1570. FOREX
Quoting 1566. moonlightcowboy:
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

I see we're all still sitting on the edge of our seats for 92L. ;P Still hasn't gotten it together.

And, whomever was remarking on the GFDL, it's fairly well-known for its ineffectiveness as a cyclogenesis model. I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Convergence not looking like too much either still.
Ok, you blobhounds, is it gonna make up or not? ;P




Are the models to be trusted yet saying a Mexico landfall if it develops?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting 1557. Levi32:


Yes. Some corporations like Wunderground are big enough to be able to pay the ~140,000 Euros a year for it. It costs much more for ensemble data and special grids, though.
you expect us to have less hurricanes than forecasted due to the strong high pressure?
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1568. GatorWX
Can't you hear me knockin', yeah, throw me down the keys
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Quoting 1553. Grothar:


He must make some money on his site.


I would think he makes some money off of the corporate world, for sure. But asking people to pay some $200 or so for access to a site is ridiculous. It is a shame Allan Huffman started doing it as well.

I understand the logic behind it, I certainly understand the hard work they do and wanting to make money behind it as well. I just think they could be a little more reasonable to the general public.

Charge the Fortune 500 companies a ton of money. They will pay it. I work for one lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

I see we're all still sitting on the edge of our seats for 92L. ;P Still hasn't gotten it together.

And, whomever was remarking on the GFDL, it's fairly well-known for its ineffectiveness as a cyclogenesis model. I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Convergence not looking like too much either still.

Ok, you blobhounds, is it gonna make up or not? ;P


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Utor is still spinning around out over China:



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Quoting 1557. Levi32:


Yes. Some corporations like Wunderground are big enough to be able to pay the ~140,000 Euros a year for it. It costs much more for ensemble data and special grids, though.


Doesn't this one show the ECMWF & the UKMOD

Link
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1562. Patrap
Quoting 1560. tornadodude:


LOL it's already dirty and sweat stained


Perfect for E-bay then !
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Quoting 1558. stormgirI:
that's so cool tornado dude. he seems like a cool cat. i wud preserve the hat and try not to wear it too much. lol


LOL it's already dirty and sweat stained
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Quoting 1526. stormgirI:
you sure know your history dad but this ain't the same seasons as those.african dust and dry air terrible this year. Talks about plume over Galveston. we have a long way to go of weak pathetic systems that probably won't amount to much unless they get in the central atlantic like gordon and michael. these conditions out there is the trenches.takes a survivor a warrior and that just ain't happening now and it don't look to change.
Yes I do know my Hurricane History. When your over 100 years old like me it's not hard. (No pun intended) But I also agree with what you've said. This year the Atlantic Basin in infected with too much dry air and dust. Any storm that does get going will likely struggle. And in that case the only way you might see a healthy storm spin-up would be if something comes out of the Western Caribbean in mid or late October.
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1557. Levi32
Quoting 1551. RascalNag:


Doesn't the wundermap have the ECMWF included?


Yes. Some corporations like Wunderground are big enough to be able to pay the ~140,000 Euros a year for it. It costs much more for ensemble data and special grids, though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Well after days of being down, the Experimental FIM ZEUS 30 km. ran.



Believe it or not it is actually showing the same storm the GFS is showing in the EPAC. Could be ugly if it verifies for the West Mexican coast.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8440
Quoting 1545. Hurricanes305:


Lol I guess thats a compliment but I dont watch TWC.


I had the honor of storm chasing with Cantore back in May when he came out with us and TVN. One cool dude. Gave me a weather channel hat lol

Here I am wearing the hat in Nebraska back in May haha

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1554. Patrap
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1553. Grothar
Quoting 1549. DavidHOUTX:


Tease or perhaps... Gloat


He must make some money on his site.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Quoting 1532. Levi32:


Because it's the best global model in the world, so people demand it, and they saw a financial opportunity. It's a brilliant move by them, although very annoying.


Doesn't the wundermap have the ECMWF included?
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Quoting 1546. Grothar:


I think he does that to tease.


Tease or perhaps... Gloat
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1547. Patrap
JB posts on tweeter ville cuz no one will pay for his thoughts.

ACK!!

I kid, I kid..

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1546. Grothar
Quoting 1535. Levi32:


He runs the model plots for Weatherbell, but they are all paywalled. Sometimes he posts specific plots on Twitter, like that one.


I think he does that to tease.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Quoting 1485. HurricaneAndre:
just like Jim Cantore said.


Lol I guess thats a compliment but I dont watch TWC.
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1544. Patrap
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Andddddddd right on cue with the sunset this storm is dying off


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1542. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.