Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Share this Blog
73
+

The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2492 - 2442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

2492. FOREX
Quoting 2488. mfcmom:


Trying to figure whether to pull the pontoon boat on. Am on Burnt Mill Creek and the boat is already up almost over the dock. Hubby is out of country and need to call someone to help me. What do you think, Forex?


I would call a friend and let them know what is going on. Looks like some heavy storms to our West and south yet to come today and tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2491. ryang
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2474. SouthernIllinois:

Haha. You know someday I may have to go that route myself. I'll safe energy and maybe even set up a putting green under the Chinaquin Oak. haha!


Exactly! I've been saying that all along. I'm trying to convince my HOA that having a putting green or at least a pop warner football field in the front yard would help bring the community together and save on watering/mowing costs. Ill seriousness though I've been Xeriscaping my yard. I've got some awesome native trees and plants that as they grow are starting to provide sun shelters which help reduce further water demand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2488. mfcmom
Quoting 2483. FOREX:


I live close to you. They were saying 3-5 inches thru Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being triple that. Just a guess based on what still to come.


Trying to figure whether to pull the pontoon boat out. Am on Burnt Mill Creek and the boat is already up almost over the dock. Hubby is out of country and need to call someone to help me. What do you think, Forex?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2487. ncstorm
NHC previous 11pm discussion wasnt sold on the northward track so much..

5am discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD
AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM
MODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN
50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2486. scott39
Quoting 2484. stoormfury:
CATL DISTURBANCE IS IN A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT TO TAKE OFF. ORGANISING VERY SLOWLY. CENTRAL ANTILLES SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
I barely awake. Why are you yelling at me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2485. Times2
92L has been 92L for so long I won't recognize it as anything else. Needs circulation or no real storm here. Usually a storm like this waits until just before it lands to gain some strength. I have a sneaky suspicion that this will be the scenario.I am inclined to believe we have a SW La. landfall coming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CATL DISTURBANCE IS IN A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT TO TAKE OFF. ORGANISING VERY SLOWLY. CENTRAL ANTILLES SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2483. FOREX
Quoting 2469. mfcmom:
Okay Panama City here on West Bay. Super heavy black clouds watching them out my window on the bay. This really sucks. We are so overloaded with water now it's just ridiculous. Huge water rat out in my yard this morning they are even drowning. How much more rain do you think we all will get.


I live close to you. They were saying 3-5 inches thru Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being triple that. Just a guess based on what still to come.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to Global Warming will create bigger and more frequent tropical cyclones?

I'm an old broad, and I have been tracking storms since the times when your local news/mets and grocers got together and gave away tracking maps. We got a new one every year, and my Daddy taught me to track. We had busy seasons and not so busy seasons, but for the life of me, I do not recall these "dead" seasons. Maybe I am mistaken, but after 2005-2008, nothing really develops.

Anyway, seems that ever since "they" said AGW would bring about superstorms, the Atlantic has been pretty calm. This leads me to believe "they" could very well be full of crap.

This is my opinion, and if you feel inclined to argue with me, please note I will not engage with you. I am not interested in kiddie debates, for sure. Just my opinion based on life experience.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2480. 7544
Quoting 2356. MadinBoy:
perhaps we'll get 94L between 50w and 52w soon ....


and cmc says bye bye out to sea for that one maybe the huge one just coming off africa will make the trip acrooss lol still alot of dry air out there imo it would have to stay south to surrive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2469. mfcmom:
Okay Panama City here on West Bay. Super heavy black clouds watching them out my window on the bay. This really sucks. We are so overloaded with water now it's just ridiculous. Huge water rat out in my yard this morning they are even drowning. How much more rain do you think we all will get.


Just sing the "summer time sadness" song
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2478. scott39
92L is putting on a small show E of the COC. wrapping to the W....to be continued.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2477. ncstorm
Euro and GFS Ensembles having differing opinions on Erin..

GFS has one outlier on its later run..could it be a trend starting..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2420. ProphetessofDoom:


Can you blame him. I mean really, it's one of the best outdoor restaurants ever! Good food and incredible views! How did he handle Frances, Jeanne and Wilma I wonder?


There's some pics from all 3 storms on my HISTORY page in the Hurricane Protocol guide. Wilma blew off part of the roof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2370. kmanislander:
Banding features are starting to show up on the NE and SE side of this feature at 45 West. I expect it will be circled fairly soon today,possibly at 20%.





Wow so good!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2445. SouthernIllinois:

Lawns in the Panhandle of Florida are swamps, your lawn and Rita's is a desert. WHERE IS THE HAPPY MEDIAN PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!


Astroturf my friend astroturf. Trying to convince my HOA about that :-P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2469. mfcmom
Okay Panama City here on West Bay. Super heavy black clouds watching them out my window on the bay. This really sucks. We are so overloaded with water now it's just ridiculous. Huge water rat out in my yard this morning they are even drowning. How much more rain do you think we all will get.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2468. 7544
Quoting 2340. RitaEvac:
So when does hurricane season start?


when the dry air, ull, and shear disapears lol is that asking too much snooze zzzzzzzzzzzz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2467. barbamz
Hi everybody. Little update on China, and congratulations to them as their heat wave finally is ending :)

Shout-Out - August 16, 2013 - Shanghai Expat
Shanghai's long, long heat wave is finally coming to an end. Temperatures today are predicted to be between a chilling 28 degrees, up to a cool high of 34 degrees C (= 93,2F). Yesterday the high temperature was 35.4 degrees Celsius. Shanghai recorded forty-one high temperature days in a row, which is the longest uninterrupted stretch in six decades. Saturday is expected to be cloudy with a high of 34 degrees and a possibility of showers. Sunday is also predicted to be cloudy, and showers are likely early next week.

Earthobservatory, Satellite picture of the day from Shanghai:



The image was made with measurements taken on August 13, 2013 by the Thermal Infrared Sensor on the Landsat 8 satellite. The warmest surfaces are yellow, while cooler surfaces are pink. The image shows pockets of very warm areas, particularly downtown, surrounded by cooler suburban areas. The dark purple dots are cold clouds.
Chinese officials have declared a weather emergency, warning residents to limit time outdoors. It is the first time the country has issued a weather warning for heat. China's National Meteorological Center expected the heat to break sometime after August 15.



Sat pic East Asia/China from today, still with the remnants of typhoon Utor visible in its south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2432. SouthernIllinois:
Stick a fork in it for 92L like RitaEvac said. LOL


At least for today ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2465. VR46L


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
No run at the coast, No hits on the US, in 5 days, no Erin.. ( a little baseball/weather humor there.. very little)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
e Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
BTW keep an eye on the sneaky little devil underneath the dry air at 12 n 45 west. We are

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2413. AussieStorm:


Have you read this?
Link


Thanks Aussie. Was just having that conversation yesterday with some friends of mine. Good link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Dry air will try to hold it down,but dry in late Aug, Sept is still moist enough to rock. Wave train coming to life

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2460. FOREX
Quoting 2453. moonlightcowboy:



Uh, oh! The blog will simply not be able to function. ;)


Geek squad is on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
When I saw Euro weeklies last night,combined with its MJO, it was like waving a rare steak in front of pit bull to me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
The God of Dry air awaits Erin, but look out, http://weatherbell.com sees classic US threat pattern evolving in coming weeks. More than ave

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2445. SouthernIllinois:

Lawns in the Panhandle of Florida are swamps, your lawn and Rita's is a desert. WHERE IS THE HAPPY MEDIAN PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!



The LANDMASS between LA and AL. Been nearly perfect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Central ATL blob at about 10 N 46 W

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2455. Times2
Quoting 2360. Patrap:


Umm ok the Blue Line!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2443. SouthernIllinois:

I feel for Viking! And I feel for you Chuck. And Doug. And Kristina! You guys HANG IN THERE!!!!!!!!


Thanks, it won't be long and you'll be gettin some off that other kind of precipitation that made my decision to move south from Ohio real easy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2437. Bluestorm5:
@RyanMaue 14m
NCEP reporting major disk error, GFS and other models are not available from NOMADS.


Mets are little concern about this.



Uh, oh! The blog will simply not be able to function. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2397. Skyepony:

Not at all. I've seen some streaming both data & webcam from restaurants on WU. WU has one on top of their building of business too.


Thanks Skye,

I offered to set the thing up for free, but I have zero experience with PWS. I see they have one for around a grand that's all automatic; do you have any recommendations as to brand or type? Suggested reading?
TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection is not everything. More importantly the LLC seems to be very well defined. If convection can develop over the center than this system can begin to organize
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
2450. FOREX
Quoting 2444. Kristina40:
The frogs seem to be really loving it. Everything else, not so much.


another downpour right now on Alf Coleman headed your way soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look like the models are fine again now... 12z run should be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its sleeping shhhh or you will wake it up



Can we make some noise and wake it up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
2446. ncstorm
00z Euro Ensembles for Erin..not so much north..

thanks Levi for the site..I had it last year as a favorite but got a new laptop and lost it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The frogs seem to be really loving it. Everything else, not so much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Definitely a sleeper.

its sleeping shhhh or you will wake it up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52273

Viewing: 2492 - 2442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.