Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1742. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Other not so to north..Look out!!!





Looks like a nightmare all those "potential" cyclones.
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1741. gator23
so 92L is toast? Any chance that ULL works its way down?
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BIG NOTE HERE FOLKS!

@EricBlake12 48s
#Erin marks the earliest formation of a 2nd tropical storm east of 30w in the tropical Atlantic, fwiw.
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Quoting 1690. kmanislander:


I do indeed. A wave that vigorous has a tendency to close off a low very soon after exiting the coast, say by 25W. If that happens the odds become very high that it will not make it across but recurve well East of the islands and Bermuda.

It is a very rare year when a closed low that far out tranverses all the way to threaten the Islands and the Conus. The Atl. high would need to be particularly potent and so far the set up this year has not demonstrated that.

In summary,it has the appearance of being another Erin. Right now the low is near 4 W and 11 N. The convection is off to the NW of the circulation.



Agreed 110%.
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Quoting 1726. JLPR2:
Erin isn't giving up so quickly, it's refiring over the center. Also a nice view of the disturbance in the CATL.



DMAX is starting to come to her aid.
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Quoting 1733. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Odds are one will make it to the US, not sure how strong, but as the high builds in each time one recurves around it. I am ready for crow if I'm wrong though. Just a speculation.

Others not so to north..Look out!!!
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Those are some very cold cloud tops that the wave behind Erin is firing!

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Quoting 1729. Skyepony:

They are destructive overland. Especially this time of year. Being Africa though usually it's a few days til it gets out. Like that event really happened Mon & Tuesday.. I try & look for them since many times damage reports are the closest thing to ground observations from there.

Hate to see them about to get slammed again like this..That thing has put on some raging convection in the last 4 hrs..



Destructive or not, the folks over those countries rely on the east African wave train every year for life providing rains. They also bring them fresh potable water to drink and relief from the daily tropical heat being so close to the equator.
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Quoting 1719. kmanislander:


Just saw a typo. Should have been "traverses" :-(


It happens to everyone, don't worry :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6166
Quoting 1728. stormchaser19:


GFS ensembles are showing strong vigorous waves over africa, this means recurve? Let's see, this has been the history..

Odds are one will make it to the US, not sure how strong, but as the high builds in each time one recurves around it. I am ready for crow if I'm wrong though. Just a speculation.
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That 43W system is not at all organized just saying and the waves coming off africa will have a rought time staying due west and not curving OTS
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Quoting 1716. will40:
Erin track shifts NW at fifth day and then is downgraded to Depression


Erin is a waste of time, Next In Line Please.
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1729. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1715. congaline:

You answered a question here I've been meaning to ask for a while, and that was if these big systems were destructive when overland. Obviously so. Thanks for the important info.

They are destructive overland. Especially this time of year. Being Africa though usually it's a few days til it gets out. Like that event really happened Mon & Tuesday.. I try & look for them since many times damage reports are the closest thing to ground observations from there.

Hate to see them about to get slammed again like this..That thing has put on some raging convection in the last 4 hrs..

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Quoting 1690. kmanislander:


I do indeed. A wave that vigorous has a tendency to close off a low very soon after exiting the coast, say by 25W. If that happens the odds become very high that it will not make it across but recurve well East of the islands and Bermuda.

It is a very rare year when a closed low that far out tranverses all the way to threaten the Islands and the Conus. The Atl. high would need to be particularly potent and so far the set up this year has not demonstrated that.

In summary,it has the appearance of being another Erin. Right now the low is near 4 W and 11 N. The convection is off to the NW of the circulation.



GFS ensembles are showing strong vigorous waves over africa, this means recurve? Let's see, this has been the history..

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Quoting 1721. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The warmest day of the summer thus has been August 12, when the high reached 95F and the low dipped to 75F. Three days later and we've experienced our lowest high temperature on record...71F. Current sitting at 64F.

That's cool man. Hey send some down this way. I am sweating out here, even inside my house with AC. Ughh.
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1726. JLPR2
Erin isn't giving up so quickly, it's refiring over the center. Also a nice view of the disturbance in the CATL.

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One last look. Still building. See you all in the morning.

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1724. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


JTWC 98W
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Look how dry it is over NW Florida! Go West 92L, go West!

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Anything to make of the split on 92L? The portion to the West of Cuba, does it have any chance of becoming a separate entity?
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The warmest day of the summer thus has been August 12, when the high reached 95F and the low dipped to 77F. Three days later and we've experienced our lowest high temperature on record...71F. Currently sitting at 64F.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31983
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Quoting 1717. CaribBoy:


Please nooo XD


Just saw a typo. Should have been "traverses" :-(
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In my Darth Vader voice, "The cone of uncertainty."

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Quoting 1690. kmanislander:


I do indeed. A wave that vigorous has a tendency to close off a low very soon after exiting the coast, say by 25W. If that happens the odds become very high that it will not make it across but recurve well East of the islands and Bermuda.

It is a very rare year when a closed low that far out tranverses all the way to threaten the Islands and the Conus. The Atl. high would need to be particularly potent and so far the set up this year has not demonstrated that.

In summary,it has the appearance of being another Erin. Right now the low is near 4 W and 11 N. The convection is off to the NW of the circulation.



Please nooo XD
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1716. will40
Erin track shifts NW at fifth day and then is downgraded to Depression
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Quoting 1704. Skyepony:
Gambia got wrecked but that was from Pre-Erin.. They got this other African Landblob about to hit them.

Extreme Weather in Gambia on Thursday, 15 August, 2013 at 05:14 (05:14 AM) UTC.
Description
Torrential rain and flash flood have affected thousands of people in different communities across the Gambia, Coordinator of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) Binta Sey Jadama said on Wednesday. According to the official, the torrential rain that lasted for more than 24 hours Monday through Tuesday night, has inundated several households, causing temporal displacement and the destruction of properties and foodstuff in the tiny West African nation. In Churchill's Town in the Greater Banjul area, roads were not accessible due to the heavy downpour. Vehicles, motor bicycles and pedestrians were swerved away by floods, but so far no death has been reported yet. The drainage system which was dug to mitigate flood was completely blocked and the main bridge toward the Tourism Development Area was also submerged, which halt the traffic for more than two hours. Rescue workers, including Red Cross, Police and officials of the National Road Authority (NRA), spent the rest of the day draining the water. In Upper River Region of the Gambia, the main river that divides the region into two parts was overflooded and ran into the market area in Basse, which affected many residents and vendors. According to the meteorological data, the heavy rain recorded unprecedented volume of 101.2 milliliters. In the past two years, flooding caused millions of dollars in losses in the Gambia and also reduced the earnings of many farmers in the country.

You answered a question here I've been meaning to ask for a while, and that was if these big systems were destructive when overland. Obviously so. Thanks for the important info.
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Hello everyone.....I can't believe how off the Shear graphics are off on Invest 92L....this is not even close!




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Quoting 1687. Levi32:
Check out the latitude on that African wave on the CFS Day 4 forecast:



Finally a wave with a "more normal" latitude XD
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Quoting 1709. Llamaluvr:
I am almost certain it was somebody from Portugal
Christiano Ronaldo? :P
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1711. Skyepony (Mod)
Erin in the upper right..
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This morning



Tonight



The takeaway from the images is that tonight is a tighter circulation, less elongated East to West and somewhat better defined. Not great, but getting there.
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Quoting 1666. SuperStorm093:
actually no you didnt, someone mentioned it here yesterday and I forget the name.
I am almost certain it was somebody from Portugal
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Probably not reading this right, but that big red blob coming up from the south looks like it is going to cause a bit of a event on the west coast of Florida
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that blog looks to hit the CV head on and disrupt it, I think the GFS shows that.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925

in its present incarnation
the most recent omg wave in east Africa
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TW at 45W does look a bit sneaky to me.
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1704. Skyepony (Mod)
Gambia (West Africa) got wrecked from Pre-Erin.. They got this other African Landblob about to hit them.

Extreme Weather in Gambia on Thursday, 15 August, 2013 at 05:14 (05:14 AM) UTC.
Description
Torrential rain and flash flood have affected thousands of people in different communities across the Gambia, Coordinator of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) Binta Sey Jadama said on Wednesday. According to the official, the torrential rain that lasted for more than 24 hours Monday through Tuesday night, has inundated several households, causing temporal displacement and the destruction of properties and foodstuff in the tiny West African nation. In Churchill's Town in the Greater Banjul area, roads were not accessible due to the heavy downpour. Vehicles, motor bicycles and pedestrians were swerved away by floods, but so far no death has been reported yet. The drainage system which was dug to mitigate flood was completely blocked and the main bridge toward the Tourism Development Area was also submerged, which halt the traffic for more than two hours. Rescue workers, including Red Cross, Police and officials of the National Road Authority (NRA), spent the rest of the day draining the water. In Upper River Region of the Gambia, the main river that divides the region into two parts was overflooded and ran into the market area in Basse, which affected many residents and vendors. According to the meteorological data, the heavy rain recorded unprecedented volume of 101.2 milliliters. In the past two years, flooding caused millions of dollars in losses in the Gambia and also reduced the earnings of many farmers in the country.
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Quoting 1695. hydrus:
I would be wild to see hurricane watches that far south.
I love this map! :D
+1,000,000 hydrus you hit the spot ;)
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1702. Levi32
Quoting 1694. kmanislander:


Almost in the Southern hemisphere.

Not sure how it gets there from above 10 where it already is.


The CFS is a climate model, that's how.
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1701. Levi32
Quoting 1689. CybrTeddy:


Funny how the GFS is showing it ending up well north of the islands. How did the CFS verify with latitude on Erin?


Actually not so great lol.

72-hour forecast valid today:



96-hour forecast valid tomorrow:

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1700. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST August 16 2013
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Utor (996 hPa) located at 25.0N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

System #2
---------

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Japan

Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 23.5N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
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Quoting 1627. JLPR2:
I see a few of you are watching the disturbance around 42-43W.



Hmm... Now if this one managed to develop it would be quite the surprise.


We would finally see something else and more interesting than storms like Dorian and Erin XD
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1698. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
9:00 AM JST August 16 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Ishigaki Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 22.8N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.5N 124.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) south of Ishigaki Island
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Quoting 1677. Relix:
Kman, I have been watching 43W for a while (Pouch 20). I think tomorrow will be its lucky day.


It might even get lucky tonight !
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1695. hydrus
Quoting 1687. Levi32:
Check out the latitude on that African wave on the CFS Day 4 forecast:

It would be wild to see hurricane watches that far south.
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Quoting 1687. Levi32:
Check out the latitude on that African wave on the CFS Day 4 forecast:



Almost in the Southern hemisphere.

Not sure how it gets there from above 10 where it already is.
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Quoting 1620. kmanislander:
Good evening

This feature out near 43 W that I have been watching is starting to become more interesting.Still lots of room for this to develop before it reaches the islands.



Correct.... ***Before it reaches Caribboy*** XD XD
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Quoting 1674. sar2401:

Yes indeed, quite spectacular. I've seen a few of these traveling through northern Arizona and New Mexico, and you can count on a few reports of UFO's right after the event. :-) I knew the Clovis/White Sands corridor has a number of supercells but I thought they usually came during the summer monsoons. I also thought actual tornadoes were fairly rare for the reason you stated. Even a "humid" day in Clovis during the monsoons will be something like a temperature of 90 and dewpoint of 63.


Yeah the monsoon season is definitely a good time of year for these storms, but that seems to favor western New Mexico and Arizona more. It certainly does impact eastern New Mexico as well tho.

In May and June, Eastern New Mexico and the adjacent parts of Texas tend to see a lot of storms. Depending on the location of the dryline, there can be some decent supercells. Clovis, however, is usually on the dry side.

One thing that part of New Mexico does have in its favor is elevation. The higher your elevation, the lower the dewpoint necessary for tornadogenesis. There was a tornado on the "cap rock" in the Texas Panhandle back in April when the dewpoint was 48 degrees. That's a rarity!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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