Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Hope that ULL and shear shread 92L to pieces. Models keep dancing around my area. Not in the mood for any tropical mess.
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Quoting 1758. Gearsts:
Please wave do something im here waiting!


RI + slow WNW motion would be very nice XD
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6454
Major Hurricane strikes by counties in FL. from 1900-2010. Last one was Wilma in 2005.

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What I've been seeing over the last few hours is a lot of moisture being pulled north and then east over central Florida. The ULL seems to be pulling everything it can from the developing system as it pulls out.
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1786. 7544
Quoting 1778. TampaBayStormChaser:
Florida's west coast could see some strong storms tonight if that large cluster in the SE GOM holds together. The ULL to the west is ventilating it, and it is in a zero shear environment. It is moving quickly North and NNE.


and looks better than who 92 what im watching that blob instead as the ull will steer it n or even ne over from the fl west to the east coast but will something form before it hits land wait watch and see
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Quoting 1781. CaribBoy:


LARGE storms in the 1979 picture!!! I can see wet & slow Frederic approaching the Leewards.

Lol we just can't compare this with pathetic Chantal, Dorian, and Erin... Their wind field is ridiculous :/


That's for sure and with a capital P for pathetic!
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Convection finally waning in 92L after hours on land and DMIN. Let's try not to plan a funeral so quickly this time, and let DMAX roll through.
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Looks like a couple nice waves to come off Africa this week...we will see what they do.........TS Erin per models most likely goes fishing......the wave heading to the islands has not been forecast to do anything....the only places to look are at 92L and Africa.....IMO
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Major Hurricane Return Period for the CONUS:

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Quoting 1744. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's very similar to the parade of storms we saw in 1998?



or '95



or '79



LARGE storms in the 1979 picture!!! I can see wet & slow Frederic approaching the Leewards.

Lol we just can't compare this with pathetic Chantal, Dorian, and Erin... Their wind field is ridiculous :/
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6454
Quoting 1772. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This I find rather astonishing that only a few Category 5 Hurricanes actually recurved OTS. Look at the cluster over the Central-Western Gulf. Notice all but 1 avoided Hispaniola.



Caleb, you come up w/ some of the coolest images sometimes.
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1779. SLU
Quoting 1740. Bluestorm5:
BIG NOTE HERE FOLKS!

@EricBlake12 48s
#Erin marks the earliest formation of a 2nd tropical storm east of 30w in the tropical Atlantic, fwiw.


Massive development there. Got to love Blake. Always on the ball.
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anyone can speak up...questions,answers etc....they just kinda like ya to keep it on subject
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Quoting 1769. lobdelse81:
Why has all the attention all of a sudden shifted to the African coast and not 92L?


Well, for me, a wave that is currently crossing a land mass versus a current tropical storm and an incoming powerful wave makes me tend to look more towards Africa than the U.S./GOM.
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Quoting 1768. Drakoen:


Yes.
Thanks Drakoen!
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Quoting 1769. lobdelse81:
Why has all the attention all of a sudden shifted to the African coast and not 92L?


Because even if it develops, it's going to be weak and relatively inconsequential.
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Quoting 1769. lobdelse81:
Why has all the attention all of a sudden shifted to the African coast and not 92L?


The blog is a very heated area, so physics dictates that we gravitate towards those freezing cloud tops.
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This I find rather astonishing that only a few Category 5 Hurricanes actually recurved OTS. Look at the cluster over the Central-Western Gulf. Notice all but 1 avoided Hispaniola.

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I would say keep your eyes on everything til its well inland... esp these Cape Verde waves. This is a big mess for sure.
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Quoting 1765. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Class


Good evening, Joe. From the "I don't know enough to dare speak during these times but perhaps I can during the night shift" crew.
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Why has all the attention all of a sudden shifted to the African coast and not 92L?
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1768. Drakoen
Quoting 1760. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So if I get this straight, there is a surface ridge, a mid-level ridge, and an upper level ridge, same goes for troughs?


Yes.
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I was blogging with TA in chat and I really trust his judgement. I asked him about the convection and weak surface circulation off of Cuba's West Coast. He assured me that it was just in association with the ULL and had little chance at development. I'm probably way off here, but with the ULL to the West of this convection blob, won't this help this possibly spin up with little shear and conducive SST's? Just looks to me like an area of possible interest.
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CIMSS has the lower level structure of 92L over the northwestern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula at the moment. At this rate, it will be in the norheast BOC/southern GOM in time for DMAX.

Get ready for a wild ride, I say.
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Good Evening Class
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1764. Relix
Quoting 1758. Gearsts:
Please wave do something im here waiting!


I have high hopes for it
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Yeah so much for this season being a bust as much as 4 days ago!!
Member Since: August 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 456
Watching the radar, looks like the ULL in the GOM is moving up and possibly about to be caught up in that front.
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Very presumptuous , that we are going to have recurves this year , with that blocking high ! I just don't get this scenario , guess I really don't get it , but I really do , when you have a road block in your way , you recurve really LOL! Seems real simple , no recurves , I am sorry people don't get it ! Good Night All , see you in the AM .
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Quoting 1753. ncstorm:
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE. IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW
ENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
So if I get this straight, there is a surface ridge, a mid-level ridge, and an upper level ridge, same goes for troughs?
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Quoting 1757. ncstorm:
Good night yall..We'll do this again tomorrow..


Night NC. :)
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1758. Gearsts
Please wave do something im here waiting!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1993
1757. ncstorm
Good night yall..We'll do this again tomorrow..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
1756. Gearsts
Quoting 1746. Tropicsweatherpr:


Here comes the action in MDR.
CFS showing the same
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1993
1755. Matt74
Quoting 1731. DavidHOUTX:
Wish that would verify. The local mets don't seem so optimistic.
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Well they move it slower but pretty much reads the same as last forecast.

GMZ001-161430-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1019 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N89W.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NEAR 21N91W EARLY FRI...NEAR 22N92W LATE FRI...REACH NEAR 23N93W
EARLY SAT...NEAR 25N93W LATE SAT...NEAR 27N93W LATE SUN...NEAR
29N94W LATE LATE MON...AND MOVE INLAND LATE TUE OVER SW
LOUISIANA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

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1753. ncstorm
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE. IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW
ENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
GFS ensemble mean, this ridge looks well established...Uh oh!!!
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Quoting 1742. HadesGodWyvern:





Looks like a nightmare all those "potential" cyclones.
all to far to the north all fish storms
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100956
Quoting 1735. Chucktown:
Destructive or not, the folks over those countries rely on the east African wave train every year for life providing rains. They also bring them fresh potable water to drink and relief from the daily tropical heat being so close to the equator.


Well one thing is certain they happen every year so it must be something the people of that region are aware of and prepared for to some extent. We all depend on these storms to ventilate the earth and redistribute moisture. Will that system which already seems to have a circulation become an instant Tropical storm, or does it lose power when it first goes over water?
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Erin is coming west, late in the forecast, my opinion Erin becomes a hurricane and dry air does not become an issue as she intensifies with moisture from the monsoon trough. Bermuda high is weak currently, but should strengthen as the trough over Bermuda will move northeastward out of the way to the north of the ridge and get caught up in the westerlies and head for Europe. The ridge builds back in from the east and then the northwest as a new ridge heads into the Northeastern US and Atlantic Canada, as shown by building heights on the EURO and GFS 8-10 day forecasts. Teleconnections support this in North America.
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1748. JLPR2
Quoting 1743. Gearsts:
hmmm


Jeez, that's all over the place.
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1747. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1742. HadesGodWyvern:





Looks like a nightmare all those "potential" cyclones.
maybe a horror movie
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
Quoting 1743. Gearsts:
hmmm


Here comes the action in MDR.
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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING MOST OF
THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY A SMALL BURST HAS FORMED EAST
OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPARENTLY WEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SEEMS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BUT A LIMITING
FACTOR OF MARGINAL SSTS. IN A FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD FACILITATE RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTRAL
CORE OF ERIN. THUS...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING
AFTER DAY 3...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

MICROWAVE FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/13. THIS GENERAL
COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE. IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW
ENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
COULD STILL BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100956
Quoting 1737. stormchaser19:

Other not so to north..Look out!!!
It's very similar to the parade of storms we saw in 1998?



or '95



or '79

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1743. Gearsts
hmmm
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1993
1742. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Other not so to north..Look out!!!





Looks like a nightmare all those "potential" cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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