Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1842. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:


I know where they placed it, but that is over 4 hours out of date by now. What I see now and the vorticity shown by CIMSS makes me think it has moved WNW and off the peninsula.

I see a few swirls of clouds at about 23N, 89W. Is this where you think there's a low?
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Quoting 1833. TexasHurricane05:


Hi AtHome...when will it get back over water?


Umm early Friday? Did you read comment 1754?
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Quoting 1821. BahaHurican:
Good morning all... lol...

I had an unexpectedly busy day today, but I did have to stop in for 2 minutes to see what's kickin'... and I see we did get Erin as expect from TD5... What's the sitch on 92L?



Read back a few pages and you be all up to date on 92L
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Quoting 1800. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I am so glad louisianaweatherboy444 reminded us that DMIN/DMAX cycle is reversed over land, I had totally spaced that. Look at that breaking off cyclone in 92L. It was just a little bitty blob when I left for work.

What remains of the Srn half? Is there a llc like there was at noon today - which was *over LAND, mind you -?
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Deja Vu
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Looks like a mucky mess to me : )
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1836. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Last but not least the Northeast. Last one was Carol 1954? "The hurricane continued north-northeastward with a forward motion of up to 39 mph (63 km/h),[2] and Carol intensified further to make landfall on eastern Long Island as an upper Category 2 or a Category 3 hurricane." Link

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Man there is this nothing lift with 92L rip


Erin not looking good right now two


Night
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Quoting 1829. AtHomeInTX:


Hey Baha. Just waiting for 92L to get back in the water to see what it will do.


Hi AtHome...when will it get back over water?
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1832. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
12:00 PM JST August 16 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Ishigaki Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 22.7N 123.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.5N 124.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) south of Ishigaki Island
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Quoting 1821. BahaHurican:
Good morning all... lol...

I had an unexpectedly busy day today, but I did have to stop in for 2 minutes to see what's kickin'... and I see we did get Erin as expect from TD5... What's the sitch on 92L?


HEY how you been!
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Quoting 1825. HurricaneHunterJoe:
One big mucky mess.....LOL


I was going to respond that it depends who you ask
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 1821. BahaHurican:
Good morning all... lol...

I had an unexpectedly busy day today, but I did have to stop in for 2 minutes to see what's kickin'... and I see we did get Erin as expect from TD5... What's the sitch on 92L?


Hey Baha. Just waiting for 92L to get back in the water to see what it will do.
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Hey Baha, how goes it?
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1827. Gearsts
Quoting 1818. flsky:




They both look like van Gogh paintings.
Name of the big one over the islands?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Quoting 1821. BahaHurican:
Good morning all... lol...

I had an unexpectedly busy day today, but I did have to stop in for 2 minutes to see what's kickin'... and I see we did get Erin as expect from TD5... What's the sitch on 92L?


ULL taking care of 92L....just lots of rain coming to areas that don't need any rain. Erin is likely a fish only storm.
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One big mucky mess.....LOL
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Quoting 1813. sar2401:

Go to the AVN Loop, then click on"fronts", so you can see where the NHC thinks the low is. It's much further south than 21.5.


I know where they placed it, but that is over 4 hours out of date by now. What I see now and the vorticity shown by CIMSS makes me think it has moved WNW and off the peninsula.
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1822. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Good morning all... lol...

I had an unexpectedly busy day today, but I did have to stop in for 2 minutes to see what's kickin'... and I see we did get Erin as expect from TD5... What's the sitch on 92L?
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Quoting 1806. LAbonbon:


This is quite intriguing. No hits on Cuba??



I'm very curious as to why.. Maybe someone can shed some insight into this?
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"Monster quake hits Wellington" NZ

The strong earthquake to hit Wellington this afternoon has been described as a "monster".

The 6.2 quake which hit at 2:31pm was at a depth of 8km and was centred 10.8 kilometres south-east of Seddon.

Seddon resident Murray Jones has described the quake as a "monster, that ripped everything off the walls."

"Mirrors fell off the walls, there's a lot more damage," he told ONE News.

Mr Jones said he would be leaving Seddon tonight, as it's "not safe."

"I'm very shaken," he said.

Mr Jones says the many aftershocks since the big one have been non-stop.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/monster-quake-hit s-wellington-5534774
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1818. flsky




They both look like van Gogh paintings.
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1817. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
1816. 7544
Quoting 1812. TexasHurricane05:


thats the blob im watching and its getting bigger just north of cuba
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Quoting 1811. sar2401:

I'm all in favor of shredding. If the low is where I think it is, at 18N, 90W, it's doing its best to stay on land and run SW, away from the ULL and shear. Should be interesting to see where the NHC puts this low on the next update.
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1813. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:


What blob? On the shortwave IR, I see a spin at 21.5N, 90W moving WNW, just barely off the the coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

Go to the AVN Loop, then click on"fronts", so you can see where the NHC thinks the low is. It's much further south than 21.5.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13431
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1811. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Paul - ssshh...I think those of us that root for the shredding are in a minority here :P

I'm all in favor of shredding. If the low is where I think it is, at 18N, 90W, it's doing its best to stay on land and run SW, away from the ULL and shear. Should be interesting to see where the NHC puts this low on the next update.
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Quoting 1795. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Major Hurricane strikes by counties in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas from 1900-2010. Last one was Rita in 2005.





Rita is the reason I got interested in Hurricanes. We had to evacuate for her...power out for 2 weeks.
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Quoting 1803. sar2401:

Looks like another blob following the other blobs to Cuba. I believe the actual low is at 18N, 90W, and is headed SW on the Yucatan Peninsula.


What blob? I'm not looking at a blob right now, there's almost no convection in what I'm seeing right now. On the shortwave IR, I see a spin at 21.5N, 90W moving WNW, just barely off the the coast of the Yucatan peninsula.
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One group of thunderstorms right now in the U.S. Just exiting Kansas now and moving into Oklahoma:



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Quoting 1772. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This I find rather astonishing that only a few Category 5 Hurricanes actually recurved OTS. Look at the cluster over the Central-Western Gulf. Notice all but 1 avoided Hispaniola.



This is quite intriguing. No hits on Cuba??
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1805. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
WOW....FLOODING is really gonna be a big problem inland...BIG TIME!

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1803. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:
Aha! I think the swirl just emerged off the NW end Yucatan peninsula - it's very faint, but there definitely seems to be something moving from under the thunderstorms and into the GOM. Easiest to see on the shortwave IR option on the 92L floater. I'd try to link it or put up a gif but those buttons won't appear for me...

Looks like another blob following the other blobs to Cuba. I believe the actual low is at 18N, 90W, and is headed SW on the Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13431
Major Hurricane strikes by counties in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland, from 1900-2010. Last one was Fran in 1996.


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1801. 7544
Quoting 1797. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I believe that is the forecast....mid level moisture NNE and the rest goes W/WNW as of now anyway....lol.....stay tuned


hi joe just asking looks like a split now from 92l the little red ball just north now off cuba will the ull low steer that convection n or ne or the front does that coming down now waiting to see how big the little red area will grow in the hot bath could it pull fast one tho lol thanks
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Quoting 1790. mynameispaul:
Hope that ULL and shear shread 92L to pieces. Models keep dancing around my area. Not in the mood for any tropical mess.


Paul - ssshh...I think those of us that root for the shredding are in a minority here :P
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Any one know if the wave at 40W is supposed to get out of the ITCZ and have to fend for itself?
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Quoting 1787. animalrsq:
What I've been seeing over the last few hours is a lot of moisture being pulled north and then east over central Florida. The ULL seems to be pulling everything it can from the developing system as it pulls out.


I believe that is the forecast....mid level moisture NNE and the rest goes W/WNW as of now anyway....lol.....stay tuned
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Quoting 1772. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This I find rather astonishing that only a few Category 5 Hurricanes actually recurved OTS. Look at the cluster over the Central-Western Gulf. Notice all but 1 avoided Hispaniola.



Also of note, check out all those Florida storms going thru Herbert's Box #1
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Major Hurricane strikes by counties in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas from 1900-2010. Last one was Rita in 2005.



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Aha! I think the swirl just emerged off the NW end Yucatan peninsula - it's very faint, but there definitely seems to be something moving from under the thunderstorms and into the GOM. Easiest to see on the shortwave IR option on the 92L floater. I'd try to link it or put up a gif but those buttons won't appear for me...
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08/15/2013 Daily Update - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

This is a long loop animation from the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector imagery. Featured is the designation of TS Erin earlier today and the track conditions ahead of TS Erin, including tracking forecasts by the NHC for 08/15/2013.

There is also an area of interest near the Yucatan Peninsula on 08/15/2013. Watch out for this one!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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