Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1875. TexasHurricane05:


so, the blob by TX is this 92L or something else supposedly down the road?


Seems to be 92l.
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Quoting 1876. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think people are forgetting that it's historically likely that a storm originating near the Cape Verde Islands recurves anyways.
I'm entirely happy with a storm originating near the CVIs recurving early, especially if it can do so in an excitingly explosive fashion.

I am a little less excited by sneaky CVI originating storms that masquerade as TS's ready to give up the ghost at any moment until they hit the sweet spot at 55W.... only to blow up in an excitingly explosive fashion.

I hope models are correct about Erin fading away, and if not, that we see an early exit stage right.
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1890. sar2401
Holy cow! I just looked over at my weather station and it's 69 degrees here in SE AL. I haven't seen a temperature below 70, day or night, since July 3. This may not mean much to you northerners, but, if we can get down to 67 tonight, we'll tie the record. I need to go look for my parka. :-)
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Thank You LAbonbon and thank you Sar for your responses to post 1851 really. I really appreciate it your help. :)
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Quoting 1883. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm not liking this pattern at all, notice the ridging developing over the Canadian Maritimes. And this could act as a block for storms trying to head all the way OTS. Again this is fantasy land so air on the side of caution and don't lose sleep over this. However, the pattern is still a tricky one and is not set in stone.



The pattern shouldnt be bad, it recurves them all.
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Evening all.

As I thought, if things were going to get active it would be around Aug. 15th per the usual for the tropical atlantic and sure enough many weeks after the dorian saga we have an overall much improved weather situation, for tropical development that is, in the tropical atlantic.


The most interesting feature right now is, IMO, 92L. Erin is not likely to have a very favorable environment several days from now and there are rather good chances this will end up killing the storm. Conversely, if it does develop it would be subject to deep layer steering and become a fish storm.

The latest model runs for 92L however, and for several days from now around the 20th and 29th, are for more interesting showing a vigorous storm in the mid atlantic in a locked in westward motion, as well as showing that 92L could become a tropical storm and impact either Texas or Louisiana next week sometime.


92L does not appear very organized at this time, and appears to be suffering possibly from some light shear from the north as part of an ongoing upperlevel flow over Texas that is blasting off the Texas coast and out into the gulf. This flow is starting to weaken as we reach the back end of the summer now, and this means the shear associated with it is dropping. Its unclear right now whether 92L will be able to pull itself together tomorrow into a more concise system, but regardless of this the recent trend which has the Texas high and upper flow weakening means any future systems in the gulf will be far more interesting to watch.

In any case, 92L should be a good rainmaker if it makes it to the gulf coast.


Bottom line however, is that now that we are past the 15th of August the real season has begun. Personally I think we are going to have a below average season and I no longer agree with the current predicted number of named storms, I recently changed my thinking to this after looking at MDR ssts as well as the general persistent trend of moderate shear in much of the tropical Atlantic, something I'd have expected to be dissipating by now. There is still a chance for us to have a "fast and furious" season which bears out all current predictions or exceeds them, it simply does so in a matter of 3 weeks between the end of august and the third week of September, but I think the chance of this occurring may be diminishing, and I should hope so given that neither the gulf coast nor the east coast wants another big storm after the last several years. Remains to be seen what will happen so just get your work hats on and strap in for the ride, because now is the actual season.
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Link

This is what I'm seeing. Circulation is apparent on loops.
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1884. sar2401
Quoting TexasHurricane05:


so, the blob by TX is this 92L or something else supposedly down the road?

I'm not sure which blobs you are talking about, but the ones right in Texas and just offshore are from waves moving along a stalled front that stretches from west Texas out into the Atlantic.
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I'm not liking this pattern at all, notice the ridging developing over the Canadian Maritimes. And this could act as a block for storms trying to head all the way OTS. Again this is fantasy land so air on the side of caution and don't lose sleep over this. However, the pattern is still a tricky one and is not set in stone.

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Next wave, stronger, next wave stronger..... even over land...

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Quoting 1871. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hurricane 6 (1938 New England Hurricane)... "It then made a second landfall near Bridgeport, Connecticut, with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a slightly higher pressure of 946 mbar (27.94 inHg)."

Link


From the same source:

"The full force of the hurricane started to reach Long Island after 2:30 pm EDT, and the eye made landfall at Bayport in Suffolk County shortly after 3:00 pm EDT. By 4:00 pm EDT, the eye had crossed Long Island Sound and was making a second landfall just east of New Haven, Connecticut.

Modern analyses reveal that the hurricane was at Category 3 intensity at both landfalls and place the maximum sustained winds in the 120–125 m.p.h. range."
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Quoting 1876. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think people are forgetting that it's historically likely that a storm originating near the Cape Verde Islands recurves anyways.
That's true but every so many years it doesn't.
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do I see four storms at the same time in 84 hours!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 47 Comments: 78029
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1877. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sar I need your help can you tell me when was the last major hurricane to hit the northeast I mean make landfall with winds of 115 mph. or greater. I found Carol from 1954, but according to the article from wiki it seems unsure whether it was a strong Cat. 2 or weak Cat. 3 hurricane?

I think the 1938 "Long Island Express is the only definite cat 3 of the 20th century. Some of the wind readings from both Carol and Hazel were very close to cat 3, but the NHC, I believe, still lists them as cat 2's officially.
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I think people are forgetting that it's historically likely that a storm originating near the Cape Verde Islands recurves anyways.
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Quoting 1866. unknowncomic:
All sorts of surprises on the way.



so, the blob by TX is this 92L or something else supposedly down the road?
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
And the football game continues....92-L on offense, decimated by injuries, taking on the Defense of
ULL....
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1873. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
Run from weather in "style"

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Quoting 1862. LAbonbon:


Not sure on Carol, but 1938 Hurricane was 120-125 mph sustained.
Hurricane 6 (1938 New England Hurricane)... "It then made a second landfall near Bridgeport, Connecticut, with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a slightly higher pressure of 946 mbar (27.94 inHg)."

Link
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Quoting 1867. stormchaser19:
The bust season has just started LOL


I see a FANTASY land run of the GFS showing a recurved storm. what exactly are you seeing
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Quoting 1856. redwagon:


Four days later, the reality of the split you posted four days ago of 92L is slowly starting to sink in. Any fresh Ascats you seen?


Not recently.
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Quoting 1864. sar2401:

OK, so that small light blue spot almost directly east of the Yucatan, almost opposite the 1012 isobar?

Boy, if nothing else shows the innate weakness of 92L, it's having to hunt for the low. :-)


No, it's just off of Progreso.
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The bust season has just started LOL
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All sorts of surprises on the way.

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Quoting 1863. SuperStorm093:
Say hello to the year of the Re-curves..
that right and weak storms to
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1864. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:


Southeast of there. It's pretty much juuuust off the coast right now.

Edit: You can see it better in Gearsts' map.

OK, so that small light blue spot almost directly east of the Yucatan, almost opposite the 1012 isobar?

Boy, if nothing else shows the innate weakness of 92L, it's having to hunt for the low. :-)
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Say hello to the year of the Re-curves..
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Quoting 1851. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sar I need your help can you tell me when was the last major hurricane to hit the northeast I mean make landfall with winds of 115 mph. or greater. I found Carol from 1954, but according to the article from wiki it seems unsure whether it was a strong Cat. 2 or weak Cat. 3 hurricane?


Not sure on Carol, but 1938 Hurricane was 120-125 mph sustained.
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Gabrielle?

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WOW! LOL

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Quoting 1844. Gearsts:
Look closely.


Could be the Main Low in the exact area I said it was and was shot down by Levi.
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1857. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks like a mucky mess to me : )

Barry at least made it into Belize as a TD on June 17. It traveled from Belize across the Yucatan, and started to intensify by early morning on the 19th. HH's found imputed 45 mph winds on the afternoon of the 19th. By early afternoon on the 2oth, Barry made landfall near Veracruz, and degenerated to a remnant low by late that evening. The remnant headed inland and was never heard from again.
92L has never been as well organized as Barry, and doesn't look any better organized now. Once it does get into the BOC, it will be lucky to make it to minimal TD status. It will last about 24 hours, head into Mexico, and never be heard from again. I can see virtually no difference between 92L and Barry in terms of outcome, except that 92L may never actually get classified.
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Quoting 1841. AtHomeInTX:


Umm early Friday? Did you read comment 1754?


Four days later, the reality of the split you posted four days ago of 92L is slowly starting to sink in. Any fresh Ascats you seen?
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Wave in front of Erin making a move.



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Quoting 1844. Gearsts:
Look closely.
Hmmm... looks like some rainy wx rushing towards the central TX coast... seems really weird to see that after the last couple years of just about nothing...

The really obvious circulation in the central GOM is the alleged ULL ya'll r talking about?
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Quoting 1840. Tazmanian:



Read back a few pages and you be all up to date on 92L
Yah... usually I do that as a matter of course, but I bein' lazy tonight... :o)

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Quoting 1842. sar2401:

I see a few swirls of clouds at about 23N, 89W. Is this where you think there's a low?


Southeast of there. It's pretty much juuuust off the coast right now.

Edit: You can see it better in Gearsts' map.
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Quoting 1842. sar2401:

I see a few swirls of clouds at about 23N, 89W. Is this where you think there's a low?
Sar I need your help can you tell me when was the last major hurricane to hit the northeast I mean make landfall with winds of 115 mph. or greater. I found Carol from 1954, but according to the article from wiki it seems unsure whether it was a strong Cat. 2 or weak Cat. 3 hurricane?
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1850. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1946
Quoting 1820. yankees440:



I'm very curious as to why.. Maybe someone can shed some insight into this?


Can't shed any insight, but I don't think that lovely graphic is entirely correct.

From wiki:

"The 1932 Cuba hurricane was a powerful and deadly late-season hurricane during the 1932 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the fourteenth tropical storm, fifth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 1932 season.[1] The strongest Atlantic hurricane (and only Category 5 hurricane) ever recorded in the month of November, it devastated eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, resulting in at least 3,103 deaths, making it one of the deadliest hurricanes of the 20th century."

Link

It went over the island from the SW to the NE, and hit as a Cat 4.
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Quoting 1831. TampaSpin:


HEY how you been!
Pretty good... I had a great time in the US, but it's good to be home. I didn't get over to the west coast this trip... maybe next time...
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I see you 92L trying to go towards NOLA. Anyways 48 hrs. until we find out if all the models that had 92L developing into a tropical storm at one point or another bust. Which I think is all of them. :P

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Quoting 1782. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Major Hurricane Return Period for the CONUS:



Great map Caleb. It is interesting that Central Maine has a return period of 290 years. I wonder if there is record of a major 'cane hitting Maine or if this is conjecture.
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Quoting 1828. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hey Baha, how goes it?
Pretty cool, actually... we had overcast skies for most of the day from 92L [more or less]... I haven't looked at much yet but wouldn't be surprised to see some substantial totals for precipitation over parts of S FL, including the Keys...
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1844. Gearsts
Look closely.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1946
1843. Gearsts
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1842. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:


I know where they placed it, but that is over 4 hours out of date by now. What I see now and the vorticity shown by CIMSS makes me think it has moved WNW and off the peninsula.

I see a few swirls of clouds at about 23N, 89W. Is this where you think there's a low?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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