Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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1942. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Get ready for your daily onslaught of lows from yours truly CMC.


Really. I'm not sure if it's Levi's software or the real CMC, but some Canadian meteorologist has to at least look at the output over a cup of coffee and say "Hey, wait a minute....there are 35 lows on this chart....something's not right...", or so I would think. Way back in the days when I was in college and wanted to be a meteorologist, we had to work out surface maps based on station reports and drawing the isobars. My professor would have thrown me out a window if I handed in something like that. :-)
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Can't say I'm surprised.

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Sar , what part of Cleveland did you grow up?
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Blobulous
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Laughable the CMC does a fujiwhara with Erin weakens it and bombs out 92L as it heads into Texas.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
1936. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Ok, whew, done. With homework. Now I must get up in 6 hours to start all over again. Night everyone.

GN, Astro. At least when you graduate, you get paid to work your buns off. The bad news is you have to work twice as hard. :-)
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1935. sar2401
Quoting lobdelse81:
I wonder if there is any correlation between the early intrusions of fall-like air across the CONUS in recent years and the tendency of hurricanes to re-curve out to sea. I thought back in May and June people on this blog kept preaching that the Bermuda high would be oriented differently and drive tropical systems towards the US.

There really haven't been a lot of cold air intrusions this year. This is only the second one this year, and it's not uncommon to see more than that. As I remember from being a kid in Cleveland, every time we wanted to go swimming, the high would drop into the low 70's from the high 80's. Never failed.

The position of the A-B high has yet to show us its stuff because there hasn't been a strong enough storm to test it. The orientation fo the A-B (Azores-Bermuda) high really hasn't changed. The 1016 millibar isobar on a surface map is sort of like a highway for storms. They like to travel ion highways where the pressure is between 1014 and 1016. If that lines stretch all the way across the Atlantic, a storm that forms around 15N usually won't be strong enough to break through the high,so it will travel almost straight west and hit the Caribbean Islands, Central America, or the Gulf or Atlantic coasts. If the A-B high moves further north or shrinks, that 1016 highway usually shrinks with it, which means storms turn north and follow it out to sea.

Now, all this is just general principles. For example, it only takes a slight bend or weakness in that 1016 isobar and a storm that otherwise would hit the CONUS can streak north instead. You can also have the A-B high expand in a period of two or three days and drive what looked like a fish storm right into the Carolinas, for instance. Every storm is different, and subject to different conditions. That's why you should take with a grain of salt anyone who says "if X happens, Y will always happen (or not)". If all weather followed the rules, the NHC could have worked out hurricane forecasting back in the days of slide rules.
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Quoting 1933. Astrometeor:
Ok, whew, done. With homework. Now I must get up in 6 hours to start all over again. Night everyone.
Give the brains a good rest and have a good night, Astro. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
Ok, whew, done. With homework. Now I must get up in 6 hours to start all over again. Night everyone.
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Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST NEAR 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MAKING CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD
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Get ready for your daily onslaught of lows from yours truly CMC.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
1929. 7544
hmmm the blob west of fl gets bigger and bigger where is it heading ?will the front take it ne
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Quoting 1924. lobdelse81:
I wonder if there is any correlation between the early intrusions of fall-like air across the CONUS in recent years and the tendency of hurricanes to re-curve out to sea. I thought back in May and June people on this blog kept preaching that the Bermuda high would be oriented differently and drive tropical systems towards the US.


There isn't, because it depends on where the trough placement is.

2004 and 2008 were both relatively cool summers for the US, and we know what happened in both those years.

Relax, don't worry. Still plenty of season left, lol.
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Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
1926. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anyhoo... I hate to love u and leave u, but I gotta be up and running at 5 a.m. which is less than 5 hours from now. So I'm off. Have fun, and check ya later...

GN, Baha. C U later.
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1925. sar2401
Quoting midgulfmom:
Ok...can't seem to figure where that persistent tencious ULL in the central GOM is going? A squeeze play looks like it's about to happen but is it pulling up to the NE or wrapping down toward the Yucatan? Anybody? TIA

I'm not sure it's going anywhere. It setting up a moisture fetch into the eastern Gulf very much like what we had in late June and July. 92L is still hanging on further south, and I don't know what it will do, but an upper level low setting up in the Gulf and sucking moisture is entirely normal. We just haven't seen it this persistent in a long time.
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I wonder if there is any correlation between the early intrusions of fall-like air across the CONUS in recent years and the tendency of hurricanes to re-curve out to sea. I thought back in May and June people on this blog kept preaching that the Bermuda high would be oriented differently and drive tropical systems towards the US.
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Quoting 1922. BahaHurican:
Anyhoo... I hate to love u and leave u, but I gotta be up and running at 5 a.m. which is less than 5 hours from now. So I'm off. Have fun, and check ya later...
Have a good sleep and good night Baha.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
Anyhoo... I hate to love u and leave u, but I gotta be up and running at 5 a.m. which is less than 5 hours from now. So I'm off. Have fun, and check ya later...
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From Lake Charles NWS Discussion:

WILL BE WATCHING HOW THINGS PROGRESS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WHILE NHC CALLS FOR SOME POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...FACTORS TO ME LOOK
UNFAVORABLE AND WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE AN ELONGATED TROF. THE IS
THE SCENARIO THAT WE WILL BE GOING WITH IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
IT DOES CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A SLOPPY WEAK
SYSTEM.

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Quoting 1863. SuperStorm093:
Say hello to the year of the Re-curves..


Yet another one.
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FSU has a nice graphic which Cantore used tonight on
TWC Trop Updates, showing % of Strikes on CONUS based on latitude of the TC. For Erin's Latitude it is 20%
(Not gonna Happen)
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Quoting 1911. Skyepony:
Got a few days of model runs for verification. Looking at the average model position error in nm at 0hr & 24hr overall they are struggling (high numbers are bad).

AEMN 55.3 67.2
AVNO 51.5 78.8
BAMD - 52.9
BAMM - 32.0
BAMS - 44.0
CMC 46.2 73.8
FIM9 33.8 -
GFDL 17.8 74.0
GFDT 34.4 58.2
HWRF 21.3 44.1
LBAR 0 60.3
LGEM 0 54.5
MRCL 0 63.4
NAM 59.5 44.9
NAMI 0 36.0
NVGM 54.6 99.2
TVCN 0 60.9
XTRP 0 73.6

BAMM & NAMI are in the lead..
FIM9 doesn't look too bad either. But as you say they're off by big margins.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
1917. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Those last couple of degrees are always the hardest to get to sar, good luck on tying or even breaking the record. Currently 67 here. :)

Yeah, I know. :-( The dewpoint is at 68 and we're already getting fog, so I think the record is safe. I couldn't believe it though. I stood outside for about five minutes just so I could listen to the air conditioner not running. Alabama Power won't be happy.
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Quoting 1893. opal92nwf:
It's merging with the ULL. Turn into a subtropical storm maybe?


Seems to be a distinct possibility. The front is starting to move offshore and destall now so that is going to add yet another factor to this.

May end up getting absorbed, or it may end up giving it a boost and becoming a frontal generated cyclone.

Been a little while since I saw a good sized one of those they like to form in september usually, but this slow moving front would present a great catylist even on its own without 92L.
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Quoting 1912. midgulfmom:
Ok...can't seem to figure where that persistent tencious ULL in the central GOM is going? A squeeze play looks like it's about to happen but is it pulling up to the NE or wrapping down toward the Yucatan? Anybody? TIA
Looks like it may fill in.
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Quoting 1891. BahaHurican:
I'm entirely happy with a storm originating near the CVIs recurving early, especially if it can do so in an excitingly explosive fashion.

I am a little less excited by sneaky CVI originating storms that masquerade as TS's ready to give up the ghost at any moment until they hit the sweet spot at 55W.... only to blow up in an excitingly explosive fashion.

I hope models are correct about Erin fading away, and if not, that we see an early exit stage right.
Yea, those are the ones to worry about, yet to come I'm afraid.
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Quoting 1859. GTstormChaserCaleb:
WOW! LOL


this is ludicrous this never happening!!!!!
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Ok...can't seem to figure where that persistent tencious ULL in the central GOM is going? A squeeze play looks like it's about to happen but is it pulling up to the NE or wrapping down toward the Yucatan? Anybody? TIA
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1911. Skyepony (Mod)
Got a few days of model runs for verification. Looking at the average model position error in nm at 0hr & 24hr overall they are struggling (high numbers are bad).

AEMN 55.3 67.2
AVNO 51.5 78.8
BAMD - 52.9
BAMM - 32.0
BAMS - 44.0
CMC 46.2 73.8
FIM9 33.8 -
GFDL 17.8 74.0
GFDT 34.4 58.2
HWRF 21.3 44.1
LBAR 0 60.3
LGEM 0 54.5
MRCL 0 63.4
NAM 59.5 44.9
NAMI 0 36.0
NVGM 54.6 99.2
TVCN 0 60.9
XTRP 0 73.6

BAMM & NAMI are in the lead..
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Quoting 1906. Thrawst:


Of course it isn't impossible. Nothing is.
I know I was just being smart with Cody. I think he knows that. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
1909. sar2401
Quoting canehater1:


Gotta love a gift like that..As a long time former
resident of the Redneck Riviera (NW Fl) and a frequent
visitor to your neck of the woods..I can relate...

Well, we prefer L.A. (Lower Alabama) because it sounds classier, but I always forget how hot the Panhandle is, especially at night, until I go back to Destin or PCB again. It's the only place I've ever been on a major ocean like thing (the locals hate it when we call the Gulf the "ocean") that has no sea breeze.
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 160147
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA FROM THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN.
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS AT 2.33 INCHES. TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WILL
KEEP S/SW FLOW IN PLACE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES IN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE REST OF THE
EVENING`S SCATTERED CHANCES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


Extremely moist atmosphere in place but not very high coverage of showers and thunderstorms today. Its even more weird when you consider there was higher coverage yesterday even though moisture is up from being 1.9 inches yesterday and the atmospheric profile is more favorable for convection.

Very odd for the atmosphere to be this "juiced" in August and see this little rainfall...
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Quoting 1782. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Major Hurricane Return Period for the CONUS:

The lowest number right in Grothar's backyard.
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1906. Thrawst
Quoting 1900. GTstormChaserCaleb:
hmm???

1928 Okeechobee hurricane



Hurricane Donna



Hurricane Hugo



Of course it isn't impossible. Nothing is.
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Quoting 1900. GTstormChaserCaleb:
hmm???

1928 Okeechobee hurricane



Hurricane Donna



Hurricane Hugo

Agreed. But there are about 25 - 30 storms originating in that area that DID recurve out to sea well before 60W...
We've had, what, 1/2 dozen in the last 10 years?

EDIT: BTW, notice how they all sneaked along as TS's until about 35 W... anything that got stronger generally headed up the weakness between the AB highs...
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1904. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thank You LAbonbon and thank you Sar for your responses to post 1851 really. I really appreciate it your help. :)

You're welcome, Caleb. I personally believe that Carol was really a cat 3, but the one official anemometer that was near landfall blew away after measuring 116 mph sustained, but not long enough to get a one minute sustained. I suspect that, if the NHC were to use damage criteria in addition to wind, as they do today, Carol certainly would have been a cat 3, and there's at least an even chance Hazel could have joined her. The amazing thing to me is the combination of Hazel and Carol was at least equal in impact to Sandy, yet the disruption to the area was much less. When lots of people move to the beach, and cities dig lots of holes for transit and utilities, things turn out a lot worse than they did 55 years ago.
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Quoting 1897. AussieStorm:
I'm back from another sleep. What did I miss? Erin a TD yet. 92L doing anything or still a mess?


92 has a ULL associated with it and providing the only decent spin seen on imagery loops to me, otherwise still a mess and running out of time to develop.

Monster wave nearing the edge of Africa too, Aussie.
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Quoting 1889. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thank You LAbonbon and thank you Sar for your responses to post 1851 really. I really appreciate it your help. :)


np, I love this stuff. BTW, for Maine - Great Colonial Hurricane (sustained winds 135 mph)

Link

And yes, the wiki link has an explanation as to how the came up w/ the windspeed :)

Didn't hit the coast, it crossed over SE New Egland, and ran parallel to the Maine Coast. So to answer the question posed earlier about return periods of 200+ years in Maine, therein may lie your answer.
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92L etc.
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Quoting 1876. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think people are forgetting that it's historically likely that a storm originating near the Cape Verde Islands recurves anyways.
hmm???

1928 Okeechobee hurricane



Hurricane Donna



Hurricane Hugo

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7459
Quoting 1893. opal92nwf:
It's merging with the ULL. Turn into a subtropical storm maybe?


92L itself is still its own system, the stuff being dragged into the ULL broke off earlier today.
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1898. docrod
Blog - git yer forks out on Erin


FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
COULD STILL BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.
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I'm back from another sleep. What did I miss? Erin a TD yet. 92L doing anything or still a mess?
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Quoting 1890. sar2401:
Holy cow! I just looked over at my weather station and it's 69 degrees here in SE AL. I haven't seen a temperature below 70, day or night, since July 3. This may not mean much to you northerners, but, if we can get down to 67 tonight, we'll tie the record. I need to go look for my parka. :-)


Gotta love a gift like that..As a long time former
resident of the Redneck Riviera (NW Fl) and a frequent
visitor to your neck of the woods..I can relate...
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Quoting 1890. sar2401:
Holy cow! I just looked over at my weather station and it's 69 degrees here in SE AL. I haven't seen a temperature below 70, day or night, since July 3. This may not mean much to you northerners, but, if we can get down to 67 tonight, we'll tie the record. I need to go look for my parka. :-)


Those last couple of degrees are always the hardest to get to sar, good luck on tying or even breaking the record. Currently 67 here. :)
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Holy cow! the temperature at my house in new haven,conn is 55F
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13244
It's merging with the ULL. Turn into a subtropical storm maybe?
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Quoting 1875. TexasHurricane05:


so, the blob by TX is this 92L or something else supposedly down the road?


Seems to be 92l.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.