Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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Florida bound?
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NHC in 2AM discussion, like the last three days plus have been calling for this disturbance to go to Louisiana. Interesting they are still sticking to that path, wonder why they are so confident in that. 92L looking meager now, should have 24-48hrs over Gulf before landfall. Will be interesting to see if anything happens.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Batch of showers and t'storms out in the Gulf should spread across central FL. later today. More rain for us :) I'll take it, wish there was a way I could send some over to my friends in Texas.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7367
1989. TXCWC
GEM/CMC, UKMET (a model much like Euro hardly developes anything suddenly last 2 runs is on for development), GFDL, NAM (would not use as storm track guidance except other major dynamic models support its' track)and other track models all take a weak to strong tropical storm to TX coast line in 3 to 4 days. HWRF and NAVGEM are very close to TX/MEX border...in short TX is currently very much in play for a potential storm





0Z GEM


NAM almost a mirror reflection of GEM and GFDL in terms of TX landfall
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Quoting 1977. LAbonbon:


Nah, it's okay. I'm just tired. It'll keep until tomorrow. No worries. Researching questions from Caleb's graphs were fun, until that last one. Now I'm worn out and a bit grumpy.

Headed to bed. Catch you tomorrow.


Okay. Good night, Bonnie.
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CP, 90, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1635W, 30, 1008, LO
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Quoting 1984. sar2401:

Maybe there's a solar eclipse we didn't hear about. :-)


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Quoting 1979. sar2401:

I'm glad I'm at least good for a laugh occasionally.:-) Really, though, they do have to make sure that 80% is really 100% before classifying it. They are probably the only US weather office with so much at stake for just declaring something a TD or TS.

As far as not so young, once you get to be my age, almost everyone is young. A 30 year old is really young to me.
Ok mister.
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1984. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Satellite Blackout


Maybe there's a solar eclipse we didn't hear about. :-)
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Quoting 1981. sar2401:

GN, Bonnie. As far 92L, the only question is how much longer will it be around. About 24 hours is my guess.



Sweeeet :D

Muchas gracias
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1981. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Nah, it's okay. I'm just tired. It'll keep until tomorrow. No worries. Researching questions from Caleb's graphs were fun, until that last one. Now I'm worn out and a bit grumpy.

Headed to bed. Catch you tomorrow.

GN, Bonnie. As far 92L, the only question is how much longer will it be around. About 24 hours is my guess.
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Quoting 1975. KoritheMan:


Yes. Quite horrible. I think I'm going to have nightmares tonight just thinking about it. :)

I really haven't looked at 92L much yet; I was at work all day. I'm furnishing my forecast now. I'll get back to you on that.


furnishing your forecast Kori? Really going all out for this one, look forward to it being good as usual.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1979. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Omg Sar you always make me laugh,What would I do without you :D XD. Yes I am going to send them my number so they can hear me how angry I am,Btw I am not that young.

I'm glad I'm at least good for a laugh occasionally.:-) Really, though, they do have to make sure that 80% is really 100% before classifying it. They are probably the only US weather office with so much at stake for just declaring something a TD or TS.

As far as not so young, once you get to be my age, almost everyone is young. A 30 year old is really young to me.
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1978. JLPR2
I see the long range GFS is hinting at an active end of the month, I don't see why not, but I think the GFS not showing the next wave developing is interesting. It certainly is strong and will be hitting water in even better conditions thanks to Erin cleaning out the area.

So yep...

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Quoting 1975. KoritheMan:


Yes. Quite horrible. I think I'm going to have nightmares tonight just thinking about it. :)

I really haven't looked at 92L much yet; I was at work all day. I'm furnishing my forecast now. I'll get back to you on that.


Nah, it's okay. I'm just tired. It'll keep until tomorrow. No worries. Researching questions from Caleb's graphs were fun, until that last one. Now I'm worn out and a bit grumpy.

Headed to bed. Catch you tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Satellite Blackout

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7367
Quoting 1970. LAbonbon:


Apparently we are a smallish group on the blog 'down low'. We secretly wish for systems to be shredded (I know, the horror!)

Now, since I've been busy looking at old, hard to understand documents, can you give me the abbreviated sitrep for 92L? Please :)


Yes. Quite horrible. I think I'm going to have nightmares tonight just thinking about it. :)

I really haven't looked at 92L much yet; I was at work all day. I'm furnishing my forecast now. I'll get back to you on that.
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Convection just north of Cuba associated with the ULL is in the process of spinning up, any thoughts? Sar, more and more looking like you well might be right about 92L. Think we just had a communication error last night Sar, if you though I said 92L would affect eastern Florida then that would be about as likely as getting hit by a meteor.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting sar2401:

My local mets are pretty fed up with both the GFS and CMC. They see them both as unreliable and outliers this year. I don't know if it's the models or just a weird year, but they just throw out GFS guidance for things like temperature and rainfall lately.


The ecmwf hasn't been much better. Fim has been pretty good but it's only experimental
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1972. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Rain rates

Not very impressive for a monster tropical storm brewing.
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@adolwyn Beth Allan
Some beautiful lightning from tonight over Mt. Lemmon in Tucson, AZ. #azwx
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Quoting 1967. KoritheMan:


Nope!


Apparently we are a smallish group on the blog 'down low'. We secretly wish for systems to be shredded (I know, the horror!)

Now, since I've been busy looking at old, hard to understand documents, can you give me the abbreviated sitrep for 92L? Please :)
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Quoting 1966. sar2401:

But Allan, you've had such a short life. :-) The Central Pacific forecaster are at a real disadvantage, since very few of their storms ever get a recon flight. They want to make absolutely sure about a storm before they classify it.

Their office also covers all the trans-Pacific shipping routes, and there are a lot ships in the water every day. A classified storm kicks in a bunch of insurance provisions that could send a container ship hundreds of miles out of its way, make them late at the dock, and have to burn lots of fuel trying to make up for lost time. If they classify a storm and then it keels over two days later, there are a lot of unhappy shipping line executives that will be on the phone. Yes, yes, I know, for the science wonks out there, that scientists only follow pure science and don't worry about economic consequences. Maybe you can let them have your phone number so they can forward all those irate calls to you. :-)
Omg Sar you always make me laugh,What would I do without you :D XD. Yes I am going to send them my number so they can hear me how angry I am,Btw I am not that young.
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1968. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


They could use the data for the next run of the GFS and give local mets info on what is happening.

My local mets are pretty fed up with both the GFS and CMC. They see them both as unreliable and outliers this year. I don't know if it's the models or just a weird year, but they just throw out GFS guidance for things like temperature and rainfall lately.
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Quoting 1965. LAbonbon:


Snoopy - did you not read the post about shred-wishers?


Nope!
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1966. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
They should declare it,it has the organization need.Never in my life I have seen a system with 80% that been in the outlook three times and not being upgrade.

But Allan, you've had such a short life. :-) The Central Pacific forecaster are at a real disadvantage, since very few of their storms ever get a recon flight. They want to make absolutely sure about a storm before they classify it.

Their office also covers all the trans-Pacific shipping routes, and there are a lot ships in the water every day. A classified storm kicks in a bunch of insurance provisions that could send a container ship hundreds of miles out of its way, make them late at the dock, and have to burn lots of fuel trying to make up for lost time. If they classify a storm and then it keels over two days later, there are a lot of unhappy shipping line executives that will be on the phone. Yes, yes, I know, for the science wonks out there, that scientists only follow pure science and don't worry about economic consequences. Maybe you can let them have your phone number so they can forward all those irate calls to you. :-)
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Quoting 1964. KoritheMan:


It definitely seems like the return period for our area of Louisiana is much sooner than that. Much to my celebration, and much to your chagrin, I'm afraid.

;)


Snoopy - did you not read the post about shred-wishers?
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Quoting 1963. LAbonbon:
Caleb-why oh why did you have to post that return period graphic? OMG I tried to figure out the return period question for Central Maine. I strongly urge you to go read the Technical Memorandum assocated w/ those numbers from NOAA. No really, you should do it.

It's a lovely document. Pre-computers, typed, scanned (crookedly), NOT searchable, and loaded w/ things like Monte Carlo simulations...

I have no answers, and I want the last hour of my life back :/

On a more upbeat note, I found other sources, more easily understandable, but w/ completely different return periods...


It definitely seems like the return period for our area of Louisiana is much sooner than that. Much to my celebration, and much to your chagrin, I'm afraid.

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Caleb-why oh why did you have to post that return period graphic? OMG I tried to figure out the return period question for Central Maine. I strongly urge you to go read the Technical Memorandum assocated w/ those numbers from NOAA. No really, you should do it.

It's a lovely document. Pre-computers, typed, scanned (crookedly), NOT searchable, and loaded w/ things like Monte Carlo simulations...

I have no answers, and I want the last hour of my life back :/

On a more upbeat note, I found other sources, more easily understandable, but w/ completely different return periods...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...
IF NECESSARY.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
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1960. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

They should declare it,it has the organization need.Never in my life I have seen a system with 80% that been in the outlook three times and not being upgrade.


That 80 percent invest will be crossing the international dateline sometime soon.. JMA will take care of it. XD
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Quoting sar2401:

At least the boys at the NHC literally only had to copy and paste the 8:00 for the 2:00 on 92L. Saves lots of work. :-) They did manage to keep Erin as a TS by a whole one mile per hour. I suspect 92L had better shape up quick. If they blow the gas on that thing flying it and can't find a closed low anywhere, it's history.


They could use the data for the next run of the GFS and give local mets info on what is happening.
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1958. Skyepony (Mod)
Rain rates
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1957. sar2401
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

ParmaHighSchool?

No, actually, I forgot, we lived two years in Bedford, so it was Bedford HS for me. Most of my brothers and sisters went to Parma High though - I was the oldest of seven.
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Quoting Astrometeor:
Ok, whew, done. With homework. Now I must get up in 6 hours to start all over again. Night everyone.


Night mate
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Quoting 1931. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST NEAR 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MAKING CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD
They should declare it,it has the organization need.Never in my life I have seen a system with 80% that been in the outlook three times and not being upgrade.
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1954. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:






Pretty much sums it up and the disturbance kmanislander is monitoring has more convergence than it.

At least the boys at the NHC literally only had to copy and paste the 8:00 for the 2:00 on 92L. Saves lots of work. :-) They did manage to keep Erin as a TS by a whole one mile per hour. I suspect 92L had better shape up quick. If they blow the gas on that thing flying it and can't find a closed low anywhere, it's history.
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Quoting 1949. sar2401:

Lived about half of my life in Lakewood and the other half in Parma. Left when I was 20 and, based on the present condition of that train wreck, it was the best move of my life.

ParmaHighSchool?
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Nothing on the Cancun radar



and Cuba radar is .....

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Quoting 1949. sar2401:

Lived about half of my life in Lakewood and the other half in Parma. Left when I was 20 and, based on the present condition of that train wreck, it was the best move of my life.


I grew up in Mentor before going to college and moving to florida in the 90s
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Quoting 1942. sar2401:

Really. I'm not sure if it's Levi's software or the real CMC, but some Canadian meteorologist has to at least look at the output over a cup of coffee and say "Hey, wait a minute....there are 35 lows on this chart....something's not right...", or so I would think. Way back in the days when I was in college and wanted to be a meteorologist, we had to work out surface maps based on station reports and drawing the isobars. My professor would have thrown me out a window if I handed in something like that. :-)
BWAHAHAHA you are so funny Sar. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7367
1949. sar2401
Quoting scottsvb:
Sar , what part of Cleveland did you grow up?

Lived about half of my life in Lakewood and the other half in Parma. Left when I was 20 and, based on the present condition of that train wreck, it was the best move of my life.
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No mention of the wave at 40W in the TWO.... maybe tomorrow...

BORING anyway!!

Good night XD
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1947. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
An area of low pressure about 1200 miles southwest of Kauai has shown signs of increased organization over the past six hours, and a tropical depression may be forming. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development as this feature moves west near 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential (91C)
====================================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: HIGH
Saturday: HIGH

An area of low pressure centered about 700 miles south southwest of Kauai is moving west near 15 MPH. Outflow from the system described above is making conditions less conducive for further development of this system, and system organization has diminished somewhat over the past six hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential (90C)
====================================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: HIGH

A surface trough about 500 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west at 15 to 20 MPH. Environmental conditions are not conducive for further development.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
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1946. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting 1941. MiamiHurricanes09:
Can't say I'm surprised.







Pretty much sums it up and the disturbance kmanislander is monitoring has more convergence than it.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7367
1944. Skyepony (Mod)
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Everything is what I thought a few days ago. Midlevel moisture streaming east of 86W .... upper low getting to near 90W.... weak LLC trough crossing the Yucitan.... yawn! I'm going to bed
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1942. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Get ready for your daily onslaught of lows from yours truly CMC.


Really. I'm not sure if it's Levi's software or the real CMC, but some Canadian meteorologist has to at least look at the output over a cup of coffee and say "Hey, wait a minute....there are 35 lows on this chart....something's not right...", or so I would think. Way back in the days when I was in college and wanted to be a meteorologist, we had to work out surface maps based on station reports and drawing the isobars. My professor would have thrown me out a window if I handed in something like that. :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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