Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

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The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

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2042. FOREX
Quoting 2036. TampaSpin:


NO....NOT THAT...the spin moving DUE NORTH along the Florida CoaST....LOOK CLOSE


Seems to be outflow for sure.
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2041. vis0
CREDIT: the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation + those at the end of the VID.




OBs: Front over East is heading/axis pivoting it more eastward, even though it was a strong front i.e. transfer cooler air towards the south east.
If this is the new trend, watch out SE/East coast. why? Not allowed to explain (considered mono-commenting)
if one wishes, read my blog as to the Natural trend when assisted by the "artificial trend" created by the ml-d (last 5 blogs, from Aug.
14thg 2013 - back)
org pg of complete world ani.
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2040. TXCWC
Quoting 2034. sar2401:

It's not that the graphic is out of date or you did anything wrong. The problem is those satellite estimates of winds indicating a closed low are notoriously inaccurate. OSCAT or ASCAT maps are much more accurate, when you can the storm of interest in the picture during a pass. No one knows where a low really is, or even if one exists. Some conservations suggest a low is forming, but there are at least three swirls that might be a low...or not. Once we get an airplane out there, we'll finally get some answers.


Ah, ok, I understand what you are saying...I know one of the things factored into that graphic is ASCAT though. Unless it misses for the cycle.
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It's part of the ULL, which gives an illusion that the 92L system has a LLC when it doesnt.
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2037. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
15:00 PM JST August 16 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Ishigaki Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 22.7N 123.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.4N 124.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) south of Ishigaki Island
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Quoting 2035. FOREX:


impressive, and moving West it seems?


NO....NOT THAT...the spin moving DUE NORTH along the Florida CoaST....LOOK CLOSE
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2034. sar2401
Quoting TXCWC:


This map (which is the latest update)is reported to be based on various real time satellite wind estimates at the time of issue. Are you saying they are not? Granted the "current" position shown will be off by 5 to 6 hrs by the time next update comes out but I think it is pretty accurate. :)

It's not that the graphic is out of date or you did anything wrong. The problem is those satellite estimates of winds indicating a closed low are notoriously inaccurate. OSCAT or ASCAT maps are much more accurate, when you can the storm of interest in the picture during a pass. No one knows where a low really is, or even if one exists. Some conservations suggest a low is forming, but there are at least three swirls that might be a low...or not. Once we get an airplane out there, we'll finally get some answers.
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2032. TXCWC
Quoting 2030. sar2401:

This is what the NHC said:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

I don't see anything there that says "later this morning, for sure". It's a direct cut and paste from the 8:00, so the NHC is certainly not looking at 92L as being any more likely to develop than it did earlier. "Potential" is much different than "for sure".


Go back and read what I was responding to. Had nothing to do with development of this system but rather it emerging into the Gulf from land.
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2031. TXCWC
Quoting 2030. sar2401:

This is what the NHC said:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

I don't see anything there that says "later this morning, for sure". It's a direct cut and paste from the 8:00, so the NHC is certainly not looking at 92L as being any more likely to develop than it did earlier. "Potential" is much different than "for sure".


From the Tropical Weather Discussion at 2am - note the bolded part below...I was never refering to/responding to development of the system.

"...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN AND INLAND LATE TUE OVER SW LOUISIANA..."
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2030. sar2401
Quoting TXCWC:


Not yet but getting close - later this morning for sure as NHC stated in their 2am


This is what the NHC said:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

I don't see anything there that says "later this morning, for sure". It's a direct cut and paste from the 8:00, so the NHC is certainly not looking at 92L as being any more likely to develop than it did earlier. "Potential" is much different than "for sure".
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Quoting 2025. HurricaneAndre:


Looks like 3 waves there on this picture.
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Quoting 2023. AtHomeInTX:


I'm sure you'll get all the rain anyway. :P


MUAHAHAHA
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Quoting 2022. allancalderini:

Here comes Fernand of GabrielleYou will I thought you guys receive a lot of rain in spring,I guess I was wrong.


Yes, we here in SE TX did get a pretty good bit until June. Since then we are behind about 8 inches. The rest of TX even dryer.
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Quoting 2021. AussieStorm:

ULL off the NW coast of the Yucatan


I've never seen an upper low vigorous enough to be detected on shortwave infrared imagery, which is practically meant for detecting surface reflections.
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2024. TXCWC
Quoting 2010. MississippiWx:


No offense, but those maps are about as accurate as the models have been with this system. Lol.


This map (which is the latest update)is reported to be based on various real time satellite wind estimates at the time of issue. Are you saying they are not? Granted the "current" position shown will be off by 5 to 6 hrs by the time next update comes out but I think it is pretty accurate. :)
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Quoting 2017. KoritheMan:


Storm stealer!

Well, fine! I hope it stays east-weighted!

:P


I'm sure you'll get all the rain anyway. :P
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Quoting 2018. HurricaneAndre:
The wave is almost there.

Here comes Fernand of Gabrielle
Quoting 2019. AtHomeInTX:


Thank you Allan. :) Fingers crossed.
You will I thought you guys receive a lot of rain in spring,I guess I was wrong.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I really hate situations like this...

As me and Drew discussed, there does appear to be a viable low-level swirl just off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, but at the same time, I don't see much evidence of westerly winds on shortwave infrared imagery (often considered the "nighttime visible") blowing toward Campeche, where the surface observations showed southwest winds. But at the same time, I can't just ignore those observations. It could be that the circulation is better defined than satellite images are leading us to believe, but of course, it is difficult to follow the low clouds when there is northwesterly shear blowing over the system at the same time.

ULL off the NW coast of the Yucatan
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Quoting 1. allancalderini:
Thanks Dr.Masters.
I was the first can`t believe :D.
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Quoting 2015. allancalderini:
Good luck in getting the rain you need Athome :D


Thank you Allan. :) Fingers crossed.
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The wave is almost there.
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Quoting 2014. AtHomeInTX:


Storm stealer!

Well fine! I hope it stays east-weighted!

:P
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Quoting 2014. AtHomeInTX:
Good luck in getting the rain you need Athome :D Btw good morning hope to see you later.
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2013. FOREX
Quoting 2005. TXCWC:


Not yet but getting close - later this morning for sure as NHC stated in their 2am



looks as though it is moving SW??
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AL, 05, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 160N, 299W, 35, 1007, TS
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I really hate situations like this...

As me and Drew discussed, there does appear to be a viable low-level swirl just off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, but at the same time, I don't see much evidence of westerly winds on shortwave infrared imagery (often considered the "nighttime visible") blowing toward Campeche, where the surface observations showed southwest winds. But at the same time, I can't just ignore those observations. It could be that the circulation is better defined than satellite images are leading us to believe, but of course, it is difficult to follow the low clouds when there is northwesterly shear blowing over the system at the same time.
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Quoting 2005. TXCWC:


Not yet but getting close - later this morning for sure as NHC stated in their 2am



No offense, but those maps are about as accurate as the models have been with this system. Lol.
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Barbara TCR is out.
Her landfall location is the easternmost record landfall in the Epac.
Her landfall on May 29 marks the second ealiest hurricane landfall in the Epac.
Her peak was 70 knots.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022013_Barbara .pdf
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Quoting 2005. TXCWC:


Not yet but getting close - later this morning for sure as NHC stated in their 2am



Its off...your graphic is behind.
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850mb vort looks a lot better...a lot more concentrated. Believe it will start firing off convection over the water as we get closer to d-min.



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2005. TXCWC
Quoting 1999. KoritheMan:


The circulation appears to have emerged into the Gulf proper?


Not yet but getting close - later this morning for sure as NHC stated in their 2am

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Quoting 2003. KoritheMan:


Think it has a chance, or no?


I think it does, but it has to start developing today. Obviously needs to build a little convection. Lol.
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Quoting 2000. MississippiWx:


That's what it looks like to me.


Think it has a chance, or no?
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Quoting 1994. MississippiWx:


Go here, click on the IR6 enhancement and then loop it. I'd set the frames to at least 15. Looks off the NW tip of the Yucatan and tell me what you see.

Link



Might come up a bit better on IR3. Been watching this, definitely looks like 92's swirl.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
Quoting 1999. KoritheMan:


The circulation appears to have emerged into the Gulf proper?


That's what it looks like to me.
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Quoting 1994. MississippiWx:


Go here, click on the IR6 enhancement and then loop it. I'd set the frames to at least 15. Looks off the NW tip of the Yucatan and tell me what you see.

Link



The circulation appears to have emerged into the Gulf proper?
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Quoting 1978. JLPR2:
I see the long range GFS is hinting at an active end of the month, I don't see why not, but I think the GFS not showing the next wave developing is interesting. It certainly is strong and will be hitting water in even better conditions thanks to Erin cleaning out the area.

So yep...



I honestly don't think the GFS is going to show as much development as it used to because of the upgrade, but that doesn't mean it can't happen without explicit model support. Erin did, and 92L tried to.
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1997. TXCWC
Quoting 1991. Tribucanes:
NHC in 2AM discussion, like the last three days plus have been calling for this disturbance to go to Louisiana. Interesting they are still sticking to that path, wonder why they are so confident in that. 92L looking meager now, should have 24-48hrs over Gulf before landfall. Will be interesting to see if anything happens.


hummm...actually they have followed models west. sw Louisiana is much different than se as shown a day or 2 ago...expect them to continue shifting west if models continue to do so. No need for drastic track shift thinking when a storm hasn't even formed yet. They also expect this to be in the gulf for 3 to 4 days as well it seems...alot of time to see if anything developes. Only real hinderance should be shear in northern gulf.

"...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN AND INLAND LATE TUE OVER SW LOUISIANA..."
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91C up to 30 knots.

CP, 91, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1724W, 30, 1007, LO
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One millibar up in the 06z update.

AL, 92, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 208N, 900W, 25, 1010, LO
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Quoting 1993. KoritheMan:
Interesting.

Merida, located on the northern shores of the Yucatan Peninsula, is reporting southeast winds.

Campeche, located on the western shores of the peninsula, is reporting southwest winds.

By no means is that a well-defined circulation, but that shows that there is still some spin associated with 92L, and I'm honestly a bit surprised given the circumstances.

Don't write it off yet, at least not until it hits that shear wall north of 25 or 26N and still hasn't done anything.


Go here, click on the IR6 enhancement and then loop it. I'd set the frames to at least 15. Looks off the NW tip of the Yucatan and tell me what you see.

Link

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Interesting.

Merida, located on the northern shores of the Yucatan Peninsula, is reporting southeast winds.

Campeche, located on the western shores of the peninsula, is reporting southwest winds.

By no means is that a well-defined circulation, but that shows that there is still some spin associated with 92L, and I'm honestly a bit surprised given the circumstances.

Don't write it off yet, at least not until it hits that shear wall north of 25 or 26N and still hasn't done anything.
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Florida bound?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.