Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

Share this Blog
73
+

The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula (92L) is growing more organized this morning, after an evening when it lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Satellite loops show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in intensity and areal coverage, but there are a no signs of a surface circulation. Winds at surface stations in the Western Caribbean also do not show a surface circulation. The highest surface wind reports this Thursday morning were at Western Caribbean buoy 42056 about 140 miles east southeast of Cozumel, which had east winds of 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 10 am EDT. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today until its west-northwest movement at 10 - 15 mph carries it over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Four hurricane hunter flights were scheduled to fly into 92L today--an Air Force mission tasked to provide a center fix early this afternoon, two NOAA P-3 missions aimed at collecting real-time radar data to feed into the HWRF model, and a flight by the NOAA jet to collect dropsonde data around the periphery of 92L. However, all of these flights were cancelled, given that 92L did not organize as much as much as it could have.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L taken at 12:30 pm EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday, and a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Thursday August 15, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Typhoon Utor dissipates
Typhoon Utor has dissipated after hitting Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon is being blamed for 1 death in China, and sank a 21-person cargo ship off the coast. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 8 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and damage is estimated at $20 million.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2092 - 2042

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

2092. MahFL
New flare up on the Yucatan.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone. A lovely 70 degrees with a heat index of 69! I'm really hoping it will be the same tomorrow morning so I can get a good bit of yard work done.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CW's food and Largo's coffee: egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, Scrambled Egg Pockets, cranberry coffee cake, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, cheesy grits with shrimp, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
08/15/2013 Daily Update - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

This is a long loop animation from the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector imagery. Featured is the designation of TS Erin earlier today and the track conditions ahead of TS Erin, including tracking forecasts by the NHC for 08/15/2013.

There is also an area of interest near the Yucatan Peninsula on 08/15/2013. Watch out for this one!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2089. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning early birds and night shift

I see very clearly 92L LLCOC at 21.5N 91.0W, it's just very slightly elongated, movement is off to the WNW. Currently no convection near the center, however there is some NE, E, and SE of it, within the low level bands along 86W to 89W. Currently it is in an area of increasing shear and I don't expect that to change. All in all I think if 92L don't beat the odds and build convection over the LLC dispite increasing shear, then 92L had its chance to become a tropical cyclone before in the NW Caribbean and failed, and overall failed to become one.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2087. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2086. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2085. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2084. LargoFl
Quoting 2083. PensacolaDoug:
G'morning Largo and all. Disorganized mess in GOM. Models pointing it towards upper TX coast. Precip maps still pound the Panhandle. Weird.
good morning..yes moisture plume is being sucked into the panhandle by that front all the way down from the yucatan..regardless of where the low goes down there..florida,georgia etc get its rains..whew..add all that to the cold fronts rains..flooding will be a problem huh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'morning Largo and all. Disorganized mess in GOM. Models pointing it towards upper TX coast. Precip maps still pound the Panhandle. Weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2082. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR PENINSULA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2081. Gearsts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2080. LargoFl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
534 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...Flash Flood Watch now in effect through Sunday evening for
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and thru Saturday
evening for Southwest and South Central Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend...

...Heavy rain is expected through the weekend with the Flood
threat increasing...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2079. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is Perked...........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1970. LAbonbon:


Apparently we are a smallish group on the blog 'down low'. We secretly wish for systems to be shredded (I know, the horror!)

Now, since I've been busy looking at old, hard to understand documents, can you give me the abbreviated sitrep for 92L? Please :)
SHREDcasters! A new one!!!

LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a funny feeling erin won't live and will suffer the same fate as chantal and dorian after reading the recent NHC advisory and from what I have been reading in the last day or two.I hope it survives because I don;t want it to suffer the same fate as those two tropical storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm still hoping for a little piece of 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wouldn't have any idea what to forecast with this mess.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2071. HurricaneHunterJoe:
I guess everybody burned out on 92L


Still here, still watching, still waiting for the blog to fire back up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning..What a mess we have in the gulf..The ULL is being a pest..Could a Hybrid low come out of this..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess everybody burned out on 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So whats going on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Class
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2068. vis0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE NEAT 0400 UTC WAS 31 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD
AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM
MODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN
50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE ERIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C...AND METEOSAT AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HOURS
AGO...AND THUS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER 72 HOURS...ERIN IS
FORECAST TO REACH INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MORE DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SHOWING WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME. AN ALTERNATIVE
FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE
BEFORE 120 HOURS...AS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 24.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2058. AussieStorm:
Information Concerning the
Remnants of Tropical Storm Erin(2007)




Often referred to as the "Landcane" in OK.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
2062. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST August 16 2013
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Utor (996 hPa) located at 24.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

System #2
---------

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Japan

Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 23.2N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2061. vis0

Quoting 1952. AussieStorm:
Nothing on the Cancun radar



and Cuba radar is .....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2059. AussieStorm:


Could it be working it's way down to the surface?


No:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've never seen an upper low vigorous enough to be detected on shortwave infrared imagery, which is practically meant for detecting surface reflections.


Could it be working it's way down to the surface?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
man erin not looking good at all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it possibly for formation without vorticity stacking?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was asking earlier about what Tampaspin shows in 2052. Clearly good spin going on there. Just no vort stacking, and 850mb vorticity is nil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MJO tryna hang in there around Africa. conditions around caribbean and Gom getting ready to come alive in a week too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ASCAT caught what I am talking about....NITE


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2047. sar2401:

Rewind time back to 8:00 last night. It's still exactly the same now. Nothing is happening, except for a few tiny swirls off the Yucatan that might grow up to be lows someday. :-)

still nothing well tomorrow seems to be da day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And on that note...good night everyone. :)


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 25N90W TO INLAND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRES ON THE WAVE NEAR
21N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 91W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN TO NEAR 22N92W
BY LATE TONIGHT...TO NEAR 23N93W BY EARLY SAT...TO NEAR 24N93W
BY LATE SAT...AND NW ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH MON. THE LOW MAY
MOVE INLAND FAR NE TEXAS OR SW LOUISIANA LATE MON INTO
TUE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH LOW CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...AND ULTIMATE IMPACTS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL WINDS HAVE CAPPED
AT 25-30 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 11 FT-12 FT. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW/TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO CURRENT GRID FORECAST OF WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR NW GULF
FOR SAT THROUGH TUE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sounds crazy I guess but it looks like the ULL is stacking on top of the LLevels and storms are starting to pop near the center....i'm off for bed...NITE ALL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2045. sar2401:

Oh, that...it's the ULL, making a moisture fetch back down to the Yucatan. It's like the one we had for weeks in July. If there's a surface low, it's back around 22N, 89W. Except for some rain, Florida's not involved in this dog fight.



I'm talking about the one at 26N 86W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2047. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
good morning just got off wats going on nightshift!

Rewind time back to 8:00 last night. It's still exactly the same now. Nothing is happening, except for a few tiny swirls off the Yucatan that might grow up to be lows someday. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2045. sar2401
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO....NOT THAT...the spin moving DUE NORTH along the Florida CoaST....LOOK CLOSE

Oh, that...it's the ULL, making a moisture fetch back down to the Yucatan. It's like the one we had for weeks in July. If there's a surface low, it's back around 22N, 89W. Except for some rain, Florida's not involved in this dog fight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning just got off wats going on nightshift!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2043. TXCWC
Can no longer hang in for the night. Have to get some sleep before work. Interested to see how our Gulf system does once actually fully in the Gulf later today. Take care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2042. FOREX
Quoting 2036. TampaSpin:


NO....NOT THAT...the spin moving DUE NORTH along the Florida CoaST....LOOK CLOSE


Seems to be outflow for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2092 - 2042

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.