Caribbean Disturbance 92L Organizing; Typhoon Utor Hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2013

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Pressures are falling in the Western Caribbean where a tropical wave (92L) is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Cayman Islands radar shows that the thunderstorm activity is disorganized, and satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, and no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Friday, but then shear will rise on Saturday. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the 06Z run of the GFS model. It shows a landfall on Saturday of a weak tropical storm between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model shows a more westerly path for 92L, with the storm eventually coming ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. The European model keeps 92L weak and does not develop it. The more northwards path advertised by the GFS model would bring a large amount of moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 50% of developing by Friday, and a 60% chance of developing by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L over the Western Caribbean, taken at 10:31 am EDT August 14, 2013. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

New African Tropical Wave 93L Organizing
A tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa on Tuesday (93L) is showing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin on satellite loops as it heads west-northwest at 10 mph. The wave is over warm waters of 28°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Thursday. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath 93L will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as 93L encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 60% of developing by Monday, and a 60% chance of developing by Friday. The expected west-northwest track of 93L over the next five days will carry it into a region of ocean where it is uncommon for tropical cyclones located there to eventually impact any land areas except Bermuda.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Utor as it was closing in on the coast of Southeast China at 10:42 am local time on August 14, 2013. At the time, Utor had top winds of 100 mph. Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 05:45 UTC on Wednesday, August 14. At the time, Utor was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, and was making landfall in China, 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Utor hits China
Typhoon Utor hit Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong near 3 pm local time this Wednesday, as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained wind of 34 mph, gusting to 44 mph to Macao, and wind gusts as high as 54 mph to Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Utor will continue to dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large but weakening typhoon, with the eye no longer visible. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 4 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 11 people are missing.

Jeff Masters

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3811. TxLisa
11:51 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 2702. redwagon:


Happy, happy, happy. I got the season opener of Duck Dynasty, Sonic shake, onion rings, and a low that may bring Texans some rain.

HappyX3.
ahhh...the simple things in life are the best! And yes rain for Texas = happy, happy, happy!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
3810. cyclonekid
3:42 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Looks like we may have Tropical Depression One-C very soon. It's been a while since the Central Pacific has spit one out on their own, without the aid of an already existing Eastern Pacific storm. :)

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715
3809. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:34 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Good morning I see 92L was able to generate some thunderstorms near the center, but it is nearing the coast the feature to the north of it is interesting. Also I see we have a new tropical storm Erin which puts us at 5/0/0.





Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
3808. tj175
2:53 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3705. Autistic2:
Off topic, sorry but just way big happy

After 16 days in hospital with a liver infection, Docs at wolfson children hospital say my little (13) girl is going to be fine and come home in a week or so! Me so happy!



Many blessings and thank God for her speedy recovery!!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
3807. moonlightcowboy
2:48 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
3806. TampaSpin
2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3797. hurricanes2018:
10 north and 40 west I see it!


Its embedded within the ITCZ.....there is always spin there.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3805. hurricanes2018
2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
new update on tropical storm erin soon
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11044
3804. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3803. RGVtropicalWx13
2:39 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Again I would not move off to the next wave.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
3802. HurricaneAndre
2:38 PM GMT on August 15, 2013

See favorable.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
3801. Doppler22
2:38 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
I got down to 52 degrees at my house last night. Phew, that's fairly chilly for August. I wonder how fall will be...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
3800. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3786. RGVtropicalWx13:
Oh it'll be intact after the Yucatan. It's flat their whether developed or not we seen it many times before.


activity to its north and nw may rip it in two hopefully

we will see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
3799. GrandCaymanMed
2:38 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
For folks on the Gulf Coast, it is very good news that the ULL over the Gulf ripped 92L into 2 pieces, one headed north into FL and another west. This was depicted by the GFS a few runs back. In any case, I am HAPPY my forecast yesterday for 92L to strengthen, move north in response to a trough and get into the GOM to attain hurricane strength will not materialize.

If it were not for the ULL over the GOM, 92L could easily have been a significant and dangerous hurricane headed for the Gulf Coast, something that would be very bad news.

Hopefully the remnant moisture from 92L can give parts of Texas some much needed rain in 3-5 days.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 230
3798. TampaSpin
2:37 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
LOOK at the Shear on 92L....Just shows how hard SHEAR is to forecast at 12hrs ,,,,48hrs is like throwing darts....LOOK at these shear maps....Not even clost to being accurate.





Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3797. hurricanes2018
2:37 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
10 north and 40 west I see it!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11044
3796. Josihua2
2:36 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3729. TampaSpin:
Erin will clean the house of Dust and leave low pressure in its wake for others too follow....Could get very busy in the Atlantic.
if the atlantic could have a discussion it would go something like this.
SAL: in full control eating up all storms that pass near me. ahh enjoying this 2 and a half month dominance!


African continent: Ok guys, its the middle of August now.. got some work to do now... i`ll send out erin to do my dirty work and attack that pesky SAL and show him who`s boss... once the job is completed i`ll send Fernand, Gabrielle, and Humberto to do the real task!

lol gotta active imagination :P
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
3795. HurricaneAndre
2:36 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Where do think the next invest(94L) will form.
A BLOBZILLA on Africa
B little twist in the central Atlantic

A think it's B.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
3794. Sfloridacat5
2:36 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4769
3793. redwagon
2:34 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3774. ricderr:
Alrighty then........just a little recap....


yesterday most were onboard with a solution that 92L would be named before 93L...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


two days ago many were offering up solutions that models of 92L would move east impacting florida ...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


of course no one remembers your names....cough cough....no one would be judgemental except for one thing...

there were a few...who when offered up words of wisdom such as....whoa...wait til we see formation...or....whoa....let's get a circulation before worrying about extreme storms....or steering currents do not support anything further than a panhandle landfall....and even....texas may be impacted...and those bloggers...were shamed and ridiculed....yet they've proved correct.....makes you say HMMMMMMMMMMM



Well, what's left of 92L after it crosses the Yuc seems to dissipate into Tampico, so now my attention is on the 10N40W blob. That little guy could go *anywhere*. And be *any* size.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2798
3792. 69Viking
2:34 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3787. Grothar:
Interesting little twist



Maybe the weekend in the FL Panhandle will be salvaged after all.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3791. canehater1
2:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Well the ULL din't move off in time as originally
thought, and it is rather elongated and narrow.
Definitely not much help to a potentially developing
TC. Not closing both eyes on 92-L until the big boys do.
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 984
3790. seminolesfan
2:32 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
I think many are missing out on the fact that yesterday at this time the wave was in an area where the trade winds were blocked by the lower level ridge (155 iso in this:


pic, GEFS analysis for 6z yesterday); Notice the trade wind flow sharply lower in velocity on the wind barbs.

This was causing additional low level convergence along the wave axis and supported decent convection.

On the 6z GEFS analysis today, a much different look to the lower level flow is seen.



Notice the same 155 iso now pulled off to the N and the trade flow no longer being piled up in the W. Caribbean.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
3789. 69Viking
2:32 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3783. Grothar:


Out of where. :)


I think Meatloaf answered that in song that better than anybody!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3788. Doppler22
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3766. Grothar:


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.







Major Maybe?
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
3787. Grothar
2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Interesting little twist

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3786. RGVtropicalWx13
2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Oh it'll be intact after the Yucatan. It's flat their whether developed or not we seen it many times before.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
3785. Nimitz
2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3728. LargoFl:


Joy...getting tired of having the crap scared out of me on the way home every day, driving in pouring rain, flooded streets and dodging tornados...
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
3784. LargoFl
2:29 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33355
3783. Grothar
2:29 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3779. TampaSpin:


LOOKS LIKE AT BAT....LOL


Out of where. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3782. ricderr
2:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.



this sounds good...and possibly could be correct...but not based on the claim made......we've seen many good early strong storms die due to poor atmospheric conditions ahead of its path....if it is to become a "biggin" it will not be due to it's appearance now, but to the conditions ahead of it that will be favorable for strnghtening
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20131
3781. hurricanes2018
2:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
I do see a spin at 40 west!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11044
3780. Grothar
2:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3775. icmoore:


Just say what Jackie Gleason use to say :)) "Pins and needles, needles and pins, it's a happy man that grins," LOL. Good morning, Gro :) and everybody.


Morning ic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3779. TampaSpin
2:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3766. Grothar:


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.








LOOKS LIKE AT BAT....LOL HOPE NO PSYCH...MAJOR ON ...i'm in trouble...LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3778. LargoFl
2:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
TENNIS BALL SIZED HAILSTONES??.......................... GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING AIDE BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 2 AM. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON
TODAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33355
3777. Grothar
2:26 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Just in


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3776. cg2916
2:26 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3772. Rmadillo:
92L looks ragged, for sure.

An armadillo has a better chance of successfully crossing a road than 92L has of crossing the Yucutan with any semblance threat Downstream.


Not saying this is set in stone at all, but we've seen storms explode in the BOC before, so this thing is still a threat. But it does have to cross the Yucatan intact.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
3775. icmoore
2:25 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3760. Grothar:


That is why there are anti-testosterone pills. Sometimes it takes more courage to walk away than confront someone. (I found out it is also easier on your face)


Just say what Jackie Gleason use to say :)) "Pins and needles, needles and pins, it's a happy man that grins," LOL. Good morning, Gro :) and everybody.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
3774. ricderr
2:24 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Alrighty then........just a little recap....


yesterday most were onboard with a solution that 92L would be named before 93L...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


two days ago many were offering up solutions that models of 92L would move east impacting florida ...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


of course no one remembers your names....cough cough....no one would be judgemental except for one thing...

there were a few...who when offered up words of wisdom such as....whoa...wait til we see formation...or....whoa....let's get a circulation before worrying about extreme storms....or steering currents do not support anything further than a panhandle landfall....and even....texas may be impacted...and those bloggers...were shamed and ridiculed....yet they've proved correct.....makes you say HMMMMMMMMMMM

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20131
3773. SRQfl
2:24 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3756. 69Viking:


I guess now we know why 92L didn't develop.

Yeah, I guess with the CIMSS site down most of yesterday many(including myself) couldn't see what was going on up there. Brings me back to the early 90s where we just had sat loops on TWC and dial-a-buoy... Maybe go to the library and use internet access to reach primitive NOAA site and check weather balloon/dropsondes data.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
3772. Rmadillo
2:24 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
92L looks ragged, for sure.

An armadillo has a better chance of successfully crossing a road than 92L has of crossing the Yucutan with any semblance of being a threat Downstream.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
3771. hurricanes2018
2:24 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3761. Rmadillo:
Never turn your back on a 40W Seed. Not even for one second.

what is going on with 40 west
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11044
3769. Sfloridacat5
2:24 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
It's really hard to find the center of 92l because of the exploding convection.
Later today, I expect to see a naked center as it crosses the Yucutan.
Sometime tonight or tomorrow we will see the center make it into the GOM.

I really think 92L will make a come back once the center gets into the GOM.
Not sure how strong it will get (T.D. or T.S.), but it will make a come back.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4769
3768. Autistic2
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
My shift, Off to Hospital. Be back 2 or 3 days. You all play nice.

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3767. RGVtropicalWx13
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
This is only temporary, it'll develop once in gulf. It also get everyone's attention again too!
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
3766. Grothar
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3750. TampaSpin:


Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.






Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3765. TampaSpin
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
92L just showed us one thing SO FAR....that if you don't have Model support from both the ECM and the GFS...WE PROBABLY DON'T HAVE MUCH!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3764. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33355
3763. cg2916
2:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Quoting 3762. Doppler22:
I know most people don't care but it looks like there will be a new depression south of Hawaii


And thankfully, not a threat to land.

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
3762. Doppler22
2:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
I know most people don't care but it looks like there will be a new depression south of Hawaii
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
3761. Rmadillo
2:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
Never turn your back on a 40W Seed. Not even for one second.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.