Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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883. Skyepony (Mod)
12:34 AM GMT on August 17, 2013
How about we compare some model track error for 92L.. error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr..

NAM 54.9 104.4 77.9
NVGM 48.2 118.5 205.3

go ships!
SHIP 0 50.4 69.6

someone find this model!
GHMI 0 48.7 18.9

HWRF 15.4 72.2 108.4
LBAR 0 55.4 144.8

GFDI 0 48.7 18.9
GFDL 18.2 77.2 90.5

DSHP 0 50.4 69.6
FIM9 32.4 154.1 -

crow for the CMC haters..
CMC 47.7 78.3 37.5

AVNO 39.6 99.5 108.8
BAMD - 82.9 76.2
BAMM - 63.2 56.6
BAMS - 61.5 43.8

& the gfs ensemble mean..
AEMN 46.3 99.9 39.8
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
882. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:15 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 855. louisianaboy444:
I just like how when he sees something he sticks to it no matter what..it is all in good fun


I think he usually has a good reason for thinking the way he does pertaining to storm formation and track......... he is not in the " W " camp....JMO
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
881. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:09 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
What exactly are a model having " convective feedback issues " ? in laymans terms please and TIA
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
880. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:07 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 822. wunderkidcayman:
obs on E side of Grand Cayman is reading 44mph pressures still droping


How much has it dropped WKC and over what timeframe?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
879. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
A lot of tit for tat going on with regards to models forecasts.... I guess it's always the same thing. Do I dare bring out the dreaded " W " word? JMO

Onward we go......................
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
878. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


Don't tease us master!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
877. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:52 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 772. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well looks like the TAFB is leaning more towards the Northeast Gulf.



Quoting 790. Grothar:
I disagree. When it reaches the Gulf, it will have to move North.




Thank you most honorable master!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
876. SunriseSteeda
10:13 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 868. southernstorm:
We are soaked here in Southern Mississippi also but not complaining. No drought, cloud cover, lower power bills, healthy grass. We will take a tropical storm and let someone else have the next hurricane.


Speaking of Southern Mississippi, we play football against you this year (FAU vs Southern Miss) now we're in the C-USA. Southern Miss has a course I'd love to take for fun GY104 - Weather & Climate, GY104L - Weather & Climate Laboratory (wheee!). My school doesn't have coursework like this. Ocean Engineering, yes. Fun weather stuff, no.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
875. islander101010
10:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
not much up top mauna loa which i climbed more likely the measurements were taken on mauna kea
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4594
874. SunriseSteeda
10:08 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 869. RTSplayer:


No.

Differential Equations are where I get off the boat. That's what killed me at LSU. Although to be honest I probably would be better served if there were a standardized test for Differential Equations.

...

Did I mention LSU seems to do math curricula backwards? Statistics wasn't even on the curricula until you passed DE, but if there was any logic to it, Statistics would be taken before the Calculus block.



LSU tests are designed individually by the professors, and they're all jackasses or foreigner, who design a test so that if you miss one question you get a C and if you miss two you fail. We didn't get to use any formula sheets in that class either. At least in Calculus 2 we got to use formula sheets.

Anyway, I have about half of a math major now, and I'll probably never complete it in my lifetime. At least I'd need a teacher a hell of a lot better than what I had when I was back at LSU.

I'm at SLU now, but I'm not even sure I'm going to get in for the fall. I sort of last minute enrolled, so I'm just trying to test out of everything I can think of while I wait to see what the Dean(s) are going to let me do.


I started out at RPI, where as a freshman you'd have Calc II, Physics w/Calc, Chemistry w/Calc, some physical education course, and 2 related to your major (for me Assembly Language & Computing Fundamentals/Pascal).

At FAU (and other state schools) it's split up for at least some of the engineering/compsci disciplines. You take STA 2023 (statistics) and MAD 2104 (discrete math, for the probability) *before* Calc II, usually, but only learn the basics. Usually there is a secondary course at 4000-level (senior) that is like a Statistics II, but tailored to application in your major. It usually incorporates some Calc as well (con jugation of functions).

The latter course is also sort of like Statistical Modeling I, where you start to learn tools. Depending on your major, graduate work would include what you could maybe call Statistics III/Statistical Modeling II that starts knitting the stuff altogether. If your major is Meteorology, perhaps you start modeling tropical systems :). In computer science, you model software systems.

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
873. CaribBoy
10:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



NICE!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6170
872. SunriseSteeda
10:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 845. LAbonbon:


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P



Man, I wish I had taken DiffEq earlier in my collegiate career. It was the only C I ever earned.

( Calc I (AP credit), Calc I (for fun, A), Calc II (B, ouch), Discrete Math (B, robbed), Diffeq (C, hit by the train), Statistics (A, cakewalk), Stochastic Models for Computer Science (B , half-hearted), Computer Performance modeling (OMG the pain the pain, heaviest stats class I ever had.. AND married to programming, A-).

:-/ A pattern developed... all of my non-As are math-related courses (above). ALL of the most painful courses were math-related. And to think as a high schooler I adored the subject.


With that last course, I have reached the critical mass in both the coding and math skills to play with creating my own tropical models using neural network/perceptron-based networks, though. Now, if just to find some time...

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
871. OracleDeAtlantis
9:55 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 818. RTSplayer:
Well, I tested out of Statistics on the credit exam. I never took a college statistics class, but I crammed for two days from Cliffs Notes. Half of this stuff I already knew just from other math classes anyway, but about the second half of it is pretty hard to remember every formula and the table you're supposed to use.

It was the hardest math test I've actually passed, just because of the tedious nature of statistics, and trying to remember every formula ever invented. Of course, it is a credit exam with no actual instruction, and only 2 days actually teaching myself what I didn't already know. They didn't give a formula sheet at the test; just scratch paper and a basic calculator.

I actually found mistakes on the test itself. When the computer gave me the option to give feedback, I discussed that issue and the insane time restrictions of just 76 seconds per question.
Great, I need a statistics CLEP to tell me the odds of arguably forecasting that the "S" storm would be THE "S"uperstorm of our lifetime.

The NSA has been giving me hell about that forecast. ;)

Post 399. OracleDeAtlantis 5:06 AM GMT on April 20, 2012:

As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.



Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
870. seer2012
9:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 867. prcane4you:
At last blobs everywhere,but now something is gonna happens.The low in CATL looks interesting and the one in CV impressive.

It was impressive as it formed over Sudan and headed westward!!
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
869. RTSplayer
9:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 845. LAbonbon:


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P


No.

Differential Equations are where I get off the boat. That's what killed me at LSU. Although to be honest I probably would be better served if there were a standardized test for Differential Equations.

I still have my text from then. I don't know, I seem to have a mental block on it. I did good on the first test in the class, I think, and then I started flunking and never recovered.

I can do it when I actually have the text and formulas. Well, maybe that doesn't count for much on a college text, but in real life you'd always have access to the formulas, so it's really ridiculous that we weren't allowed to do that in class. I don't think an exam should actually be harder than real life expectations. It's ridiculous.

Did I mention LSU seems to do math curricula backwards? Statistics wasn't even on the curricula until you passed DE, but if there was any logic to it, Statistics would be taken before the Calculus block.



LSU tests are designed individually by the professors, and they're all jackasses or foreigner, who design a test so that if you miss one question you get a C and if you miss two you fail. We didn't get to use any formula sheets in that class either. At least in Calculus 2 we got to use formula sheets.

Anyway, I have about half of a math major now, and I'll probably never complete it in my lifetime. At least I'd need a teacher a hell of a lot better than what I had when I was back at LSU.

I'm at SLU now, but I'm not even sure I'm going to get in for the fall. I sort of last minute enrolled, so I'm just trying to test out of everything I can think of while I wait to see what the Dean(s) are going to let me do.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
868. southernstorm
9:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
We are soaked here in Southern Mississippi also but not complaining. No drought, cloud cover, lower power bills, healthy grass. We will take a tropical storm and let someone else have the next hurricane.
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
867. prcane4you
9:45 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
At last blobs everywhere,but now something is gonna happens.The low in CATL looks interesting and the one in CV impressive.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
866. redwagon
9:43 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
The last paragraph, for anyone who just glanced at it:

THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL ***CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE****...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3255
865. Grothar
9:43 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
By the way, Levi and I have a private joke between us. I always tease him that I will know what the models are going to be, and he always calls me a tease. We've been doing this for about 4 years.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
864. GTstormChaserCaleb
9:42 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
New blog!!!
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8318
863. Patrap
9:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128323
862. DavidHOUTX
9:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

Out of Houston/Galveston


THE EXTENDED SHOWS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE WEATHER
FEATURE THAT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THE LOCAL SCALE
BREEZES. IF ANYTHING...RIDGING TAKES MORE OF A GRIP AND MID-LEVELS
ARE MODELED TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 20S BY THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THESE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...WITH THE NWP SUITE MAINTAINING
LOWERING PRESSURES AND A GREATER THAN 2 INCH PW AIR MASS. CENTRAL
GULF SHEAR REMAINS STOUT (30 KTS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER RIDGES) SO
NOT TOO WORRIED WITH ANY CLOSED-OFF CIRCULATION MOVING TOO FAR
NORTH OF THE BAY. 31
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
861. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
860. wunderweatherman123
9:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 850. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wish people would leave Levi alone, lol. He may have said that a track towards the west was the favored solution, but by no means did he say a track towards the north and eventually northeast into the East Gulf Coast was impossible. Why are we even belittling people based on their opinions, which have been backed up with meteorology, anyways?
what are you leaning towards cods?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
859. Grothar
9:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 842. stormpetrol:


Gro WE getting hammered with rain in Grand cayman right now.



50km radar loop


I see that. A lot of energy down there.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
858. washingtonian115
9:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Border patrol has now taken out extras to stop what ever storm is trying to come north in America.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16977
857. FOREX
9:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


I'm hoping the FL panhandle is out of the woods is this develops.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
856. GTstormChaserCaleb
9:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
The wave out in the Central Atlantic bears some watching too.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8318
855. louisianaboy444
9:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
I just like how when he sees something he sticks to it no matter what..it is all in good fun
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
854. scott39
9:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
My wifes humble pie is hard to swallow at first, but gets better with each bite.
853. Grothar
9:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Considerable bit of energy ahead of 93L.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
852. Tropicsweatherpr
9:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



I agree 100%. This wave may be the one that surprises all as it does not have model support.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
851. louisianaboy444
9:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


Oh don't worry he will find one that agrees with his thinking :P
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
850. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
I wish people would leave Levi alone, lol. He may have said that a track towards the west was the favored solution, but by no means did he say a track towards the north and eventually northeast into the East Gulf Coast was impossible. Why are we even belittling people based on their opinions, which have been backed up with meteorology, anyways?

(Not referring to those who are joking with him about it, referring to the ones who are seriously picking on Levi because of his forecast(s))
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32067
849. Tazmanian
9:36 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 844. wunderkidcayman:


that low thats on the coast is 93L


NO



He's talking about the wave in front of 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
848. weatherlover94
9:36 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
I been looking at everything this evening.....been gone all day.....I see the NHC is saying the usual thing of things not going to be favorable by next week....in both waves in the ATL and Caribbean.....does anybody know why all of the sudden the NHC doesn't think conditions will be favorable ?
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
847. PalmBeachWeather
9:35 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 824. Grothar:


Throw a few wars and an F5 tornado in with those hurricanes and you get close.
Yep......April 3rd, 1974...Xenia Ohio...I guess there war you were speaking of is my ex
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
846. Camille33
9:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.

No suprise this will go into mexico trust me!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
845. LAbonbon
9:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 818. RTSplayer:
Well, I tested out of Statistics on the credit exam. I never took a college statistics class, but I crammed for two days from Cliffs Notes. Half of this stuff I already knew just from other math classes anyway, but about the second half of it is pretty hard to remember every formula and the table you're supposed to use.

It was the hardest math test I've actually passed, just because of the tedious nature of statistics, and trying to remember every formula ever invented. Of course, it is a credit exam with no actual instruction, and only 2 days actually teaching myself what I didn't already know. They didn't give a formula sheet at the test; just scratch paper and a basic calculator.

I actually found mistakes on the test itself. When the computer gave me the option to give feedback, I discussed that issue and the insane time restrictions of just 76 seconds per question.


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
844. wunderkidcayman
9:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



that low thats on the coast is 93L

Quoting 834. mitchelace5:


wunderkidcayman, would that ULL in the CATL become a system as it heads toward FL?


NO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
843. Patrap
9:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
..the wait is almost palatable then.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128323
842. stormpetrol
9:33 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 835. Grothar:
Now that is a blob (Class A) Good call by the NHC.





Gro WE getting hammered with rain in Grand cayman right now.



50km radar loop
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
841. Grothar
9:33 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
840. redwagon
9:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 816. Grothar:
Pressure falling in the Caribbean

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.002N 81.501W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (86°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F


For those of you who missed the marine discussion an hour ago:

Sorry if this was posted already. I may never catch up. [AtHomeinTexas:)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE SE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION
ENTERING THE S CENTRAL GULF BY THU MORNING. DISAGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE WAVE
TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE N DIGS SOUTHWARD.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST 30 KT OF WIND IN THE NE GULF ON THE SE
SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THE REMAINDER OF GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE CMC...TAKES THE WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SW GULF/BAY OF
CAMPECHE...PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3255
839. TimSoCal
9:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
18z GFS initializing 93L at 1010mb.

Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
838. Kyon5
9:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

Quoting 821. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at the low with 93L at 18z analysis how it goes WSW.

If it manages to move farther south, then it might have a much better chance of getting stronger.
Member Since: July 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
837. Patrap
9:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Is it a Blue Blood Blob, or just us regla folk type ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128323
836. GetReal
9:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 826. Patrap:


It does appear Pat that 92L is feeling those extremely warm SST in the area...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
835. Grothar
9:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Now that is a blob (Class A) Good call by the NHC.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
834. mitchelace5
9:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 828. wunderkidcayman:

the small vort just E of that has increase a good amount as well


wunderkidcayman, would that ULL in the CATL become a system as it heads toward FL?

Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
833. kmanislander
9:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 821. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at the low with 93L at 18z analysis how it goes WSW.



Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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